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Stephen Williamson

@1954swilliamson.bsky.social
1.3K followers 176 following 974 posts

Professor, Western University (University of Western Ontario)

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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Not sure Scott Bessent is a great example for the slowing down and thinking person.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
1/I was told once by another economist who works on housing that the prevalence of 30 year mortgages in the US comes from federal government policy decisions from the 1930s. Private financial institutions, left on their own, would not offer mortgage products that would involve bearing this much...
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Exactly. This isn't about "trolling" and having some fun making jokes about Trump. For us, it's existential. We know exactly how Trump behaves. You can kiss his butt for years, and he'll wake up one morning and decide to punch you in the face. Trying to "deal" with this guy is a waste of time.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
1/Most of this has been well-known for a long time. Technological change in home production (laundry, cooking, cleaning, child care) was and is a big deal. Electrification and running water were huge. Combined with increases in productivity in the market and higher market wages...
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
😂😂😂Yes, whenever I see students with their headsets on watching their computers, I know the technology is enormously effective...at holding their attention. What it's doing to them is another thing altogether.
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 26/09/2026
In response to our reporting, Susan Collins has mustered a defense that is full of incorrect and misleading claims. We’ve reviewed FBI evidence, examined thousands of pages of records and interviewed dozens of people. Here are the receipts.
propublica.org
ProPublica Debunks Susan Collins’ Claims About FBI Anti-Corruption Probe
ProPublica revealed that the FBI was circling Sen. Collins over a defense contractor’s donations — until President Trump gutted the unit in charge. Collins has since mustered a defense with a series o...
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Mark Carney @mark-carney.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Canada is predictable, reliable, and principled in a world that’s anything but.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
1/I'm not saying I agree with the conventional monetary policy tightening story, but this is inconsistent with it. According to the usual Old Keynesian, or New Keynesian narrative, higher interest rates indeed "restrain" investment, which cools" the economy, and inflation comes down.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I checked the temperature in D.C. yesterday. The high was 19 degrees Celcius. Why is Trump wearing a winter coat and gloves?
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
We are ready for the landing craft coming across Lake Erie.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Questions: Are these state polls any good? Could turnout easily overcome a 3 point deficit?
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John Dickerson @jdickerson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I'm struck by how low the bar has become for Republicans to be described as "breaking with Trump." substack.com/@johnfdicker...
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
1/This piece isn't bad, but sometimes misses the point. Yes, Canada is tied to the US, more than any country in the world (except Mexico, which is roughly in the same boat). And being closely tied to a country going down the toilet - trust me - is not a good thing. But Carney is inspirational...
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The school of "if I rename it, something important will happen."
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 22/09/2026
Trump is checking out of his presidency ft.trib.al/COkrKhQ | opinion
ft.trib.al
Trump is checking out of his presidency
With no way out of his war with Iran, he is increasingly obsessed with monuments to himself
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
There are many good reasons to ditch the dot plot. There could be little backing it up - there's no requirement that the submission be an internally consistent forecast. It could just be a device to bind one's colleagues on the FOMC. It is often interpreted as a commitment.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
1/Matt is correct, I think, but it's not obvious from the two columns. If you've seen this in practice, you'll understand exactly what is going on. The key words that give it away in the right-hand column are: discourse; range of approaches; exploring; shared understanding; ...
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
1/Unfortunately the words "forward guidance" are often misused. The general principle behind central bank communications is that we need to understand how the central bank is making its decisions. Policy actions have to be explained carefully, and justified, by appealing to the available economic...
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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I think they should have voted on whether to have a vote about a vote
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
In my experience, summer in most of the United States is unbearable. A good snow storm is a wonderful thing.
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Carl Schmertmann @cschmert.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
This may sound like beaucratic paper shuffling but it's actually a five-alarm fire. When allocating the nation's resources among competing research projects, replacing scientific experts with political apparatchiks is a recipe for waste, abuse, and slower progress. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/s...
nytimes.com
White House Moves to Take Control of N.I.H. Grants (Gift Article)
Federal officials are drafting an executive order that would place grants under review by an outside panel, the latest effort to redirect billions of dollars in research spending.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
1/There's a lot of pessimism out there about this arrangement, but I don't see it. Australians have a pretty nice life, as far as I can tell. And they are a long way from anything. Sydney-Singapore: 3915 mi., Sydney-Hong Kong: 4580 mi., Sydney- Tokyo: 4845 mi., Sydney-Seoul: 5164 mi...
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This is behind a paywall, but apparently some scuttlebutt about Ricardo Reis. The IMF prefers bland to blunt? Why would that make sense?
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
New substack post: stevewilliamson.substack.com/p/fed-policy...
stevewilliamson.substack.com
Fed Policy Statement and Press Conference
Kevin Warsh again reveals not much, and that he knows not much.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 18/09/2026
On the EU, let Canada and Odysseus inspire Burnham ft.trib.al/fBEudNd
ft.trib.al
On the EU, let Canada and Odysseus inspire Burnham
This wily prime minister can find a way to take advantage of new possibilities for a ring of outer nations
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Mike Galsworthy @mikegalsworthy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🔥 Mark Carney officially has the highest approval rating in Canadian history - a 70% approval rate. Carney’s EU moves have gone down well!
cultmtl.com
Mark Carney officially has the highest approval rating in Canadian history
Prime Minister Mark Carney now holds the highest recorded approval rating in Canadian history, achieved earlier this month in a study by Spark Insights.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
What bad hand? It's a good hand for a no-trump contract.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
We are looking into what's wrong with my face.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The dot plot says their median view is that the "neutral rate" is 3.25%. So, the way the FOMC thinks about the world, yesterday the fed funds target was above the neutral rate, and today it went higher. So policy was tight and got tighter, by their logic. They're not removing accommodation.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
If you have nothing to say, maybe saying less is fine.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Over-confident hedge fund guy with no notion of what economic policy is about goes to Washington. Smilingly demonstrates his ignorance to anyone who will listen.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Haven't read the whole paper, but do they address causality? There's a well known mechanism by which development causes fertility rates to fall. Basically, better market opportunities means people substitute away from child-rearing.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I'm sure you tired of this stuff long ago. The President could not define "inflation" if you asked him, let alone tell you what the current inflation reading is (by a measure he gets to choose), what's causing it, or how it might be controlled.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Looking for a "policy" here is a waste of time. Follow the money.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Maybe I'm just sloppy, but in 43 years of submitting papers this has never happened to me. Once had a student submit to JET. Two referees said accept as is. Associate editor had three pages of instructions for revision. You know who you are.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Hmm. This was the age of corporal punishment, typically inflicted by adult men: 1. Father's (very large) hand. 2. Leather strap in Mr. Fox's desk drawer. 3. Grandmother, who would rat on me to my mother, who would tell my father, who had a large hand (actually 2, but it was the right that mattered).
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I think Justin is saying he is not the house.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Arrogance and ignorance tend not to mix well. www.youtube.com/watch?v=5N1J...
youtube.com
‘I Am the House Now’: Bessent Challenges Traders on Yen
YouTube video by Bloomberg Television
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Definitely belongs in the op-ed section. As far as I can tell, the opinions are all nonsense. Apparently Warsh is both deft and independent of the White House. Yes, and I play chess with my cat.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Very weird. Usually the party in power runs on its record. These guys are acting as if the party that does not control any of the 3 branches of government is actually in power. But, if your signature policies are the war with Iran, the war with your own people, and the trade war with the world...
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
New blog post on gold holdings by governments and central banks. stevewilliamson.substack.com/p/all-that-g...
stevewilliamson.substack.com
All That Glitters...
Gold as an asset for governments and central banks
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
This article is supposed to be about new ideas. Couldn't find any.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
You might wonder why Zelensky bothers talking to them. I guess the answer is he doesn't want to anger the Oval Office guy and be treated more badly than he is already. Otherwise W and K are incompetent emmisaries of Russia, and not worth the time.
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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Already a historic story for the ages. America reduced to being ruled by an imbecile, sending two other imbeciles to fawn over a dictator who invaded a country that would have been a US ally in more normal times.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Highly recommended. Rush on tour. I had not followed this band, but saw them in Toronto last month. Remarkable. Two septuagenarians and new (and amazing) drummer Anika Nilles, playing much very difficult music and having fun. Best Rush ever according to my brother. www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZxf...
youtube.com
YYZ, RUSH, 7 August 2026, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
YouTube video by Denmark Street Pedal
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
1/Donald Trump received a B.S. in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. A number of possibilities: (i) These are the ravings of an 80-year-old with dementia; (ii) Wharton taught Trump bizarrely crappy economics; (iii) Wharton taught Trump economics, but he learned...
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 04/09/2026
turns out the guy who looked, talked and dressed like he didn’t give a shit about the job…doesn’t give a shit about the job
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
In some myths that people construct there are many specialized gods. I think the god of history has no imagination - keeps recycling old ideas.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
A reminder that, when bicycles have to share the road with cars, buses, and trucks, the results can be tragic.
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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
1/No kidding. Out of the set of candidates floated as FOMC Chair possibilities, Waller was the best qualified. This speech is a solid macroeconomist telling us about current conditions and policy in what is, I think, language that can be easily understood by people who don't have a PhD in...
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