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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸

@turtle4th.bsky.social
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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 4h
I took action with Indivisible. Will you join me? Use this link to sign up: www.mobilize.us/indivisible/...
mobilize.us
Hands Off Our Vote in 2026! · Indivisible
**Join the Election Defenders!** Hands Off Our Vote is Indivisible’s national program to ensure all eligible voters get to cast their ballot, every ballot is counted, and the results are honored. **B...
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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Corporate profits and tax revenues grew together until the Trump tax cuts. Now corporate profits are at an all-time high while tax receipts are at their lowest since 2021.
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MIT Election Lab @mitelectionlab.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Are you passionate about election data? Want to help guide a team of researchers in managing the data science workflow of the MIT Election Lab? We're looking for a new Research Director! Share and tell your networks about this exciting new opportunity.Learn more about this position: buff.ly/JT9HC3z
buff.ly
Research Scientist 2
MIT - Research Scientist 2 - Cambridge MA 02139
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Democracy Docket @democracydocket.com · 05/10/2026
TODAY: Early voting begins in Maine and California, and the process has already started in many other states across the U.S. Are YOU registered to vote? As the Trump administration ramps up its attacks on voting, it’s time to check your registration status: demdock.com/4gRtE8P
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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
@jahimes.bsky.social I am one of your constituents. Please take action on AI safety. 80000hours.org/podcast/epis...
80000hours.org
How we get from AI cyberattacks to human extinction | 80,000 Hours
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/08/2026
‘Warsh spoke of one over-arching strategic consideration: It is high time to declare an end to the emergency state of monetary policy. That means that it is no longer appropriate to maintain the emergency settings established in the depths of the GFC.’ stephenroach.substack.com/p/warsh-on-p...
stephenroach.substack.com
Warsh On Point
Imporant message on the normalization of monetary policy
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
In my most recent piece for Foreign Affairs, I argue that we actually know quite a lot about how large trade imbalances eventually get resolved – and that the adjustment is almost always painful. The key question, then, is how it will be distributed. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
A Great Rebalancing Is Coming
Who will bear the costs of a global trade adjustment?
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 27/08/2026
Albert Edwards: “Ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could prove to be the biggest investment mistake of the decade.” www.businessinsider.com/chinese-econ...
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Diesel and gasoil crack spreads (i.e., refining margins) are at their highest level *ever* on a 10-day moving average basis. Jet fuel cracks still slightly off prior pinch-point crises in March and before that in 2022; while diesel driving it, jet fuel naturally comimng along for the ride.
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Trump's job approval at low point of 34%, according to Pew Decline this term primarily from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents: approval down from 84% in Feb '25 to 69% now Partisan gaps in both Trump terms are widest in more than seven decades (followed by gaps under Biden and Obama)
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 08/08/2026
‘Hourly earnings are not growing fast enough to keep pace with inflation and the lost purchasing power will land like one more punch to the gut for workers.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Allison Gill @muellershewrote.com · 26/07/2026
LOL
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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 25/07/2026
This is another step towards a one-party state: only give government grants to your political friends www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/b...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Admits Canceling Grants to States That Did Not Vote for Him (Gift Article)
Federal officials said in court documents that they halted billions of dollars in funding for energy projects to states “based solely” on whether they backed President Trump in the 2024 election.
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Protect Democracy @protectdemocracy.org · 19/07/2026
Looking for ways to help keep our elections free, fair, & safe? 🤝 Volunteer w/groups like VoteRiders.org to help others get to the polls 📞 Save the Voter Protection # at 866ourvote.org 🕊️ Join local Election Observer/Peacekeeper programs like TurnoutSunday.com More: protdem.org/community-resilience
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
You think Troy Jackson just fell out of a coconut tree?
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Protect Democracy @protectdemocracy.org · 04/07/2026
If you're feeling the heavy weight of polarization and deep distrust in our institutions, join us in taking steady, intentional steps toward action. We outline how we can start building our civic muscles this holiday weekend and beyond: www.ifyoucankeepit.org/p/who-are-am…
A quote in red at the top reads: "The presumption, now more than ever, is that the keeping and the tending of America belongs to someone else; to institutions, elected officials, and public figures. That presumption is wrong. A democracy cannot be sustained by any one person or group. Ours has lasted this long because everyday Americans chose, in Theodore Roosevelt’s words, to ‘do what you can, with what you have, where you are.’" The phrase "If you can keep it" is in red at the bottom.
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
US data center construction reached another new record high in official data released today, hitting a pace of nearly $60B/yr (and this only includes data center facilities, not the expensive computers within) Spending's up 23% over the last year and 328% since ChatGPT's launch
A graph of data center construction spending
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
NYT polls show Ds have Senate path, but it's close... within margin of error of flipping enough seats to win 51 NC likeliest to flip, ME toss up Warning in OH/AK/TX/IA: % wanting R control 3-6 pts higher than % voting R; Rs have room to grow if majority looks shaky www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/u...
nytimes.com
Control of the Senate Is Up for Grabs, Times/Siena Polls Find
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 01/07/2026
‘Conventional wisdom holds that the current bull market is all about AI. But if investors' gains are down to a "large deficit model", ​rather than large language models, it means the boom is vulnerable to any tightening of Uncle Sam's budget.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
@michaelpettis.bsky.social
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PoliticsGirl @politicsgirl.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Since when do corporate lobby groups get to dictate the quality of our food? CLICK THE LINK to tell Big Pork to stop trying to eliminate state's rights to demand better food! act.link/gi-2y5lm
youtube.com
They're Taking Our Choice Away
Since when do corporate lobby groups get to dictate the quality of ...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
FREIGHTWAVES: “.. Truckload spot rates hit an all-time high, topping the COVID peak.”
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 20/05/2026
'Global policy rates and commodity prices are rising, tightening financial conditions, with futures markets signalling there is more to come. The environment is becoming less friendly for risk assets.' blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories... by Simon White
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
BARCLAYS: “.. Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — ‘get me out of duration!’” (via @johnauthers.bsky.social)
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
High in STRONG disapproval of Trump (52%) and low in strong approval (20%) -> widest gap of term (32 pts) And noteworthy result about key segment of Trump base: last month his approval with White, non-college Americans dipped below 50% for first time in this poll; it's still underwater at 46% today
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
US spending on data centers & computers has grown so much that it's larger than basically all other physical investment categories—more than all single-family housing construction, factories, power plants, industrial equipment, apartments I'm running out of points of comparison
a graph of AI investment vs other physical investment categories
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Trump's approval rating is down 14 points since start of term, from 53% in Feb '25 to 39% now Young people and less politically engaged have seen biggest drops (20+ pts) New lows today with '24 non-voters (30%) and men <45 (36%) And White non-college number underwater for first time (48% approve)
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Core PCE was firm in February because of goods. Goods inflation was +0.84%, a huge month-over-month increase (10.6% annualized) and the largest since Jan 2022. Core goods prices rose 2.3% over 12 months. If you exclude 2021-23, it's the highest run rate since 1991.
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
🛢️#Inflation reacceleration **before** the oil price shock 🔥February 2026: inflationary short-term dynamics 🔺Headline inflation ⤴️3-month 4.1% ⤴️6-month 3.4% ↔️12-month 2.8% 🔺Core PCE inflation ⤴️3-month 4.4% ⤴️ 6-month 3.4% ⤵️12-month 3.0%
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Republicans hold onto their seat in Georgia's 14th, but Democrats post another BIG overperformance It's a district Trump carried by 37 pts, so this is a blue shift of over 20 pts Most outstanding votes are in counties Democrat is leading (Cobb + Paulding), so current R margin should narrow... 1/2
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." www.ft.com/content/49e3... via @ft
ft.com
The old global economic order is dead
China and others must think afresh as the US steps away from its role as balancer of last resort
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
1. Iran establishes a toll for Hormuz passage. 2. China begins issuing licenses for rare earths. “.. The lesson is that the way to deal with American economic coercion is to fight back.” @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/b...
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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/31/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The People Trump Pardoned Are on a Crime Spree
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Relevant again today - my NYT op-ed from November: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Literally un-American in contradicting our deeply held civic norms and traditions
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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
share.newsbreak.com/hwclcumn
share.newsbreak.com
GOP Lawmakers Storm Out Of Classified Iran War Briefing: ‘We Were Misled!’ - NewsBreak
Frustration spilled into public view Wednesday after several Republican lawmakers walked out of a classified briefing on the U.S. conflict with Iran, sayin
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
JUST IN: Democrats tonight have flipped a GOP-held state House seat in Florida. And not just any seat: This is the district that contains Mar-a-Lago. (It voted for Trump by 11% in 2024). That's right: Trump will now be represented by a Democrat, Emily Gregory, in Tallahassee.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 24/03/2026
‘Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. With the Fed funds rate at 3.64%, these rising inflation projections are expected to push the real policy rate into negative territory next month for the first time since April 2023.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/03/24/u...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Lost count of all the times people scoffed at a 1970s-style inflation “double top.” Not as much laughter now. 😞
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The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
So dark. Kushner raises billions for his fund while the family of a soldier killed in Truml’s war gets help on Go Fund Me: www.gofundme.com/f/major-alex...
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Chris Murphy @chrismurphyct.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
The is the federal government telling news stations to provide favorable coverage of the war or their licenses will be pulled. A truly extraordinary moment. We aren't on the verge of a totalitarian takeover. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF IT. Act like it.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Unprecedented corruption. Literally asking for billions of dollars.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 12/03/2026
‘On Thursday, a gauge of expectations for inflation over the next year, known as the one-year break-even inflation rate, jumped to 4.62%. That is the highest level since June 2022, when the annual rate of the consumer-price index peaked at 9.1%.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/a-key-...
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Nicholas Brown @nicholasabrown.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
BESPOKE: "Oil is up 34.3% this week, which would be its biggest weekly change since at least 1985." #OOTT
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VoteHub @votehub.com · 07/03/2026
🚨 BREAKING — Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) officially withdraws his re-election bid, missing the 5pm PT filing deadline. He is the 32nd House Republican not to seek another term. The open seat improves Democrats’ chances of flipping CA-48. The newly drawn district voted Harris +3.
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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
@therickwilson.bsky.social @thewarningses.bsky.social @housedemocrats.bsky.social if this is not a top Democratic message then the party is politically incompetent. www.npr.org/2026/03/05/n...
npr.org
A Jan. 6 rioter pardoned by Trump was sentenced to life in prison for child sex abuse
Since receiving presidential pardons, dozens of former Capitol rioters have gotten into more legal trouble. In Florida, Andrew Paul Johnson was sentenced to life in prison for child sex abuse.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 03/03/2026
‘Commodities are attempting to break above a long-term downtrend versus global equities. The relative trend versus global bonds has also been stronger over the past few months.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/03/03/i... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 01/03/2026
‘Stronger commodity prices are generally consistent with better performance from value stocks vs growth stocks.’ www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
About 15% of Trump's '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling — the share has crept up since last year I pooled data from our four polls over the last two months to take a closer look at them (n=435, MOE: ±5.4 pts) (All polls done before U.S. strike on Iran, w/ field dates from 1/5-2/27) 1/4
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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
I cancelled my ChatGPT plus subscription today.
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