Reposted by Jonathan ToddBill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16hGoldman “Based on details in the CPI report, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in September (vs. our expectation of 0.20% before the CPI release), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.09%” Ouch 0274
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17hGood day to post given some pretty brutal stock performances today ($CRWV, $ORCL, etc)... It’s not just "Mag 7 vs the 493," it's just as much about the market's ruthless sorting mechanism dictated by the cost of capital yontodd.substack.com/p/the-one-tr...yontodd.substack.comThe one-trick economy: Cembalest’s 42-stock mirage and the real capital divideWhy Michael Cembalest’s 42-stock concentration data isn’t a 1999 bubble—it’s a capital sorting machine that ends when grid bottlenecks cool benchmark rates. 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 20hPost-CPI, Fed rate path basically just reverting to where it was 3 weeks ago 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026All very relevant, important topics for an aspiring CEO 040
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026The Winklevoss' $GEMI upgraded at Citi... I would say I don't think I realized its down ~91% from its ATH (on it's first day of trading!), but I probably haven't thought about this company since the day of its IPO either 011
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 12/10/2026substack.com/@stayathomem...substack.comHand the pen to the CommitteeThe Fed’s main reason for raising rates took three weeks to reach the public. The statement should carry it on decision day. 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 12/10/2026The gap between the market year-end 2027 pricing (4.685%) vs SEP (4.125%) still a problem. Warsh's minimum communications strategy makes that a big risk overhang... 200
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/10/2026Love my Lightning, that thing better last literally forever 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/10/2026And actual economic life proving longer than expected (Amazon said that recently, a16z showed that with their rental price chart) 110
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/10/2026Sorry, just to clarify… you're arguing the effective return drops below the coupon because rapid depreciation and falling token costs squeeze late-cycle cash flows? Token pricing compressing, but with a 25% base IRR against an 8% coupon, there's a wide MoE before debt service actually underwater 100
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026Read the Ahamed, it was excellent, basically went cover to cover on a long flight. Currently reading the Wigglesworth, also excellent so far… A standout year for finance books, really 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026static.klipy.comThe Simpsons: Stop, He's Already Dead MemeALT: The Simpsons: Stop, He's Already Dead Meme 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026“In 2010, every member of the Forbes 400 was wealthy enough to have bought Liverpool Football Club for less than half their net worth. Today, despite the enormous increase in global wealth over the intervening period, just 88 of them could do the same.“ 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026I’d like to see this chart ex-NVDA, but I would guess it’s still directionally correct 100
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026Compute demand isn’t slowing, and 8% borrowing costs aren't the problem when GPU projects generate 25% IRRs. The real vulnerability is token price deflation squeezing cash flows while carrying high single-digit coupons. substack.com/@yontodd/not...substack.comAI can afford 8% money. Uncle Sam cannot.High single-digit coupons on AI is resetting the global price of capital and leaving the rest of the bond market to pick up the tab. 210
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBrent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 09/10/2026“The city’s transition away from the car, tho fantastically chaotic, has become a global role model. Under mayor Anne Hidalgo, Paris was ‘the most influential city in the world’ says Canadian urbanist Brent Toderian. Hidalgo, stepping down after 12 yrs, exulted: ‘The bike beat the car.’” #Parisft.comHow Paris beat the carThough chaotic, the city’s transition has become a global role model 3318111
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/10/2026*Another* Cook investigation www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/f...cnbc.comTrump appoints committee to investigate statements by the Fed's Lisa Cook 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/10/2026October Michigan Current Conditions index of 44.7 lowest in series history - survey started in 1951 www.sca.isr.umich.edusca.isr.umich.edu Surveys of Consumers 000
Reposted by Jonathan ToddKatie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 09/10/2026Snippet here from George Saravelos at Deutsche. I agree fwiw. If France gets really bad, Europe will fudge a firebreak. If the AI trade implodes, we're kinda screwed. 117817
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 08/10/2026Et voilà, that's probably my one and only defense of OpenAI in my life 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 08/10/2026Thinking through the Open AI FT report, I’m not 100% convinced it’s a demand issue. OpenAI share stable on Openrouter. I think it’s just price cuts -though tbh I’m not sure that’s any better than a demand issue but interesting context to consider... www.ft.com/content/b66a... 110
Reposted by Jonathan ToddGrant Brisbee @grantbrisbee.bsky.social · 07/10/2026the hell they can, three straight yamamoto splitters and khamenei's back in the dugout before he knows what happened 11575115
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 07/10/2026From The Athletic MLB newsletter: "If the White Sox win either Games 3 or 4 at Rate Field, they will clinch a series at home for the first time since … 1906! That was when Doc White outpitched Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown and the Cubs to win 8-3 and clinch the World Series in six." 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 07/10/2026"Muse, the popular new AI personal assistant from Meta, is building continuously updated dossiers on its 4 million users The level of insight in the resulting dossiers makes social-media algorithms that study your likes and clicks look quaint" time.com/article/2026...time.comMeta’s Muse AI Agent Is Building a Dossier On YouInternal instructions reviewed by TIME show the AI assistant mapping users and their contacts—including people who don’t use Muse—and sharing anonymized insights across its system. 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 06/10/2026Just because there are actually numbers to such things... Crime levels are lower in Chicago on a 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 4Y basis 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddJordan Novet @jordannovet.cnbc.com · 05/10/2026"More than two-thirds of groups on the Russell 1000 index of large US groups are linked to AI, either directly or because the technology is becoming embedded in their business models, according to Citigroup research." www.ft.com/content/3302...ft.comHome - Financial TimesNews, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics 022
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBlock Club Chicago @blockclubchi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026The CTA has unveiled a 1950s neon-style sign at a revamped Blue Line stop. buff.ly/5Ifslf9 965794
Reposted by Jonathan ToddMolly Knight @mollyknight.bsky.social · 04/10/2026He somehow managed to spike opponents with his cleats and ALSO not run out ground balls in the World Series. Incredible bit. 2781
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 04/10/2026Put together some thoughts on AI/capex, the recent shift to off-balance sheet, and why it's (probably? maybe?) not the same as the pre-GFC financial gymnastics yontodd.substack.com/p/gpu-monoli...yontodd.substack.comThe GPU monoline: How $3T in off-balance-sheet AI debt is rewriting Big Tech creditAmazon’s $8B SPV and Broadcom’s $60B debt package reveal the AI buildout has outgrown retained earnings. Why the real risk isn't a 2008-style bust, but a structural blow-out in credit dispersion. 030
Reposted by Jonathan ToddJames Ball @jamesrball.com · 02/10/2026Great way to demonstrate the club isn't state owned and is a totally independent business, honest. 231461
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 02/10/2026This is fine etc etc $PSKY $ORCL www.ft.com/content/2c56... 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026“What a chart.” - Bespoke 1317139
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 01/10/2026"I just got a tariff from Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham, first time in 50 years." 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 01/10/2026Forget "I don't blame you, Kevin," the "This just happened?" is the best quote on Trump/Fed bit time.com/article/2026... 110
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026Regardless... Some wild data out this week on how extreme this skew has become: - ~45% of S&P 500 stocks have a negative beta to the index - Top-heavy skew is breaking standard portfolio hedges - How buying SPX puts is like buying insurance on the Dodgers yontodd.substack.com/p/sp500-nega...yontodd.substack.comThe diversification illusion: 45% of the S&P 500 now has negative beta - and the index hedge is brokenRoughly 45% of S&P 500 stocks now move inversely to the index. Why cap-weighted tech skews the market like MLB payrolls, and why index hedging is broken. 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026I know I should be writing about rates and serious macro things, but I took some liberties and compared the market’s crap breadth with how MLB has worked in recent years The main takeaway is clearly that if you don’t like the Dodgers, you probably don’t like resilient equity portfolios 100
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026Net exports, consumer spending a bigger than expected drag on growth... Atlanta Fed GDPNow down from 5.0% to 3.7% www.atlantafed.org/research-and... 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddRuo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026tracking human-human interaction is becoming increasingly important 171
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBarry Butler Photography @barrybutler9.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Fire on Friday. Today's sunrise over the Chicago skyline. 544779
Reposted by Jonathan Toddbendwalsh.bsky.social @bendwalsh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026an ex-Chelsea owner enmeshed in the Russian oil industry?! 2339
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 23/09/2026$FUN -45% since Travis Kelce got involved www.wsj.com/business/dea... 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 21/09/2026Correct. Similarly, this was probably my favorite read from the weekend. www.newyorker.com/culture/the-...newyorker.comShould the Classroom Be More Like the Gym?As A.I. presses harder on the academic enterprise, we might look to a place where process is its own reward. 041