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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 10h

They sincerely believe the existential risk. It’s why the founders left OpenAI. The argument is very logical, and AI people have been talking about it for decades. youtu.be/RIJJB5B2lHU?...

youtu.be

A realistic path from rogue AI agents to human extinction

YouTube video by 80,000 Hours

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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Corporate profits and tax revenues grew together until the Trump tax cuts. Now corporate profits are at an all-time high while tax receipts are at their lowest since 2021.

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MIT Election Lab @mitelectionlab.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Are you passionate about election data? Want to help guide a team of researchers in managing the data science workflow of the MIT Election Lab? We're looking for a new Research Director! Share and tell your networks about this exciting new opportunity.Learn more about this position: buff.ly/JT9HC3z

buff.ly

Research Scientist 2

MIT - Research Scientist 2 - Cambridge MA 02139

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Democracy Docket @democracydocket.com · 05/10/2026

TODAY: Early voting begins in Maine and California, and the process has already started in many other states across the U.S. Are YOU registered to vote? As the Trump administration ramps up its attacks on voting, it’s time to check your registration status: demdock.com/4gRtE8P

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

How come there is not an AI safety X prize? Seems like a good way to bring some ideas to the table.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/08/2026

‘Warsh spoke of one over-arching strategic consideration: It is high time to declare an end to the emergency state of monetary policy. That means that it is no longer appropriate to maintain the emergency settings established in the depths of the GFC.’ stephenroach.substack.com/p/warsh-on-p...

stephenroach.substack.com

Warsh On Point

Imporant message on the normalization of monetary policy

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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

In my most recent piece for Foreign Affairs, I argue that we actually know quite a lot about how large trade imbalances eventually get resolved – and that the adjustment is almost always painful. The key question, then, is how it will be distributed. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

foreignaffairs.com

A Great Rebalancing Is Coming

Who will bear the costs of a global trade adjustment?

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 27/08/2026

Albert Edwards: “Ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could prove to be the biggest investment mistake of the decade.” www.businessinsider.com/chinese-econ...

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Diesel and gasoil crack spreads (i.e., refining margins) are at their highest level *ever* on a 10-day moving average basis. Jet fuel cracks still slightly off prior pinch-point crises in March and before that in 2022; while diesel driving it, jet fuel naturally comimng along for the ride.

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

It was very good. I noticed The Volatility Machine got a (deserved) shout out as well. I wish Setser would move to Bluesky instead of supporting Musk.

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

So, this would be the opposite of the intended effect?

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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Trump's job approval at low point of 34%, according to Pew Decline this term primarily from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents: approval down from 84% in Feb '25 to 69% now Partisan gaps in both Trump terms are widest in more than seven decades (followed by gaps under Biden and Obama)

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 08/08/2026

‘Hourly earnings are not growing fast enough to keep pace with inflation and the lost purchasing power will land like one more punch to the gut for workers.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Can you help me reconcile this with plummeting market implied inflation measures like the 1 year inflation swap?

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Looking forward to calculating the ROI in 10 years.

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Allison Gill @muellershewrote.com · 26/07/2026

LOL

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

What is the plan to not blow the WI governor race?

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Good article, but I think it misses one point. Many investors worry the biggest risk with TIPS is that reported CPI could understate true inflation, thus not protecting true real purchasing power.

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Wut is happening here? And the expression on her face.

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Typically when markets are repeatedly not acting the way the *experts* think they should, it’s a huge red flag that the experts are missing something. Assuming the markets are very dumb is usually risky.

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Protect Democracy @protectdemocracy.org · 19/07/2026

Looking for ways to help keep our elections free, fair, & safe? 🤝 Volunteer w/groups like VoteRiders.org to help others get to the polls 📞 Save the Voter Protection # at 866ourvote.org 🕊️ Join local Election Observer/Peacekeeper programs like TurnoutSunday.com More: protdem.org/community-resilience

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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

You think Troy Jackson just fell out of a coconut tree?

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Protect Democracy @protectdemocracy.org · 04/07/2026

If you're feeling the heavy weight of polarization and deep distrust in our institutions, join us in taking steady, intentional steps toward action. We outline how we can start building our civic muscles this holiday weekend and beyond: www.ifyoucankeepit.org/p/who-are-am…

A quote in red at the top reads: "The presumption, now more than ever, is that the keeping and the tending of America belongs to someone else; to institutions, elected officials, and public figures. That presumption is wrong. A democracy cannot be sustained by any one person or group. Ours has lasted this long because everyday Americans chose, in Theodore Roosevelt’s words, to ‘do what you can, with what you have, where you are.’" The phrase "If you can keep it" is in red at the bottom.

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

US data center construction reached another new record high in official data released today, hitting a pace of nearly $60B/yr (and this only includes data center facilities, not the expensive computers within) Spending's up 23% over the last year and 328% since ChatGPT's launch

A graph of data center construction spending

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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

NYT polls show Ds have Senate path, but it's close... within margin of error of flipping enough seats to win 51 NC likeliest to flip, ME toss up Warning in OH/AK/TX/IA: % wanting R control 3-6 pts higher than % voting R; Rs have room to grow if majority looks shaky www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/u...

nytimes.com

Control of the Senate Is Up for Grabs, Times/Siena Polls Find

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 01/07/2026

‘Conventional wisdom holds that the current bull market is all about AI. But if investors' gains are down to a "large deficit model", rather than large language models, it means the boom is vulnerable to any tightening of Uncle Sam's budget.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

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PoliticsGirl @politicsgirl.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Since when do corporate lobby groups get to dictate the quality of our food? CLICK THE LINK to tell Big Pork to stop trying to eliminate state's rights to demand better food! act.link/gi-2y5lm

youtube.com

They're Taking Our Choice Away

Since when do corporate lobby groups get to dictate the quality of ...

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

FREIGHTWAVES: “.. Truckload spot rates hit an all-time high, topping the COVID peak.”

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 20/05/2026

'Global policy rates and commodity prices are rising, tightening financial conditions, with futures markets signalling there is more to come. The environment is becoming less friendly for risk assets.' blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories... by Simon White

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

BARCLAYS: “.. Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — ‘get me out of duration!’” (via @johnauthers.bsky.social)

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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

High in STRONG disapproval of Trump (52%) and low in strong approval (20%) -> widest gap of term (32 pts) And noteworthy result about key segment of Trump base: last month his approval with White, non-college Americans dipped below 50% for first time in this poll; it's still underwater at 46% today

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

…affected by SoH as the rest of the economy.

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

…to the hyperscalers, who are willing to pay the most. That means rising input costs for the rest of the economy. But a disproportionate percentage of stock market profits come from AI infrastructure beneficiaries vs the rest of the economy. Which means the stock market may not be as adversely…

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

What’s unusual here is that we have a very large, price-insensitive source of demand (the hyperscalers) whose main priority is speed. In a normal scenario, if the price of the input doubled, demand would fall. Not in this case. Even if there are outright shortages, those inputs available will flow..

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

US spending on data centers & computers has grown so much that it's larger than basically all other physical investment categories—more than all single-family housing construction, factories, power plants, industrial equipment, apartments I'm running out of points of comparison

a graph of AI investment vs other physical investment categories

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Fourth Turning Capital 🔸 @turtle4th.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

Reflects an explosion in profits as a % of GDP alongside an explosion in the federal budget deficit as a % of GDP. The two are related and driven by China’s surging capital account deficit.

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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Trump's approval rating is down 14 points since start of term, from 53% in Feb '25 to 39% now Young people and less politically engaged have seen biggest drops (20+ pts) New lows today with '24 non-voters (30%) and men <45 (36%) And White non-college number underwater for first time (48% approve)

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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Core PCE was firm in February because of goods. Goods inflation was +0.84%, a huge month-over-month increase (10.6% annualized) and the largest since Jan 2022. Core goods prices rose 2.3% over 12 months. If you exclude 2021-23, it's the highest run rate since 1991.

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

🛢️#Inflation reacceleration **before** the oil price shock 🔥February 2026: inflationary short-term dynamics 🔺Headline inflation ⤴️3-month 4.1% ⤴️6-month 3.4% ↔️12-month 2.8% 🔺Core PCE inflation ⤴️3-month 4.4% ⤴️ 6-month 3.4% ⤵️12-month 3.0%

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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Republicans hold onto their seat in Georgia's 14th, but Democrats post another BIG overperformance It's a district Trump carried by 37 pts, so this is a blue shift of over 20 pts Most outstanding votes are in counties Democrat is leading (Cobb + Paulding), so current R margin should narrow... 1/2

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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." www.ft.com/content/49e3... via @ft

ft.com

The old global economic order is dead

China and others must think afresh as the US steps away from its role as balancer of last resort

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