iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Social Security's cliff is getting closer, and the One, Big, Beautiful Bill made it bigger. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | I Worked in the White House. We Never Imagined This Problem Would Get This Bad.

020

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

Do we have a spending problem? I argue no. Short 🧵 Here's a graph of all program spending EXCEPT Social Security and Medicare from 1950-present (with projections through 2056). It's already way below average, moving towards historic lows. So clearly that part of the govt isn't a "problem."

All time low under Clinton. Current level lowest except for Clinton and Bush and Obama, but on track to be lowest except a single year under Clinton.

10298102

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Why do ICE and CBP need three years of new funding when they haven't spent OVER $100 billion of the funding from last year? (ICE's budget is only $10b a year so this is multiple years) www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...

budget.senate.gov

As Senate Republicans Move to Give ICE, CBP Up to $140 Billion, Data Emerges Showing the Agencies Sitting on Over $100 Billion from Previous Reconciliation Bill | U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

The Official U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

040

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

New paper from @bbkogan.bsky.social that the Republican reconciliation bill made it ~50% harder to stabilize the debt, or ~75% if the temporary parts of reconciliation are extended.

010

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

As a reminder, there is a contingency fund available for paying SNAP benefits. Trump's "Government lawyers" thought he could use it during the first term shutdown and as recently as September.

062

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

When I worked at Senate Budget, every single year, I would go through the copious errors in Rand Paul's budget. Tyler was my replacement when I left (follow him). What's so amazing about the Paul budget is both that he has some of the same errors each year & that there are new ones every year too.

18820

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

Finally, the budget accidentally sets spending levels for the year *3031* instead of 2031. Maybe it's a typo, but it's one they made 32 separate times!

0132

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

The budget is supposedly balanced in 5 years and in surplus after that, but it still has the U.S. paying the same amount in interest payments: over $1.8 trillion (35% of the new budget) by the tenth year.

191

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

It's also full of typos. The budget includes all the tax cuts from the recently passed reconciliation bill, but is silent on the spending. Are these cuts on top of reconciliation? Who knows.

191

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

So Paul can simultaneously say he's not cutting anything but also that he's cutting enough to balance the budget. It's a secret plan that could be anything.

1132

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

But then it invents a new category of spending called "Efficiencies, Consolidations, and Other Savings" and cuts that by $22 trillion. That's a huge amount of cuts! As an example, abolishing Social Security would come close. Abolishing Medicare or defense is only halfway there.

1101

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

The budget is here: congress.gov/bill/119th-c... The budget calls out all the categories of spending to keep the same. Defense = undo the reconciliation bill and make no cuts Health, education = make no cuts Vets = make no cuts And so on for all the other categories of spending

congress.gov

191

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

Yesterday, Rand Paul proposed a budget that is full of gimmicks AND full of typos. It calls for a massive 38% cut to federal spending, but doesn't tell you where.

23712

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025

I want to be very clear about what’s happening: Senate Republicans know the parliamentarian will say they can’t use 312 to pretend tax cuts are free (because two have two Byrd rule problems). So they are refusing to meet with her so they can pretend they never ignored her when they do it anyway.

NEWS — Senate R's refusing Dem request for a bipartisan meeting with the parliamentarian on using current policy baseline to pay for tax cuts.
Budget Cmte GOP spox:
"There is no need to have a parliamentarian meeting with respect to the current policy baseline because Section 312 of the Congressional Budget Act gives Graham — as Chairman of the Budget Committee — the authority to set the baseline.
"There is nothing to debate and we consider this matter settled."

582222873

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

Parliamentarian's guidance for the Finance tax portion. No school vouchers, can't relax gun control, can't require millions of people to pre-certify their taxes, and Hillsdale College still doesn't get a special tax break.

070

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

The sixth set of Byrd droppings is out and WOW - huge and COSTLY loss for Republicans. Loan repayment changes can only be for new borrowers, and they lost on CSRs, can’t add new Hyde language, plus other stuff. By my rough calculations, this just cost Republicans $150 billion or more of their cuts

budget.senate.gov

Republicans’ “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Includes Additional Provisions That Violate the Byrd Rule | U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

The Official U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

12426138

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 22/06/2025

More guidance from the Parliamentarian about what cannot be in the reconciliation bill, this time in the Judiciary Committee. Injunctions against the federal government can't be banned. We're still waiting for the immigration portions of Judiciary. www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...

budget.senate.gov

More Provisions in Republicans’ “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Are Subject to Byrd Rule, Parliamentarian Advises | U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

The Official U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget

021

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Senate Budget Committee @senatebudget.bsky.social · 12/06/2025

NEW: Nonpartisan analysis confirms that the benefits of Trump's "Big, Beautiful" Bill are dramatically skewed toward the wealthy while leaving struggling families WORSE off. In short: families lose, billionaires win.

411955

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

Tax cuts do not juice economic growth or come close to paying for themselves. JCT examined the tax cuts in the reconciliation bill. Economic growth reduces the cost of $3.8 trillion of tax cuts to...$3.7 trillion. GDP growth would increase from 1.83% to 1.86%

000

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 16/05/2025

The House reconciliation bill is not fiscally responsible. When Republicans say "it has the most savings of any reconciliation bill ever," they are ignoring all the new spending and tax cuts.

0112

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

Another example of the inefficiencies and red tape caused by DOGE. Rather than giving federal employees credit cards to buy pens and printer paper, DOGE wants another level of approvals. Then they sit on the request so the agency must sit idle

150

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Punchbowl has a schedule for planned House reconciliation markups. Mark your calendars!

111

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

2 data points to watch at 4pm today for gov't finances Daily Treasury statement - how much was tax day revenue? In 2024, 1/4 of all the electronic tax payments made over the last 6 months came on 4/15. Major Foreign Holders of Debt - Did the countries holding U.S. debt change from Jan to Feb?

020

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Senate Budget Committee @senatebudget.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

ICYMI: CBO’s latest estimate is that the disastrous Republican budget plan will put us $52 TRILLION in debt over the next 30 years.

Meme from High School Musical. Text: "T as in Troy?" "No Gabriella, T as in $52 TRILLION in debt."

3189

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social

317182

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

This Admin is considering shrinking the IRS by 50% to levels not seen since 1960. @budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade. Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.

513262

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

Trump said the best way to juice the economy was to pass his tax cuts, but that's dead wrong. The Congressional Budget Office found that extending Trump's tax cuts would make the economy worse, not better. But what they definitely would do is give households in the top 0.1% a $278,000 tax cut.

416558

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

There's no reason to think that Republicans won't amend the budget and add reconciliation instructions in the Senate. But you're right. If the House budget passes the Senate unchanged and there's no Senate instructions, the "big beautiful bill" could be filibustered.

120

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

There's nothing unusual about that. The budget in 2017 that teed up the Trump tax tax cuts only included reconciliation instructions for the House, and the Senate added it's own.

110

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

The House and Senate often defer to the other chamber. The House wrote the provisions that apply to the House, and after it passes, they expect the Senate will add in the provisions that apply to the Senate. It just means the Senate must make changes, if only to add in their part

110

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Kathleen Romig @kathleenromig.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

DOGE has announced a total of 45 Social Security field office closures--so far. SSA has 1,200 field offices where people can receive in-person help getting benefits, updating records, enrolling in Medicare & more. They served 30M applicants & beneficiaries in 2023 — nearly 120K *per day*.

531040553

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

The House Budget doesn't have Senate reconciliation instructions. If the Senate passes it unchanged, there can be no FY25 reconciliation bill. www.politico.com/live-updates...

241

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Elon is claiming that the payments Lutheran Services Florida are "illegal." Those payments are because the organization provides Head Start to children in the community. Does he want it to be illegal to send your child to pre-k? Here's the funding it received: www.usaspending.gov/recipient/75...

294

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Republicans are using crazy accounting to justify their deficit-financed tax cuts. Try telling Netflix that you no longer need to pay because you used to subscribe and paid for several months so it should be free now. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

141

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Adrianna McIntyre @adrianna.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Summed up, the proposed Medicaid cuts in the GOP's menu of reconciliation ideas ($2.3T) make up over one-third of the total proposed cuts (~$5.5T). But it's not obvious that you can just add these policies up in a 1+1=2 sort of fashion — the policies interact with each other.

55122

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

If you're an awesome Comms Director, come work with me at the Senate Budget Committee as we explain to America that it's a bad idea to add $4.6 trillion of debt to give tax cuts to the wealthy.

042

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

When Republicans are debating whether to pay for their tax cuts, they are debating whether the national debt should increase by 20% or 30% over the next decade. Even without doing any other spending or tax cuts.

032

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Molly Reynolds @mollyereynolds.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

The story of this day is a story of a threat to our democracy. But it is also a story that happened to real people--people who just got up and went to work to serve their country and faced unspeakable violence for doing so, and, beyond that, people who call this city, in all its messiness, home.

03012

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

New piece from me, @brendanvduke.bsky.social, and Sophie Cohen on why using a current policy baseline for TCJA is a major gimmick. Crapo's argument is dead wrong. What he's asking for is not parity - it's special treatment that no program has ever received. www.americanprogress.org/article/repu...

americanprogress.org

Republican Tax Legislators’ Potential Framework for Extending Trump’s Tax Cuts Is a Gimmick That Would Cost More Than Advertised

Using a current policy baseline to mask the cost of extending Trump’s tax cuts is a gimmick that cannot change the fact that doing so would increase the deficit.

34924

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

When Elon said it, he said they'll "take aim at" the list, which is not quite as strong as Vivek saying he would defund it. Let's just take aim at veterans and preschoolers and the Coast Guard www.wsj.com/opinion/musk...

110

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Musk and Vivek are the co-chairs of the DOGE committee. Sometimes Vivek has called for the cuts, sometimes DOGE has.

100

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Vivek Ramaswamy, the co-Chair of DOGE, has called to defund the entire list. I don't think it's exaggeration to point out what's on the list. He wants to cut 1,200 programs. Some are "all Federal prisons" or "the entire Coast Guard."

020

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Vivek Ramaswamy, the co-Chair of DOGE, says he wants to "de-fund" the entire list. What am I exaggerating?

120

Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer

Joshua Smith @smithmachine.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

With a Dem President: Rs – We can't raise the debt limit without spending cuts or we'll uhhh risk fiscal catastrophe or something? With an R President: Rs – Let's pair this debt limit increase with tax cuts!

041

Tyler Evilsizer @tylerevilsizer.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

As I understand it, the immigration surge plays a role since the household survey is pegged to year-old Census data and doesn't adjust as nimbly to big changes in population. If that's it, the gap should diminish as the surge diminished early this year and Census catches up

020