iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 1h

The least haunted field? Undoubtably, sigma-algebras.

010

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

da share z0ne @dasharez0ne.bsky.social · 5h

DA FUSION PATTERN - dashare.zone ADMIN

YOUR IN DA PHYSICS Z0NE!!!! DA TEXT SAY'S "DOUBLE SHIT EXPERIMENT, WHICH ONE DID IT GO IN, ITS JUST A TOASTER, FUCK U, BULL SHIT EXPERIMENT , FUCK OF!!! FUCK ALL PHOTON'S - FUCK ALL PARTICLE'S - DASHARE.ZONE ADMIN AND IF YA DONT BELEIVE ME THAT PARTICLES AINT REAL JUST TRY TO SCOOCH A COUPLE OF THEM TOGETHER CLOSER THAN A PLANCK LENGTH AND TELL ME IM WRONG - DASHARE.ZONE ADMIN

042598

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Sam Power @spmontecarlo.bsky.social · 8h

Very good from @timhenke.bsky.social

23712

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The Wikipedia article has been fixed, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-spline. Let us hope that this error never plagues anyone again.

en.wikipedia.org

I-spline - Wikipedia

141

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I implemented M-spline and I-spline basis functions in Stan and demonstrated their use in monotonic regression for my debonair supporters over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/betanalpha/p.... Just in case you were on the fence about supporting.

patreon.com

Michael Betancourt — writing about modeling building and statistical inference.

083

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Mascot Texorcism 🐯 @texsaber.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I've had this stupid joke in my head for the past 3 weeks, I had to put it into drawing

Theatrical poster for "Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me," except the portrait of Laura Palmer is replaced with a Walkling from the game Big Walk, and the film name is replaced with "Big Walk with Me"

3251991617

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

patreon.com

Michael Betancourt — writing about modeling building and statistical inference.

083

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The Wikipedia article has been fixed, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-spline. Let us hope that this error never plagues anyone again.

en.wikipedia.org

I-spline - Wikipedia

141

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Chert @chert.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

please help… my son…

photo of a forklift w/ a pallet jack sitting on its forks like it was an adult carrying a child across its arms

4657151279

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Ahahahahaahahahaha. Based on some colleague recommendations, I created a LinkedIn account for sharing my usual announcements. After adding some basic information and clicking on one recommended post, my account was suspended until I give them a government ID. No, thank you. What a scam.

030

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I have finally finished a new probability theory chapter. In fact, two of them. Two and a half if you consider the substantial updates to my product spaces chapter.

1123

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

It came from the deep.

An ensemble of red, squiggly lines diverging from a common point on the bottom left corner of the image.

073

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I have finally finished a new probability theory chapter. In fact, two of them. Two and a half if you consider the substantial updates to my product spaces chapter.

1123

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

LEE GATLIN @neilaglet.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Hee hee hee

A drawing of a witch flying on her broom in front of an big orange circle. The point of her tall hat is bent back on the wind, and the brim is pushed back. She cackles, HEEHEEHEE, while her black cat holds on for dear life on the back of the broom. A small bubbling cauldron with a foot sticking up out of it hangs off the front of the broom trailing steam. A spider dangles by its web from the tip of the broom.

6484133

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Oh, do you not check your retros?

Posterior retrodicive checks between a Bayesian linear regression model and the four data sets from Anscombe’s quartet.

Because the data sets all share the same summary statistics the likelihood functions are the same. Consequently so too are the posterior and posterior predictive disruptions. The retrodictive checks, however, demonstration varying tensions between the common posterior predictive distribution and the observed covariation in each data set.

291

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Katja Politt @lingucat.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

f(x) is actually short for fhtagn of x

274

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The logit function quietly smiles…

0123

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

What's scarier than statistics? To celebrate the spooky season I'll be hosting another round of statistics office hours on Wednesday, October 28th at 1:30 PM EDT, www.patreon.com/betanalpha/p....

patreon.com

Spooooooky Office Hours Wed 10/28 at 1:30 PM EDT | Michael Betancourt

What's scarier than statistics? On Wednesday, October 28 at 1:30 PM EDT I'll be hosting another general question and answer livestream. I'

121

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

What's scarier than statistics? To celebrate the spooky season I'll be hosting another round of statistics office hours on Wednesday, October 28th at 1:30 PM EDT, www.patreon.com/betanalpha/p....

patreon.com

Spooooooky Office Hours Wed 10/28 at 1:30 PM EDT | Michael Betancourt

What's scarier than statistics? On Wednesday, October 28 at 1:30 PM EDT I'll be hosting another general question and answer livestream. I'

121

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

disc horse bot @horsedisc.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

mechwarriors are nonentities. "mechwarrior" is an oppressive class, like pomosexual people or Welsh people.

4447

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

franciscOOoOo👻 varela fan club @paleopragmatist.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Mambo No. ℵ₀

1468

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Wild what you can do when you have equations that are not incorrect!

A plot showing a function build up from a weighted sum of M-spline basis functions, and the corresponding integral which can be derived from a weighted sum of I-splines.

1110

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

With the big storm, getting to and from the train stations on Saturday is going to be a pain... <monkey finger curls> <All Amtrak trains on the Northeast Corridor this weekend canceled>

010

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

beetle moses @beetlemoses.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Three panel comic. Panel 1: a guy is putting on his jacket, getting ready to leave his apartment. He says, “gonna go get some ice cream.” Panel 2: the guy peeks around a corner into another room in his apartment. In the room, there is a monkey with glowing eyes floating in a large, shimmering, blue tube and some unusual technology lining the walls. The guy asks, “you want anything, omniscient monkey in hypersleep?” Panel 3: answering his own question, the guy scoffs, “psh! Duh… banana flavor.”

5996851294

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Alan Miesz @alanmiesz.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Not sure if the à la already covers it, but there’s a known indexing issue in Ramsay’s paper that’s corrected here www.fon.hum.uva.nl/praat/manual... (found it via jbloomlab.github.io/dms_variants...)

fon.hum.uva.nl

spline

133

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Has anyone implemented I-splines from M-splines a la Ramsay's 1988 Stat Sci paper? I've implemented the M-splines just fine, but I cannot for the life of me figure out why the equation for the I-splines isn't working as expected.

291

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

291

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Moritz Schauer @mschauer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

#MathSky Trying to demystify Caratheodory's measure extension theorem: mschauer.github.io/share/friend...

mschauer.github.io

163

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

weeder @weeder.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

God, grant me the courage to change the things I can and incredible new powers to change the things I can't.

63106972531

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Technology Connections @techconnectify.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

"Are you selling me a solution or a dependency?" is a question I think more people should ask.

4639421079

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

My favorite activity: trying to make sense of an equation that everyone cites to one source, only to realize that said source uses the same symbol to mean different things on the left-hand and right-hand sides of the equation.

0141

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

All statistics is spooky because numbers are haunted. But you can make it extra spooky by adding your scary questions to the queue.

072

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

0141

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

All statistics is spooky because numbers are haunted. But you can make it extra spooky by adding your scary questions to the queue.

072

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Emily✨ @emilyoram.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Always a treat to be reminded of an old friend

5695413403

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Kasey Gifford @kaseygifford.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

This is my new favorite thing.

74164415274

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

barleybap but she's dressed as a spooky skeleton @barleybap.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Batman: TAS implies the existence of Batman: Any%.

202142702

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

beetle moses @beetlemoses.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Two panel comic. Panel 1: two sharks are sitting in a cafe. A smaller shark holding a teacup says discreetly to the other, “okay, look at this couple behind you - but don’t make it obvious.” Panel 2: the other shark, a Great White shark, turns its gigantic head in the most obvious way possible to look across the room at some sharks chatting at another table.

38104151612

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

I don’t do calculations, I make…

073

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 19/09/2026

I assume that when whoever is making it IPOs they will reveal the full lineup implied by the existence of Tilly Norwood.

Grid of logic gate options as Venn diagrams of Tilly Norwood, Tilly Orwood, Tilly Andwood, Tilly Xorwood, Tilly Nandwood, and Tilly Xnandwood

16627121

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

THE FAR SIDE DAILY @bot.cowtools.org · 18/09/2026

Fire is invented.

51814365

Reposted by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

Piotr Koc @pkoc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

@betanalpha.bsky.social has a nice piece on how to handle the problem of empty categories in the Bayesian context: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...

betanalpha.github.io

Ordinal Modeling

141

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 17/09/2026