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herman mark schwartz

@thunen.bsky.social
959 followers 69 following 2.6K posts

periodic posting on political economy issues, mostly charts, some shirts, weekly kittens. Sic semper tyrannis. States vs Markets 5th edition now out: www.bloomsbury.com/9781350458369

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Reposted by herman mark schwartz
James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 3h
A lot of rich guys want you to think that the bar on the right is always going to be bigger than the bar on the left.
Vertical bar chart titled "Norwegian wealth tax revenue, change from 2021 to 2024," in billions of Norwegian kroner (BNOK), nominal. Subtitle: top rate 0.85% to 1.1% and stock valuation discount cut from 2022.

Two bars. "Growth with no emigration": 13.71 BNOK, a tall bar. "Lost to reform-driven emigration": 0.65 BNOK, a barely visible stub, about one-twenty-first the height.

Notes: Growth includes the rate and valuation changes and wealth growth. Net of tax that emigrants still paid, the reform-driven loss is 0.49 BNOK.

Source: Ring (2026), NBER Working Paper 35854, equation 2 and figure 5.
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Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 5h
“It’s just absurd.” youtu.be/P6sGqYclxr0
youtu.be
It's totally even a city!
YouTube video by Visit OSLO
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Anjali Dayal @anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 5h
I don't want to dunk-quote on this person, but actually, this is a perfect illustration of the problem. we can't become accustomed to or expect or concede constant monitoring from armed troops as we go about our business. it should always make us recoil. there's danger in it becoming unremarkable.
screenshot of a post that reads "Not to be all "you're getting sold" National Guard troops spend all day standing in out of the way corners of DC. Not great that they're standing in front of a ballot drop box, but c'mon, people, use some common sense. They're not stopping anyone from dropping something off." it is a quote-post of a post from the DC Council that says "this is clearly not acceptable" and features a photo of national guard members standing around a ballot box in Foggy Bottom
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 9h
If Stephen Moore, whose judgement and veracity is sorely lacking (plus as a doctrinaire libertarian no real understanding of economics) is praising someone, you know that someone is not a god choice.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 13h
#theywantyoudead 163 Also the biggest of false economies as (some of) these folks will eventually age into Medicare and then costs there will rise (unless you also cut / defund Medicare or cost shift to people… oh… wait…)
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 09/10/2026
I mean that's the goal, right? Make the U.S. a rentier state.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 13h
I guess the Guardians Of Pedophiles are setting up the shift from building Dachaus to building Auschwitzes
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Phenomenal World @phenomenalworld.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Phenomenal World Books now officially publishes books. GREENBACK EMPIRE by Ho-fung Hung THE FISCAL FED by Will Bateman Both out October 29. Order your copies now: press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/se...
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
age old debate resolved! hope he provides us with a definition of the "working class" next. and maybe explains the origins of capitalism in high-T, ethnically homogenous, religiously orthodox Britain in 1600.
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Benjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 08/10/2026
The perfect anecdote encapsulating the relationship between this administration and the collapse of US empire does not ex...
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I vote recession.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Why it’s not an exaggeration to call them concentration camps ala Dachau. The steady drip of deaths and stories about abuse are deliberate features.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
This will surely restore the presumption of regularity (non-USAians: the notion that judges can assume the state is not lying, concealing evidence, or otherwise behaving improperly in court)
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Alejandra Caraballo @esqueer.net · 07/10/2026
The court is basically saying that knowledge of the victim being trans is potentially exculpatory for a self defense legal claim. This is explicitly greenlighting the panic defense and saying a victims trans status might excuse a murder.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Right-wing radicalization ≠ polarization Right-wing radicalization ≠ polarization Right-wing radicalization ≠ polarization Right-wing radicalization ≠ polarization Right-wing radicalization ≠ polarization Right-wing radicalization ≠ polarization Right-wing radicalization ≠ polarization
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Yakov Feygin @buddyyakov.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Ok. I don't agree with this interpretation for many reasons already bounced around in other places. 1) It's kind of impossible to crowd out investment since credit is basically infinitely elastic as long as the financial sector thinks there is an acceptable future return -- Kalecki!
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Phenomenal World @phenomenalworld.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Why is the far-right gaining ground, from Germany to Brazil? How can we respond? Join us in New York City to launch @isabellamweber.bsky.social’s urgent new book on these questions, ANTI-FASCIST ECONOMICS, together with @dwallacewells.bsky.social. Sign up now: bit.ly/antifascist-economics
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
real "Imperial Palace grounds worth more than all California real estate" for those of you who remember the 1980s Japanese bubble NVIDIA's market capitalization now is a larger %age of the MS All World Capital Index than all Japanese firms.
a chart showing that NVIDIA's market capitalization now is a larger %age of the MS All World Capital Index than all Japanese firms.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
the ability to delay purchase: outside of preventative care, minimal. result: high costs, inconsistent treatment, worse human and financial outcomes. true even for the 65+ old population as half are in the PHI medicare advantage market. www.healthcaredive.com/news/insuran...
healthcaredive.com
Insurance doesn’t protect US adults from medical debt, Commonwealth Fund finds
One-third of privately insured adults have unpaid debt to a healthcare provider, illustrating how medical debt isn't limited to uninsured people or those facing major medical emergencies.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
no major information asymmetries: but try finding out prices given the complexity of PHI deals with providers. or even if treatment will work. huge principal-agent problems + moral hazard on part of PHI firms (delay, deny = higher profits) + fragmetned market = admin costs
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
private health insurance (PHI) cannot work relative to public insurance / care. for markets to work you need: competition, but this necessarily fragments the risk pool & is vulnerable to correlated risk (eg Covid epidemic). US PHI is an oligopolistic market - 4 firms = 80% policies URL on post # 3
Dive Brief
Insurance doesn’t protect US adults from medical debt, Commonwealth Fund finds
One-third of privately insured adults have unpaid debt to a healthcare provider, illustrating how medical debt isn’t limited to uninsured people or those facing major medical emergencies

Published Sept. 18, 2026
By Jill Hughes, Reporter
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Matthew Gillikin @mtgillikin.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I’m going to be thinking about this constantly moving forward
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
oh wow, so great! $90! sad that medicare part B premiums went up by $215 this year, and the deductible $24, and part D deductible up $25 and maximum out of pocket $100, i guess net that $90 just evaporated. meanwhile ACA net premiums are up 58% and 2.6 million people dropped coverage. WSJ 3 Oct 2026
Politics
Policy
Trump Announces Another Payment to Voters Ahead of Midterms
The president says he’ll send $90 to Medicare recipients to offset premiums, the latest financial pledge as Republicans trail in key contests
By Marianne LeVine
Oct. 3, 2026 2:34 pm ET
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
that last sentence though... quite the subtweet.
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Noah Berlatsky @nberlat.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
burglars have found creative ways to enter homes. embezzlers have found creative accounting methods.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
#empiresuicidewatch 150 the state is for sale.
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Bent Sofus Tranøy @bentsofus.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Klassekampen ba meg skrive om Epstein høringen. Den ble ganske intetsigende. Her er mitt forsøk på å skrive ikke-intetsigende om hvorfor det ble slik klassekampen.no/artikkel/202...
klassekampen.no
KOMMENTAR: Høring uten snøring
Kontroll- og konstitusjonskomiteen «brought a knife to a gunfight», skriver Bent Sofus Tranøy.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
#caturday ! This is cyclone who had a little surgery on his ear, is a very very cuddly lap cat and now has a forever home. The grey "necklace" is from the post-op cone of shame.
A black cat with a damaged ear
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
17/
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
the affordability president has a plan to make soap cheaper for Americans, so ICE, etc can spend less money when they are in Lady MacBeth mode. 🧵⬇️
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Tom Hancock @tomhancock.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Neoclassical labor economists have discovered Harry Braverman
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
he's a Rahm Emmanuel reboot for the party.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
get lucky once -> undeserved credibility. really lucky -> a TV show (Cramer). anyway here is the morningstar chart comparing S&P500 index (red line), Vanguard's total world stock market index (VTWAX - green) and SFTBY ADRs (blue - a proxy for Softbank since 2013). not much alpha or Buffett there!
a chart of monthly growth of net asset value for the S&P500 (red), Vanguard total world stock market (VTWAX - green) and Softbank ADRs (Blue)
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
was talking with an investment banker on behalf of the UVA endowment folks and s/he brought up softbank as a good model and i was like: these people are incompetents who got lucky 1x (Alibaba early funding). #softbankasperformanceart it was just before WeWork collapsed.
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Robert Pauls @robertpauls.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
CfP: Network Q Asian Capitalisms — SASE 2027, Glasgow 30 June – 3 July 2027 "Remaking Asian Capitalisms – New Paths of Development in Times of Disruption" We'd like to see more contributions on South and Southeast Asia, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea! robertpauls.net/network_q_cfp #SASE2027
robertpauls.net
SASE Network Q CfP 2027 — Asian Capitalisms
Call for Papers for SASE 2027 in Glasgow. Deadline 16 December 2026.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
#empiresuicidewatch 150 🌮 doing the lord's work. lord putin that is.
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Matthew Gillikin @mtgillikin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This is going to further the public health disaster Trump and the Republican Party are orchestrating
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
free link: www.wsj.com/business/aut...
wsj.com
American Car Buyers Rediscover Sedans, Small SUVs as Gas Prices Bite
In the third quarter, overall sales stalled with GM reporting a 5.5% overall decline.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
and not even one day later, chaser! both Wall Street Journal, 01 Oct 26 of course of course, once the forever war in the mideast is over, petrol prices will fall... until the next war.
American Car Buyers Rediscover Sedans, Small SUVs as Gas Prices Bite
Overall sales stalled in the third quarter, with GM reporting a 5.5% decline
By Ryan Felton and Christopher Otts
Oct. 1, 2026 2:57 pm ETAmerican car buyers are rediscovering smaller vehicles.

General Motors GM 3.00%increase; up pointing triangle posted a big rise in sales of its small SUVs in the third quarter, including the Chevrolet Trax and Trailblazer. Sales of the Hyundai Elantra sedan jumped 18%. Toyota Motor’s small Corolla is sharply up this year. All carry sticker prices starting below $25,000.

Meanwhile, sales of some big SUVs struggled. GM recorded declines in hulking SUVs like the Chevrolet Suburban and Tahoe. Hyundai’s three-row Palisade SUV dropped 1% in the third quarter. Jeep’s Grand Cherokee declined by 30%.

“Thank God we never gave up on passenger cars because that’s helping us gain a little bit of share in the marketplace,” said Randy Parker, chief executive of Hyundai Motor America, at an Automotive News event in Detroit on Wednesday.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
shot
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
today's profits = today's bonuses. apres moi... in 2019 i asked a DEU luxo CEO "what happens to the parts producer workers when you go to EVs?" "I don't care" was the response. now it's 'i don't care about muy own workers long term jobs as we downsize to nothing but luxo'
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Whitney Curry Wimbish @whitneycwimbish.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Another person has died in Trump's concentration camps. 47-year-old Julian Curo-Churata was from Peru. He died on Sept. 29 after he was imprisoned for three months in Richwood Correctional Center in Louisiana. That camp is run by LaSalle Corrections. There's no cause of death listed.
ice.gov
Illegal alien from Peru passes away in ICE custody in Louisiana
ICE is committed to ensuring that all those in custody reside in safe, secure and humane environments.
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Joshua Schwartz @joshschwartz.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I'm very grateful for the opportunity to share my academic research with the policy community. Thank you so much to @perryworldhouse.bsky.social and @foreignaffairs.com for this honor!
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#empiresuicidewatch 149 i guess we have reached the "praying for victory since nothing else will work" phase of the war with iran.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#theywantyoudead 162 universal programs save more money than these paperwork exercises whose only purpose is to keep folks from getting help under the excuse of preventing fraud. paperwork creates fraud! but lowers states' fiscal costs so they can tax rich people more lightly.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
European luxo firms, losing market share in China, double down on a stagnant US market for ICE-engine giant SUVs that can't be sold anywhere else in volume. losing total overall production volume they will wither in the face of cheaper Chinese mass market EVs. betting on the past!
Europe’s Luxury Carmakers Are Supersizing Their SUVs for Americans
BMW, Audi and Volvo are among the automakers trying to boost U.S. sales to offset weakness in Europe and Chinaa chart showing the size of the largest US SUV and proposed Audi and BMW competitors.
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#empiresuicidewatch 148 It’s a long thread but the quotes are short (i guess Hegseth cannot form ciceronian sentences) ⬇️
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Audie Klotz @audieklotz.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🤮 #ImpeachHegseth #SecretaryOfWarCrimes
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
"The entire tax code needs to be overhauled if a guy like Zuckerberg can cash $4 billion in stock options and the company can write it off and avoid paying $355 million in taxes by calling him a "researcher" " -- @scarylawyerguy x.com/scarylawyerg...
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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#empiresuicidewatch 147 Obviously the answer will be to form a manly testosterone fueled group of highly lethal Super Soldiers to be known by their initials
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