Sign in

Tahir Enes Gedik

@tegedik.bsky.social
385 followers 829 following 97 posts

sociology, quantitative methods, comparative survey research, trust tegedik.github.io

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
a new paper forthcoming in Social Forces! focusing on the killing of George Floyd & the BLM, I study the formation of generations, proposing that formative events can create within-cohort differentiation as much as between-cohort differentiation. read here: tkeskinturk.github.io/imprinting.pdf
Generational Imprinting: How Political Events Shape Cohorts
Contemporary narratives of generational politics propose that formative experiences produce shared political opinions across an age cohort. In this article, I advance a theory of cohortization to challenge that view, arguing that large-scale political events produce differentiation within cohorts as much as differentiation between them. I investigate the implications of this framework through the killing of George Floyd and the subsequent Black Lives Matter protests in 2020, analyzing attitudes toward law enforcement among non-Hispanic White Americans from 2016 to 2024. Using survey data from Cooperative Congressional Election Study, American National Election Study, and the Nationscape, I show that younger and older cohorts diverged after the event, but this differentiation was driven exclusively by young Democrats and Independents. The end result was not a unified generation, but one internally divided along party lines. This finding qualifies theories of generational politics, emphasizing that formative experiences may intensify existing political divisions within cohorts.

This is my generation
This is my generation, baby
My, my, my, my generation
— The Who, “My Generation” (1965)
16418
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Special Issue: Explanation and Causality in Sociology: link.springer.com/journal/1157...
link.springer.com
KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie
Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie / Cologne Journal of Sociology and Social Psychology  Founded in 1948, with a focus on theory ...
023
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Lucas Sage @l-sage.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
A note in response to Lionel Page, “Why has sociology become so politicised?” lsage1.substack.com/p/a-note-in-...
lsage1.substack.com
A note in response to Lionel Page, “Why has sociology become so politicised?”
From a quantitative sociologist
1217
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 30/07/2026
New blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...
the100.ci
Reviewer notes: Odds ratios are really odd
When psychological researchers investigate binary outcomes, they routinely report odds ratios to quantify the strength of an effect or an association. This is quite understandable given that psycholog...
2428779
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
lrb.co.uk
Emily Wilson · An Uncomplicated Man
As they say at the awards shows, I was humbled to learn that Christopher Nolan has read at least the first line of my...
001
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/07/2026
Link to the paper (it's open access!): compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... >
compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Thinking Clearly About Sampling and Representation With the Total Survey Error Framework
Collecting a sample that represents the population of interest well constitutes a challenge across the social and behavioural sciences. Psychology in particular frequently relies on convenience sampl...
4325
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
The R Foundation @r-foundation.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
The 2026 Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics has been awarded to the R Project. #RStats www.rousseeuwprize.org/2026
rousseeuwprize.org
The Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics
The Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics is a biennial prize to celebrate outstanding contributions to statistics research.
2280106
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Don’t forget to sort the variables independently: stats.stackexchange.com/questions/18...
stats.stackexchange.com
What happens if the explanatory and response variables are sorted independently before regression?
Suppose we have data set $(X_i,Y_i)$ with $n$ points. We want to perform a linear regression, but first we sort the $X_i$ values and the $Y_i$ values independently of each other, forming data set $...
030
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
A new Claude emerges from the subterranean heats and slimes of the earth and then thousands of GPUs shriek in unison as they are whipped to count the r's in strawberry and give advice about walking to the car wash
49215
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
I adopted this workflow and created a simplified version using R, quarto, and only Claude (high effort sonnet 4.6). I kept the prompts with minimal changes, but executed them one after another, and checked the artifacts created (codes, reports, etc.).
3167
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
What can we learn from automating an entire quantitative social science paper, from prompt to finished product? Thread about ongoing work with @natewilmers.bsky.social 1/12 Paper: osf.io/preprints/so...
25277106
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Just wrapped up another year of Quant 2, my PhD-level causal inference course. Lots of updates to the literature this year, did an "estimator tournament" as part of an assignment on DID estimators, and included regular in-class pen and paper exercises. Materials here: cyrussamii.com?page_id=4190
cyrussamii.com
[2026 Spring] POLS GA 1251 Quant II – Cyrus Samii
27114
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Are there any studies that systematically explore how van Fraassen’s CE travels to the social sciences? I found some discussions here and there, but nothing comprehensive.
001
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Rob Calver @robcalver.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Very excited to announce that the #BayesianWorkflow book by @statmodeling.bsky.social, @avehtari.bsky.social, @rmcelreath.bsky.social et al publishes in June! routledge.com/9780367490140 #RStats #DataScience #Bayesian
110323
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
www.publicbooks.org/albert-o-hir...
publicbooks.org
B-Sides: Albert O. Hirschman’s “The Passions and the Interests” - Public Books
“The Passions and the Interests” charms the reader as it persuades. Much of that charm is about its content as well as its style.
000
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
12679215
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Berna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Fontana thinking his 6000+ experiments may not have been enough to feel confident in his conclusions in the 18th century while we expect our singular experiments and their standalone replications to do wonders some 250 years later... (excerpt from the intro of Jutta Schickore's About Experiment)
Toward the end of his two-volume Treatise on the Venom of the Viper, published in 1781, the Tuscan naturalist Deluxe Fontana declared: "I have made more than 6000 experiments; I have had more than 4000 animals bit; I have employed upwards of 3000 vipers and may have been deceived; some essential circumstance may have escaped me: I may have neglected some other, not thinking it necessary; my consequences may have been too general, my experiments too few in number. In a word, I may very easily have been mistaken, and it would be almost impossible that I should never have been so in a matter so difficult, so obscure, and likewise so new."
517437
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 25/02/2026
New blog post! After years of annoying shenanigans, I discovered that nowadays it's *really* straightforward to get tikz diagrams in #QuartoPub to automatically turn into SVGs in HTML, docx, and Typst! Install Inkscape, install a Quarto extension, and you're done. www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2026/02...
2. Install the diagram extension in a Quarto project. Create a new Quarto project. From the terminal, run this to install the diagram extension:

quarto install extension pandoc-ext/diagram

3. Tell your document to use the extension. Add this to the YAML header of a Quarto document:

filters:
  - diagram

4. Add a .tikz block to your document. Add a tikz code block to your document like this:

```{.tikz}
\begin{tikzpicture}[>={stealth}]
  \node (x) at (0,0) {$X_{t}$};
  \node (y) at (2,0) {$Y_{t + 1}$};
  \node (z) at (1,1) {$Z$};
  \path[->] (z) edge (x);
  \path[->] (z) edge (y);
  \path[->] (x) edge (y);
\end{tikzpicture}
```

5. Render! Render the document to PDF and you should see a diagram. Render it to HTML or .docx or Typst and it should use inkscape to convert it to SVG. Magic.
210717
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students. I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
course schedule as a table. Available at the link in the post.
12660233
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Mel Andrews @bayesianboy.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
If you have to read anything about the prospect of “automating scientific discovery,” “agents for science,” or integrating LLMs into scientific pipelines, please let it be this essay by Kevin T. Baker: artificialbureaucracy.substack.com/p/context-wi...
28925
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
cyrussamii.com
Survey experiments and the credibility revolution – Cyrus Samii
67737
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Rearranging variables can make this clearer. In plot below, it's relatively easy to see that total effect needs no adjustment, and that direct effect from A to Y needs to block the indirect path that traverses D and C. D is a collider, and C the child of the collider, hence adjustment on B is needed
DAG display
3336
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Well
"Is it really impossible to imagine productive engagement with sociologists who take Bourdieu or Bauman seriously?"
100
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
poorlydrawnlines.com
https://poorlydrawnlines.com/
000
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Ewige Wiederkunft but for academics.
120
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Great piece on the absurdity of brute force multiverse analyses. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Robustness is better assessed with a few thoughtful models than with billions of regressions | PNAS
Robustness is better assessed with a few thoughtful models than with billions of regressions
417156
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
bookdown.org/amesoudi/ABM...
bookdown.org
Simulation Models of Cultural Evolution in R
<p>This tutorial shows how to create very simple simulation or agent-based models of cultural evolution in R</p>
000
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
A meme with two panels. In panel 1 the woman looks disgusted. In panel 2 intrigued.

Text, panel 1: fake data.

Text, panel 2: silicon sample
23412
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
stats.stackexchange.com/questions/66...
stats.stackexchange.com
What's the most appropriate formulation for this logistic multilevel model?
I'm running a multilevel logistic regression in which I estimate the probability the authors of scientific papers will make a particular sort of error in reporting a null hypothesis significance te...
020
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Preprint and the website by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and @vincentab.bsky.social are great, and I got inspired to illustrate Bayesian workflow for model checking and comparison *before* model interpretation following their friendship importance example users.aalto.fi/~ave/casestu...
users.aalto.fi
Friends model checking case study
28820
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25/08/2025
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities

Abstract
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).
Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals).

Illustrated are 
1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals
2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and
3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
461001285
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
One more reason to be on CV.
I am confused. Your title mentions multinomial independent variables, and then you discuss "questions about different experiences in the healthcare system" (implying multiple questions), and then "this variable is dichotomized" sounds like a single variable, and nothing multinomial about that. Can you please explain just what your indepedent and dependent variables are? (Also, can you move away from dichotomania?) – 
Stephan Kolassa
 Commented2 hours ago

@Stephan Kolassa The problem is misnamed. The problem is dichotophilia, an unreasonable affection for dichotomies. – 
Nick Cox
 Commented2 hours ago 

@NickCox: I have to respectfully disagree. Mania is characterized by "a state of abnormally elevated arousal, affect, and energy level", which quite evidently is involved when people apparently derive deep satisfaction from dichotomizing inherently numerical observations. – 
Stephan Kolassa
 Commented2 hours ago

Why do we say necrophilia? (Actually I don't usually talk about it, but there you go.) – 
Nick Cox
 Commented1 hour ago
https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/668701/what-is-the-right-way-to-handle-multinomial-independent-variables-in-logistic-re
100
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
New #rstats blog up! solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07... This is the first in a brief series where we use {brms} to learn {Stan} code. Many thanks to @fusaroli.bsky.social and @stephenjwild.bsky.social for their helpful reviews.
solomonkurz.netlify.app
Learn Stan with brms, Part I | A. Solomon Kurz
y ~ 1
110335
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
{tinytable} is a dead simple, ultra-flexible, and dependency-free #Rstats 📦 to turn data frames into beautiful tables: html, word, pdf, latex, typst, markdown, etc. v0.10.0 has cool new features and important bug fixes. Check out the detailed tutorials at: vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/
1228366
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Oh, no: www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/...
000
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Every time I write "the literature is mixed" what I mean is "I don't want to talk about it"
1356
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Thom Scott-Phillips @thomscottphillips.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
New Substack post It's very personal: my story of a 20-year academic career, and the many challenges of theoretical and cross-disciplinary work As I put it in the subtitle: There is a lot of success and a lot of pain here, and no happy ending thomscottphillips.substack.com/p/happy-in-t...
thomscottphillips.substack.com
Happy In Theory
This is the short story of my long, 20 year search for a stable academic home. There is a lot of success and a lot of pain here, and no happy ending.
1810541
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
This is discouraging (in a good way). I guess things will get very complicated very quickly.
120
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Dirk Eddelbuettel @eddelbuettel.com · 20/04/2025
The "Getting Started in R - Tinyverse Edition" eight-page pdf guide now has a 2nd edition using, appropriately, `tinyplot` as the plotting package. See github.com/eddelbuettel... for more. #rstats
Screenshot of the top parts of pages 5 and 6 of 'Getting Started in R - Tinyverse Edition' at https://github.com/eddelbuettel/gsir-te/
310724
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Not aging well (btw authors did not claim that).
000
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
I think this part is quite helpful if you want to figure out why you would like to use variables argument with avg_predictions: marginaleffects.com/chapters/com...
marginaleffects.com
6  Counterfactual comparisons – Model to Meaning
011
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Hey I know this, it’s my life (minus decent career) but
media.tenor.com
a close up of a man with the words i 'm tryin ' ringo written on his face
Alt: Jules saying “I'm tryin' Ringo. I’m tryin’ real… hard” (from Pulp Fiction).
000
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
I spoke with @cathleenogrady.bsky.social for this story on the many analysts paper in ecology. To me the concerning thing is the interpretation, not the (expected) finding. www.science.org/content/arti...
science.org
Even faced with the same data, ecologists sometimes come to opposite conclusions
Study highlights powerful role subjective choices can play in research, though some critics urge caution about applying findings too broadly
24317
Tahir Enes Gedik @tegedik.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
nautil.us/why-science-...
010
Reposted by Tahir Enes Gedik
Deniz Cem Önduygu @dencemond.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
FRESH WORK After 10 years of work on the sentence-based version of my History of Philosophy, I created an auxiliary interactive visualization, a force-directed graph with philosophers as nodes. Link: denizcemonduygu.com/philo/philos... Detailed post: www.denizcemonduygu.com/philo/new-fo...
denizcemonduygu.com
Philosophers - History of Philosophy - Summarized & Visualized
An interactive summary of the history of philosophy showing the dis/agreement relationships between ideas
2359