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Con Flambers

@themagicconch19.bsky.social
2.3K followers 791 following 9.2K posts

Tempered optimist. Wisconsin politics and other things. Certified EMT. Opinions are mine and mine alone. He/him Blog doing deep dives on politics and history here - delving-deeper.ghost.io.

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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 17m
Some say that non-MAGA Republicans are a mirage, but they're the reason the Dems have made big inroads in the WOW counties in Wisconsin. Here's proof: Elm Grove in Waukesha Co is rich. It is one of the wealthiest communities in WI. Here's 2012, 2016, and 2024. Went from Romney+36 to Harris+1.
A data table showing the results for Elm Grove, Wisconsin. It reads,

"Village of Elm Grove, Wisconsin (population 6,524)						
	2012	Dem margin	2016	Dem margin	2024	Dem margin
Dem %	31.6	-36.1	39.9	-13.5	49.7	1.1
Rep %	67.7		53.4		48.6	"
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 34m
Dems who are favorable to democratic socialists have a more favorable view of David Crowley than Dems who aren't favorable to democratic socialists From Marquette: 92% fave, 4% unfave - Dems who don't view dem socialists favorably 98% fave, 2% unfave - Dems who do view dem socialists favorably
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 48m
This is why my "When It Happens" moment isn't Trump (though he obviously bears responsibility for this too) - it's Musk. Elon Musk is a scourge upon humanity, and the day he departs this world will be a cause for celebration.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 1h
Before I do though, if you're concerned about this poll... I recommend channeling it into action. You can find a canvass or phone bank here: www.mobilize.us
mobilize.us
Volunteer Opportunities, Events, and Petitions Near Me · Mobilize
Create change in your community. Find events, petitions, volunteer opportunities, and fundraisers in your local area, organized by charities, campaigns, political organizations, grassroots groups, and...
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 6h
New Marquette poll for Wisconsin governor is out: Crowley 49% Tiffany 46% (likely voters) Crowley 46% Tiffany 45% (registered voters) Will analyze some of its other results later
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AdotSad @adotsad.bsky.social · 10h
I'm sorry no, voters aren't getting a pass on this one.
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paul khruangbin (Dan Lehner) @danlehner.bsky.social · 11h
“‘Choosin’ Texas’? Ha, no pardner, I’m Choosin’ TAXES. Howdy, I’m Big Jim Medlock and I’m here to tell you how the social democratic welf
James Medlock (really Karl Polyani) wearing a cowboy hat
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FLAVOR FLAV ⏰ @flavorflav.bsky.social · 21h
Know their names: Scott Kretzschmar, Scott Norris, Diego Sarabia, Gillio Lopes, Winston Lee, Johnathan Newell and Matthew Ingalls #Cornell7 But also, everyone in the group chat, the administrators, university, and DA. SHAME.
Cornell 7Disgusting chat
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 18h
Just got done watching Smile 2. It's a good thing EMS education beams a lot of terrible visuals into your head, otherwise I might be a lot more bothered by what I just saw
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 21h
Hmmm... after the Republicans beclowned themselves today at the Jack Smith hearing, considering shifting the focus back to "how stupid these evil people are."
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 23h
I would die for the Weird Puppies at the Sacramento SPCA
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 22h
I read the first half and was like, "alright, good statement..." and then read the second paragraph and I was like, "oh HELL YEAH"
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Mere Smith @evilgalprods.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
FATALITY
A tweet from Joyce Carol Oates: overall takeaway from the Curtis Yarvin profile is that there must be millions of smart-aleck show-offy kids who annoy their teachers and go on to annoy other adults through their lives with their “contrarian” pose that hardens to a carapace over their faces; until, as adults, they still harbor a delusion that, if there is a king, or a fuhrer, he’d be impressed with the guys motor mouth and appoint him to his cabinet rather than deleting him with a negligent swipe of his wrist as Stalin did routinely.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 22h
One thing WI-01 is going to test is how much fundraising is gonna matter for vulnerable Republicans. Bryan Steil is massively outraising his Dem challenger Mitchell Berman according to FEC data (tho caveat: we don't have fundraising numbers from the past ~2 months yet). He might lose regardless.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Imagine calling yourself a leftist and then paying Elon Musk of all people to be signal boosted by his Nazi algorithm. Can't make this stuff up
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Zoomer Antimillenarian @surcomplicated.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
FWIW, I think a fuckup on this scale in time to wreck them electorally was *almost* inevitable from Day 1, precisely because this is the Special Birthday Boy presidency in which there are almost no limits on Trump's madness and every proposed policy disaster has a real shot at going all the way.
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Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
renaissance painting when the renaissance is really fucking stupid
senator schmitt and his two idiot staffers after making a generational fuck up
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mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
it is important to realize that many reporters for mainstream outlets are enthusiastic cogs in this elite-coordinated propaganda machine. don't print lies in the newspaper
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Hunter Dunn @hunterisntdunn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This is antisemitism. This isn’t leftism. This isn’t anti-Zionism. This isn’t progressive activism. This is just blatant antisemitism.
Guy Christensen being antisemitic
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Liberal Currents @liberalcurrents.com · 29/09/2026
"The first step to defeating fascism in this country is to throw the fascists out of office and thereby remove the instruments of power they use to oppress people like the Haitian community in Springfield. But there is a longer, harder struggle ahead, that cannot be solved with power alone."
liberalcurrents.com
Editor's Notes: Your Local Fascists
We know what to do with Trump and his stooges. The harder question is what to do with the ordinary Americans we will have to live alongside afterwards.
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sleepynaut @grovewalker.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
photo of werner herzog with a speech bubble added so that it looks like he is saying the quoted post
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In press release, David Crowley says he would open up BadgerCare as a public option. Crowley: "All Wisconsin families should have access to affordable healthcare, no ifs, ands, or buts."
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
One of the most notable features of this election cycle is Republican politicians in red areas, used to normally easily winning their very red seats and thus feeling entitled to keeping them, now giving limp-dicked responses to being challenged on their bullshit.
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Hannah Vardit @hannahvardit.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
i worry that men think being A Good Guy is dramatically and heroically intervening on behalf of an endangered woman and then being publicly rewarded on a grand scale when actually being A Good Guy is just usually saying, “hey man that’s not funny” or “wow that’s fucked up” and there is no reward
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I was curious about WI-07, and the fundraising numbers there are a bit interesting: Republican Michael Alfonso (Duffy's son-in-law) is outraising Democrat Fred Clark... but not overwhelmingly so, given how red the district is. We'll know more when the Q3 fundraising reports come in in October.
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ringa ringa roses @zyla.top · 28/09/2026
HEY IM BAWKIN HERE
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Jean-Michel Connard @torriangray.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I genuinely think the rape accusations are a bonus for some of these people. It's transgressive to elevate utter pieces of shit just to spite the libs. It's not like he's some incredible talent, he's just an unfunny dipshit who stupid people think is smart because he has a British accent.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I started following Emily when she was running a long shot bid for an assembly seat back in 2024, and I genuinely think she is one of the most excellent, good-hearted people in politics today. Wisconsin is lucky to have her.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
CW: discussion of rape I think my feeling about the situation with Cornell not taking the vicious assault of a young woman by 7 men seriously is not that what happened is an aberration; it's how common and accepted it is. A lot of America has decided that sexual assault is not a dealbreaker.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
NEW: The Recombobulation Area is endorsing Robyn Vining, Mark Becker and Emily Tseffos for State Senate. www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/three-endo...
therecombobulationarea.com
Three endorsements from The Recombobulation Area
We are endorsing three candidates running for State Senate — Robyn Vining, Mark Becker and Emily Tseffos — and hosting podcast conversations with each of them. Listen / watch here.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Also people joke about dictator margins but the WI-07 Dem primary this year was a pretty tight 3-way race between Clark and two other candidates, with Clark winning with only ~38%. But Bayfield County, one of the liberal base areas in the district, LOVES their man (Clark lives in the area)
A screenshot showing the results of Bayfield County, Wisconsin. Fred Clark won 73.92% of the vote here, with 2,659 votes. Ginger Murray came in a distant second with 13.73% of the vote with 494 votes, and Chris Armstrong came in third with 12.34% of the vote and 444 votes.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
My ratings for the 4 most-watched House races in Wisconsin. Keep in mind that I generally am not big on doing ratings these days, but will make an exception here because people have been asking me: WI-03: likely Dem WI-01: tossup WI-08: lean Rep WI-07: likely Rep
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Museum of Twitter @museum-of-twitter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
@ddeaen

iphones ruined an entire generation's tech literacy because i regularly see 14+ year olds asking how to make a desktop shortcut or duplicate a File

@inkballpro

i was literally figuring out virtual machines and basic linux at like 6 lol

@ddeaen

this is also not normal im sorry
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Rachel Zegler is so cool and talented and stunning, they could never make me hate her.
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Phil Klinkner @pklinkne.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I really love this chart. I'm guess that the correlation here (.85) is about as big as you would find for any other variable. Also, a less serious scholar than @tesler.bsky.social (namely me) would have made a crude Freudian reference to the slope of the line.
Chart shows a close positive relationship between Trump's 2024 vote and Google searches for testosterone boosters.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
On the one hand, American capitalism has failed to give all of the population of the US healthcare and caused mass institutional decay, but on the other, it's given us Liberty Biberty, so it's impossible to say if it's bad or not,
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
You know this guy could talk your ears off for hours about peanut crop yields and the present state of world peanut markets fr fr
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Cooper Lund @cooperlund.online · 28/09/2026
The GOP is an opposition party even when it's in power, the idea that they are the perpetual underdog is central to their internal mythology and can't be disturbed by facts or the results of elections. It's also why they're bad at, you know, governing.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I do think there's a nonzero number of Trump disapprovers among the people who disapprove of him because they're like, "goddamn it, he's ruining the fascist project!" It's why that while I'd love for the Dems to get like... 65% of the vote, on a tsunami night they're maybe getting 56-57%.
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Snowden St. @snowden.st · 27/09/2026
you get to be a reactionary, you don’t get to be a principled person that avoids any kind of historical or personal accountability. that’s the consequences you chose.
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Snowden St. @snowden.st · 27/09/2026
you can’t stop them from trying, but we can do the work right now to help other folks not help their conservative friends from owning this world-renowned destruction of government under “conservative principles.” Let them make their bed with the hounds.
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Snowden St. @snowden.st · 27/09/2026
there are a non-zero number of Quiet Conservatives that fully expect to be treated the same as they always have. They’re embarrassed by Trump, and will be the first to say “it was so embarrassing” when it’s over, try to claim the mantle of their principles. they’ll rely on their social peers to help
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
For some, the internet is a wondrous machine of wisdom, ever widening the frontiers of human knowledge ... for others, it's the mental illness factory
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Aubrey Gilleran @aubreygilleran.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I will not engage in too much hopium about Blansas, but if it happens, it's the race that puts the GOP into an existential crisis, probably even more than Texas. Marshall is an incumbent and was a congressman before that. He's not Paxton. He's awful in the way most Republican incumbents are awful.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Take it from someone who has the misfortune of being a constituent of @therealdvo.bsky.social: he's genuinely a believer in fascism.
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
As someone who saw it last night: this tracks. My friend and I were some of the older people in the audience and we're 31 and 32 lol Also: I love Robert Pattinson
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Vituperative Erb @vituperativeerb.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
For the statement “the Democratic Party is more evil than it was in 1996” to be true you have to assume “evil” includes some combination of LGBTQ rights, expanding healthcare, criminal justice reform, abortion, and green energy/climate
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Con Flambers @themagicconch19.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Gonna do a new bit where when some rando comes into my mentions to be hostile, I'm just gonna say, "my brother, you are channeling your rage at strangers on the internet, when you could be enjoying the Creed masterpiece that is 'One Last Breath'" www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnku...
youtube.com
Creed - One Last Breath (Official HD Music Video)
YouTube video by CreedVEVO
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Nathan Goldwag @goldwagnathan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
It is entirely true that, no matter how righteous or justified your cause, or how carefully you manage your rules of engagement, you are going to kill people in war who don't deserve to die. This is why you should not start wars unless there really isn't any other possible choice.
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