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The Budget Lab

@budgetlab.bsky.social
2.6K followers 5 following 51 posts

The Budget Lab at Yale is a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal proposals for the American economy.

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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
@natasharsarin.bsky.social joined @npr.org “Marketplace” host @kairyssdal.bsky.social to talk about the economic implications of declining immigration. www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...
marketplace.org
Immigration to the U.S. has steeply declined. The economic impact will last decades
“I worry about the longer-term consequences here,” said Natasha Sarin, president and co-founder or the Yale Budget Lab. “Importantly, they're not consequences that can be reversed.”
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has caused widespread disruption in oil markets, raising U.S. oil prices by about $25 per barrel. What might this mean for the U.S. economy? Read the new @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/wha...
budgetlab.yale.edu
What Are the Macroeconomic Implications of Recent Turmoil in Oil Markets?
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Webinar on Monday, February 9 at 12:10pm ET. "Tariffs, AI, and Our Economic Futures: Lessons Learned in the First Year of the Administration and What Lies Ahead." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
The full report can be found on @budgetlab.bsky.social website here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/rea...
budgetlab.yale.edu
The Real Super Bowl LX Postgame Show: Reporting and Taxing Sports Betting & Fantasy Winnings
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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
With the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, I got to work on some of my favorite things: Sports, Booze, and Taxes.
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
@budgetlab.bsky.social analysis is cited in Thomas Edsall's @nytimes.com column "Why the 'Affordability Hoax' Is a Trap for Trump." www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Why the ‘Affordability Hoax’ Is a Trap for Trump
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Today. Nov. 12 at 12:10pm ET. Join the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
New report this morning from @budgetlab.bsky.social thinking through the challenges of distributional fiscal analysis when a policy is deficit-financed. We talk about the issues and present our preferred methodology. 1/7
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
New report today featured in @financialtimes.com article, "AI is not killing jobs," by @senojerialc.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/c9f9...
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Tomorrow. September 30 at noon EDT. Join this timely webinar to discuss tariffs in an uncertain legal environment. Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update out tonight, incorporating the heavy truck, furniture, and pharmaceutical tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday. Details are still sparse; we will update in the future as more specifics about the policy are published. In brief... 1/10
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Join us Tuesday, September 30 at noon EDT for the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar "Tariffs in an Uncertain Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi... Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
New report from @budgetlab.bsky.social about the effects of tariffs on poverty. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eff...
budgetlab.yale.edu
The Effect of Tariffs on Poverty
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all tariffs through Sept 3. This is a major update. We: • incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares; • show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026. In brief... 1/12
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
@natasharsarin.bsky.social spoke with @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social on where the economy is going and @budgetlab.bsky.social's latest work. Listen here: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump vs. the U.S. Economy
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all 2025 tariffs through today, including the higher 50% rate on India. In brief... 1/10
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the Administration's new list of "reciprocal" tariffs published last night and going into effect August 7, as well as maintaining the 25% rate on Mexico. In brief... 1/10
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 25% tariff on India, up from our previously-assumed 10% and which goes into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief... 1/10
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
Listen to @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @npr.org discuss the latest on tariffs with @steveinskeep.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/07/28/n...
npr.org
The next wave of Trump tariffs are expected to go into effect on Friday
NPR speaks with Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale, about trade deals and tariffs ahead of a Friday deadline imposed by President Trump.
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief... 1/10
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/r... 10/10
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/r... 10/10
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
@tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com includes @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis in latest article. Read the full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/dis...
budgetlab.yale.edu
Distributional Effects of Selected Provisions of the House and Senate Reconciliation Bills
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Today. Noon ET. Join this timely webinar about the macroeconomics impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
Watch @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @11thhourmsnbc.bsky.social discuss the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social report about the combined distributional effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and of tariffs: www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/wa...
msnbc.com
'The largest redistribution from poor to rich in a single bill in American history.' Trump tariffs, budget bill could cut U.S. household income, new report says
New research from the Yale Budget Lab suggests that the combination of tariffs and the GOP budget bill could cut the after-tax incomes of many American households. Ernie Tedeschi and Justin Wolfers di...
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Register for the next @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar on Monday, June 23 at noon ET. A timely discussion of the potential macroeconomic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
@budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update through June 16, incorporating: • Broader scope for the 50% steel & aluminum tariffs to include some steel-derivative products. • Relaxation of Chinese export restrictions on magnets & rate minerals. • New distributional methodology. 1/9
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Jacob Bogage @jacobbogage.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
👀 Remember these ~distributions~ on Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”? Then, boy, do I have news for you. Taking the bill and tariffs together, the bottom **80%** of households are worse off, @budgetlab.bsky.social found.
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis about the combined distributional effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and Tariffs in @jacobbogage.bsky.social's Early Brief @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the...
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Two new pieces from @budgetlab.bsky.social (links at end). First, TBL finds that the rise in interest rates associated with OBBBA will raise consumer & business costs. E.g., by 2030, the annual mortgage payment on a typical home purchase would rise by >$1,000, & by $4,000 by 2030. 1/3
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
@budgetlab.bsky.social report featured in @axios.com today. www.axios.com/2025/06/05/t...
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report: budgetlab.yale.edu/r... 8/8
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
@budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update is out, incorporating 1) reinstatement of the IEEPA tariffs, given the appeals court stay of the USCIT ruling; 2) the 50% steel & aluminum tariffs announced by the Administration; 3) recent increases in USMCA-compliant trade with Canada. 1/8
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Watch @natasharsarin.bsky.social on @cnbc.com this morning discuss the latest news on tariffs and the economy. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...
cnbc.com
To cut or not to cut? Experts debate the Fed's next steps
Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist and former Trump White House NEC chief economist, and Natasha Sarin, Yale professor and former Biden Treasury Department official, join 'Squ...
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect? The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff. 1/7
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Read the new report from @budgetlab.bsky.social that scores the budgetary effects of the May 2025 Tax Bill. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...
budgetlab.yale.edu
Budgetary Effects of the May 2025 Tax Bill (Preliminary)
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Great to be with Sara Sidner @cnn.com last night talking tariffs and @budgetlab.bsky.social new analysis of the China pause. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbxP...
youtube.com
Natasha Sarin on US-China Tariffs
YouTube video by The Budget Lab
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
New tariff update today from @budgetlab.bsky.social incorporating 1. Today's announcement of lower US-China tariffs (10% instead of 125% reciprocal tariffs); 2. The May 8 US-UK trade deal; and, 3. The April 29 auto tariff rebate announcement. Some high level takeaways: 1/13
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Listen to @budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social on the @theatlantic.com podcast episode that explores the impact of tariffs and consumer behavior.
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
@budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social and @ernietedeschi.bsky.social in the @nytimes.com
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Join @budgetlab.bsky.social for our next TCJA webinar, "The Child Tax Credit," on Thursday, April 17 at noon EDT. @dylanmatt.bsky.social @vox.com will moderate discussion with @meganacurran.bsky.social, Joshua McCabe, and John Ricco. Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Today. April 16 at 10am ET. Tune into @npr.org 1A to hear @ernietedeschi.bsky.social discuss the latest on tariffs and @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis. the1a.org
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