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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Galambos and Nurullayev (2026) examine dissimilar goods provision in the context of US-China aid competition. With both aid models providing different goods, they find the American hierarchical model reducies Chinese development finance. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: US Hierarchy, Chinese Development Finance, and Great Power Competition
Abstract: How do great powers compete for influence? A common assumption in research on aid competition posits that rival donors provide similar goods when outbidding each other for international support. Yet, political relationships like hierarchies between dominant and subordinate partners grant the former some legitimate authority over the latter in exchange for various forms of side payment—political, economic, and security. We re-visit donor competition by examining dissimilar goods provision in the US-China context. Whereas the United States maintains hierarchies with multiple forms of patronage, China challenges those relationships with a single form of inducement: development finance. The effectiveness of this revisionist financing depends on expected recipient concessions, which are inversely related to costs of realignment. Beijing disburses more financing to recipients with lower costs—those with less dependence on Washington for fungible goods. Where China cannot offer comparable alternatives, side-switching costs deter revisionist investment. We use a series of two-stage models to show that American hierarchies reduce flows of Chinese development finance.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Aras and Fazlioglu (2026) ask whether middle powers use high-level diplomatic visits to reinforce democratic resilience. Using data on German Chancellor visits (1991-2023), they show how Germany strategically deploys 'symbolic capital'. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: The Quiet Influence: Are Germany’s High-Level Visits for Democratic Durability?
Abstract: While great powers often use diplomacy to ensure incumbent survival, this article asks whether democratic middle powers instead deploy high-level visits to foster democratic durability during times of internal turbulence. Analyzing a novel dataset of German Chancellor visits (1991–2023), we find that domestic instability acts as a strategic filter for engagement. Probit estimates demonstrate that instability significantly increases the likelihood of a visit when the host is a democracy, whereas instability in autocracies deters engagement. This indicates Germany strategically deploys “symbolic capital” to validate democratic resilience during turbulence. The analysis further reveals a partisan asymmetry: this responsiveness is driven primarily by Christian Democratic Union (CDU) governments and amplified following Germany’s post-2013 shift toward assertiveness. These findings challenge the traditional “civilian power” narrative, highlighting Germany’s evolution into a systemic stabilizer using soft power to defend the democratic periphery of the liberal order.

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MP Broache @mbroache.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

In case you're wondering how #ICC States Parties might respond to the Trump administration's latest attacks on the Court, check out my @fpajrnl.bsky.social piece (from 2023) w/ @kylereed.bsky.social on responses to the Trump I sanctions against the Court academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...

academic.oup.com

Who Stands Up for the ICC? Explaining Variation in State Party Responses to US Sanctions

Abstract. On September 2, 2020, the United States sanctioned two International Criminal Court (ICC) officials, under an executive order issued 3 months pre

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Pryor and Preble (2026) ask if Strategic Trade Controls (STCs) restrict or facilitate states' participation in trading dual-use items. They find no evidence STCs reduce trade values, challenging their characterisation as trade barriers. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Strategic Trade Controls as Trade-Enabling Institutions
Abstract: Do Strategic Trade Controls (STCs) restrict trade, or can they help countries participate in the trade of sensitive goods? Despite obligations under UN Security Council Resolution 1540, more than one hundred countries have not adopted comprehensive systems for controlling dual-use exports. Concerns that these regulations may impede trade and economic growth help explain this gap. We develop a new dataset recording STC enactment and adoption across all 193 UN member states and combine it with CEPII-BACI bilateral trade data for 170 countries from 1995 to 2023. We find no evidence that adopting an STC system systematically reduces strategic trade values. Instead, the clearest positive pattern appears when both trading partners maintain STC systems. The results for countries acting without a similarly regulated trading partner are less consistent, particularly after accounting for their existing trade relationships. These findings challenge the view that STCs function primarily as trade barriers. Under the right conditions, compatible regulatory systems may help countries participate in global supply chains involving strategic and dual-use goods.

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Keith A. Preble, Ph.D. @poliscikeith.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

My paper with Crystal D. Pryor (UAlbany, Center for Policy Research) in @fpajrnl.bsky.social, "Strategic Trade Controls as Trade-Enabling Institutions" has just been published! /1 doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

doi.org

Strategic Trade Controls as Trade-Enabling Institutions

Abstract. Do Strategic Trade Controls (STCs) restrict trade, or can they help countries participate in the trade of sensitive goods? Despite obligations un

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Kirchweger and Eder (2026) theorise intelligence agencies' international relations, proposing a framework asking how those relations are embedded in FP processes, the interaction effects they generate, and the roles agencies assume. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Bridging the Gap: Intelligence Agencies in Foreign Policy. A Three-Dimensional Framework for Analyzing International Intelligence Relations
Abstract: Intelligence agencies operate in complex international relations alongside official foreign policy, yet the interactions between these concealed and official layers remain underexplored in Foreign Policy Analysis. This article addresses this gap by theorizing intelligence agencies’ international relations as distinct yet embedded processes within foreign policy. It proposes a comparative framework to explain how and to what extent these relations are integrated into foreign-policy processes, what interaction effects they generate over time, and what roles they assume. Applied to Austrian–Israeli relations in the 1970s, the analysis demonstrates how both states used intelligence agencies’ relations as secret crisis management channels, yet under different patterns of political and organizational integration and foreign-policy rationales: Austria outsourced politically costly engagement to an insulated security apparatus, while Israel relied on closely integrated intelligence agencies to bypass diplomatic constraints and secure strategic objectives.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Hidaka, Kubota, Matsuura, and Yukawa (2026) consider how leader biography shapes WMD proliferation. They find that leaders who studied in Western nuclear powers were more likely to pursue nuclear weapons, but discouraged from CBW development. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Taught by the West, Armed for the Future? Study Abroad and WMD Proliferation
Abstract: What personal characteristics lead political leaders to pursue weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)? This study develops a theory that leaders’ Western educational experiences shape their beliefs and values toward WMD development through socialization and instrumental learning. We distinguish between nuclear weapons and chemical and biological weapons (CBWs), proposing that studying in Western nuclear powers increases the likelihood of nuclear pursuit while discouraging CBW development. We test these hypotheses using an original dataset of leaders’ educational backgrounds (1945–2000) and find robust evidence consistent with our theory. Western education overall discourages WMD pursuit, but studying in nuclear-armed Western states has opposing effects depending on the weapon type. These findings advance research on WMD proliferation by introducing a personal biography approach and challenge the conventional view that treats nuclear and CBW proliferation as analogous. Our results also raise policy implications for educational exchange and leader assessment in nonproliferation strategy.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Tavares, Oliveira, and Burns (2026) ask whether domestic issue salience affects national delegations to multilateral negotiations, examining Brazil's Climate, Forest, and Biodiversity diplomacy. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Driving Engagement: Issue Salience in Brazil’s Climate, Forest, and Biodiversity Diplomacy
Abstract: From a democratic perspective, the size and composition of national delegations to multilateral negotiations should reflect the salience of the issues being addressed within the domestic agenda. This study examines whether variations in issue salience are reflected in participation patterns across negotiation arenas, using Brazil—a key actor in climate, biodiversity, and forest governance—as a case study. Employing a mixed-methods design, we combine Google Trends data (2004–2024), official records on delegation size and composition, and expert interviews. Findings show that Brazil consistently sends large and diverse delegations, including high-level political actors, to UNFCCC COPs despite relatively low issue salience over time. In contrast, forest and biodiversity negotiations attract smaller, more bureaucratically oriented delegations, although these issues remain consistently salient. These results suggest that issue salience alone does not determine participation patterns; rather, participation is mediated by the institutional characteristics and visibility of specific governance arenas.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

🚨NEW PAGE ALERT🚨 After a short summer break, our editorial team are back and excited to launch our LinkedIn page! We will remain active on X and Bluesky, but follow us on LinkedIn too so you don't miss journal announcements in your feed. Join us there: www.linkedin.com/company/fore...

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Foreign Policy Analysis | LinkedIn

Foreign Policy Analysis | 5 followers on LinkedIn. A journal of the International Studies Association (ISA). Publishes work explaining foreign policy actions and outcomes.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Hagan (2026) argues that governments in politically fragmented regimes are unlikely to operate coherently during international crises, drawing on the 1914 July Crisis to trace the effects of escalation across five fragmented governments doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Coalitions at the Brink of War: How Fragmented Decision-Making Occurs in International Crises—The July 1914 Case
Abstract: Do governments operate coherently during international crises threatening war? This paper argues that this is unlikely in politically fragmented regimes, i.e., parliamentary democracies with coalition cabinets and anocracies with weak, ill-defined centers of authority. Drawing on Oppermann and Brummer (2014), it suggests two pathways by which crises intensify—not diminish—the occurrence of “coalition decision units” composed of competing factions, parties, and/or institutions.. First, because committing to war requires the approval of the full leadership (e.g., cabinet), the “foreign policy executive” (FPE) must gain the support of non-FPE actors opposed to war. Second, when war appears imminent, the FPE itself may split, with some members now advocating diplomatic restraint. Drawing upon the rich literature on the July 1914 crisis, the effects of crisis escalation are traced for the involved powers, all of which entered the crisis with fragmented governments: Austria-Hungary, Britain, France, Germany, and Russia.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Attia and Tama (2026) investigate factors shaping approval of sanctions legislation in the US Congress between 1987 and 2014, finding that legislators are responsive to international contexts when proposing and approving sanctions. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: The Domestic and International Sources of Legislative Action on Economic Sanctions
Abstract: When does the U.S. Congress move to impose sanctions on foreign countries? While prior research highlights Congress’s influence on sanctions policy, little is known about what drives legislators to act. This paper investigates factors driving the introduction and approval of sanctions legislation, arguing that the factors shaping sanctions policymaking vary across the different stages of the legislative process. Using a dataset of U.S. sanctions legislation from 1987 to 2014, we run a series of logistic regressions to analyze this two-staged process. While prior work emphasizes the role of domestic interests in driving legislative behavior on sanctions, we find that legislators are also responsive to international conditions. Our analysis shows that legislators are more likely to propose sanctions against countries violating international norms or threatening global security, but less likely to approve them when those countries are major recipients of U.S. exports.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Bendix and Jeong (2026) examine whether dovish influence can overcome hawkish bias in the US Congress. Using mixed methods data from 1973-2022, they find a pattern of dovish failure to legislatively shape foreign policy. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Dovish Defeat across Issues and Time: The Pervasive Hawkish Bias in Congress
Abstract: Research shows that hawkish members of Congress enjoy greater legislative success in shaping US foreign policy than their dovish counterparts, regardless of party control of the executive or legislative branches. This congressional bias, combined with the well-documented hawkishness of presidents, has raised concerns about the militarization of American foreign policy. Using mixed methods to capture less visible forms of influence, we examine whether congressional doves secure legislative gains on issues where, in theory, they should hold a relative advantage. In doing so, we assess whether they can overcome the hawkish bias of Congress and the presidency. Our findings, however, reveal a persistent pattern of dovish failure from 1973 to 2022. Across broad categories of bills, specific types of amendments, statistical analyses, and qualitative evidence, we find no consistent legislative success for doves. We conclude that a hawkish bias persists across issues, suggesting stable bipartisan support for a muscular foreign policy.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Minoura (2026) uses a survey experiment to study how donor citizens balance democracy promotion and competition from other donors, finding that US citizens may be willing to compromise on aid conditions but reluctant to outbid competitors. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Drivers of Public Support for Foreign Aid: Democracy Promotion or Competition for Influence?
Abstract: How do citizens in traditional donor countries balance competing goals of foreign aid: promoting democracy through conditionality versus maintaining influence amid competition from non-traditional donors? This study examines American public support for aid to Africa as Chinese aid expands. It argues that feedback from aid recipients shapes support for aid and conditionality. Using a survey experiment, the study finds that Americans become less supportive of aid when they learn that African recipients oppose democratic conditions, though this information does not significantly change support for attaching such conditions. When paired with information that Africans prefer Chinese aid without conditions, however, Americans become less supportive of democratic conditions. Yet support for aid does not increase; instead, it declines slightly. These findings suggest that when recipients resist US conditionality and signal alignment with a rival donor, Americans become more willing to compromise on conditions but reluctant to enter a bidding war for influence.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Tsai, Young, and Young (2026) present a topic-based approach to Leadership Trait Analysis (LTA), moving beyond summary profiles to explore seemingly contradictory behaviour in Trump's foreign policy. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Karamik and Arkan (2026) propose a framework for visual narrative analysis in Foreign Policy Analysis, showing how the European Union constructed itself as a political and moral actor in the context of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: EU Foreign Policy through Images: A Visual Narrative Analysis of the War in Ukraine
Abstract: Narratives organize how foreign policy becomes intelligible and actionable by defining events, assigning responsibility, and justifying particular courses of action. This article advances the narrative turn by extending it to the visual domain of political storytelling. Despite the ubiquity of images in diplomacy, Foreign Policy Analysis lacks a systematic way to examine how visuals contribute to the narratives through which foreign policy is performed. To address this gap, the article proposes a framework for visual narrative analysis. Integrating narrative theory with visual analysis, the framework shows how recurring visual elements articulate storylines. An analysis of the European Union’s social media on the war in Ukraine demonstrates how visual choices construct the EU’s role as a moral and political actor navigating tensions between diplomacy, solidarity, and security. The article illustrates how Visual Narrative Analysis reveals the ways in which visual representations reinforce, nuance, or unsettle the narrative frameworks underpinning EU foreign policy.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Ferguson (2026) explains the rise of resilience discourse in US National Security Strategies (2002 - 2022), finding that the conceptual ambiguity of resilience facilitates diverse political perspectives to sustain policy consensus. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Resilience Discourse at the Water’s Edge: American Foreign Policy Traditions and National Security Discourses
Abstract: The emergence of the concept of “resilience” in national security discourse has been explained as an expedient response to non-traditional security threats, including climate change, pandemics, terrorism, and cyber security, or as an extension of neoliberal techniques of security governance. While there is some evidence to support these accounts, by conducting a discourse analysis of US National Security Strategies released between 2002 and 2022, this article proposes a third, novel explanation for the resilience turn in US national security discourse. This is that due to its conceptual ambiguity, resilience discourse also functions to reconcile diverse political perspectives, thereby helping achieve a high degree of policy consensus. Resilience does this by speaking simultaneously to hegemonic American values, including liberty, freedom, self-reliance, and American Exceptionalism, both sides of the idealism-realism divide, and the respective Hamiltonian, Wilsonian, Jeffersonian, and Jacksonian foreign policy traditions that set the parameters of US foreign policy debates.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Sahin, Schnitzer-Skjønsberg, and Çengel (2026) conceptualise educational scholarships as tools of statecraft, linking strategic objectives to programme design, comparing historical cases from China and Australia. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: From Attraction to Strategy: Comparing the Foreign Policy Logic of Overseas Scholarship Programmes in Australia and China
Abstract: Government-funded overseas scholarship programmes have most commonly been analysed through the lens of soft power. Recent research has emphasised that the relationship between educational exchange and political influence is contingent, uneven, and often disrupted by unintended consequences. Why do governments continue to use scholarships? This article presents an alternative framework, conceptualised as multidimensional foreign policy logic, to examine how states design and justify scholarship programmes. Drawing on foundational insights from Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) literature, this framework conceptualises scholarships as policy instruments through which governments connect strategic objectives to programme design and legitimating narratives. Empirically, the paper employs a comparative historical case study design, and examines Australia and China as most different cases. The findings demonstrate that in both cases scholarships have functioned as adaptable tools of statecraft rather than merely cultural initiatives: that is, they persist because they can be redesigned to coordinate multiple foreign policy objectives.

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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Not to make it All About Me but when you need a cite for how high gas prices affect public support for foreign policy (say because the WH just made this explicit) you can read my new @fpajrnl.bsky.social piece academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...

academic.oup.com

Pay Any Price? Measuring Americans’ Willingness-to-Pay for Sanctions on Russia and China

Abstract. Economic sanctions appear to be an inexpensive means for wealthy countries to punish or coerce targets. Not all sanctions are, or will be, cheap,

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Kovačević, Rečević, Varda, and Milošević (2026) bridge neoclassical realism with role theory to introduce the concept of 'role hedging', illustrating it through Serbia's engagement with the Berlin Process and the Open Balkan Initiative. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Role Hedging and Regional Cooperation: Serbia’s Discourse on the Berlin Process and the Open Balkan Initiative
Abstract: Although the prevalent IR and FPA literature, drawing on neoclassical realism (NCR), focuses on the material aspects of hedging, it largely overlooks identity-driven dynamics, thereby falling short of offering a more wholesome understanding of states’ hedging behaviour. By leveraging an affinity between NCR and role theory in FP research, we argue that identity needs are so deeply intertwined with material considerations that they can themselves constitute primary drivers of hedging moves. The paper introduces the concept of role hedging, capturing how states seek to retain, rather than abandon, their various and often conflicting roles, by managing them either through distribution across different stages (global, regional, subregional), or by strategically shifting between those stages. By focusing on Serbia’s engagement with two regional cooperation frameworks, the Berlin Process and the Open Balkan Initiative, from 2014 to 2024, we illustrate the complexities and tensions in Serbia’s discursive positioning that underpin its precarious hedging repertoire.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Kramer (2026) explores how China manages its dual roles as leader of the Global South and global climate leader, developing a theoretical framework of role conflict management strategies in foreign policy. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Managing Role Conflict on the International Stage: How China Balances Its Dual Role in Global Climate Governance
Abstract: China has traditionally served as a leader of the Global South in global climate governance, building on its self-identification as a developing country. As expectations rose to contribute more resolutely to global climate action, China found itself confronted with a role conflict. Creating the auxiliary role of climate leader has not resolved this conflict, since the two roles are essentially associated with conflictual expectations. In this paper, I demonstrate how China sustains its dual role by employing three discursive tactics to balance the conflict: role segregation, role supplementation, and role merging. For this purpose, I develop and apply a theoretical framework of role conflict management strategies and associated tactics in foreign policy and international relations. This framework integrates previous literature from the field and some of the foundational interactionist scholarship on role conflict management, thereby contributing to a more systematic understanding of how states navigate role conflict.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Zabun (2026) suggests that government type, presidential or parliamentary, affects views of democratic leader resolve during international crises, highlighting the importance of domestic institutional structures in shaping perceptions. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Institutions over Individuals: The Role of Government Type in Demonstrating Resolve during International Crises
Abstract: Which government type—presidential or parliamentary—leads adversaries to perceive democratic leaders as more resolved when making militarized threats? While existing literature offers several explanations for demonstrating resolve based on relative capabilities, strategic interests, costly signaling, reputation, and audience costs, I suggest that government type is one of the primary factors affecting how democratic leaders’ resolve is perceived during international crises. My argument is that leaders in presidential systems are more likely to demonstrate resolve than their parliamentary counterparts because presidential systems provide greater autonomy from legislative constraints, more centralized executive authority, and fixed terms with longer tenures, making presidents appear more independent, decisive, and capable of following through on threats. I test this hypothesis in a quantitative analysis using a mixed-effects logistic regression. The findings highlight the importance of domestic institutional structures in shaping the perception of resolve by target states during international crises.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Silva (2026) argues that Presidential beliefs about defence-offense balance and sanctions backfire produce variation in US sanctions policy, and develops a typology linking US grand strategies to distinct sanctions doctrines. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Offense–Defense Balance and Sanctions Backfire: A Theory of US Sanctions Doctrines
Abstract: The United States increasingly treats economic sanctions as a tool of first resort, yet existing scholarship has not fully explained why sanctions policy varies sharply across presidential administrations. This article argues that such variation stems from leaders’ causal beliefs about two sanctions-specific factors: the offense–defense balance of economic sanctions and the risk of sanctions backfire. I introduce the concept of a sanctions doctrine—a subcomponent of grand strategy that structures how states design and employ economic coercion—and develop a typology linking four prominent US grand strategies—Liberal Internationalism, Conservative Primacy, Deep Engagement, and Restraint—to distinct sanctions doctrines. While grand strategies define broad strategic aims, leaders’ causal beliefs explain variation in sanctions activism and doctrinal divergence in practice. A plausibility probe comparing US sanctions against Iran under the Obama and Trump administrations illustrates how differences in perceived efficacy and costs generate predictable variation in sanctions policy.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Willis and Preble (2026) ask whether US security commitments lead to sanctions compliance, showing that greater US defence commitments reduce sanctions busting, though this effect dissapates for deployments longer than 40 years. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: With Friends Like These: The Impact of US Troop Deployments on Economic Sanctions Busting
Abstract: The deployment of US troops and the maintenance of US bases abroad is a manifestation of the commitments of both the United States and its partners to their security alliance. Does security cooperation lead to greater compliance with US sanctions regimes? Our research explores trade-based sanctions busting from 1990 to 2018 to understand whether the magnitude of the US military’s presence impacts the propensity of a host nation to bust US sanctions and the magnitude of sanctions-busting trade exchanged. Using the Global Sanctions Database and US global military deployments data (1990–2018), we argue that larger and long-term deployments both reduce the probability of trade-based sanctions busting and lessen the magnitude of sanctions-busting trade for states with defense pacts with the United States. Overall, we find that host nations that have signed defense pacts with the United States with more troops and longer troop durations exercise greater restraint on the likelihood of sanctions busting and reduced volumes of trade. However, we also find that the effect of alliance commitments dissipates after troop durations of 40 years. Third-party states without defense pacts see far fewer constraints on their likelihood to bust sanctions or the magnitude of their trade. Lastly, we note that the magnitude of sanctions-busting trade is more difficult to predict.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Musgrave (2026) examines the relationship between sanctions costs and public support, using two surveys to show limited backing for sanctions as economic burdens increase, with implications for American support of Taiwan and Ukraine. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Pay Any Price? Measuring Americans’ Willingness-to-Pay for Sanctions on Russia and China
Abstract: Economic sanctions appear to be an inexpensive means for wealthy countries to punish or coerce targets. Not all sanctions are, or will be, cheap, however. I demonstrate how contingent valuation techniques provide better estimates of the relationship between sanctions cost and public support for sanctions. I present results from a high-quality 2026 survey to demonstrate public support for successful sanctions on Russia and from a 2022 survey experiment that measured the importance of sanctions’ success for bearing sanctions costs. Overall, the prospects of success substantially increased respondents’ willingness to pay, but support declined substantially as the anticipated costs increased. Textual analysis of open-ended responses from the 2022 experiment establishes that normative arguments become less frequently invoked as the cost of sanctions rose. A third experiment shows that, in a crisis over Taiwan, American respondents were not willing to bear economic burdens of any sort to impose sanctions on China.

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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

In a newly published article in @fpajrnl.bsky.social , I show how rising gas prices affect Americans’ willingness to pay for victory in Ukraine and the security of Taiwan—not just directionally but in specific dollar (and cent) amounts. academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...

academic.oup.com

Pay Any Price? Measuring Americans’ Willingness-to-Pay for Sanctions on Russia and China

Abstract. Economic sanctions appear to be an inexpensive means for wealthy countries to punish or coerce targets. Not all sanctions are, or will be, cheap,

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Malit Jr (2026) focuses on the paradox of South-South labour migration in an anarchic international system, using extensive field observations of the Philippines' case to show how sender states strengthen coalitions and bargaining power. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: The Paradox of Cooperative Migration Diplomacy in the Global South: Inter-Sending State Cooperation, Multilevel Diplomacy Strategies, and the Philippine State
Abstract: How and why do sending states in the Global South cooperate under anarchy? Despite their significance, IR scholarship has largely overlooked the sending states’ strategic logic and use of labor migration as a foreign policy tool. Using the Philippine state as a single case study, I argue that Global South sending states strategically manipulate complex interstate power dynamics to solidify inter-sending state coalitions and enhance bargaining power by employing multilevel cooperative diplomacy—bilateral (learning), multilateral (cooperation), and global (positioning). Methodologically, I employ semi-structured interviews (N = 15) with state and non-state actors, process tracing, secondary sources, and decade-long field observations. Rather than viewing migration diplomacy as zero-sum, the Philippine state adopts a positive-sum, human-rights-centered migration diplomacy, fostering global coalition-building while pursuing material and ideational interests. Overall, this study advances IR debates on foreign policy and South–South labor migration by recentering the neglected inter-Global South–South sending-state migration cooperation in an anarchic international system.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Drożdż (2026) examines Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS) Three Seas Initiative (TSI) to show how populist governments institutionalise their agendas by establishing a counter-elite, finding PiS ultimately failed to do so with the TSI. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Foreign Policy Counter-Elite and Durability of Populist Foreign Policy
Abstract: This article examines how and why populist governments seek to transform foreign policy institutions through the establishment of a counter-elite. It conceptualizes the counter-elite as the missing link between populist power consolidation and the durability of populist foreign policy, arguing that its level of institutionalization determines whether populist foreign policy changes become entrenched or remain reversible.

The framework is applied to Poland under the Law and Justice party (PiS) from 2015 to 2023, using official documents, secondary literature, and anonymized interviews with policymakers and experts. Focusing on PiS’s flagship foreign policy project, the Three Seas Initiative (TSI), the analysis shows that although PiS effectively deinstitutionalized existing foreign policy structures, it failed to build a coherent and self-replicating counter-elite. As a result, foreign policy remained dependent on political incumbency, limiting the institutional reproduction of the populist agenda and leading to the marginalization of the TSI after PiS’s electoral defeat in 2023.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Altiparmak and Thies (2026) examine interrole conflicts that emerge when rival great powers pressure states into buffer state roles. Using Turkish FP during and after WWII, they show how states navigate demands in the international system. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Navigating Interrole Conflicts and Maneuvering Sovereignty in the Foreign Policy of Buffer States
Abstract: How do buffer states behave? What factors influence their decision-making? This study answers these questions using the framework of role theory to understand the interrole conflicts that are inherent in the buffer state role and that emerge when at least two opposing great powers and alliances exert pressure on them. By employing the strategies of choice, compromise (alternating and mixing roles), avoidance, and both direct and indirect resolution, this study assesses how buffer states (ego) deal with the demands of those they buffer (significant others, alters). The case of Turkey demonstrates how its foreign policy during and in the immediate aftermath of World War II was shaped by its efforts to avoid being constrained to a buffer role. An analysis of Turkey’s evolving foreign policies illustrates how the behavior of buffer states shapes broader geopolitical trends and highlights the importance of viewing these states as dynamic actors within the international system.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Cao and Hsuan-Yu Lin (2026) explore how domestic power grabs shape diplomacy with great powers. They find that countries that undergo leader power concentration are more likely to receive high-level diplomatic visits from China. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Domestic Power Consolidation, Leader Survival, and Chinese High-level Visits
Abstract: How do domestic power grabs influence international diplomacy in an era of great power competition? This article theorizes why leaders who concentrate power by weakening checks and balances—such as extending term limits, undermining courts, or marginalizing rivals—are more likely to pursue high-level diplomatic engagement with China. We argue that these leaders seek external legitimacy, economic resources, and strategic alignment to stabilize their rule, and that Chinese high-level diplomatic visits offer a means to achieve these goals. Leveraging data on incumbent takeovers and official Chinese presidential and premier visits from 1998 to 2020, we find that countries experiencing such takeovers are significantly more likely to receive Chinese high-level visits. This effect is strongest for presidential visits, which signal a deeper diplomatic endorsement, and remains robust across multiple model specifications. The findings demonstrate how domestic political change reshapes global diplomatic alignments and contributes to emerging scholarship on authoritarian consolidation and China’s international strategy.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Onea and AltıntaŞ (2026) explore ally-scaping. Using Turkey's 1964 non-intervention in Cyprus, attributed to US opposition, they show how leaders blame allies for failing to support the state as they try to avoid domestic audience costs. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Scapegoating Your Ally: How Leaders Deflect Audience Costs by Blaming Allies for Not Supporting Them in International Crises
Abstract: While the literature holds that audience costs tie leaders’ hands, an emerging body of scholarship explores ways in which leaders can strategically circumvent them. However, this research has not considered the strategy of ally-scapegoating or attributing blame to the ally for failing to support the state during crises. Leaders escape penalties for not carrying out threats, while domestic audiences hold the ally responsible. Ally-scapegoating is practiced by leaders who engage in blustering—provoking a crisis and then conceding—for the sake of boosting their domestic standing; and by those who unwarily contract audience costs by blundering into making commitments that are prohibitively expensive to fulfill. Ally-scapegoating is likely under power disparity between allies; and conviction that the ally would turn down requests to provide help. The paper illustrates ally-scapegoating through the 1964 Turkish non-intervention in Cyprus, caused by insufficient naval resources, but successfully blamed on the US opposition.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Following #ISA2026, our editorial team are on the road and in the air✈️. We are catching up with submissions and would love for anyone who presented a Foreign Policy Analysis paper at the conference to consider submitting it to FPA!

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 DiLorenzo (2026) tackles the issue of whether increased polarization weakens democratic institutions' stabilising effects on foreign policy, testing this assumption on UNGA voting consistency and alliance abbrogation. Does change occur? doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Using a survey experiment, Reinsberg, Abouharb and Seiferling (2026) examine public support in Pakistan for IMF reform programs and show how government communications influence public opinion about international organizations doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Unlocking Public Support: How Communication about Program Design Affects Public Perception of IMF Interventions
Abstract: Does communication about International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs influence citizen support for reforms and the institution itself? Using a survey experiment in Pakistan, we investigate whether emphasizing specific program content—tax increases, budget cuts, or social welfare packages—shifts public opinion. We find that while highlighting adjustment costs like tax hikes and spending cuts reduces program support, emphasizing the continuity of social protection increases it. Notably, information about costly adjustments does not negatively impact views of the IMF as an institution. These results suggest a “reservoir of confidence” in the IMF’s institutional capability, even when citizens dislike specific policy mandates. This study contributes to the literature on IMF program design and the role of political communication in shaping public support for international organizations and economic reforms.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Zhang and Xiong (2026) explore discursive securitization in Japanese foreign policy through semantic network analysis and topic modelling, showing how securitization can unfold within institutional and normative constraints. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Narrating Security, Preserving Identity: Japan’s Discursive Securitization without Militarization
Abstract: Japan’s security posture shows rising tension between political elites advocating proactive defense and the legal and material constraints. Existing scholarship is often divided into two perspectives. One expects inevitable remilitarization from a realist perspective, while the other emphasizes consistent norms from constructivism. However, mechanisms linking these views are rarely well-developed. This study introduces the concept of “securitization without militarization,” using semantic network analysis and topic modeling of 1,974 Diet transcripts to trace the discursive evolution of security debates. The findings suggest that political actors effectively construct existential threats to legitimize material policy shifts, while meticulously avoiding militaristic rhetoric to preserve the state’s ontological security. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting how states can perform discursive securitization within institutional and normative constraints, thereby expanding the empirical scope of securitization theory to legally, institutionally, and normatively constrained middle powers.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Peterson and Ai (2026) use commodity trade data, and an opportunity and willingness framework, to unpack ideological and economic factors affecting state condemnation and sanctions policies following 🇷🇺 full-scale invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Getmansky, Matakos and Sinmazdemir (2026) show how humanitarian concerns of host societies towards refugees persist in contexts of mass displacement and economic strain, based on an original conjoint experiment of Turkish residents. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Humanitarian Concerns and Acceptance of Syrian Refugees in Turkey
Abstract: Do humanitarian concerns increase support for hosting refugees? Evidence from Western democracies suggests they do, but do they matter elsewhere? We theorize that humanitarian motivations—concern for torture victims—make host societies more willing to welcome refugees regardless of background. Based on a conjoint experiment in Turkey (N = 2,362), Syrian refugee profiles indicating torture receive higher support than otherwise-similar profiles without torture. This effect is modest compared to other drivers and Western findings, yet increases support uniformly across torture victims regardless of ethnicity, religion, education, or civil war involvement. The effect extends across neighborhood residence, work permits, and citizenship, resonating broadly across respondents. Gender is the sole significant moderator, with information about torture having a stronger effect on female respondents. These findings demonstrate that humanitarian concerns persist even in contexts of mass displacement and economic strain, though their influence remains limited relative to ethnic and religious considerations.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

🚨New Article!🚨 Mehrabi (2026) theorises how leadership survival determines coalition reliability by observing how potential coups and civil conflicts lead states to prematurely withdraw from multinational military operations. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Crisis at Home, Exit Abroad: Coups, Civil Wars, and Coalition Defection
Abstract: Why do states prematurely withdraw from multinational military operations? While existing explanations emphasize domestic politics, coalition dynamics, and battlefield conditions, this article identifies leadership insecurity as a key driver of premature withdrawal from ongoing military coalitions. When coups or severe civil wars threaten incumbents' survival, leaders redirect finite military and political resources inward to bolster regime security, making sustained overseas deployments untenable. An analysis of coalition participation from 1950 to 2001 shows that states facing coups or intensified civil conflict are significantly more likely to defect from ongoing missions. The study contributes to the literature by centering leadership survival as a determinant of coalition reliability and by disaggregating coalition types to show how institutional design shapes the costs and feasibility of withdrawal. The findings carry important policy implications for anticipating defection risks and designing more resilient coalitions, especially outside consolidated democracies.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Nguyen (2026) explains how, despite a contentious history and context, Vietnam attaches importance to its bilateral relationship with China, using a relational power framework, providing three propositions to explain these interactions. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Unveiling Relational Power in Foreign Policy: Insights from China–Vietnam Relations
Abstract: This article employs the relational power approach to explain the essence and dynamics of China–Vietnam relations. The bilateral relationship between these two neighboring communist states has remained relatively stable since their diplomatic normalization in 1991. Vietnam has regarded China as a top priority in its foreign policy, despite historical legacies and lingering territorial conflicts in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China has, at times, tolerated Vietnam’s defiant and confrontational actions during conflicts. Notably, interactions between the two sides frequently restore swiftly following such conflicts. This phenomenon cannot be fully explained by existing hard and soft power theories. The relational power theoretical framework provides three main propositions for explaining China–Vietnam interactions, including prioritizing long-term stability over immediate and apparent material gains, balancing expectations to sustain stability, and a preemptive effect that constrains both sides’ actions. This approach provides a nuanced understanding of their enduring yet complex relationship.

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Reposted by FPA Journal

nicoblar.bsky.social @nicoblar.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Happy to announce the 1st ever @isanet.bsky.social conference in South Asia in August 2026. Hosted in Colombo, Sri Lanka, we welcome proposals from scholars based in and/or studying South Asian politics & international relations, but also broader global themes ofc www.isanet.org/Conferences/...

eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com

ISA-SAWP Colombo 2026: Call for Proposals

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Ha and Park (2026) develop theoretical explanations for how financial sanctions alter banking markets, showing they can induce greater market concentration in target economies. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Coercive Origin of Banking Giants: Financial Sanctions as a Determinant of Bank Competition
Abstract: Detrimental effects of monopolistic banks are evident in social welfare losses and selective law enforcement resulting from bureaucratic corruption. Despite its significance as a driver of socioeconomic reconfiguration, the economic sanctions literature to date has not addressed the impact of sanctions on bank competition, although it implies a potential correlation between the two. We argue that sanctions reduce bank competition in target states as large, efficient banks better survive and adopt aggressive merger and acquisition strategies to enhance productivity under sanctions. Political pressures are also imposed on foreign banks to leave the target economies, which further increases concentration in the targets’ banking industries. Examining an original sanctions dataset for 117 countries from 1996 to 2014, we find that financial sanctions significantly reduce bank competition in target economies. This research contributes by illuminating an external political intervention through which the competitive dynamics of banking industries are determined.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Fujita, Atarashi and Yukawa (2026) explain variation in disaster relief aid, arguing that states provide more aid to those crucial to corporate supply chain interests, drawing on emergency events and response datasets, and cases from East Asia. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Article title: Supply Chain Dynamics and Disaster Relief: Evidence from Production Networks in East Asia.
Abstract: This study argues that the scale of disaster relief aid provided by donor countries is significantly influenced by the extent to which natural disasters impact their supply chain trade (SCT). The core claim states that when disasters disrupt SCT, donor countries are motivated to provide substantial aid to facilitate the restoration of vital economic ties. Through a combination of quantitative analysis and comparative case study of Japan’s responses to disasters in Thailand and Vietnam, this study demonstrates that decisions to offer aid are not driven solely by humanitarian concerns but also by the strategic importance of maintaining economic flows. Furthermore, this analysis highlights the influence of corporate interest in SCT restoration on government policies, thereby explaining variations in aid patterns. This study provides a new perspective on the influence of economic interdependence on foreign aid behavior during times of crisis.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

🚨OUT NOW🚨 Musgrave (2026) explains why subnational governments use education policy for adversarial paradiplomacy, from San Francisco's treatment of Japanese students in the early 1900s to public opinion on Florida's restrictions on Chinese researchers. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Abstract of article: Degrees of Rivalry: US Paradiplomacy and the Weaponization of Education Policy against Japan and China

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Valockova (2026) uses prospect theory to show how and when business elite perceptions influence state foreign economic hedging, drawing on Germany's economic policies towards China between 2014 and 2021. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Wu (2025) shows that European populist radical right governments diverge in their China policies due to differences in transnational business ties and executive centralization, despite sharing similar ideological foundations. academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

The FPA Editorial Team will take a break from December 22 to January 5 to recharge. Please allow for extended response times for our communications during this period.

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

1/3: Starting January 1, 2026, the new FPA editorial team will start its 5-year term. Co-Editor-in-Chiefs: Leslie Wehner, Sibel Oktay, Baris Kesgin

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

Urtuzuastigui, Bsisu, and Vernallis show that military sanctions tend to reduce refugee flows by constraining violence against civilians, while economic sanctions increase displacement by intensifying civilian exploitation. academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...

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FPA Journal @fpajrnl.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

Lee (2025) shows that leadership approval in Japan rises when leaders take tougher stances toward more salient and threatening rivals, while policies toward lesser rivals have limited domestic political effects. academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...

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