Sign in

natasharsarin.bsky.social

@natasharsarin.bsky.social
1.6K followers 165 following 59 posts

Professor, Yale Law School & Yale School of Management; President @budgetlab.bsky.social; Contributing columnist @postopinions.bsky.social Former Counselor at Treasury, Professor Penn Law & Wharton www.natashasarin.com

PostsRepliesMedia
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
This bill spends $3T+ to make the tax code more complex and Americans less healthy In every regard, it is a mistake: Grows deficits but shrinks the economy, makes gun silencers more available but healthy food less so My latest from @postopinions.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | 6 things you probably didn’t know were in Trump’s mega-bill
Trump’s budget bill includes eliminating tax on gun silencers, a garden of heroes and more.
1104
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Here is what the distribution of the reconciliation bill looks like including tariffs, hot off @budgetlab.bsky.social presses. Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households. Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...
030
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Columbia Institute of Global Politics @columbiaigp.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
LIVE NOW at @columbiaigp.bsky.social 🔴 @awhf.bsky.social, R. Glenn Hubbard, Jennifer Klein, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, & Richard Clarida discuss the far-reaching implications of the federal budget bill Tune in: youtube.com/live/sxYxjDL... @columbiasipa.bsky.social @columbiauniversity.bsky.social
youtube.com
IGP Rapid Response: The Fight Over the Federal Budget
YouTube video by Columbia SIPA
032
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Great to be with Wolf Blitzer and @pamelabrowncnn.bsky.social on @cnn.com Situation Room this morning talking China and the latest inflation numbers. Link here: youtu.be/yQM08o-jM5Q
youtu.be
Natasha Sarin on U.S.-China Trade Talks, Inflation, and Tariffs
YouTube video by The Budget Lab
010
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
So fun to join @econjared today for lunch with a healthy dose of econ to talk reconciliation, interest rates, and why we should invest in -- not gut -- the IRS. Link to our conversation here: natashasarin32.substack.com/p/7280ed14-6...
natashasarin32.substack.com
Natasha Sarin
Click to read Natasha Sarin, a Substack publication. Launched 3 hours ago.
010
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
@natasharsarin.bsky.social: Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 preventable deaths. Some estimates based on existing research on Medicaid effects on mortality: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
21370134
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 deaths. My latest from @postopinions.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 deaths
It is hard to articulate a justification for ballooning the federal debt in service of saving fewer lives.
264
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Wonderful to join @pbsnews.org last night to talk about the risks of our high and rising national debt. Link here: www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
pbs.org
Explaining the national debt, how we got here and what it means for future generations
Republicans in Congress are hashing out a new tax cut and spending bill that's projected to add trillions to the national debt. Economics correspondent Paul Solman explains the ballooning national deb...
021
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
This is unlawful, un-American, and ultimately -- like so much we've seen recently -- will serve to make this country less great And from a President who just last year thought college grads should get green cards so we retain the brightest foreign talent www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Says It Is Halting Harvard’s Ability to Enroll International Students
040
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
Republicans are haggling over the details of how much to cut Medicaid and food stamps while also trying to give bigger tax breaks to the richest Americans. @danamilbank.bsky.social, James Hohmann and @natasharsarin.bsky.social discuss whether Republicans can get this bill over the finish line:
wapo.st
Opinion | There’s nothing beautiful about this big bill - The Washington Post
Republicans are haggling over the details of how much to cut Medicaid and food stamps while also trying to give bigger tax breaks to the richest Americans. Meanwhile, the rating agency Moody’s has dow...
364
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Here are three arguments the Trump administration might try to make to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status, none of which should hold water in the eyes of the law, @natasharsarin.bsky.social writes: wapo.st/42ScSPt
2103
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Great to be with Sara Sidner @cnn.com last night talking tariffs and @budgetlab.bsky.social new analysis of the China pause. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbxP...
youtube.com
Natasha Sarin on US-China Tariffs
YouTube video by The Budget Lab
042
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Center for American Progress @americanprogress.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Join us today at 12 pm for an important conversation between @neeratanden.bsky.social and @larrysummers.bsky.social on the fiscal impact of DOGE's IRS layoffs. Janet Holtzblatt, @jessicabriedl.bsky.social, and @natasharsarin.bsky.social will also be joining in a panel discussion:
americanprogress.org
The Fiscal Impact of DOGE’s IRS Layoffs
Please join the Center for American Progress for an event featuring former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and an expert panel on the importance of adequate funding for tax enforcement…
0116
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
No, the Administration cannot legally revoke Harvard's -- or other nonprofits' -- tax-exempt status. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Trump’s attack on nonprofits has an ugly history
The White House’s war on Harvard is testing the guardrails that Congress put in place after Watergate.
031
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
"The question facing Republican lawmakers in Congress now is a math one," @natasharsarin.bsky.social writes. "They are failing that arithmetic test." wapo.st/43izlVU
wapo.st
Opinion | The Trump administration’s tax math doesn’t add up
Budget gimmicks for Congress mean higher deficits and borrowing costs for the rest of us.
273
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
This is a bonker bananas statement that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how the IRS works and flies in the face of the vast empirical evidence that shows dollars spent on tax enforcement activities have huge returns. subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
subscriber.politicopro.com
POLITICO Pro: Bessent: More IRS auditors doesn't mean more revenue
His comments to lawmakers come amid steep cuts in the ranks of enforcement personnel at the agency.
243
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Tax cuts for all — paid for by none — isn’t an equation that makes much sense for the American economy. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | The Trump administration’s tax math doesn’t add up
Budget gimmicks for Congress mean higher deficits and borrowing costs for the rest of us.
020
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Great to be with @cnn.com this morning on the market's latest movements, Fed independence, and @budgetlab.bsky.social's work on how political risks threaten our safe harbor status. Link here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF7-...
youtube.com
Natasha Sarin on the economic fallout of tariff policy changes
YouTube video by The Budget Lab
000
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
The tax code has protections against exactly this: Section 7217 makes it illegal for political officials within the Executive Branch -- incl the President -- to request an audit or investigation of a particular taxpayer Need an investigation to revoke tax exempt status. www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/p...
cnn.com
IRS making plans to rescind Harvard’s tax-exempt status | CNN Politics
The Internal Revenue Service is making plans to rescind the tax-exempt status of Harvard University, according to two sources familiar with the matter, which would be an extraordinary step of retaliat...
102
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
This is terrible, terrible, terrible news for the American people and the tax system. The only winners are high-cost tax preparers. When fully built out, Direct File would've saved taxpayers ~$20B annually. apnews.com/article/irs-...
apnews.com
Trump administration plans to end the IRS Direct File program for free tax filing, AP sources say
The Trump administration plans to eliminate the IRS’ Direct File program. That's the electronic system for filing tax returns directly to the agency for free.
162
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Wonderful to discuss tariffs, Tax Day, and our work @budgetlab.bsky.social with @stephruhle.bsky.social on @msnbc.com's 11th Hour last night Also featuring the great @gilliantett.bsky.social, @jonallendc.bsky.social and @lukebroadwater.bsky.social Link here: www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/wa...
msnbc.com
'Traders are like vultures': Who's raking in money during the tariff chaos
As the Trump administration keeps talking about the trade deals they're going to make, American businesses and consumers are caught in the whiplash of the tariff policies. But Wall Street traders are ...
044
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Exactly this, from @natasharsarin.bsky.social & former IRS commissioner Danny Werfel: "In other words, an extremely diminished IRS could unlock a race to the bottom and create an evasion advantage for those who are comfortable skirting their tax bills." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
17516141
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
This team is so brilliant, and I'm so grateful to get to learn from them each day. Also so grateful for the icon that is @marthagimbel.bsky.social! Starting something is hard and scary. But much less so with Martha at the helm. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social are so beyond fortunate to have her.
020
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/
1127
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Today is Tax Day. And while few people enjoy paying taxes, they want a fair system. That system is in danger right now. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social pinions with former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel is here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | It’s not just tariffs. Trump is creating chaos with taxes, too.
Gutting the IRS enables more people to cheat the government system.
093
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Great to be back with Squawk Box @cnbc.com discussing the impact of tariffs on inflation and our work at @budgetlab.bsky.social www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...
cnbc.com
Data says inflation would be coming down if not for trade war escalation, says Yale's Natasha Sarin
Natasha Sarin, former Biden Treasury official, and Joe Lavorgna, former Trump NEC chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss each expert's thoughts on the economy, Lavorgna's thoughts on the tariff...
010
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
New from @budgetlab.bsky.social e_Budget_Lab on tariff latest. In aggregate, tariffs are basically at same level they were prior to this "pause" / China increases. And that level is *high* Highest since 1909. Resulting in higher prices for American families, ~$4,400 annually in short-run.
021
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way. We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.
410144
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Jacob Bogage @jacobbogage.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
This morning in my “Big, beautiful bill” newsletter: The potential cost of tax noncompliance. IRS’s deal to share confidential taxpayer data with ICE could cost up to *$479 billion* over 10 years, @natasharsarin.bsky.social’s team at Yale finds. More here: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
One of the biggest fears many tax experts have with the agreement between Treasury and DHS is that it will discourage not just undocumented immigrants, but also untold numbers of other taxpayers, from filing their taxes.
For the purposes of the GOP tax bill, that has a monetary cost, and a big one. Sarin’s team at Yale found that rising tax noncompliance from undocumented immigrants — spurred by this new arrangement to provide tax data to immigration officials — could cost up to $479 billion over 10 years.
Some context: That’s nearly a quarter of the $2 trillion House Republicans say they want to cut over 10 years.
89443
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
So thrilled to get to speak with @kyla.bsky.social this week on the importance of funding the IRS -- and the risks of decimating the agency. Here's a link to our conversation for @leadingindicator.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKqz...
youtube.com
Economist Explains Why DOGE Cuts to the IRS Will Backfire
YouTube video by Leading Indicator
032
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Grateful to @jacobbogage.bsky.social for covering @budgetlab.bsky.social new report on the distributional effects of the House-passed Budget Resolution. Overall: huge tax cuts for higher-income families are partially paid for by cutting healthcare and SNAP, *raising costs* for the bottom 40%
22214
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
"When you meet those dying children and look into their eyes and hold their hands and feel faint heartbeats flutter, you can’t bear the gleeful laughter. You see children just like your own and hang your head in shame." www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Musk Said No One Has Died Since Aid Was Cut. That Isn’t True.
A journey through the front lines of global poverty shows that when the world’s richest men slash aid for the world’s poorest children, the result is sickness, starvation and death.
001
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Groundwork Collaborative @groundwork.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
The top 1% already dodges $200 billion in taxes every year. Slashing the IRS means less enforcement ➡️ billions back in the pockets of wealthy tax cheats. It’s anything but efficient. @natasharsarin.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
1106
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
DOGE says its saving $100 billion. But it's about to lose a lot more. Cuts to the IRS will backfire and add to the deficit by giving tax evaders a free pass. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social s Link here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | DOGE says it’s saving $100 billion. It’s about to lose a lot more.
Cuts to the IRS will backfire by giving tax evaders a free pass.
1105
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Great to be with Wolf Blitzer @cnnsitroom.bsky.social this morning on inflation and tariff risks. Link here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=slJy...
youtube.com
Natasha Sarin on Inflation and Tariffs
YouTube video by The Budget Lab
011
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Here is what an IRS cafeteria in Austin looked like just a few years ago. With an understaffed IRS, people were waiting years for these returns to be processed and refunds issued No one picked up when you called with questions. Destroying the agency means more photos like
033
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Every dollar spent on high-end tax enforcement generates $12 for the fisc By gutting the IRS, this Admin is making a giant giveaway for tax cheats the crux of its tax agenda Today we don't collect $600B/year in taxes owed. That will jump if these plans go through www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/u...
t.co
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/us/politics/irs-job-cuts.html?smid=url-share
031
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
It was great to join @msnbc.com this afternoon to discuss the risks associated with DOGE's actions. Watch here: www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/...
msnbc.com
Judge rules OPM cannot fire federal workers at other agencies
A judge ruled the OPM cannot directly fire federal workers at other agencies and that they have to rescind their mass firing memo. Former U.S. attorney Barbara McQuade and Yale Law School Professor Na...
000
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Really looking forward to this timely conversation tomorrow on tax policy in 2025 with George Callas @arnoldventures.bsky.social and @brendanvduke.bsky.social @centeronbudget.bsky.social moderated by @neilirwin.bsky.social @axios.com Join us! Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
yale.zoom.us
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: TCJA Frameworks 2025: What's Ahead. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
As the debate over the potential expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) begins, The Budget Lab will host a series of discussions to provide context on the upcoming policy changes and their fis...
011
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
Lauren Bauer @laurenhlb.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
IRS Commissioners from every administration from Reagan through Trump 1: cutting the IRS doesn't add up. (No kidding.) www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump Just Fired 6,700 I.R.S. Workers in the Middle of Tax Season. That’s a Huge Mistake. (Gift Article)
The Trump administration’s decision to fire over 6,000 I.R.S. workers will make the government less effective and less efficient, not more.
294
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
I am devastated for the IRS and its employees, who believe so deeply in the importance of a tax system that works for all Americans. It is worth shouting from the rooftops that this purge is going to COST MONEY and make fighting fraud HARDER.
1123
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
To call this an unusual or alarming request is an understatement. This type of access poses an enormous threat to data privacy, national security, and the stability of our tax system. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
washingtonpost.com
Musk’s DOGE seeks access to personal taxpayer data, raising alarm at IRS
Musk’s DOGE seeks access to personal taxpayer data at IRS
110
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Great to be with Major Garrett @cbseveningnews.bsky.social last night on the risks of compromising the Treasury payments system: www.cbsnews.com/video/former...
cbsnews.com
Former Treasury employee says DOGE access raises "real security questions"
Elon Musk's access to the Treasury's payment system is raising concerns about federal funding and personal data. Major Garrett speaks to a former Treasury employee about the role of the agency and the...
021
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
The Budget Lab @budgetlab.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Post Next 50! Thrilled for @budgetlab.bsky.social's @natasharsarin.bsky.social named by @washingtonpost.com as part of the first-ever Post Next 50, a list of people whose work will shape our society. wapo.st/NatashaSarin
221
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Thrilled to be recognized by @washingtonpost.com as part of their inaugural Post Next 50, a list of people whose work will shape our society. wapo.st/NatashaSarin
wapo.st
Post Next 50
50 people shaping our society in 2025
000
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Five former Treasury Secretaries: Our Democracy is Under Siege www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jacob Lew, Janet Yellen: DOGE Is a Threat to U.S. Democracy.
Former Secretaries Rubin, Summers, Geithner, Lew and Yellen argue that DOGE is a threat to America.
000
Reposted by @natasharsarin.bsky.social
New York Times Opinion @nytopinion.nytimes.com · 10/02/2025
“Any hint of the selective suspension of congressionally authorized payments will be a breach of trust and ultimately, a form of default,” five former U.S. Treasury secretaries write. “And our credibility, once lost, will prove difficult to regain.”
nytimes.com
Opinion | Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jacob Lew, Janet Yellen: DOGE Is a Threat to U.S. Democracy.
Former Secretaries Rubin, Summers, Geithner, Lew and Yellen argue that DOGE is a threat to America.
28615192
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
I am looking to hire a pre-doc starting this summer at @yale.edu Tobin Center focused on public finance, with the chance to work with my great coauthors like Larry Summers, Sylvain Catherine, and Max Miller. Please share widely and apply! tobin.yale.edu/opportunitie...
tobin.yale.edu
Research on Public Finance and Inequality in the U.S.
010
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Hi friends, I'm late but taking the leap over here, so please follow me for econ musings, @budgetlab.bsky.social latest, and occasional dog content.
073
natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
My latest this week in @postopinions.bsky.social -- Elon Musk has your social security number. It's as scary as it sounds. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Elon Musk has your Social Security number. It’s as scary as it sounds.
There is no legitimate reason for the ‘DOGE’ to have access to the federal payment system.
2166