iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 15h

Post-CPI, Fed rate path basically just reverting to where it was 3 weeks ago

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026

They ruined it even trying to pull into Readwise

000

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026

All very relevant, important topics for an aspiring CEO

040

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026

The Winklevoss' $GEMI upgraded at Citi... I would say I don't think I realized its down ~91% from its ATH (on it's first day of trading!), but I probably haven't thought about this company since the day of its IPO either

011

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 12/10/2026

The gap between the market year-end 2027 pricing (4.685%) vs SEP (4.125%) still a problem. Warsh's minimum communications strategy makes that a big risk overhang...

200

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/10/2026

And actual economic life proving longer than expected (Amazon said that recently, a16z showed that with their rental price chart)

110

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/10/2026

Michigan Current Conditions in chart form

000

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 08/10/2026

Thinking through the Open AI FT report, I’m not 100% convinced it’s a demand issue. OpenAI share stable on Openrouter. I think it’s just price cuts -though tbh I’m not sure that’s any better than a demand issue but interesting context to consider... www.ft.com/content/b66a...

110

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 06/10/2026

Just because there are actually numbers to such things... Crime levels are lower in Chicago on a 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 4Y basis

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 02/10/2026

This is fine etc etc $PSKY $ORCL www.ft.com/content/2c56...

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 01/10/2026

"I just got a tariff from Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham, first time in 50 years."

000

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 01/10/2026

Forget "I don't blame you, Kevin," the "This just happened?" is the best quote on Trump/Fed bit time.com/article/2026...

110

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026

I know I should be writing about rates and serious macro things, but I took some liberties and compared the market’s crap breadth with how MLB has worked in recent years The main takeaway is clearly that if you don’t like the Dodgers, you probably don’t like resilient equity portfolios

100

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026

Net exports, consumer spending a bigger than expected drag on growth... Atlanta Fed GDPNow down from 5.0% to 3.7% www.atlantafed.org/research-and...

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 23/09/2026

$FUN -45% since Travis Kelce got involved www.wsj.com/business/dea...

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 18/09/2026

From today's Athletic FC newsletter... "'I want to reclaim the flag for us,' Klopp said. 'I don’t want to leave national pride to the wrong people.' If any coach is tailor-made for that mission, it’s him."

15311

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 18/09/2026

I'm going to take issue with this article though - St. Catharines is decidedly not in between Hamilton and Toronto

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17/09/2026

wild -- Lennar has cut new home ASPs by ~30% since 2022, from $511K to $359K Good thread from over there x.com/nickgerli1/s...

021

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 16/09/2026

Stephen Moore on the TV, the pride of... New Trier HS?

000

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 16/09/2026

Yep same. Out here scenario planing in extremis

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 15/09/2026

75% of investors say Treasury bond buybacks either do nothing or push yields higher -- from BofA FMS

021

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/09/2026

"The new private buyers pay far more attention to yield and have to be offered higher and higher rates to absorb the growing Treasury supply." www.ft.com/content/a441...

000

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/09/2026

30Y was 5.34% on 18-Aug, the day before the Treasury buyback announcement Now: 5.30%

000

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 02/09/2026

Maybe they're right, I haven't spoken to my kids since they turned 5

020

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 02/09/2026

Today in Championship football: - The team with American owners vs the team with American/Canadian co-owners - The team with American owners vs the team with a bunch of Americans

000

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 28/08/2026

2/10 spread basically unchanged over the past year too, which suggests to me no acceleration in growth outlook, which would lead to a curve steepening move

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 28/08/2026

I'd argue that if growth were actually rising, you'd see a narrowing of that second line (the difference between nominal and inflation adjusted). But we haven't - and at the same time, actual growth has fallen. Which makes me assume it's something else (crowding out, debt/deficit fears, etc).

100

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/08/2026

I build a lot of data pipelines and dashboards... For example, I connected it to a data source to pull Fed Funds futures data hourly, then calculate the rate path. It then updates a local dashboard I keep running at all times (and send push notifications via Teams, Telegram)

250

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/08/2026

"⁠⁠The skill of deep thinking will likely become rarer and rarer..." www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...

031

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 01/08/2026

tbh kind of surprised this "Powell out by December 31" isn't down even more polymarket.com/event/jerome...

020

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 28/07/2026

The era that shaped me the most/I'm most nostalgic for can pretty much be summed up with "When were the Strokes, TV on the Radio, and Beach House at their peak"

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17/07/2026

Rotten Tomatoes (29%) says it grossed $7.3M, so I'm like 1 of 39 people who can make this claim www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bones

100

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17/07/2026

$DJT up ~10% from its low on, uh, renewed revenue optimism

010

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17/07/2026

Retiring my Duolingo streak learning French at 1,622 (started 6-Feb-22). Probably should have done this 2+ years ago, as there are significantly better/more efficient ways to learn. A good way to start and make sure you're committed to learning, but not as helpful beyond that...

000

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 16/07/2026

I think just by definition it's slower to hit the website than the API. This Google page speed test shows ~2.4 seconds for a new piece of info to hit the Trump Truth Social page vs. (I'd estimate) 100-200 ms to hit via the API. A lifetime for an algo... pagespeed.web.dev/analysis/htt...

200

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 16/07/2026

Does this infer Trump posts via the website are *not* real-time?

100

Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/07/2026

Also... First, Harold's should be *the* food item that visitors to Chicago try, not italian beef, sausage, etc. Second, it should be from one of these locations - definitely not West Loop or Wicker Park