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peterkellner.bsky.social

@peterkellner.bsky.social
1.7K followers 12 following 98 posts
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
How tactical voting could wreck Refoprm's hopes. My analysis for New World www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...
thenewworld.co.uk
Sorry Nigel, but the polls show you’ve had it
The numbers now show Reform are on the slide and the party is going to get stuffed by tactical voting
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Labour is more middle class than ever. Here are the results of a major new poll that shows which voters are on the move – and where they are going kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-is-...
kellnerp.substack.com
Labour is more middle class than ever
Mega poll reveals which voters are on the move – and where they are going
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Reform's £72m war chest may not move many votes - but it doesn't need to move many to change the future of British politics www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...
thenewworld.co.uk
Farage’s £72m of crypto donations could swing the general election
So many parties have similar vote shares, even a tiny swing could give Reform an outright majority. The deluge of crypto money into Reform’s coffers could tip the balance
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Holborn and St Pancras looks like a safe Labour seat. In fact it would be a triumph for Andy Burnham and disaster for Zack Polanski if it doesn’t change hands www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...
thenewworld.co.uk
History says Polanski is going to win the St Pancras by-election
If Burnham manages to hold the seat, it will be a colossal victory for the new PM – but it doesn’t look likely
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Anthony Seldon looks at Badenoch's prospects with a broader perspective then my analysis of her poll ratings. His take is well worth reading www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
newstatesman.com
The Tory party is lost in the wilderness
It is suffering through a period of recrimination and retribution
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Eight companies report very different findings for Kemi Badenoch’s standing with voters. This Substack analysis explores the reasons – and uncovers a new poll that has extremely good news for her. kellnerp.substack.com/p/solved-the...
kellnerp.substack.com
Solved: the mystery of Badenoch’s wobbly ratings
Why the polls differ - and new data that should cheer the Tory leader
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The first ten minutes of the BBC’s Six o’clock news were devoted to the eclipse. Not only will there be no full eclipse in the UK, we know exactly what will happen, when and why - and have known this for decades. In what sense is this “news”?
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
A new poll shows Reform slipping to third place. What is going on? kellnerp.substack.com/p/dear-nigel...
kellnerp.substack.com
Dear Nigel: beware the fragility factor
A new poll shows Reform slipping to third place. What is going on?
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Here is my assessment of the Greater Manchester mayoral election kellnerp.substack.com/p/relief-for...
kellnerp.substack.com
Relief for Labour: trouble for Reform
Lessons from Britain’s biggest ever by-election
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
The polls have good news for the prime minister – not just Labour adding support, but Reform losing it kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnhams-b...
kellnerp.substack.com
Burnham’s bounce: will it last?
Reform’s slump is just as important as Labour's vote share
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
The data are clear: few of us believe we benefit from our contract with the state. This post explores the challenge this poses for the new prime minister. kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnhams-b...
kellnerp.substack.com
Burnham’s biggest problem: ungrateful voters
Few of us believe we benefit from our contract with the state
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
There is a fair amount of loose talk about the polls and Andy Burnham’s prospects. His fate will be decided by how well he does, not by forces he can’t control kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
kellnerp.substack.com
The myth of ever-more unpopular prime ministers
Andy Burnham’s fate will be decided by how well he does, not by forces he can’t control
011
peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
In the lull between Keir Starmer’s resignation and Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street, the Conservative leader’s performance is worth inspecting. She is using dud facts to make her case on welfare policy kellnerp.substack.com/p/kemi-baden...
kellnerp.substack.com
Kemi Badenoch fluffs her lines on welfare
She relies on dud facts to make her case
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
As Andy Burnham prepares to enter Downing Street, and Nigel Farage prepares to campaign in Clacton, new polling evidence reveals the challenges facing both of them. kellnerp.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...
kellnerp.substack.com
It’s not just your money, Nigel. Voters don't trust you
New polling evidence reveals the challenges facing Farage and Burnham
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
My open letter to the new prime minister argues that first-past-the-post used to be defensible, but is now dangerous. kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-modest-p...
kellnerp.substack.com
A modest proposal for Andy Burnham’s first reform
First-past-the-post used to be defensible. Now it’s dangerous
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Next week’s by-election is arguably the most important ever held. As it approaches its climax, tactical voting has increased Andy Burham’s lead, IF the latest poll is right. Here is my analysis of the state of play. kellnerp.substack.com/p/makerfield...
kellnerp.substack.com
Makerfield update: Burnham's chances of a big win
Tactical voting has increased his lead – IF the latest poll is right
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
This post will not please everyone. I argue that the 50-year experiment of giving the vote to grassroot members has failed. kellnerp.substack.com/p/hand-the-p...
kellnerp.substack.com
Hand the power to choose party leaders back to MPs
The 50-year experiment of giving the vote to grassroot members has failed
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
The first poll says Burnham is 3% ahead of Reform. I argue that his true lead may be greater kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-is-th...
kellnerp.substack.com
What is the state of play in the Makerfield by-election?
The first poll says Burnham is 3% ahead. His true lead may be greater
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Brexit is less popular than ever. Arguments about whether to rejoin the EU have dominated early skirmishes about Labour’s leadership. YouGov’s latest poll suggests a way forward. kellnerp.substack.com/p/brexit-is-...
kellnerp.substack.com
Brexit is less popular than ever
YouGov's latest poll suggests how Labour can settle its squabbles over rejoining the EU
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Suubstack's poll of Labour Party members is strking. but are its numbers right? kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnham-en...
kellnerp.substack.com
Burnham enjoys big lead in poll of party members
Survation's figures are striking. Are they right?
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
Reform and the Greens now know where they can break through. Is Starmer the right leader to fend them off? Prospect commissioned this analysis www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/734...
prospectmagazine.co.uk
The lessons of this week’s election
Reform UK has peaked, right and left have diverged—and Labour must settle its leadership question once and for all
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
How sholuld we judge the perforamn ce of each party in next week's elections? Here are my assessments of the numbers that will mean joy, relief, disappointment or despair for each party. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/731...
prospectmagazine.co.uk
The May elections: What you need to know
Wales, Scotland, English local councils—here’s what to watch in next week’s votes
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the case for Britain rejoining the EU is beginning to be made. My latest Substack post discusses how to keep public opinion onside. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majori...
kellnerp.substack.com
The majority for rejoining the EU is real, but could fade
Ministers should heed St Paul's warning about trumpets giving an uncertain sound
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
I first came across the problem of Whitehall hiding the truth from its political masters and the wider public 48 years ago. This Substack revisits an old scandal that shows we need more than new rules for vetting ambassadors. kellnerp.substack.com/p/keeping-pr...
kellnerp.substack.com
Keeping prime ministers out of the loop is nothing new
We need more than new rules for vetting ambassadors - as I discovered 48 years ago
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise. Here is my analysis of the latest polls kellnerp.substack.com/p/lies-damne...
kellnerp.substack.com
Lies, damned lies and biased opinion polls
The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise kellnerp.substack.com/p/lies-damne...
kellnerp.substack.com
Lies, damned lies and biased opinion polls
The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Trump breaks the golden rule: don't go to war without public support. See my analysis for New World. thenewworld.substack.com/p/polls-amer...
thenewworld.substack.com
Polls: Americans hate Trump, his war and what he’s doing to the US
For Trump to stand a chance at the mid-terms, he needs to win over independents. But they hate him – and their dislike is only growing
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Reform really has lost support. Here's the evidence. The fault, dear Nigel, is not in the polls but in yourselves. www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...
thenewworld.co.uk
It’s official: Reform has slumped in the polls
Prime minister Farage? The danger has receded… for the moment.
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Starmer says “it was me who made the mistake” of appointing Mandelson ambassador to the US. His apology is unacceptable. The PM should of course have said “it was I who made the mistake”.
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Donald Trump is no Franklin Roosevelt
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Labour's line post Gorton is that the Tories lost 20 out of 21 by-elections in 2010-15. Of ther 21, just 4 were defended by the Tories: 2 to lost to sitting MPs defecting to Ukip. So 2 conventional Tory defences - 1 lost (Corby), 1 held (Newark). Not quite the catastrophe Labour are now making out.
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
New World asked me to analyse what the polls say, what the president might try, and the chances of stopping him kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-us-mid...
kellnerp.substack.com
The US mid-terms: will Trump cheat or voters choose?
What the polls say, what the president might try, and the chances of stopping him
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
A new poll on Labour’s leadership should be handled with care – and so should another on tax-and-spend. kellnerp.substack.com/p/rayner-may...
kellnerp.substack.com
Rayner may be ahead of Starmer and Streeting… but maybe not
A new poll on Labour’s leadership should be handled with care – so should another on tax-and-spend.
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
The differences among polling companies are not just about numbers; they tell different stories about the state of our multiparty politics. This post explores the reasons why their results vary kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-po...
kellnerp.substack.com
Why the polls are all over the place
Their differences matter and need to be explained. Here’s a start
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
The book that political junkies have been waiting for has just been published. The British General Election of 2024 is the latest in a series that goes back to 1945. This review, first published by Prospect, discusses its strengths – and its gaps. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7209...
prospectmagazine.co.uk
Half the picture: what ‘The British General Election of 2024’ doesn’t reveal
This 22nd book in the series lacks something that made its predecessors so compelling—an understanding of the people involved in the campaign, not jus...
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
From Greenland to Minneapolis, Donald Trump is in trouble with middle America. His troubles extend to his policies across the board. Voters now regard him as anti-Midas: everything he touches turns to dross. kellnerp.substack.com/p/middle-ame...
kellnerp.substack.com
Middle America has turned against Trump
Voters on Main Street accuse him of having the anti-Midas touch
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
The right-wing media want a Reform-Tory pact. My latest Substack post analyses why they are unlikely to get their way. kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-ri...
kellnerp.substack.com
Why the right-wing media want a Reform-Conservative pact…
…and why they are likely to be disappointed
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
In their hearts, MPs from all parties know that Britain needs a new, fair and affordable plan for pensions. My Substack (subscriptions are free) argues that It will take guts, but one might be on the way kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...
kellnerp.substack.com
Can Britain succeed where France has failed?
Needed: a fair, affordable plan for pensions. It will take guts, but might be on the way
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
In the early hours of May 7, 1945, Germany surrendered to the allies, including Russia, 1,415 days after Hitler's troops invaded the Soviet Union. Putin's troops invaded Ukraine 1,415 days ago this morning. The "special military operation" has now lasted longer than the "great patriotic war".
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
My new year post argues that Labour’s leader must find the “wow” factor if he is not to resign, be removed or condemn Labour to certain defeat at the next election kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-o...
kellnerp.substack.com
Starmer's options in the last chance saloon
Resign, be removed, or find the "wow" factor
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
For my final Substack post of 2025 I look at the wholesale transfer of support from the main legacy parties (Lab + Con) to the surging insurgents (Reform + Green) - and their similarity to the tactics of ice cream vans kellnerp.substack.com/p/2025-the-y...
kellnerp.substack.com
2025: the year when the rules of ice cream battles changed British politics
Today’s party leaders face the same basic challenge as Mr Whippy
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
My latest Substack post analyses Britain’s continuing problems with productivity. Spoiler alert: they are not just the fault of the Tories. They go deeper than that. PS: Subscription to my posts is free. kellnerp.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
kellnerp.substack.com
Rachel Reeves’s biggest crisis isn’t over
Productivity remains a headache. Blame big tech, not just the Tories
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
Suddenly the talk at Westminster is of the government wanting a closer relationship with the European Union. What should we make of this? My latest Substack crunches the numbers. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majori...
kellnerp.substack.com
The majority opposed to Brexit has reached eight million
Ministers need courage to keep it that way
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
If Labour changes its leader, how can it win the next election? My post considers how the new prime minister could maximise their chances of success. kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...
kellnerp.substack.com
How Labour could win without Starmer
It won’t be easy. The attempt might fail. How could the party maximise its chances of success?
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Last month marked the centenary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth. In my latest Substack post, I argue that progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...
kellnerp.substack.com
Thatcher’s victories have lessons for us all
Progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister. My latest Substack post explains all. kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...
kellnerp.substack.com
Revealed: the rule change that puts Starmer at risk
A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
To become prime minister, Nigel Farage must defy history. My new post for Subnstack discusses his prospects kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...
kellnerp.substack.com
A time to moan and a time to choose
To become prime minister, Farage must defy history.
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
kellnerp.substack.com
Peers beware
Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
My new Substack reports fresh data that reveal the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice. kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...
kellnerp.substack.com
Voters are not listening
New research uncovers the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Populists rely on voters overstating the scale of today's problems. Polls show that this is far too common in Britain - and around the world kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...
kellnerp.substack.com
“Ignorance is Strength”. Was Orwell’s Big Brother right?
Yes – for populists. Parties like Reform rely on voters overstating the scale of today’s problems
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