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Jonathan Todd

@yontodd.substack.com
2.5K followers 505 following 919 posts

📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (all opinions here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, but always very Californian. yontodd.substack.com

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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16h
Goldman “Based on details in the CPI report, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in September (vs. our expectation of 0.20% before the CPI release), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.09%” Ouch
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17h
Good day to post given some pretty brutal stock performances today ($CRWV, $ORCL, etc)... It’s not just "Mag 7 vs the 493," it's just as much about the market's ruthless sorting mechanism dictated by the cost of capital yontodd.substack.com/p/the-one-tr...
yontodd.substack.com
The one-trick economy: Cembalest’s 42-stock mirage and the real capital divide
Why Michael Cembalest’s 42-stock concentration data isn’t a 1999 bubble—it’s a capital sorting machine that ends when grid bottlenecks cool benchmark rates.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 20h
Post-CPI, Fed rate path basically just reverting to where it was 3 weeks ago
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026
They ruined it even trying to pull into Readwise
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026
All very relevant, important topics for an aspiring CEO
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026
The Winklevoss' $GEMI upgraded at Citi... I would say I don't think I realized its down ~91% from its ATH (on it's first day of trading!), but I probably haven't thought about this company since the day of its IPO either
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 12/10/2026
substack.com/@stayathomem...
substack.com
Hand the pen to the Committee
The Fed’s main reason for raising rates took three weeks to reach the public. The statement should carry it on decision day.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 12/10/2026
The gap between the market year-end 2027 pricing (4.685%) vs SEP (4.125%) still a problem. Warsh's minimum communications strategy makes that a big risk overhang...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/10/2026
Love my Lightning, that thing better last literally forever
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/10/2026
And actual economic life proving longer than expected (Amazon said that recently, a16z showed that with their rental price chart)
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/10/2026
Sorry, just to clarify… you're arguing the effective return drops below the coupon because rapid depreciation and falling token costs squeeze late-cycle cash flows? Token pricing compressing, but with a 25% base IRR against an 8% coupon, there's a wide MoE before debt service actually underwater
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026
Read the Ahamed, it was excellent, basically went cover to cover on a long flight. Currently reading the Wigglesworth, also excellent so far… A standout year for finance books, really
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026
static.klipy.com
The Simpsons: Stop, He's Already Dead Meme
ALT: The Simpsons: Stop, He's Already Dead Meme
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026
“In 2010, every member of the Forbes 400 was wealthy enough to have bought Liverpool Football Club for less than half their net worth. Today, despite the enormous increase in global wealth over the intervening period, just 88 of them could do the same.“
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026
literally the other side of the Leopold trade!
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026
I’d like to see this chart ex-NVDA, but I would guess it’s still directionally correct
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026
On the other hand… bsky.app/profile/carl...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026
Compute demand isn’t slowing, and 8% borrowing costs aren't the problem when GPU projects generate 25% IRRs. The real vulnerability is token price deflation squeezing cash flows while carrying high single-digit coupons. substack.com/@yontodd/not...
substack.com
AI can afford 8% money. Uncle Sam cannot.
High single-digit coupons on AI is resetting the global price of capital and leaving the rest of the bond market to pick up the tab.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026
Apparently the break has been good for Chelsea…
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
“The city’s transition away from the car, tho fantastically chaotic, has become a global role model. Under mayor Anne Hidalgo, Paris was ‘the most influential city in the world’ says Canadian urbanist Brent Toderian. Hidalgo, stepping down after 12 yrs, exulted: ‘The bike beat the car.’” #Paris
ft.com
How Paris beat the car
Though chaotic, the city’s transition has become a global role model
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/10/2026
Michigan Current Conditions in chart form
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/10/2026
*Another* Cook investigation www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/f...
cnbc.com
Trump appoints committee to investigate statements by the Fed's Lisa Cook
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/10/2026
October Michigan Current Conditions index of 44.7 lowest in series history - survey started in 1951 www.sca.isr.umich.edu
sca.isr.umich.edu
Surveys of Consumers
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 09/10/2026
Snippet here from George Saravelos at Deutsche. I agree fwiw. If France gets really bad, Europe will fudge a firebreak. If the AI trade implodes, we're kinda screwed.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 08/10/2026
Et voilà, that's probably my one and only defense of OpenAI in my life
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 08/10/2026
Thinking through the Open AI FT report, I’m not 100% convinced it’s a demand issue. OpenAI share stable on Openrouter. I think it’s just price cuts -though tbh I’m not sure that’s any better than a demand issue but interesting context to consider... www.ft.com/content/b66a...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 08/10/2026
$META chart since August
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Grant Brisbee @grantbrisbee.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
the hell they can, three straight yamamoto splitters and khamenei's back in the dugout before he knows what happened
Trending

1. Trump says Iran could hit Los Angeles
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 07/10/2026
From The Athletic MLB newsletter: "If the White Sox win either Games 3 or 4 at Rate Field, they will clinch a series at home for the first time since … 1906! That was when Doc White outpitched Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown and the Cubs to win 8-3 and clinch the World Series in six."
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 07/10/2026
"Muse, the popular new AI personal assistant from Meta, is building continuously updated dossiers on its 4 million users The level of insight in the resulting dossiers makes social-media algorithms that study your likes and clicks look quaint" time.com/article/2026...
time.com
Meta’s Muse AI Agent Is Building a Dossier On You
Internal instructions reviewed by TIME show the AI assistant mapping users and their contacts—including people who don’t use Muse—and sharing anonymized insights across its system.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 06/10/2026
Just because there are actually numbers to such things... Crime levels are lower in Chicago on a 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 4Y basis
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Jordan Novet @jordannovet.cnbc.com · 05/10/2026
"More than two-thirds of groups on the Russell 1000 index of large US groups are linked to AI, either directly or because the technology is becoming embedded in their business models, according to Citigroup research." www.ft.com/content/3302...
ft.com
Home - Financial Times
News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Block Club Chicago @blockclubchi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The CTA has unveiled a 1950s neon-style sign at a revamped Blue Line stop. buff.ly/5Ifslf9
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 05/10/2026
Beach House?!
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Molly Knight @mollyknight.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
He somehow managed to spike opponents with his cleats and ALSO not run out ground balls in the World Series. Incredible bit.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 04/10/2026
Put together some thoughts on AI/capex, the recent shift to off-balance sheet, and why it's (probably? maybe?) not the same as the pre-GFC financial gymnastics yontodd.substack.com/p/gpu-monoli...
yontodd.substack.com
The GPU monoline: How $3T in off-balance-sheet AI debt is rewriting Big Tech credit
Amazon’s $8B SPV and Broadcom’s $60B debt package reveal the AI buildout has outgrown retained earnings. Why the real risk isn't a 2008-style bust, but a structural blow-out in credit dispersion.
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
James Ball @jamesrball.com · 02/10/2026
Great way to demonstrate the club isn't state owned and is a totally independent business, honest.
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Brentreé
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 02/10/2026
This is fine etc etc $PSKY $ORCL www.ft.com/content/2c56...
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
“What a chart.” - Bespoke
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 01/10/2026
"I just got a tariff from Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham, first time in 50 years."
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 01/10/2026
Forget "I don't blame you, Kevin," the "This just happened?" is the best quote on Trump/Fed bit time.com/article/2026...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026
Regardless... Some wild data out this week on how extreme this skew has become: - ~45% of S&P 500 stocks have a negative beta to the index - Top-heavy skew is breaking standard portfolio hedges - How buying SPX puts is like buying insurance on the Dodgers yontodd.substack.com/p/sp500-nega...
yontodd.substack.com
The diversification illusion: 45% of the S&P 500 now has negative beta - and the index hedge is broken
Roughly 45% of S&P 500 stocks now move inversely to the index. Why cap-weighted tech skews the market like MLB payrolls, and why index hedging is broken.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026
I know I should be writing about rates and serious macro things, but I took some liberties and compared the market’s crap breadth with how MLB has worked in recent years The main takeaway is clearly that if you don’t like the Dodgers, you probably don’t like resilient equity portfolios
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026
Net exports, consumer spending a bigger than expected drag on growth... Atlanta Fed GDPNow down from 5.0% to 3.7% www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
tracking human-human interaction is becoming increasingly important
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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Barry Butler Photography @barrybutler9.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Fire on Friday. Today's sunrise over the Chicago skyline.
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bendwalsh.bsky.social @bendwalsh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
an ex-Chelsea owner enmeshed in the Russian oil industry?!
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 23/09/2026
$FUN -45% since Travis Kelce got involved www.wsj.com/business/dea...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 21/09/2026
Correct. Similarly, this was probably my favorite read from the weekend. www.newyorker.com/culture/the-...
newyorker.com
Should the Classroom Be More Like the Gym?
As A.I. presses harder on the academic enterprise, we might look to a place where process is its own reward.
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