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Tobias Fella

@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
508 followers 200 following 99 posts

Project Director & Senior Researcher @ifshhamburg.bsky.social I Military Affairs I Strategy I Deterrence I Risk Reduction I US SP/FP I Berlin Website: tobiasfella.com

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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I wrote a piece for @thebulletin.org arguing that France's new non-nuclear partners should engage on #forwarddeterrence collectively, to pursue their own interests vis-à-vis Paris more effectively and increase ownership and inclusiveness of the French initiative: thebulletin.org/2026/07/forw...
thebulletin.org
Forward deterrence: What's (not) in it for France's partners
Four months after President Macron pitched a European "forward deterrence" concept, uneven bilateral terms and strict French nuclear autonomy threaten to leave non-nuclear allies with little say. To p...
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
.loyal Magazin @loyalmagazin.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Nun bekommt Deutschland doch #Tomahawk-Marschflugkörper🚀. Doch sie sollten nur eine Übergangslösung sein, denn in #Europa gibt es schon gute Alternativen. Welche das sind, lest ihr in unserer Online-Analyse:👉www.reservistenverband.de/magazin-loya...
Ein Tomahawk-Marschflugkörper startet von einem Schiff der US-Marine.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Worth reading: Elbridge Colby on "Middle Powers", x.com/USWPColby/st...
x.com
Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby (@USWPColby) on X
There is a great deal of hubbub about a collective “middle powers”strategy these days. At DoW, we are not concerned that this is a serious possibility. Rather, we are more concerned that a few allie...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Luftwaffe chief warns Europe has ‘no time’ to counter Putin without US weapons, www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
Luftwaffe chief warns Europe has ‘no time’ to counter Putin without US weapons
“Developing our own capabilities takes time. Right now, we do not have time,” Lt. Gen. Holger Neumann tells POLITICO.
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
"In puncto Reichweite und Durchschlagskraft haben sie [ballistische Raketen] ein hohes Abschreckungspotential." Ein schönes Beispiel für den Zustand der "strategischen Debatte". Aus den Eigenschaften von Waffensystemen selbst ergibt sich erst einmal gar nichts. (1/2) www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
faz.net
Weitreichende Raketen: Deutschland und Frankreich kooperieren
Deutschland und Frankreich bemühen sich um gemeinsame neue Projekte in der Rüstung – auch in einer bislang nur von Nuklearmächten beherrschten Technik. Zwei europäische Konzerne bringen sich in Stellu...
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Hanna Notte @hannanotte.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
The cumulative pressures of the war may become such that Putin will go for a cease-fire in Ukraine, eventually. If and when he does, Russia will pivot to pursue its original war aims through other means. My essay with Michael Kimmage in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
foreignaffairs.com
Putin Will Turn a Cease-Fire Into a Weapon
A new use for Russia’s old playbook in Ukraine.
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
On the eve of July 4th, @nuclear-jim.bsky.social and I have a new @carnegieendowment.org paper out. We look at the contributions of the U.S. nuclear arsenal to American national power (a topic that is far less straightforward than it might appear at first). carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 03/07/2026
The U.S. will celebrate its 250th birthday tomorrow, July 4. In a new SWP podcast episode, Johannes Thimm and Sascha Lohmann analyse the state of U.S. democracy and explain what MAGA's domestic and foreign policies mean for the future of transatlantic relations: 🎙️🎧 www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
swp-berlin.org
250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence: U.S. democracy under pressure
As the United States marks its 250th birthday, questions about the state of U.S. democracy, domestic developments, and foreign policy loom...
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Putin said last week Europeans are "more or less defenseless" against Russian tactical nukes. Whether the United States has a credible response to that is not yet settled. warontherocks.com/not-imaginar...
warontherocks.com
Not Imaginary: The Deterrence Gap is Real and America Needs Low-Yield Nukes
Nuclear policy debates are at their best when they force hard questions about risk, deterrence, and military necessity. They are at their worst when
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Reuters @reuters.com · 02/07/2026
Lithuania agrees to remove constitutional ban on nuclear weapons reut.rs/4bjUMcM
reut.rs
Lithuania agrees to remove constitutional ban on nuclear weapons
Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda ‌said on Thursday that parliamentary parties had ​agreed on a ​plan to remove a ⁠constitutional provision prohibiting nuclear ​weapons on Lithuanian ​soil.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
New publication out in an edited @fesonline.bsky.social volume: “Artificial Intelligence (AI) Governance and Nuclear Weapons” (pp. 4–9), co-authored with @lbumeder.bsky.social. collections.fes.de/publikatione...
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Und wie es der Zufall so will, haben die Kollegen @tobiaspfella.bsky.social und @lbumeder.bsky.social eine Analyse zu konventioneller Abschreckung für @internationalepolitik.de verfasst, die man unbedingt auch gelesen haben sollte. internationalepolitik.de/de/risiken-d...
internationalepolitik.de
Risiken der Abschreckung
Können konventionelle Raketen Deutschland wirksam vor nuklearer Bedrohung schützen?
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Just one thing about Macron’s speech on nuclear deterrence — we told you so in 2025: Peace Report/Chapter 3/Page 92; lnkd.in/dicEcsVq
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Deep Cuts Project @deepcutsproject.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
📄 Our latest Issue Brief "Preserving the Moratorium on Explosive Nuclear Weapons Testing" by Lynn Rusten examines the current challenges and outlines how this critical norm can be upheld. 🔗 Read here: deepcuts.org/publications...
deepcuts.org
Preserving the Moratorium on Explosive Nuclear Weapons testing : DeepCuts
The Deep Cuts Project analyses the potential for US-Russian nuclear arms control under adversarial conditions.
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Deep Cuts Project @deepcutsproject.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
📢 New Issue Brief from the DeepCuts Commission 👉 One of the major non-proliferation achievements of the past 30 years has been the global moratorium on nuclear explosive testing. Rising tensions and renewed testing threats now put this norm and the CTBT’s legacy under serious pressure.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
New @deepcutsproject.bsky.social Issue Brief out, authored by Lynn Rusten — this one tackles nuclear testing. Timely and important read — don’t miss it. deepcuts.org/publications... @jonatomic.bsky.social @nukestrat.bsky.social @jjjcameron.bsky.social @shashj.bsky.social
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik @ifshhamburg.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Was passiert nun nach dem Ende des New START-Vertrags? @tobiaspfella.bsky.social im Interview mit dem ZDF heute journal ➡️ www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...
zdfheute.de
"Fundament für ein Wettrüsten ist gelegt"
Das New-Start-Abkommen habe zu Vetrauen beigetragen, sagt der Politikwissenschaftler Tobias Fella. Mit dem Auslaufen seien die "Schotten offen für ein Wettrüsten“.
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Deep Cuts Project @deepcutsproject.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
📢 New joint statement out from the DeepCuts Commission With the expiration of the New START Treaty on 5 February 2026, the U.S. and Russia will, for the first time in decades, have no bilateral nuclear arms control agreement in place.
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
"'Europe has been dependent on the United States . . .' Traut said. There was 'a strong need to build up some German and European sovereign capabilities in missile detection and interception . . . We not only want to be able to detect missiles early, we want to be able to fight them early.'"
ft.com
Germany plans satellite missile detection system to cut reliance on US
Berlin’s move reflects unease over depending on US capabilities to spot long-range missiles from space
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
For Europe, it will remain a balancing act. A sensible approach would be to channel the US‑requested increases in defence spending into strengthening genuinely European capabilities. Trump’s statements on burden‑sharing could provide pol. cover for such a strategy www.reuters.com/world/hegset...
reuters.com
Hegseth expected to follow Rubio in skipping NATO ministers' meeting, sources say
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is not expected to attend a NATO defence ministers' meeting in Brussels next month, two sources said, the second time in a row that a top Trump administration offic...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Proud to co‑author "Future Formats of Nuclear Arms Control" — a Deep Cuts brief on how traditional U.S.–Russia arms control has eroded and what practical formats (bilateral, multilateral, tech‑focused) could help stabilize nuclear great power relations. Read it here: deepcuts.org/publications...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
I co-authored a BAKS paper on the Jan 2026 Berlin blackout: Conditionally Resilient. It exposes gaps in Germany’s crisis preparedness amid growing sabotage threats. www.baks.bund.de/de/arbeitspa...
baks.bund.de
Bedingt resilient: Was der Berliner Blackout Anfang 2026 für die deutsche Krisenvorsorge bedeutet
Der Berliner Blackout Anfang 2026 verdeutlicht dringenden Handlungsbedarf für Resilienz und Krisenvorsorge in Deutschland, schreibt ein Autorenteam des IFSH. Foto: THW/Viktoria Pfeiffer
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Berlin's multi-day blackout in early 26 highlights how 🇩🇪's critical infrastructures remain insufficiently protected against sabotage & other threats. In a new IFSH Brief Analysis (in 🇩🇪), Wolfgang Rudischhauser, Matthias Schulze, Mateusz Łabuz & I address the consequences: www.ifsh.de/news-detail/...
ifsh.de
Tagelanger Stromausfall in Teilen Berlins: Was nun bei der Krisenvorsorge getan werden muss - IFSH
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Traditional, state-centric theories reach a dead end when it comes to explaining Trump’s foreign policy. In my new IFSH brief analysis (in 🇩🇪), From Venezuela to Greenland: Consequences of US hemispheric policy, I argue that fresh concepts are needed to grasp these shifts. www.ifsh.de/news-detail/...
ifsh.de
Von Venezuela bis Grönland: Konsequenzen der US-Hemisphärenpolitik - IFSH
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik @ifshhamburg.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Die USA bedrohen #Grönland (Dänemark) und setzen damit auch die #EU und die #NATO unter Druck. Welche Art von Außenpolitik verfolgt die US-Regierung unter Donald Trump? In seiner IFSH-Kurzanalyse nähert sich unser US-Experte @tobiaspfella.bsky.social dieser Frage an. Hier nachlesen ➡️ t1p.de/qfwnp
t1p.de
Von Venezuela bis Grönland: Konsequenzen der US-Hemisphärenpolitik - IFSH
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
"Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits angeordnet, so Putin." www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asie...
tagesschau.de
Nach Trumps Ankündigung: Putin erwägt Wiederaufnahme von Atomtests
Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
"U.S. military officials involved with President Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements [...] a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion." www.reuters.com/world/americ...
reuters.com
Exclusive: US military officials required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America mission, sources say
U.S. military officials involved with President Donald Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements, three U.S. officials say, a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion.
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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.
crisisgroup.org
High Stakes Promises: The Challenge of Security Guarantees for Ukraine | International Crisis Group
Ukraine is asking its partners for security guarantees – ideally now, but certainly before it makes any deal with Russia. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why this topic is so fraught for Ukr...
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.
crisisgroup.org
Drones over Poland | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker analyses the implications of the decision by Poland and its NATO allies to shoot down Russian drones over Polish territory on 9 September
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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Germany’s defence debate is stuck in a numbers game – more tanks, jets, and spending. @tobiaspfella.bsky.social and I argue that what’s missing is a genuine strategic debate. We illustrate this by examining the newly introduced category of “Medium Forces.”
nationalinterest.org
The Strategic Void in Germany’s Defense Debate
The debate on the Medium Forces can serve as an example of both the progress and the challenges of the German defense debate.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
What could Europe have done differently to have more say in its own security today? I discussed this with Web.de News in context of the upcoming Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, web.de/magazine/pol...
web.de
Die Großen reden – und die EU schaut zu
Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (CDU) hat im Vorfeld des Putin-Trump-Treffens in Alaska zu Vorbereitungsgesprächen geladen – unter anderem mit US-Präsident Donald Trump. Denn die Europäer treibt vor alle...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
I was interviewed by @zdfde.bsky.social (ZDFheute) about current discussions on territorial concessions ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...
zdfheute.de
Diskussion um Gebietsabtretungen
Vor den Gipfeln zu Wegen hin zu einem möglichen Frieden sorgt der Vorschlag von ukrainischen Gebietsabtretungen in der EU mehrheitlich für Ablehnung.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
I was interviewed by the Pforzheimer Zeitung and made the argument that we are currently in a phase of nuclear rearmament. www.pz-news.de/politik_arti...
pz-news.de
Am nuklearen Scheideweg: 80 Jahre nach Hiroshima warnt ein Experte im PZ-Gespräch - Politik - Pforzheimer-Zeitung
Pforzheim/Hiroshima. Es ist 8:16 Uhr an jenem 6. August 1945, als der Tod in Hiroshima vom Himmel fällt. Rund 80.000 Menschen sterben in einem ...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
I was interviewed by Jutta Sonnewald via @zdfde.bsky.social about the idea of a drone wall on NATO’s eastern border. www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...
zdfheute.de
Drohnen-Schutzschirm an der Nato-Ostflanke: Was hinter der Idee deutscher Start-Ups steckt
Rüstungsfirmen aus Deutschland wollen einen Schutzschirm aus Drohnen an der Nato-Ostflanke. Was steckt dahinter? Und was sagt die Bundeswehr?
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
I gave an interview to @rbb24.de about US policy on Ukraine. I explained why it’s of limited value to focus only on single Trump administration decisions. What matters is the structural transformation of the US and its consequences. www.inforadio.de/rubriken/int...
inforadio.de
Sicherheitsexperte: Trump bleibt Klarheit schuldig
Russland und die Ukraine sind von einem Frieden weit entfernt – was auch US-Präsident Trump frustriert. Der Sicherheitsexperte Tobias Fella sieht darin jedoch keine Wende in der Ukraine-Politik der US...
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Reposted by Tobias Fella
Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
„Der Begriff Drohnenwall suggeriert fälschlicherweise, es könnte eine einfache, günstige und flächendeckende Lösung zur Verteidigung der Nato-Ostflanke geben, die völlige Sicherheit bietet.“
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
My interview with Marc Hasse of DER SPIEGEL on the NATO drone wall was featured in a report by Web.de, web.de/magazine/pol...
web.de
Deutsches Start-up will allein mit 100.000 Drohnen Nato-Ostflanke verteidigen
Drohnen können Milliarden Euro teures Kriegsgerät und massenhafte Rekrutierung überflüssig machen, behauptet ein deutsches Start-up. Kann Verteidigung so einfach sein? Experten sehen die Aussage kriti...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Marc Hasse (@marc-hasse.bsky.social) from @spiegel.de interviewed me about the concept of a NATO drone wall. www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...
spiegel.de
(S+) Bedrohung durch Russland: 100.000 Drohnen an der Nato-Ostflanke – was würde das bringen?
Eine deutsche Firma wirbt für einen »Drohnenwall« zum Schutz gegen Russland. Tatsächlich haben die ferngesteuerten Flugobjekte den Krieg revolutioniert. Aber sie haben entscheidende Schwachpunkte.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
"President Donald Trump is expected to announce he has selected the path forward for his ambitious Golden Dome missile defense shield, a U.S. official said on Tuesday." www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
reuters.com
Trump to make Golden Dome announcement on Tuesday, US official says
President Donald Trump is expected to announce he has selected the path forward for his ambitious Golden Dome missile defense shield, a U.S. official said on Tuesday.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
"Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup", www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/19/s...
themoscowtimes.com
Satellite Images Show Russian Military Buildup Near Finland – NYT - The Moscow Times
Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup, The New York Times reported Monday.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
"U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had 'sort of' agreed to the terms." www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
reuters.com
Trump says US close to a nuclear deal with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the terms.
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
"French President Emmanuel Macron said he was 'ready to open a discussion' with European allies about stationing France’s nuclear weapons on their soil, in an effort to beef up defences against Russia." www.ft.com/content/9623...
ft.com
Emmanuel Macron open to stationing French nuclear weapons in other European nations
French president in talks with Germany and Poland over whether warheads can protect them against Russia
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Meine Kollegen @percepticon.bsky.social und Mateusz Łabuz zur Manipulierbarkeit von Large Language Models (vulgo: KI). Verstörend und lesenswert. background.tagesspiegel.de/it-und-cyber...
background.tagesspiegel.de
KI-Hintertür in die Demokratie
Es klingt beinahe dystopisch: Große Sprachmodelle reproduzieren Themen russischer Desinformation in 33 Prozent der von Forschenden beobachteten Fälle. Russische Desinformationsakteure versuchen zunehm...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Current developments in the US are the result of structural transformations. Focusing on individual actors alone provides an incomplete picture. Furthermore, the idealized image of America held by many transatlanticists is a myth that has contributed to ineffective European policies toward the US.
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Taking the Pulse: Can Europeans Build Their Independent Extended Nuclear Deterrent?
Confronted with a U.S. disengagement and the Russian threat, Europeans are reconsidering their stance on nuclear deterrence. Given the capabilities of the French and British arsenals, can Europe devel...
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Tobias Fella @tobiaspfella.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
"Pete Hegseth will not attend a gathering of 50 countries to coordinate military support for Ukraine, multiple European officials and a U.S. official said — the first time the coalition will gather without America’s secretary of defense participating." www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...
defensenews.com
In first, Hegseth to skip multinational meeting on Ukraine support
The April 11 meeting will mark the first time the coalition will gather without America’s secretary of defense participating.
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The Times and Sunday Times @thetimes.com · 31/03/2025
Britain will push ahead with a multi-billion pound deal to buy US fighter jets in defiance of European warnings that President Trump could disable the aircraft. Ministers are set to confirm the purchase of F-35 Lightnings instead of “expensive” Eurofighter Typhoons
thetimes.com
UK will buy US fighter jets despite Europe’s fears about Trump
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