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Zaur Shiriyev

@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social
147 followers 97 following 14 posts

Nonresident scholar @carnegieendowment.org Senior Associate Research Fellow at ISPI. Scholar-practitioner on the Caucasus & Türkiye; energy & regional security. Literature & nonfiction enthusiast, no hierarchy.

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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
The harder test may come after Armenia’s June 7 election. My new commentary for Carnegie Emissary looks at why the vote matters beyond domestic politics and what can be done next. carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
At Stake in Armenia’s Election: Peace and Russian Influence
Regardless of the outcome, there’s another path to ensuring that progress doesn’t stall.
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🆕 | The U.S.-sponsored TRIPP deal is driving the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. But hurdles remain before connectivity & economic interdependence can open up the South Caucasus, argue @tomdewaal.bsky.social, Areg Kochinyan, and @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
carnegieendowment.org
Rewiring the South Caucasus: TRIPP and the New Geopolitics of Connectivity
The U.S.-sponsored TRIPP deal is driving the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process forward. But foreign and domestic hurdles remain before connectivity and economic interdependence can open up the South Ca...
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 16/03/2026
The war in Iran, now in its third week, has had serious regional consequences. That puts Armenia and Azerbaijan “on the front line of regional instability,” writes Zaur Shiriyev. Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
Iran’s Northern Neighbors Are Facing Fallout From the War, Too
The conflict is threatening stability in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan. europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com
Is 2026 a Turning Point for Armenia and Azerbaijan? | Europe Inside Out
Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan examine recent shifts in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations and explore future trajectories in the South Caucasus.
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
My new piece for Strategic Europe on why the EU is falling behind in the South Caucasus connectivity race and what it can do about it:
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
A new paper I co-authored with Philip Gamaghelyan is out. It looks at practical steps toward lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and how different actors can support long-term stability.Any feedback is welcome. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
Strategic Directions for Building Sustainable Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
An official peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot by itself resolve decades of mistrust. The durability of peace will depend on healing trauma, reframing identities, diversifying narra...
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Eilish Hart @eilishhart.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Have Armenia and Azerbaijan made any more progress towards peace since the White House summit in August? My conversation with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social for @ceip-politika.bsky.social covers that and more! Check it out now: youtu.be/N3TXiu7LM2s?...
youtu.be
A Geopolitical Shift in the South Caucasus and the Future of TRIPP | Zaur Shiriyev
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
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Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Does the tail wag the dog? Also, who's the dog? @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal. Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
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Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
🎙️ Live webcast today! @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States. Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
open.substack.com
LIVE SOON: How Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks might reshape the region with Zaur Shiriyev
Starting Oct 7 at 7:00 AM EDT
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
foreignaffairs.com
An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus
How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 07/08/2025
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan &  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s White House summit may transform the South Caucasus’ future, with a peace deal announcement. Philip Gamaghelyan & @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social warn that peace remains fragile: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
As They Edge Toward Peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan Must Resist Old Habits
Whether the Washington summit marks a breakthrough or distraction will depend on both leaders’ commitment to finish what they started.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991. In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
ft.com
How Odesa’s Philharmonic Orchestra played on through the war
A Ukrainian orchestra and their American conductor withstood Russian missiles to bring music to the city
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Shared a few thoughts (for what they're worth) on the Russia–Azerbaijan tensions: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
nytimes.com
Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions Soar, Threatening Moscow’s Influence
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 11/06/2025
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would put a definitive end to a decades-long conflict—and help prevent Russia from reasserting itself in the South Caucasus, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p... Zaur's piece on Azerbaijan is excellent, authoritative, comprehensive and asks the hard questions about the country's future @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social
foreignaffairs.com
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 26/05/2025
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would cement a “new order in the South Caucasus,” writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. “Yet it is unclear whether Azerbaijan will embrace the opportunity.”
foreignaffairs.com
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
In my new piece for Strategic Europe, I look at how the EU and Turkey could work together in the South Caucasus, and what assumptions might need to change to make that possible: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU & Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Rewarding Russian aggression in Ukraine would send shockwaves across Eurasia. For three years, many countries in its former periphery have benefited from Moscow’s weakness. A bad deal now could reverse that—and embolden Russia. My latest: 🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Rewarding Russian Aggression Would Send Shockwaves Across Eurasia
From Georgia to Kazakhstan, all eyes are on the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine—and the outcome will determine Moscow’s capacity to project influence.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
So much going on in the world that this commentary didn't get enough attention @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social on the importance of seizing the moment for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal "Without peace, Baku risks mistaking short-term leverage for lasting influence." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler
Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel. youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
youtu.be
Are Trump’s Threats Against Russian Oil Realistic & Can the Kremlin Save Gazprom? | Sergey Vakulenko
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
The text of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is finalized — but Russia may not want it to succeed. I explore why in my latest commentary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler
Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Russia wading in again on the "Zangezur Corridor"/Syunik transit route across Armenia to Azerbaijan. Zakharova says the ARM-AZ-RUS working group has to be revived, talks of the "destructive influence of the West." A sign that Moscow is worried about losing leverage here to EU tass.ru/ekonomika/23...
tass.ru
Захарова: Запад тормозит разблокирование транспортных коммуникаций на Южном Кавказе
Официальный представитель МИД РФ отметила, что позиция Армении тоже нередко вызывает вопросы
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
My long essay on how Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories—what others shouldn’t try to copy, and what comes next for the South Caucasus. Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game. gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Lots of good food for thought in @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social 's deep essay here on the reasons for Azerbaijan's success in the conflict with Armenia in recent years--and the reasons why it is important for Baku to cut a deal. gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward
After decades of conflict, the two moved closer to a peace deal. But outside support, especially from Ankara, is critical to maintain momentum.
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Azerbaijan-Russia relations are evolving, and I shared my insights on the shifting dynamics—please check it out here: caucasuswatch.de/en/interview...
caucasuswatch.de
Zaur Shiriyev: The Lasting Effect of Flight 8243 on Baku’s Relationship to Moscow
To understand the implications of the Azerbaijani Airlines airplane crash on December 25, 2024, for Russian-Azerbaijani relations, we turn to Dr. Zaur Shiriyev, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie R...
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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
On Akram Aylisli's wonderful early novel from the 1960s, People and Trees, now in English for the first time in Katherine Young's beautiful translation. A village, where the men are lost to the war, the women are in charge, modernity has arrived and a boy grows up www.the-tls.co.uk/literature/f...
the-tls.co.uk
An Azerbaijani author of fierce political courage and local loyalty
People and Trees is a pastoral set in Soviet Azerbaijan in the 1940s. If that sounds dull, then do not be deceived: Akram Aylisli’s novel is anything but.
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
I’ve started a Telegram channel, Beyond the Divide, where I share insights on politics, culture, economics, and literature, with a focus on the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Central Asia. Join here: t.me/beyondthediv... For more, check out my Carnegie colleagues’ Telegram channels: t.me/addlist/l2mF...
t.me
Beyond the Divide
Reflections on the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Central Asia—politics, culture, and literature, through the lens of Zaur Shiriyev, shared in English and Azerbaijani.
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 29/12/2024
Mr. Putin’s statement “is a textbook example of a non-apology apology,” Mr. Shiriyev said in an email interview. “There was no direct acceptance of responsibility, no offer of compensation, and no commitment to hold those responsible accountable.” www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/w...
nytimes.com
Putin Apologizes but Does Not Take Responsibility for Azerbaijani Plane Crash
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia told the Azerbaijani leader, Ilham Aliyev, in a phone call, “that the tragic incident took place in Russian airspace.”
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
Quoted in @wsj.com on the plane crash: “Baku’s expectation is not only an apology but also an explanation why the pilots’ request to land was denied and why their GPS was jammed over the Caspian Sea—both of which could have saved the plane and its passengers.”
www.wsj.com/world/probe-...
wsj.com
Probe Points to Russian Air Defenses Causing Azerbaijan Airlines Crash
The plane was diverted from Russia and had its GPS jammed before crashing in Kazakhstan, killing 38.
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Zaur Shiriyev @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
At a roundtable in Istanbul on #Armenia-#Azerbaijan-#Türkiye relations, I argued the Baku-Yerevan talks are better seen as a normalization process—not peace—since peace remains vague and undiscussed. I also shared thoughts on U.S. influence. Insights here: caucasusedition.net/roundtable-d...
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