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johnauthers.bsky.social

@johnauthers.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 23/09/2026
‘The latest widening took French spreads above their level from the eve of the July 2012 speech by the then-president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, in which he promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Paul J Davies @pauljdavies.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Excellent from @johnauthers.bsky.social and Richard Abbey this morning on the AI-capex debt and rates dynamics that matter for *everything* right now>> The Fed’s hiking cycle could prove a red-flag moment for AI. via @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Chart  showing investors' overall duration and spread exposure to Hyperscalers, Big six banks and broader  AI-related investment grade debt. The Hyperscalers and broader  AI exposure has  grown by 3-4-times  in the past year and overtaken banks.Chart showing the difference between real returns on invested capital and real  weighted average cost of capital for American corporates - and the difference between them, known  as the Wicksellian spread. The spread  dipping below its 20-year median increases the  probability of an investment  slowdown and it is heading in that direction now.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 21/09/2026
‘As of Sept. 14, six groups (Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, SpaceX and Microsoft) accounted for 8.4% of the overall spread risk in the US investment-grade corporate bond market. That’s more than the six largest banks.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 18/09/2026
‘Add supply chains only as strong as their weakest part to a deglobalizing trend in which countries aim for self-sufficiency and exploit any chokepoints at their disposal, and shocks become a feature, not a bug.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
bloomberg.com
The O-Ring Risk to the Global Economy
Waking up to the threat of the weakest link causing one disaster after another.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 15/09/2026
‘Once the Fed embarks on tightening, it generally continues for a while and yields continue to rise generally by more than a percentage point. Judging by history, we should brace for the 10-year yield to reach 6% before the Fed is done.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Gift Link Opinion @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Bessent Must Envy When the Grownups Were in Charge Even if they ultimately couldn’t tame the deficit, bipartisanship beats an ‘insanity premium.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Bessent Must Envy When the Grownups Were in Charge
Even if they ultimately couldn’t tame the deficit, bipartisanship beats an ‘insanity premium.’
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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
This is how #yen has performed on a real (taking into account that #Japanese inflation has been the lowest in the world, which would normally mean the currency should strengthen) effective basis against a broad basket of currencies, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social #Bloomberg
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Paolo Bernardi @paolobernardi.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
@johnauthers.bsky.social on Bessent goading markets against. A lot can go wrong from this. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
Bessent Dares Bond Traders to Burn Down the House
And oil is back above $100, with diesel at an all-time high.
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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
@svaneksmith.bsky.social x @johnauthers.bsky.social talking bond rout is back for a sequel !!!!! Thank you!! this is as good as the first one!!!
music.youtube.com
Why the Bond Market Has Everyone On Edge | Big Take
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 12/09/2026
‘The mania to find the most profitable investments has collided with over-hyped claims and backlash around attempts to identify good companies. That creates opportunities for those who can keep their heads.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
bloomberg.com
The Many Signs of Madness in Markets
Human imperfection guarantees that investor efficiency will remain a hypothesis.
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johnauthers.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Warsh appears to have boxed himself into a rate hike this week: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
Warsh Talked Himself Into a Rates Trap
The need to show improvement on inflation proves too high a bar.
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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
This one is a @svaneksmith.bsky.social and @johnauthers.bsky.social Bloomberg Big Take on the Bessent Twist, which is very good. I think these two should collaborate more often!!
youtube.com
What’s Behind the Bond Market Rollercoaster | Big Take
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 20/08/2026
‘Fiscal dominance is here. More maneuvers like this will likely weaken the dollar further, and increase the pressure on a central bank whose independence is currently in question.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
bloomberg.com
Bessent’s Bond-Burner Wasn’t the Big Move He Hoped
Drastic changes in fiscal policy are needed, not signaling and symbols.
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johnauthers.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Here's our latest on the bond selloff (plus Brazil and India): www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
The 30-Year Itch Comes for Bonds — and Brazil
In both cases, investors have cause for concern.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 10/08/2026
‘Spreads revealed mounting strain long before newspapers declared a financial panic in 1873. They are performing much the same function today.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 07/08/2026
‘Odysseus thought many times that he was about to return home, only for his hopes to be dashed. And in the same way, it’s far too soon to declare an end to the AI boom — or to the hubris that has come with it.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
bloomberg.com
Situational Hubris Catches a Hedge Fund Unawares
You don’t need to go back to the Greeks to understand this implosion, but it helps.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
@johnauthers.bsky.social: "stock market’s relationship to war and peace can be troublesome. Just look at Dow in 1938 and 1939, as an ever-more belligerent Hitler brought Europe sliding ever further into war. The impact on Wall Street wasn’t totally predictable" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/07/2026
‘Just as globalization was a key factor in the multi-decade declining trend in bond yields that followed Paul Volcker’s war on inflation, so raising the drawbridges has now triggered a steady rising trend.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
John Authers on the latest US tariff news: “this time, nobody seemed to notice. Having dominated the agenda last year, this episode of the trade war elicited minimal market reaction.” #economy #markets #trade #rariffs @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 22/07/2026
A closed Hormuz is bad. Bab el-Mandeb could be worse, says @johnauthers.bsky.social 🎥
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist An Englishman Goes Existential on Data and Football Why looking backwards needs to figure more into steadying expectations. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
An Englishman Goes Existential on Data and Football
Why looking backwards needs to figure more into steadying expectations.
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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Even after sharp rises on Wedn, bond market breakevens continue to be lower than they were then, while #inflation #swaps are back to their prewar levels — despite continuing much higher #oil prices, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 26/06/2026
‘At the outset of his last year as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan had a warning. “History cautions,” he told Congress in 2005, “that people experiencing long periods of relative stability are prone to excess.”’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
bloomberg.com
Greenspan Deflated One Bubble — His Own Authority
No central banker will ever again enjoy the same aura of invincibility.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 01/07/2026
‘Investment bubbles sow the seeds of their own destruction if they attract more capital than they can productively use, and starve other areas that need it. That point might be approaching.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
bloomberg.com
In Hindsight, Will a Coming Crash Seem Obvious?
The template for 2008 holds up after a midyear check on our imaginary hedge fund.
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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
The projected course of #Fed Funds Rate – chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 08/06/2026
‘Bitcoin’s highly speculative nature has often made it an early gauge of changing liquidity conditions, with broader risk assets following its lead.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social, Columnist What If Vanguard's Va-Va-VOOm Follows Magellan? The first trillion-dollar ETF brings excitement, but looming IPOs are unsettling passive funds. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
What If Vanguard's Va-Va-VOOm Follows Magellan?
The first trillion-dollar ETF brings excitement, but looming IPOs are unsettling passive funds.
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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Very strong headline game from @johnauthers.bsky.social today!
bloomberg.com
SpaceX — To Boldly Raise Money Where No IPO Has Gone Before
The final frontier is efficiency, as some of the world’s biggest companies land on indexes.
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johnauthers.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Hope this chat on Wall Street Week about Keir Starmer's problems and the gilts market is of interest: www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyBi...
youtube.com
Why Britain’s Bond Market Is Sounding the Alarm
YouTube video by Bloomberg Television
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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
"Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research argues that the “strike price” for the Trump Put is “some way from where we are".” @opinion.bloomberg.com @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
Why the Market Isn’t Working as Trump's Guardrail
Lack of volatility is taking off pressure to reach a Strait of Hormuz deal.
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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
#eurozone #ECB The markets seem to be saying that 3x rate #hikes aren't necessary; one will suffice to it risks: weakening already soft industrial activity, worsening credit conditions, and deepening recessionary tendencies, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 21/05/2026
‘Over history, whenever earnings have risen like this, they have always brought interest rates up with them. It will be hard to avoid a bear market if the Fed hikes rates.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social @ianrharnett.bsky.social
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Free to Read/ Gift Link Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Bond Market Fright May End Cheap Funds Era What’s the same, and different, between now and the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Bond Market Fright May End Cheap Funds Era
What’s the same, and different, between now and the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 06/05/2026
‘Since Liberation Day, buying quality stocks has been a one-way ticket to losses.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
BARCLAYS: “.. Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — ‘get me out of duration!’” (via @johnauthers.bsky.social)
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johnauthers.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
As far as markets are concerned, the US is winning the Blockade of Hormuz: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
Why Markets Think the US Is Winning the Blockade
Europe, on the other hand...
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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Any discussion of #Fed #cutting rates this year is moot. #futures markets no longer expect it, while the rate-sensitive 2y UST yield has surged with rate expectations, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
#investors now seem to assume that all those #semiconductors can be put to work making #software business models obsolete, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Hate to Suggest Partying Like It's 1999, But... At the risk of overstating, the similarities are getting too big to ignore. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Hate to Suggest Partying Like It's 1999, But...
At the risk of overstating, the similarities are getting too big to ignore.
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The TACO That Ate Market Strategy Why ‘buy the dip’ is Trump Always Chickens Out’s best friend. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
The TACO That Ate Market Strategy
Why ‘buy the dip’ is Trump Always Chickens Out’s best friend.
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johnauthers.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
The TACO trade keeps working (because T keeping COing...) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
The TACO That Ate Market Strategy
Why ‘buy the dip’ is Trump Always Chickens Out’s best friend.
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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
US #stocks look #expensive by any sensible measure, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist It Doesn’t Matter What Kevin Warsh Has to Say The Powell case and future economic challenges are out of the Fed nominee’s hands. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
It Doesn’t Matter What Kevin Warsh Has to Say
The Powell case and future economic challenges are out of the Fed nominee’s hands.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 15/04/2026
‘Demand for US assets from foreigners has fallen.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social
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johnauthers.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Please may I ask a favor. A video we made last year on the absurdity of the Liberation Day tariffs has been nominated for a Webby. Voting closes Thursday. Please vote for it! Thank you. vote.webbyawards.com/PublicVoting...
vote.webbyawards.com
Vote for the best of the internet
I just voted in The Webby People's Voice Awards and checked my voter registration.
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight Markets have a lot to weigh up, but optimism took a bruising over Easter weekend. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight
Markets have a lot to weigh up, but optimism took a bruising over Easter weekend.
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johnauthers.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
From TACO to WACO - Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out Is the New TACO
Iran’s leaders have more incentives to keep the conflict going than Trump does.
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Markets Want to Declare an Off-Ramp and Go Home Without a deal, the best outcome may be for the US to forcibly reopen the Strait. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Markets Want to Declare an Off-Ramp and Go Home
Without a deal, the best outcome may be for the US to forcibly reopen the Strait.
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Powell to ’70s: Drop Dead Yes, there’s an oil shock, but fears of stagflation are way premature. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Powell to ’70s: Drop Dead
Yes, there’s an oil shock, but fears of stagflation are way premature.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 18/03/2026
“We estimate that the current increase in gasoline prices could lead to a 60-basis-point decline in the savings rate, bringing the overall reading to 3.9%, in line with other periods of instability, such as in 1999-2001 and 2005-2008.“ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social
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