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Thomas de Waal

@tomdewaal.bsky.social
1.1K followers 168 following 78 posts

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe, all things Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Black Sea. Also Russian poetry.

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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
My piece today on the escalation in the Black Sea and need for a truce, also so grain gets to countries that need it most. And a message to Europe that a successful strategy for Ukraine also runs through Africa and the Middle East. @Carnegie_Europe carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
A Black Sea Truce Is About Global Food Security, Too
A summer of escalation in the Black Sea has hurt Ukraine economically and is exacerbating world food security. A truce is needed—as is a broader reframing of Europe’s Ukraine strategy.
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
A summer of escalation in the Black Sea has hurt Ukraine economically and is exacerbating world food security. A truce is needed—as is a broader reframing of Europe's Ukraine strategy, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social. Read: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
A Black Sea Truce Is About Global Food Security, Too
A summer of escalation in the Black Sea has hurt Ukraine economically and is exacerbating world food security. A truce is needed—as is a broader reframing of Europe’s Ukraine strategy.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Ninety today! The Montreux Convention, the grandfather of international treaties, was signed on July 20, 1936. Ankara does all it can to make this slightly archaic convention the framework for Black Sea security – with itself as the indispensable gatekeeper. carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
carnegieendowment.org
Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea
For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
RIP Anaklia, the project that lost the Americans and now lost the Chinese. The bottom line is there isn't the financing for it and Ivanishvili doesn't want it to happen either. Good reporting by Helena Bedwell. oc-media.org/china-pulls-...
oc-media.org
China pulls out of Anaklia Port, Georgia to take over development
The government said it will take over the project and partner with ‘several countries’.
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Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
🧭Sunday extras! NATO summit edition: "Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea" by @tomdewaal.bsky.social. [1/15]
carnegieendowment.org
Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea
For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
I’m so delighted that Akram Aylisli won the #ebrdliteratureprize2026 for People and Trees last night, shared with @katherineeyoung.bsky.social It is a beautiful early novel about war, childhood and a village run by women, only recently translated. Much deserved by both author and translator!
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Since 2022 the Montreux Factor has been important for Ukraine in its maritime conflict with Russia. What happens next, how to engage with Turkey's position of supporting Ukraine without overly antagonizing Russia—all in my Carnegie paper out today. Just in time also for the NATO Ankara summit!
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Amazingly, the Montreux Convention will be 90 years old this month. It’s archaic in parts, but for Turkey it's still of paramount importance as it guarantees its role as the gatekeeper of the Straits-- an aspiration fulfilled after many centuries. carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
carnegieendowment.org
Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea
For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
🛡️ | This year's #NATO Summit convenes in Turkey on July 7-8, with Ukraine high on the agenda. European and the alliance's efforts to support Kyiv will require closer engagement with Ankara in the Black Sea, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social. Read: carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
carnegieendowment.org
Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea
For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Armenian voters have delivered a third term in office for the Civil Contract party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. But his government will be navigating a difficult landscape. We asked @tomdewaal.bsky.social for his insights on the Armenian parliamentary election results. ⤵️
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Just published- my overview of the Armenia election and the Armenia Azerbaijan peace process engelsbergideas.com/essays/armen...
engelsbergideas.com
Armenia, Azerbaijan and the unfinished peace
After two military defeats and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia is betting on peace with Azerbaijan and a future beyond Russia.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
My discussion with Samvel Meliqsetyan (in Russian) on the state of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, the mood in both countries and how TRIPP is progressing. Thank you to Samvel for interesting questions. www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fXA...
youtube.com
Общественные настроения в Армении и Азербайджане отражают усталость от конфликта: Том де Ваал
YouTube video by Factor tv
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Paul T. Levin @paultlevin.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Armenia needs EU support in its defensive hybrid war. It also needs EU investments to make the normalization process with Azerbaijan work. See the recent SUITS Policy Brief on this by @tomdewaal.bsky.social www.su.se/english/divi...
su.se
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process and the Role of Turkey - Stockholms universitet
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Super news! Akram Aylisli's early novel People and Trees, superbly translated by Katherine Young is one of the three finalists for the EBRD book award. I am a big fan of the luminous novel and the courageous man and this gives him the tribute he deserves. www.ebrd.com/home/news-an...
ebrd.com
EBRD Literature Prize 2026 finalists announced
Three translated works from shortlist of ten chosen by independent jury
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
In which I argue that the European summits in Yerevan do need to show support for Pashinyan as the only mainstream Armenian politician with a positive vision. But.. Pashinyan's over-personalized and polarizing style of rule will become a problem, if unchecked. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia
Europe has an interest in supporting Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan as he tries to make peace with neighbors and loosen ties with Russia. But it is depersonalized support in the long term, not quickf...
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
🆕 | Europe has an interest in supporting 🇦🇲 leader Nikol Pashinyan as he tries to make peace with neighbors and loosen ties with Russia. But it is depersonalized support in the long term, not quickfire flash, that will win the day, says @tomdewaal.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia
Europe has an interest in supporting Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan as he tries to make peace with neighbors and loosen ties with Russia. But it is depersonalized support in the long term, not quickf...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Jokhar Dudayev died 30 years ago today. As someone who met the man and saw his brand of macho nationalism in action, I recall here the complex crazy story of Chechnya in the 90s. Russia committed crimes in Chechnya. Dudayev played his role in making that war happen. www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDn6...
youtube.com
#14 Chechnya - Humiliation leads to Assassination
YouTube video by Putschcast
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Welcoming @kadriliik.bsky.social to Carnegie Europe as a visiting scholar! As a longstanding expert on EU-Russian affairs, she will complement our ongoing analysis of Europe's geopolitical standing and its ability to respond to Putin's war in Ukraine. We will share more of her work soon.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Orban's defeat will have a big resonance in Georgia, where Georgian Dream pinned its hopes on having an illiberal friend in Hungary and the leaderships were very close. I wrote this back in 2023 but a lot is still relevant. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
The Orbanizing of Georgia
Georgia’s ruling party is mirroring the strategies of Viktor Orbán and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The government’s illiberal measures complicate Brussels’s decision on Georgia’s EU candidacy.
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New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST Centre) @nestcentre.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
The recording of this morning's midweek briefing is now available. Thomas de Waal (@tomdewaal.bsky.social) joined NEST Centre's Katia Glod to discuss Armenia’s shifting foreign policy, its evolving ties with Russia, and what this means for the South Caucasus balance. youtu.be/Py10ijk-wH4
youtu.be
Russia's shrinking leverage in Armenia
YouTube video by NEST Centre
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New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST Centre) @nestcentre.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Join this week's 30-min briefing: 'Russia’s shrinking leverage in Armenia' 9 April | 16:00 CET (10:00 EST) Thomas de Waal (@tomdewaal.bsky.social) joins NEST Centre's Katia Glod to unpack how Moscow is responding as Yerevan shifts towards the EU & US. Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
I actually don't know, it is up the Frontline Club. Thanks for your interest.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Read more about the film in the Guardian www.theguardian.com/film/2026/ma...
theguardian.com
Four wives, two passports and a very elusive butterfly: one woman’s search for her lepidopterist father
Rena Effendi’s film Searching for Satyrus began with a quest for the endangered insect that bears her family name. Before long, she was reckoning with secrets, lies and the mysterious life of her wayw...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
I am hugely looking forward to talking to Rena Effendi at the Frontline Club in London on April 22 about her wonderful film, Searching for Satyrus about looking for a butterfly and the father she never knew and traveling to Armenia, the other side of the conflict divide. Come along! lnkd.in/gJpNecA9
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat... Stefan Lehne today: EU foreign policy is dysfunctional, it's time to fold the EEAS into the Commission.
carnegieendowment.org
Time to Merge the Commission and EEAS
The EU is structurally incapable of reacting to today’s foreign policy crises. The union must fold the EEAS into the European Commission and create a security council better prepared to take action on...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
A lovely man and a great Russia scholar. Very sad news.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
This piece by my Berlin colleague Alexandra Prokopenko is essential reading on Russia. The Russian economy is in a slow death spiral, bankrupting itself on fuelling the Ukraine war--and yet the leadership is not changing course, as it believes everyone else is also failing.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan. europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com
Is 2026 a Turning Point for Armenia and Azerbaijan? | Europe Inside Out
Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan examine recent shifts in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations and explore future trajectories in the South Caucasus.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
I had stopped advertising our Akram Aylisli event tomorrow evening as it was sold out but they have now moved us to a bigger room. Come along if you can! (ignore the banner here) www.thersa.org/events/2026/...
thersa.org
The unquiet past: memory, conflict and the writer’s voice
A special live music and reading event dedicated to Akram Aylisli, the Nobel Prize-nominated Azerbaijani writer whose novel Stone Dreams ignited international debate on Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Thank you! Yes, literally silting up like the Danube
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
🆕 | A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Europolis, Where Europe Ends
A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Europolis, an evocative Romanian novel from 1933 about a Danube delta town, has much to tell us about Europe's real and imagined discontents. Real "decay" in Europe is about closing off cultural and mercantile exchange My piece for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Europolis, Where Europe Ends
A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
❔ | In return for a trade deal & the release of prisoners, Washington has lifted sanctions on Belarus. Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally? Read experts' takes: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?
In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...
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Ondrej Ditrych @ditrych.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Delighted to contribute to @carnegieendowment.org ’s #TakingThePulse on whether Europe should reengage with #Belarus. An interesting set of diverse views: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat....
carnegieendowment.org
Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?
In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Viktor Orban is using new and old methods to keep power in the upcoming Hungarian election, from handouts to AI fabrications. It's a laboratory of sorts for other future European elections. By the remarkable Zsuzsanna Szelényi for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
New Tricks and AI Tools in Hungary’s High-Stakes Election
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces his most serious challenge yet in the April 2026 parliamentary elections. All of Europe should monitor the Fidesz campaign: It will use unprecedented method...
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
The hyper-personalized global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine
The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
It's not the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, it's the “Gone-Rogue Doctrine.” My column today for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social on Trump's Greenland gambit as performative imperialism, why “sphere of influence” politics doesn’t work any more and Europe's choices. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine
The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States. For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions is vital, argues @erik-jones.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Solidarity Is a Must for Europe to Ensure its Own Security
Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States. For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions i...
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OC Media @ocmedia.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
The EU Parliament has adopted a new resolution condemning the human rights situation in Azerbaijan and the imprisonment of researchers Bahruz Samadov and Igbal Abilov, on 18 December.
oc-media.org
EU Parliament adopts resolution condemning human rights situation in Azerbaijan
The resolution ‘strongly’ condemns the arrest of Ali Karimli, chair of the opposition Popular Front Party, and calls for his immediate release.
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
U.S. President Donald Trump's claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his #peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in protracted conflicts, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe
U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in pr...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
My piece just published. It's easy to be sniffy about Trump's "Art of the Deal" peace-making. Liberal peace is still the best variety, if rare. But Europe can still learn from Trump's willingness to shake things up and break the status quo. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe
U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in pr...
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
🎧 | Is Britain Becoming More Like Europe? In this new #EuropeInsideOut episode, @tomdewaal.bsky.social, @peterkellner.bsky.social, & Anne McElvoy discuss the state of British politics and what it means for EU-UK relations. Listen now 👉 europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat... Should Europe be negotiating directly with Russia? Seven scholars respond to our latest @carnegieeurope.bsky.social (deliberately provocative) question
carnegieendowment.org
Taking the Pulse: Should Europe Negotiate with Russia?
By negotiating directly with the Kremlin, the Trump administration has broken the taboo on diplomatic contacts with Russia. With Ukrainian and European security at stake, is it time for Brussels to op...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Armenia's election, like it or not, is being fought by outside actors as well. Russia and parts of the US diaspora have a new candidate to unseat Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan needs help to demonstrate progress in his Real Armenia agenda. My latest for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
A great line-up of experts, ahead of @cop30brazil.bsky.social, to consider if Europe still has a leadership role on climate change. Yes, it does, some say, it never had one, others contend!
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
❔| #TTP: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? ➡️ COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role? carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change?
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a d...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Europe is still struggling to cope with the second Trump presidency, writes Stefan Lehne for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social Echoing St Augustine, the message is “Lord, make us autonomous, but not just yet!” But the time to act is now. A great read. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Can the EU Meet the Trump Moment?
The second term of U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing Europeans to strengthen their capacity for collective action. But their biggest challenge comes from within: U.S.-backed radical-right parties...
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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan? In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
foreignaffairs.com
An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus
How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
I was very glad of the opportunity to have a substantial conversation with @neweasterneurope.eu on the Trump deal with Armenia and Azerbaijan talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...
talkeasterneurope.eu
Episode 235: Behind the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan
In this episode, Alexandra and Adam start off with some discussion on the news, including concerns over the upcoming Russia/Belarus Zapad 2025 militar...
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