Reposted by Jonathan ToddBill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 10hGoldman “Based on details in the CPI report, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in September (vs. our expectation of 0.20% before the CPI release), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.09%” Ouch 0263
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11hGood day to post given some pretty brutal stock performances today ($CRWV, $ORCL, etc)... It’s not just "Mag 7 vs the 493," it's just as much about the market's ruthless sorting mechanism dictated by the cost of capital yontodd.substack.com/p/the-one-tr...yontodd.substack.comThe one-trick economy: Cembalest’s 42-stock mirage and the real capital divideWhy Michael Cembalest’s 42-stock concentration data isn’t a 1999 bubble—it’s a capital sorting machine that ends when grid bottlenecks cool benchmark rates. 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 14hPost-CPI, Fed rate path basically just reverting to where it was 3 weeks ago 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 13/10/2026The Winklevoss' $GEMI upgraded at Citi... I would say I don't think I realized its down ~91% from its ATH (on it's first day of trading!), but I probably haven't thought about this company since the day of its IPO either 011
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 12/10/2026The gap between the market year-end 2027 pricing (4.685%) vs SEP (4.125%) still a problem. Warsh's minimum communications strategy makes that a big risk overhang... 200
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 11/10/2026Love my Lightning, that thing better last literally forever 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026static.klipy.comThe Simpsons: Stop, He's Already Dead MemeALT: The Simpsons: Stop, He's Already Dead Meme 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026“In 2010, every member of the Forbes 400 was wealthy enough to have bought Liverpool Football Club for less than half their net worth. Today, despite the enormous increase in global wealth over the intervening period, just 88 of them could do the same.“ 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/10/2026Compute demand isn’t slowing, and 8% borrowing costs aren't the problem when GPU projects generate 25% IRRs. The real vulnerability is token price deflation squeezing cash flows while carrying high single-digit coupons. substack.com/@yontodd/not...substack.comAI can afford 8% money. Uncle Sam cannot.High single-digit coupons on AI is resetting the global price of capital and leaving the rest of the bond market to pick up the tab. 210
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBrent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 09/10/2026“The city’s transition away from the car, tho fantastically chaotic, has become a global role model. Under mayor Anne Hidalgo, Paris was ‘the most influential city in the world’ says Canadian urbanist Brent Toderian. Hidalgo, stepping down after 12 yrs, exulted: ‘The bike beat the car.’” #Parisft.comHow Paris beat the carThough chaotic, the city’s transition has become a global role model 3318111
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/10/2026*Another* Cook investigation www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/f...cnbc.comTrump appoints committee to investigate statements by the Fed's Lisa Cook 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 09/10/2026October Michigan Current Conditions index of 44.7 lowest in series history - survey started in 1951 www.sca.isr.umich.edusca.isr.umich.edu Surveys of Consumers 000
Reposted by Jonathan ToddKatie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 09/10/2026Snippet here from George Saravelos at Deutsche. I agree fwiw. If France gets really bad, Europe will fudge a firebreak. If the AI trade implodes, we're kinda screwed. 117817
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 08/10/2026Thinking through the Open AI FT report, I’m not 100% convinced it’s a demand issue. OpenAI share stable on Openrouter. I think it’s just price cuts -though tbh I’m not sure that’s any better than a demand issue but interesting context to consider... www.ft.com/content/b66a... 110
Reposted by Jonathan ToddGrant Brisbee @grantbrisbee.bsky.social · 07/10/2026the hell they can, three straight yamamoto splitters and khamenei's back in the dugout before he knows what happened 11575115
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 07/10/2026From The Athletic MLB newsletter: "If the White Sox win either Games 3 or 4 at Rate Field, they will clinch a series at home for the first time since … 1906! That was when Doc White outpitched Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown and the Cubs to win 8-3 and clinch the World Series in six." 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 07/10/2026"Muse, the popular new AI personal assistant from Meta, is building continuously updated dossiers on its 4 million users The level of insight in the resulting dossiers makes social-media algorithms that study your likes and clicks look quaint" time.com/article/2026...time.comMeta’s Muse AI Agent Is Building a Dossier On YouInternal instructions reviewed by TIME show the AI assistant mapping users and their contacts—including people who don’t use Muse—and sharing anonymized insights across its system. 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 06/10/2026Just because there are actually numbers to such things... Crime levels are lower in Chicago on a 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 4Y basis 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddJordan Novet @jordannovet.cnbc.com · 05/10/2026"More than two-thirds of groups on the Russell 1000 index of large US groups are linked to AI, either directly or because the technology is becoming embedded in their business models, according to Citigroup research." www.ft.com/content/3302...ft.comHome - Financial TimesNews, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics 022
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBlock Club Chicago @blockclubchi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026The CTA has unveiled a 1950s neon-style sign at a revamped Blue Line stop. buff.ly/5Ifslf9 965794
Reposted by Jonathan ToddMolly Knight @mollyknight.bsky.social · 04/10/2026He somehow managed to spike opponents with his cleats and ALSO not run out ground balls in the World Series. Incredible bit. 2781
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 04/10/2026Put together some thoughts on AI/capex, the recent shift to off-balance sheet, and why it's (probably? maybe?) not the same as the pre-GFC financial gymnastics yontodd.substack.com/p/gpu-monoli...yontodd.substack.comThe GPU monoline: How $3T in off-balance-sheet AI debt is rewriting Big Tech creditAmazon’s $8B SPV and Broadcom’s $60B debt package reveal the AI buildout has outgrown retained earnings. Why the real risk isn't a 2008-style bust, but a structural blow-out in credit dispersion. 030
Reposted by Jonathan ToddJames Ball @jamesrball.com · 02/10/2026Great way to demonstrate the club isn't state owned and is a totally independent business, honest. 231461
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 02/10/2026This is fine etc etc $PSKY $ORCL www.ft.com/content/2c56... 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026“What a chart.” - Bespoke 1317139
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 01/10/2026Forget "I don't blame you, Kevin," the "This just happened?" is the best quote on Trump/Fed bit time.com/article/2026... 110
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026I know I should be writing about rates and serious macro things, but I took some liberties and compared the market’s crap breadth with how MLB has worked in recent years The main takeaway is clearly that if you don’t like the Dodgers, you probably don’t like resilient equity portfolios 100
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 30/09/2026Net exports, consumer spending a bigger than expected drag on growth... Atlanta Fed GDPNow down from 5.0% to 3.7% www.atlantafed.org/research-and... 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddRuo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026tracking human-human interaction is becoming increasingly important 171
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBarry Butler Photography @barrybutler9.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Fire on Friday. Today's sunrise over the Chicago skyline. 544779
Reposted by Jonathan Toddbendwalsh.bsky.social @bendwalsh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026an ex-Chelsea owner enmeshed in the Russian oil industry?! 2339
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 23/09/2026$FUN -45% since Travis Kelce got involved www.wsj.com/business/dea... 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 21/09/2026Correct. Similarly, this was probably my favorite read from the weekend. www.newyorker.com/culture/the-...newyorker.comShould the Classroom Be More Like the Gym?As A.I. presses harder on the academic enterprise, we might look to a place where process is its own reward. 041
Reposted by Jonathan ToddJim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 18/09/2026my brilliant colleague @robertshrimsley.bsky.social on the threat from Elon Musk’s X platform www.ft.com/content/f270... 6528171174
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 18/09/2026From today's Athletic FC newsletter... "'I want to reclaim the flag for us,' Klopp said. 'I don’t want to leave national pride to the wrong people.' If any coach is tailor-made for that mission, it’s him." 15311
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17/09/2026wild -- Lennar has cut new home ASPs by ~30% since 2022, from $511K to $359K Good thread from over there x.com/nickgerli1/s... 021
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17/09/2026“The word ‘Deficit’ is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS” -Michael Scott Oh wait... 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 17/09/2026"Clearlake will hope that paying up to end the club’s messy governance will improve decision making. It has its work cut out to give Boehly seller’s remorse." www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...bloomberg.comAre Chelsea’s Also-Rans Really Worth £5 Billion?There are far less stressful ways to make a modest profit than dabbling in an English Premier League football club. So financier Todd Boehly must feel some relief to be leaving Chelsea FC without fina... 000
Reposted by Jonathan ToddIvan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 16/09/2026He will never understand monetary economics. He was a non-investment grade issuer in the private sector. He does not have the capacity or the curiosity to learn fiat currency economics. Note, he doesn't mention Warsh. 1027936
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 16/09/2026Stephen Moore on the TV, the pride of... New Trier HS? 000
Reposted by Jonathan ToddKatie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 15/09/2026Big things are happening. Foreign investors prefer US stocks to Treasuries as debt worries grow - www.ft.com/content/e565...ft.comForeign investors prefer US stocks to Treasuries as debt worries growInternational flows into American equities exceed government debt for first time this century outside pandemic and aftermath of global financial crisis 67925
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 15/09/202675% of investors say Treasury bond buybacks either do nothing or push yields higher -- from BofA FMS 021
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBob Burgess @bobburgess.bsky.social · 11/09/2026When a member of TBAC says this, it's time to pay attention: “...there are emerging-market-type risks in some of the actions the US has been taking,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee... 031
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/09/2026"The new private buyers pay far more attention to yield and have to be offered higher and higher rates to absorb the growing Treasury supply." www.ft.com/content/a441... 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.substack.com · 10/09/2026Risk is defintiely to the upside on rates, I'd be very amused to see a surge of people rushing to lock in that 7.07% mortgage 031
Reposted by Jonathan ToddDom White @domw.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Gee wizz, would you look at how quickly investors are marking up their expectations for long-run economic growth in the US! 3517