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Alan Gerard

@wxmanms1.bsky.social
4.3K followers 1.5K following 4.8K posts

35 year meteorologist in warning/forecast provision and research, now CEO of Balanced Weather LLC, Disney/Peanuts fan, golfer, sports fan, TK Little. For more weather info go to balancedweather.substack.com/about

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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 2h
Monday was another day of expansive record warmth across the central US, with a number of long term climate sites setting records. A shift in the pattern is coming - but it may be temporary with more warmth east of the Rockies by next week. balancedweather.substack.com/p/record-hea...
balancedweather.substack.com
Record heat continues for a couple of more days in the central and eastern US
Another major hurricane looms in the eastern Pacific
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The Lincoln Project @lincolnproject.us · 6h
Monica De La Cruz took healthcare away from TX-15 constituents to pay for tax breaks for billionaires.
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Rodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 15h
Have the Rams considered simply doing nothing for several minutes and just letting the clock expire
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Robert Downen @robertdownen.bsky.social · 22h
😐😐😐😐
A tweet from Kacey Musgraves responding to Kristi Noem's endorsement of Ken Paxton: "I dont think you have a dog in this fight but if you did you would have shot it."
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Joe Walsh @walshfreedom.bsky.social · 23h
She should be ousted. But the guy who would oust her, Donald Trump, is a billion times more corrupt than Kimberly Guilfoyle. Trump does shit like this on a much, much, much bigger scale every single day.👇
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Twin Cities sets record for latest 90 degree high; eastern Pacific sets record for busiest hurricane season ever (h/t @drkimwood.bsky.social) substack.com/@balancedwea...
substack.com
Record heat continues to dominate the central part of the country
Twin Cities sets record for latest 90F reading on record; Eastern Pacific sets record for most active tropical cyclone season
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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Combined, the eastern + central North Pacific basins have exceeded their record *seasonal* Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Notably, both the ENP and CNP currently rank third when evaluated *separately*. Those years were hyperactive in one or the other, not both: CNP < 2015, 2018 ENP < 1990, 1992
Central North Pacific (180-140W) daily accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a metric based on tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed that helps capture both strength (how high the winds are) and duration (how long the storm lasts). "Cumulative" means the daily ACE is added up from the start of the season through that day. Dates are labeled along the x-axis. The green line shows 2026 daily ACE through October 11. Thin gray lines are individual years from 1982 to 2025.Eastern North Pacific (140W to North America) daily accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a metric based on tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed that helps capture both strength (how high the winds are) and duration (how long the storm lasts). "Cumulative" means the daily ACE is added up from the start of the season through that day. Dates are labeled along the x-axis. The green line shows 2026 daily ACE through October 11. Thin gray lines are individual years from 1982 to 2025.
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Dennis Mersereau 🛰️ @wxdam.com · 12/10/2026
The northeastern Pacific basin just entered the #1 spot for its most active hurricane season on record. The season has produced 21 storms so far, including three Category 5 hurricanes and five Category 4s.
theweathernetwork.com
Northeast Pacific breaks record for its most active hurricane season - The Weather Network
The region officially broke the record early Sunday evening
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Dr Dan Shugar 🇨🇦 @watershedlab.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Another massive flood caused by a landslide in Nepal - this one in the Budhi Gandaki valley. No decent cloud-free imagery from @planet.com yet but this is from @esa.int Sentinel2.
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The Washington Sun @washingtonsun.com · 11/10/2026
Bill Gates issued a pointed warning about the immediate risks of AI, saying the industry should focus on how “bad people” can use the technology rather than the far-off danger of developers losing control of their models.
washingtonsun.com
Bill Gates Warns of 'Grim Possibilities' Without More Control Over AI
Gates called on the industry to focus on the bad actors who could cause havoc without the proper safeguards.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Tons of weather to talk about again today: Isaias tornadoes, Rachel flash flooding, Simon lashing the Pacific coast of Mexico, and incredible record warmth across the central United States. balancedweather.substack.com/p/rachel-bri...
balancedweather.substack.com
Rachel brings heavy rain and flooding to southern California, while the remnants of Isaias produce several tornadoes
Simon lashing the Pacific coast of Mexico with flooding rains and high winds; much of central and southeast US to see record heat next several days
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IEMBot Phoenix @psr.weather.im · 11/10/2026
PSR issues Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: radar indicated, flash flood damage threat: considerable] for Imperial [CA] till Oct 11, 1:00 AM PDT Link
IEMBot Image
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Brad Panovich @wxbrad.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Burke, NC counties | Additional Amounts: 1.5-3 in | Torrential Rain: Occurring | Expires Sunday, 10/11/26 at 6:15 AM. Interactive map: greenewx.com/maps/urn_oid_2_49_0_1_…
Image description here
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Again, I never again want to hear the Republicans claim the mantle of, or be referred to as, the "party of national security." This, as with threatening to invade our NATO allies, should have long ago immediately ended his presidency. It also should again now.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
In any normal parliamentary democracy, the no confidence vote would be taking place tonight.
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Adam J. @adamj.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Kiffin and them are going to be pissed about that call... but Minchey's scramble would have been good from 8 lmao
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Ian @ianlivingston.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Russia is also supporting Iran against us. This guy is the biggest asshat on the planet.
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Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
This and his other talking points are all made in the Kremlin.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Coastal water levels in SoCal are running ~1.5' above normal because of a record-strength El Niño. Rachel's battering waves on top of these elevated waters are likely to cause significant coastal damage during Sunday morning's high tide, with all-time top-10 water levels at San Diego and L.A.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Got a haboob type situation going on in Phoenix metro. Lots of mPING reports of blowing dust, ASOS at Goodyear airport reported zero visibility earlier.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
This is completely disgusting and we should be embarrassed
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Chris Vannini @chrisvannini.com · 10/10/2026
Oklahoma has six yards through four drives.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Still an impressive signature here
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ckuster-ou.bsky.social @ckuster-ou.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Clear tornado debris signature northwest of Newington, GA at 2:17pm CDT.
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Unofficial BBCNews (World) Bot @bbcnews-world-rss.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Four dead and thousands without power after Hurricane Isaias lashes US
bbc.co.uk
Four dead and thousands without power after Hurricane Isaias lashes US
Isaias made landfall in Florida on late Friday before being downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Tornadic storm with debris signature northwest of Charleston #Isaias
Reflectivity and correlation coefficient data from Charleston, SC NEXRAD
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Isaias has left two people dead and hundreds of thousands without power, while Rachel and Simon will be causing serious impacts along the Pacific coast of North America the next couple of days. balancedweather.substack.com/p/isaias-kil...
balancedweather.substack.com
Isaias kills two and leaves more than 900,000 customers without power
Rachel expected to bring flooding and gusty winds to Southwest, while category 4 Simon could bring catastrophic impacts to coast of Mexico
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JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Isaias was interesting for sure
graphical depiction of NHC intensity forecasts, and wind-pressure relationships
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Kate from Kharkiv @kateinkharkiv.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
An oil terminal in Rostov is transferring its diesel to the cloud. That's where Trump can get it if he wants to.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Can totally relate - my wife gives me grief for why I have to always be asking questions and trying to talk through why something is happening or what the possible alternatives are, whether we are talking weather or why somebody driving on the highway next to us is being stupid. LOL
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Concern for flash flooding Saturday into Sunday am has increased from northern GA into the southern Appalachians as the track of #Isaias has shifted more to the east. Latest 24-hour high res ensemble (REFS) probability of 5+" of rain ending Sun 8 am ET now quite high in this area.
NWS WPC day 2 risk of excessive rainfall/flash floodingREFS 24 hour probabilities of rainfall greater than 5" ending at 8 am ET Sunday
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Angry Staff Officer @pptsapper.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Must be nice for them to live in literally the best and most grandiose housing the Army has - after also making the Army spend hundreds of thousands in renovations - so they can take advantage of the security that comes with it Meanwhile, the barracks mold continues.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Latest wind gust forecast from HRRR model suggests those numbers will increase significantly overnight across AL and GA.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
PowerOutage.com now showing about 600K customers without power from #Isaias, including nearly 400K in Florida Panhandle and another 200+K in Alabama.
poweroutage.com
PowerOutage.com - Track, record, and aggregate power outages
Discover the latest power outages and outages in your area with PowerOutage.com. Track, record, and aggregate power outages to stay informed and prepared.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
They most certainly do not. And AI is taking a lot of it to a new level. The 1000 member Google DeepMind was pretty much the answer key for this storm 3 days out.
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Patrick Marsh @pmarshwx.com · 10/10/2026
High res did well with the concept of this sting jet (evaporationally forced descending air), but had it too far west (Mobile) most of the day. Would love to know what models latched on to causing the westward bias in the track this morning.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Screen cap of ob from Sant Rosa showing sustained wind of 83 mph and gust to 116 moh
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
As some models anticipated, north and northwest side of #Isaias seems worst as far as wind due to continued interaction with upper jet. Lots of 70 to 100 mph gusts from Pensacola up through Crestview. Recent gust to 99 mph at WeatherFlow site in Navarre, and Pensacola ASOS gusted to 92 mph.
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IEMBOT Emergency @emergency.weather.im · 10/10/2026
MOB issues Flash Flood Emergency [flash flood: radar indicated, flash flood damage threat: catastrophic] for Okaloosa [FL] till Oct 10, 1:15 AM CDT Link
IEMBot Image
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Finally seeing some signs of weakening now that landfall is imminent. Doppler velocities have come down a bit and pressure has risen several millibars. NHC estimating 110 mph, high end cat 2. #Isaias
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
A couple of deterministic model forecasts to try to show the probabilistic space of what is impending with the landfall of #Isaias: wind gusts from most recent HRRR showing 70 to 100 mph gusts from PNS to PAM, while RRFS shows 80 to 130 mph with a faster landfall.
Forecast 10m wind gusts from 1800 UTC RRFS model valid at 8 pm CT tonight.Forecast 10m wind gusts for 10 pm CT tonight from the 2000 UTC HRRR model.
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Jeffrey Brown @texasgeologist.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Re: Trump's diesel deal with Putin Conversion factor is 7.5 barrels of diesel per metric ton. Daily global diesel consumption is around 25 million bpd. So, the initial 300,000 tons, or 2.2 million barrels, would meet global demand for about two hours.
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Amazing - the regional hurricane models are making #Rachel a hurricane again before it reaches the Baja coast. Not sure about that - but certainly seems like it will be a tropical storm due to dynamic contributions from the strong upper level trough picking it up and unusually warm SSTs.
HAFS-A forecast of pressure and wind for Rachel valid at 10 pm CT Saturday evening
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/10/2026
it's a bit concerning that instead of responding to obvious political incentives and moderating on some of their worst and most unpopular policies, the Trump administration is getting more and more extreme
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Latest update on #Isaias, which actually looks a little stronger in last couple of hours. balancedweather.substack.com/p/isaias-not...
balancedweather.substack.com
Isaías not showing any signs of weakening yet
In fact, if anything it looks a bit stronger than this morning
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Stupid auto correct
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
#Isaias looking increasingly impressive on Elgin AFB radar. Latest recon pass found 135 kt as flight level in NE quadrant.
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