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Diane Swonk

@dianeswonk.bsky.social
9.2K followers 392 following 1.8K posts

Chief Economist, KPMG, opinions my own

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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The inflation we are enduring represents one long collision of demand and supply shocks, which includes the service sector. The rise in healthcare costs is better captured by the PCE index of inflation than the CPI. It also better captures tradeoffs consumers make in their spending decisions.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
My take on the Fed and the hike today. Brace for a rate hiking cycle. Not as convinced we will achieve an elusive soft landing. www.linkedin.com/posts/dianes...
linkedin.com
Warsh asserts Fed’s independence | Diane Swonk | 18 comments
The Fed launched a new rate-hiking cycle with a unanimous quarter-point increase to 3.75%–4%. Inflation is too high and too persistent to ignore, while resilient demand and a solid labor market give p...
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
🔥CPI inflation jumped 0.4% and held at a 3.4% gain from a year ago. Core CPI, which exclude food & energy, rose a hotter than expected 0.3%. The gains were heavily in services, a problem for the Fed. The super core services rose a wicked hot 0.5% and were up 3% from a year ago.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
9/11: The nightmares returned this year after a long period of calm. A friend and former colleague, John Howell, helped make the memorial below in Charlotte happen. The FF Steven Coakley Foundation put it together. We met years later and discovered he was across the street as I was in the...
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
9/11: The nightmares returned this year after a long period of calm. A friend and former colleague, John Howell, helped make the memorial below in Charlotte happen. The FF Steven Coakley Foundation put it together. We met years later and discovered he was across the street as I was in the...
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Took my inspiration from Irish poet Yeats this month. “The Second Coming” written in 1919. Promise a cute picture of a child eating a donut if you make it to the end. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com
The donut economy
Growth holds, but the center hollows out.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The producer price index jumped 0.4% in August on higher energy prices, in-line with expectations. That is prior to the recent surge in oil and seems somewhat stale. What is more worrisome is where the price hikes were. They were heavily in diesel and heating fuel.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Houston, we have a problem…shocks are becoming the norm. Repetition builds muscle memory for inflation. We are more than five years into the current bout of inflation. It is hitting prices and demand with exception of data centers & the affluent. Corrosive & destabilizing.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
My take on Fed Chair Warsh speech. His disdain for forward guidance was overwhelmed by a need to underscore Fed independence & persistence of inflation. Markets filled in the void in his remarks by ⬆️ September rate hike odds. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com
Warsh speaks, markets infer
No hand-holding.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Data deluge - Fed on the defensive The Fed’s PCE inflation gage still too hot, with underlying service sector inflation holding at nearly double it 2% target in July. A September rate hike is on the table and rising in probability. We still expect two rate hikes by year-end.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
My take on Treasury interventions & the challenge Fed Chairman Warsh face going into privotal week that culminates with Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Symposium. lnkd.in/p/gAERRtHS
lnkd.in
Markets listen to promises; they price proof This week’s bond market rout was not about one data point or one speech. It was about trust and the mounting cost of losing it. The timing is either… | D...
Markets listen to promises; they price proof This week’s bond market rout was not about one data point or one speech. It was about trust and the mounting cost of losing it. The timing is either sere...
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Humbled to be inducted into the Chicago Innovation Hall of Fame at their 25th Gala. I addressed innovation, what is means personoally & professionally. I hope some of the themes resonate. vimeo.com/1218358118/5...
vimeo.com
Diane Swonk - Chicago Innovation Hall of Fame Speech
This is "Diane Swonk - Chicago Innovation Hall of Fame Speech" by TV House on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos and the people who love them.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Tariffs are starting to ramp back up - inflation effects initially small but complicated by bureaucracy. Most companies who were able to get refunds did not drop prices. The exception was some rollback in mostly grocery prices but starting to see other reports of discounting.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Retail sales drop 0.6%. Still up 5% y/y July, which is more than inflation but weaker than 6.8% y/y in June. Weakness largest in motor vehicles -June was highest selling rate in 9 months. Sales still elevated relative to earlier in the year. Online specials in pulled e-commerce into June vs July.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I am getting a lot of questions about why the Fed Hawks seem so intent & even panicked about inflation & raising rates NOW. The answer is multifaceted but ultimately lands on Fed credibility and the fear of repeating mistakes of the past.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Today’s PPI data, which was unchanged in July, look calmer in the surface than they are for the Fed’s preferred measure of the PCE index. We are still missing import prices to calculate the data but here is what I am getting.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I was honored to be inducted into the Chicago Innovation Foundation Hall of Fame. Here is a copy of my speech - my dad taught me about innovation and being a rebel with a cause. I hope you see hope in it. acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:...
My award was given to me by the unstoppable Hedy Ratner, who is a personal inspiration. Thank you to Chicago Innovation and the brilliant minds honored with me and in the last 25 years and for all you do to help lift the wings of kids and make Chicago so special to me.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Sticky inflation is stuck. ⬇️
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Inflation in July didn’t cool enough to calm Fed hawks The CPI rose 0.1% in July, and was up 3.4% from a yr ago. The relief could be short-lived given the rebound in oil prices. Brace for more increases in at the gas pump in August. Diesel fuels is way up, which has spillover effects. 
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
A reminder that tariff uncertainty is still with us. Our trade and customs team is getting an influx of calls on whether the section 338 50% tariffs imposed by the administration on about $24 billion in Canadian imports will go into effect as scheduled next week.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Here is a direct link the turbulence Chairman Kevin Warsh faces as he goes into the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech later this month. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com
Prince or prisoner?
Warsh gets the crown, markets get the gavel.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
This month’s take on the tensions building in the outlook and regarding the Fed Chairman’s speech at @kansascityfed.bsky.social Jackson Hole Symposium speech. Stakes are high. lnkd.in/p/gNAzqS4Y
lnkd.in
Prince or Prisoner? | Diane Swonk
I have never seen anything like this. Nor has the Fed. Inflation is still too hot, labor markets are cooling beneath the surface, but unemployment is falling. A new Fed chair is stepping into one of ...
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
My take on a craxy day for employment www.linkedin.com/posts/dianes...
linkedin.com
The July employment report was a gut punch. Hiring stalled, public-sector payrolls fell, and the labor force shrank again. The headline unemployment rate improved, but for the wrong reason: fewer… | D...
The July employment report was a gut punch. Hiring stalled, public-sector payrolls fell, and the labor force shrank again. The headline unemployment rate improved, but for the wrong reason: fewer peop...
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
“Mr. Kashkari, who said in his own statement that “to manage against the risk that high inflation could become entrenched, he would “rather tighten policy incrementally" as he gathered more data on the trajectory of the economy.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Cleveland Fed President adds more color to her vote to dissent in another LinkedIn post. She did not find the current policy rate restrictive - meaning it should be higher just to hold inflation constant, let alone bring it down. This is a growing debate and sentiment in the Fed.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
My take on GDP, which shows domeatic demand robust, trade deficit wide and inflation still simmering. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com
Consumers & AI drive growth; trade gap widens
Inflation still running hot.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Less than ideal headline for a new Fed Chairman from CNBC
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
My take on the three Fed dissents. Inflation is becoming a norm, not an anomaly. That is a problem for the Federal Reserve. Warsh has argued it is a choice - time to choose to derail it. www.linkedin.com/pulse/warshs...
linkedin.com
Warsh’s short-lived honeymoon
Three dissents at his second meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the policy-setting arm of the Federal Reserve – voted to hold interest rates unchanged in July.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
I talked with Jeremy Hobson and David Brown from The Middle about inflation, inequality and why the concentration of wealth is adding to inflation even as most consumers are struggling. Heart-wrenching trade-offs people making at grocery store, on whether they can keep their pets & medical tests. 💔
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Inflation is still too hot, supply shocks are multiplying and the politics around the Fed are getting louder. Kevin Warsh may want to channel Greenspan — shorter statements, fewer clues and less dissent — but this is not the 1990s. Tariffs, war, AI and fiscal stimulus…
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Many people miss the hits to refined petroleum products due to Russia/Ukraine war. @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social watching closely. Thank you.
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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
watch out: "Ukrainian forces struck the oil refinery in Yaroslavl, northeast of Moscow, on Thursday, as drone attacks deepen fuel shortages across Russia." this is a pretty large refinery hit- 300,000bpd- further a reason why oil and refined product prices have disconnected
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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
how much spot/wholesale gasoline prices are up since Monday- bottom line retail prices have a lot of catching up to do: Gulf Coast +30c/gal New York Harbor+39c/gal Plains/Rockies +30c/gal Great Lakes +29c/gal Pac NW +42c/gal NorCal +48c/gal SoCal +46c/gal
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Worrisome.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
“.. Diesel crack spreads are now higher than the price of crude itself. - WTI: $80 -Diesel crack spread (refining margin): $86 “.. Since the start of the war, diesel crack spreads have surged > 4x ..” - Ekwuwme
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
🔥The calculation that is coalescing hawks at the Fed and set the stage for dissents with a further pause in July are the inputs to the PCE index for June. Keep in mind that the Fed targets this at 2%. Those inputs leave us with a much hotter inflation scenario than was suggested by the CPI data.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Important post by Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed. The core ranks of hawks within the Fed leadership is growing and hardening their position on rate hikes. The persistence of inflation outside of the oil shock is the reason. Those who worry the Fed went too far in cuts in late 2025 is rising.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
🥶 one win at a time. Today’s CPI report revealed a welcome cooling trend that went well beyond the price of oil and showed the cool down was more broad based. It showed up in insurance costs, especially for vehicles which held the line on prices. Shelter costs got a break as well.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Yep & USMCA now under annual review and tariffs designed to recoup revenues lost to Supreme Court Ruling hit again in August, reinforcing upward impulse on the tariffs already enacted but not passed along. The sequencing of tariffs mimics inflation and further unmoors inflation expectations.
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Took my inspiration for my annual structural change watchlist from Ancient Greek mythology & the story of Sisyphus who was condemned to roll a boulder uphill for eternity. We are in a world where each inch of growth is harder to attain, buffers should the economy stumbled are thin & elevated…
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Payrolls slow, unemployment lower for wrong reasons Non-farm payrolls rose by 57K in June, their weakest gain since February. Data for the last two months was revised down. Public sector payrolls expanded modestly, but the largest gain was in May.
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Karen Nye @knyeecon.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
This Thursday, at the CBOE in Chicago, CNBC's The Exchange will be broadcasting live. @KPMG_US chief economist @dianeswonk.bsky.social will be joining @kellycnbc22.bsky.social and Brian Sullivan to share her analysis of PCE and the economic outlook.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
My take on consumer spending & inflation. Brace for a hot & sticky summer, even as prices at the gas pump cool. I explain the lags in that as well. The economy is accelerating. Those gains mask underlying burn most are feeling. Fed poised to hike rates. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com
Consumers spend through higher prices at the pump
Consumer electronics prices are rising.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Life is nonlinear and at times messy. Failure doesn’t define you; coping with and learning from them does. Here is a podcast that I did with CEO of the Chicago Network, Maria Doughty. www.buzzsprout.com/1984234/epis...
buzzsprout.com
Diane Swonk: How a Latchkey Kid Became One of the Nation's Go-To Economists - HerStories
If you've been watching recent coverage on the U.S. economy on just about any major TV network, you'll have seen Diane Swonk offering her take on inflation during the war with Iran. In this episode, K...
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Hawks flock at Fed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scored a win with a shorter statement, which ended with the Fed’s commitment to restore price stability. He said only one person discussed a cut and even though he did not want to commit to forward guidance, the shift on the committee is clear.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
🔥producer prices came in hot, again in May. Together with the CPI, the imply an increase in the PCE of 0.5% on total and 0.3% on core. That would boost the PCE to an annual increase of 4.2% in May, which easier year on year comps, especially in energy buoying those gains.
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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
I turned to actor Peter Sellers’ character in the movie Being There for my inspiration this month. He was a simple gardener catapulted to fame as by the economic & political elite who heard what they wanted to hear in his literal explanations of the four seasons & how a garden grows.
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