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Reposted by Will Jordan

Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

OPINION TODAY featured podcast — @will-jordan.bsky.social joins us to break down new research on the growing divide between active and passive news consumers. Then we discuss the rise of biometric security with Gideon Christian. (@maristpoll.bsky.social) opiniontoday.substack.com/i/180075531/...

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Really enjoyed this - thanks for having me. So much of what we see now is just partisan sorting. That’s why it really stands out to me when a behavior actually cuts across party lines. This distinction on news consumption is one of those cases:

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

It’s fair that voters who shifted hardest right in '24 -- e.g. low-propensity Hispanic voters -- probably turned out at lower rates in NJ/VA, so the “persuasion” angle is obscured. But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

Pres Obama is singularly popular in politics. Not every Dem has his charisma, but let's learn from him: • Healthcare #1 issue • Anti-war • All-of-above energy strategy • Working-class jobs (Detroit bailout) • Follow public on cultural topics (marriage equality, border)

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

Pre-election prediction markets gave Sherrill 5% odds of a margin exceeding 14 points. The odds of this didn't change Sep-Nov despite Trump's approval rating dropping 5 points during that period.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

I continue to love this simple survey question as a way to divide the public. It cuts across partisanship -- Rs may hate "the media" but they have engaged/attentive voters on favored platforms (Fox/X) just like Ds.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

House battleground very different in 2026 vs 2018 '18 Rs defend 65 seats @ Trump+10/bluer Ds defend 30 @ Clinton+10/redder '26 Rs defend 30 seats @ Trump+10/bluer Ds defend 62 @ Harris+10/redder BUT '18 Ds need 24 (37% of R defensive seats) '26 Ds need 3 (10% of R defensive seats)

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 29/07/2025

In-party disaffection for Democrats is coming from the left, where voters are still likely to vote for Democrats in elections. But among Republicans, it’s moderates and conservatives who rate the GOP image worse. That’s a bigger problem, because those voters are likelier to cross over and vote Dem.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

This is a great question to ask. As someone left of center, if you think the answer is the second one, think hard about what needs to change or accept you believe there is basically no chance of Democrats controlling the Senate and passing real laws or nominating judges for the next decade or so.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 03/05/2025

This new Navigator tracking survey has Democrats taking the lead over Trump in H2H on taxes, inflation, and the economy for the first time in I’m not sure how long (a while). Trump led on all 3 in late February.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

Enjoyed this piece from @robflaherty.bsky.social Recently we have been studying a similar concept to the “opt in” and “opt out” voters in our polling, and I think it’s incredibly useful for understanding how current trends in political behavior and media habits are related…

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

A striking set of results from Navigator Research. A lot of the time simple language tweaks make little difference, but here, voters are much more comfortable agreeing with a position once it criticizes the status quo.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

Really seems British voters like to pretend to pollsters they live in a democracy with a proportional representation system until there’s an election and then, eventually, they voter for a party that can win in their constituency. Epistemologically difficult to read the mood.

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Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Harris was perceived as more liberal than Biden, Clinton, or Obama had been when they ran. And while people saw Trump as more conservative than they had previously, they were still closer ideologically to him (1.62 points away) than Harris (2.06). cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/Ideology/

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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 04/04/2025

Striking parallel between Trump and Liz Truss in terms of the power of economics/markets to turn even one’s own partisans against you. Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

At the regional/county level, the 2023->2025 swing is very similar to the 2020->2024 swing. (Notice Crawford and Harris both did relatively well in suburban WOW)

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

So far there is not a clear relationship between special election turnout and Democratic over performance. If anything higher salience/turnout specials like FL-01/06 have been better for Democrats than the average (average swing is +11%D so far in 2025)

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Matt McDermott @mattmfm.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Incredible stat: the electorate in FL-01 and FL-06 skewed Republican by +28 and +21 in registration, yet the GOP only won by 14 points. This isn’t just Dem turnout: this is persuasion. Trump is losing ground with GOP voters, and Independents broke hard for Democrats.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

While voter ID passed in Wisconsin the “yes” vote (62.7%) was narrowly under the lowest support ever recorded by Wisconsin’s premier pollster, suggesting some mix of: -very lib electorate -real support lower than polls -thermostatic backlash -voters do love 2 vote “no”

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

The Musk triple threat: - universal name ID/salience - infuriates liberal base, but not equally adored by conservative base - backlash with marginal Republican voters

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

Trump coalition relied on new support from apolitical/“disengaged” voters - if he still boasted outsize support from that ilk, a poll like this would be a place to look. Evidence so far points to the opposite: tariffs/Elon agenda excites the online fanboys but worries normies.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

New Gallup issue approval data - economy now one of Trump’s worst issues, at -18, 59% disapprove Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 30/03/2025

Search interest in “Tesla boycott” and “Tesla takedown

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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 30/03/2025

Rising share of Democratic rank and file want congressional Ds to oppose Trump as much as possible, not find common ground Jan 46% preferred opposition Feb 65% Now 70% And Democrats who feel this way overwhelmingly say party could be doing more on this front More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 30/03/2025

For the party to be truly relevant and have a shot at passing an agenda, it also needs to become the sort of party that can compete in places like Ohio and Texas. It’s always been true but was more complicated when there was more variance in politics (the odd survivor in MT or WV, etc)

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 30/03/2025

Finally getting toward a decent visualization of why “reach” Senate races are so important. With Democrats having seen so much success in purple America, there is no where else to go.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

All I’m saying is that Democrats better have a competent candidate running in every single race, from state leg to US senate, in 2026

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

Perceptions of Trump's economic actions so far are correlated with income but in the opposite direction of what you saw with Trump support in 2024 (e.g. his actions are less popular the lower you go in income scale)

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

I count 2 seats flipped by the president's party in midterm, in a state that president lost in the most recent presidential election, over past 40 years (both were in 1998: popular Gov. Evan Bayh won IN and some guy named John Edwards won NC in 1998...)

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Trump approval on inflation/prices fell to a new low in YouGov data, 38% approve to 52% disapprove

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

Interesting finding - most of the gap in Musk/Trump popularity is down to differences among Trump voters. Musk is most popular among engaged, educated Trump voters. But there is some possible backlash (or dislike for billionnaire Musk in the Oval, etc) among the non-college, apolitical segment.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Thermostatic opinion watch: 2025 survey in California finds a sharp reversal in Biden-era trend toward anti-immigration attitudes

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Tulsi Gabbard ahead of Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Rick Scott, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbot in CPAC straw poll

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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 24/02/2025

The youth gender divide is real and important, but it can mask the fact that the populist right is gaining ground among young women as well as young men in many countries (this was also true in the US). AfD tripled their vote share among 18-24 year old men, but the same was true of young women.

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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 24/02/2025

NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany: Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left. www.ft.com/content/29fd...

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

Seems like German polls were pretty good.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

A problem with becoming a party of edge lords is you lose touch with the segment of the electorate on the other end of the socio-political spectrum (people who attend town halls)

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Amy Fried @asfried.bsky.social · 22/02/2025

Campaign button from Janet Mills 2018 run for Maine governor: #mepolitics

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

How many federal workers would DOGE need to fire to make up for Musk not paying his fair share of taxes? Answer: 677,000. That's 44% of the entire non-DoD federal workforce. Again, this power grab is not about the budget. It’s about politics.

Title: What Costs More: Billionaire Tax Avoidance or Federal Workers?
Subtitle: Musk’s tax avoidance could fund 677K federal jobs
• Current Tax Rate: 3.27%
• Top Federal Tax Rate: 37%

Cost Comparison (Bar Chart):
• Cost of Musk’s Tax Avoidance (smallest bar, purple)
• Cost of Top 100 Billionaires’ Tax Avoidance (largest bar, red)
• Total Federal Workforce Salaries (mid-sized bar, green)
X-axis ranges from $0B to $380B, showing that billionaire tax avoidance covers a significant portion of federal workforce salaries.

Impact on Federal Workforce:
• Average Federal Salary: $106,000
• Jobs Musk’s Avoidance Could Fund: 677,782 (29.5% of all federal employees)

Federal Workforce Breakdown (Pie Chart):
• A segment representing 29.5% of the workforce highlights the share Musk’s avoided taxes could fund, labeled “Share Equal to Musk’s Avoided Taxes: 29.5%”.

Sources:
• Musk’s Tax Rate: ProPublica
• Billionaire Gains: Bloomberg Billionaires Index (Dec. 31, 2024)
• Federal Employee Data: USAFacts

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

Gallup just registered Trump's worst economic approval rating on record, at -12 (42% approve/54% disapprove). Throughout Trump's first term it was a relative strength for him, and previously his lowest economic rating with Gallup was -8 in June 2017.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Snapshot of the parties Gallup finds that having lost election Ds more likely to say party should become “more moderate” (+11 in 2025 compared to 2021) Having lost an election Rs were more likely to say party should become “more conservative” (+12 in 2021 compared to 2025)

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Gallup found some polling on buying Greenland from 1947.

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Will Jordan @will-jordan.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Approval for Trump 2.0 is enjoying a higher honeymoon than in 2016 but he is still historically unpopular. He has by a good margin the worst honeymoon approval of any president on record, just not counting Trump 1.0.

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