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Georgy Tarasenko

@tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social
1.3K followers 1K following 82 posts

PhD Student in Government at Cornell University Fellow at the Center on Global Democracy Behavioral Political Economy | Political Psychology | Authoritarian Politics HSE University & Leiden University alum 🏳️‍🌈 georgytarasenko.com

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Reposted by Georgy Tarasenko
Konstantin Bogatyrev @bogatyrev.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
As August ends and and we’re slowly getting back into things, I wanted to share a Russian election data paper we published in Scientific Data with @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social and @nikitasavin.bsky.social earlier this summer: doi.org/10.1038/s415...
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Can you hear concealed political dissent in a survey response? At #APSA2026, I’m presenting joint work with Andrey Tkachenko & Damir Sarsengaliyev using 7,324 Russian telephone interviews from the first months of the invasion of Ukraine.
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Scholars Working on East European Politics @sweep-workshop.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Our next session—and first as SWEEP—is this Friday!🌟 @bogatyrev.bsky.social presents "Military Casualties and Regime Support: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Russia," work w/ @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social, Andrey Tkachenko, & @nikitasavin.bsky.social. @ildardaminov.bsky.social discusses.
sweep-workshop.github.io
Scholars Working on East European Politics
SWEEP
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
🔔🔔 Russian polls have shown ~75% support for the war in Ukraine since February 2022, essentially flat. New working paper with Kirill Chmel and @nikitasavin.bsky.social shows that number is stable partly because it stopped measuring what people actually think. 🧵 ssrn.com/abstract=711...
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
🚨 Our (w/ @konboga and @nikitasavin today in Scientific Data: RED — Russian Electoral Data. Polling station-level results for every Russian federal election, 2000–2024: 1.04 million precinct-level records, harmonized into one open dataset. 🧵 nature.com/articles/s4159…
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
It was a genuinely great experience to be part of this project, and I’m glad the paper is finally out!
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Pam Davis-Kean, PhD @umpamdk.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
This is consistent with earlier psychometric work that suggests 5-7 is the best response scale options, but good to see that the finding holds up in contemporary research. Also, good to see that labeling scales whether anchored or not has little impact on findings. academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
academic.oup.com
Do You Agree? Do You Strongly Agree? The Effect of the Number of Response Categories on Response Processes and Verification of Substantive Hypotheses
Abstract. This study investigates how the number and labeling of response categories in survey scales affect respondent behavior, psychometric properties,
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Just back from an incredible two days at the NYU CESS Experimental Political Science conference! 🎓 Happy to share that my poster, "Do Wartime Casualties Affect Support for the Autocrat? Evidence from Russia," won the Rebecca Morton Poster Prize !
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Now posted ahead of print: "Conceptualizing Academic Freedom," forthcoming, Annual Review of Political Science. (Uncorrected proofs, so a few minor edits different from the version that will be published in June.) doi.org/10.1146/annu...
Abstract
Academic freedom is an unusual and complex set of norms and practices. It arises out of the combination of the corporate self-governance of medieval universities and the spirit of disciplinary scientific inquiry in modern research universities. It combines a principle of antiorthodoxy as to conclusions with the robust associational self-governance of scholarly communities whose members evaluate one another as participants in that shared enterprise. It has never been easily or wholly embraced by wider societies; today it is under wholesale attack. This article combines conceptual, normative, and historical analyses of academic freedom as a general norm with attention to conflicts over it in the mid-to-late 2010s and early 2020s. Some genuinely hard cases and questions tested the meaning of academic freedom and university values well before the current crisis.
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joshuaconfer.bsky.social @joshuaconfer.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Why do otherwise rational people disagree about the same evidence? Our new paper finds that group membership is a deeply rooted influence on how we form beliefs, leading even preschoolers to bias their evidential standards and form inaccurate beliefs. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 03/02/2026
🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs" We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Forthcoming in the AER: "Social Preferences over Ordinal Outcomes" by Sandro Ambuehl and B. Douglas Bernheim.
aeaweb.org
Social Preferences over Ordinal Outcomes
(Forthcoming Article) - We study social preferences in settings where someone who chooses on behalf of others knows how those individuals rank the available options but may lack cardinal information concerning those comparisons. Contrary to majoritarian principles, most people place more weight on pre- venting least-preferred outcomes for others than on enabling most-preferred outcomes. Ranks matter both intrinsically and because they provide a basis for inferring cardinal utility. Ordinal aggregation principles are stable across domains and countries with divergent political traditions. Designing attractive social choice mechanisms is challenging in practice partly because aggre- gation principles that make manipulation diffcult yield outcomes people consider normatively unappealing.
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Reposted by Georgy Tarasenko
Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🚨 Now out in Psych Science 🚨 We report an adversarial collaboration (with @donandrewmoore.bsky.social) testing whether overconfidence is genuinely a trait The paper was led by Jabin Binnendyk & Sophia Li (who is fantastic and on the job market!) Free copy here: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/7JIYS...
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
As a TA in the US, I recognize this so much. Students often feel “effort = A,” but grades are supposed to reflect expertise and outcomes. I keep wondering: what would it take to make academic work the primary signal of achievement again—above extracurriculars, sports, and everything else?
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
First instalment of my substack primer on right-wing populism in Europe is out. jacobedenhofer.substack.com/p/explaining...
jacobedenhofer.substack.com
Explaining the emergence and consolidation of right-wing populism: Part I
Stylised facts, or what has actually happened?
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Joshua Conrad Jackson @joshcjackson.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Niedenthal and Wohltjen review the varied emotional and personality adaptations to historical heterogeneity, synthesizing evidence from multiple fields www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Historical migration patterns and the evolution of culture
Cultures change, but new cultural systems and practices also emerge over history. The socio-ecological factors that exert pressure on human values and…
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Joshua Conrad Jackson @joshcjackson.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Our "Historical Psychology" special issue is now out in CRESP! www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu... Co-edited with @mohammadatari.bsky.social and featuring historical perspectives on love, racial identity, emotion expression, well-being, collectivism, religion, and more! Brief 🧵
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Vlad Surdea-Hernea @vladsurdea.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
🚨 Why do people protest against authoritarian regimes even when facing extreme danger? 🚨 In our new paper on Romania's 1989 Revolution, we find that communities exposed to the communist Gulag showed 5x higher dissent levels. doi.org/10.1177/0010... 1/🧵
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Erin Westgate @erinwestgate.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Is unconscious bias real? @davidamodio.bsky.social points out critiques (people are aware of “implicit bias”) rely on semantics. In experiments, people have biased priors, which leads to biased “learning” (noticing stereotype-consistent info)…and. They aren’t aware and can’t suppress it. #PMIG2025
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Joel Mokyr just won the Nobel — what full-circle moment for me! Back in 2018–19, my sophomore thesis on the political economy of innovation (published in 2020) cited him twice. I may study other things now, but I’m still a Mokyr reader at heart. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Economists for Ukraine @econ4ua.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
📊Working Paper No. 7: “What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict?” Survey of 2,500+ Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries: territorial integrity and security guarantees are key to return. Read: econ4ua.org/wp-content/u... Submit research: lnkd.in/gf2nQ5WC
econ4ua.org
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 02/10/2025
Just finished reading this *excellent* article by Gabriel et al. which discusses which effects can be identified in randomized controlled trials. With DAGs!> link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Elucidating some common biases in randomized controlled trials
using directed acyclic graphs

Although the ideal randomized clinical trial is the gold standard for causal inference, real randomized trials often suffer
from imperfections that may hamper causal effect estimation. Stating the estimand of interest can help reduce confusion
about what is being estimated, but it is often difficult to determine what is and is not identifiable given a trial’s specific
imperfections. We demonstrate how directed acyclic graphs can be used to elucidate the consequences of common imperfections,
such as noncompliance, unblinding, and drop-out, for the identification of the intention-to-treat effect, the total
treatment effect and the physiological treatment effect. We assert that the physiological treatment effect is not identifiable
outside a trial with perfect compliance and no dropout, where blinding is perfectly maintainedTable 1 showing the Identifiability of target estimands depending on whether there is blinding, full compliance, and no drop-outAn example DAG from the paper.
Fig. 4: A blinded trial with noncompliance.

U are unobserved confounders, Z is treatment assignment, C is compliance, X is the realized treatment, S is the subject's physical and mental health status, Xself and Xcln are the treatment that the participant and the clinician believed the participant received, Y is the outcome.
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Victor Gay @victorgayeco.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
Call for abstracts for interdisciplinary conference on "Popular Support for Autocratic Regimes in Historical Perspective," May 26-27 in Toulouse @tse-fr.eu Deadline: Nov 15. Travel/accommodation will be covered. Please apply! Co-organized with Jan Stuckatz, Selina Hofstetter, and Mikkel Dack.
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Tonight I had my very first lecture by a Nobel laureate — Claudia Goldin (‘67) at Cornell. Back when I thought of becoming an economic historian, her work was among the most important I read. And her famous blind auditions experimental study inspired my own interest in experiments.
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Reposted by Georgy Tarasenko
Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
To borrow another example, taken from the `dbreg` README: github.com/grantmcdermo... Here I am running a fixed-effects regression on 180 million(!) row parquet dataset... and it completes **< 2 seconds**... on my laptop 🤯 This is powered by @duckdb.org under the hood. #rstats #econsky
Running dbreg::dbreg() on a full year of NYC taxi data... and it takes less than 2 seconds.

dbreg(
   tip_amount ~ fare_amount + passenger_count | month + vendor_name,
   path = "read_parquet('nyc-taxi/**/*.parquet')", ## path to hive-partitioned dataset
   vcov = "hc1"
)
#> [dbreg] Estimating compression ratio...
#> [dbreg] Data has 178,544,324 rows and 24 unique FE groups.
#> [dbreg] Using strategy: compress
#> [dbreg] Executing compress strategy SQL
#> 
#> Compressed OLS estimation, Dep. Var.: tip_amount 
#> Observations.: 178,544,324 (original) | 70,782 (compressed)
#> Standard Errors: Heteroskedasticity-robust
#>                  Estimate Std. Error  t value  Pr(>|t|)    
#> fare_amount      0.106744   0.000068 1564.742 < 2.2e-16 ***
#> passenger_count -0.029086   0.000106 -273.866 < 2.2e-16 ***
#> ---
#> Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
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Harin Lee @harinlee.info · 04/06/2025
Big cities are vibrant hubs of culture, but why exactly is that? Now out in @natcomms.nature.com, we analysed music listening patterns of over 2.5 million people and demographics to examine mechanisms driving cultural diversity. With @researchdeezer.bsky.social @norijacoby.bsky.social Highlights ⬇
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Political Behavior @polbehavior.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
James Tilley & Sara Hobolt's newest publication finds that narcissistic personalities fuel affective polarization in the UK. Narcissism predicts both loyalty to in-groups and hostility to out-groups, deepening political divides. #AffectivePolarization Read more: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Narcissism and Affective Polarization - Political Behavior
There are increasing concerns about affective polarization between political groups in the US and elsewhere. While most work explaining affective polarization focuses on a combination of social and id...
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Mike Frank @mcxfrank.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Experimentology is out today!!! A group of us wrote a free online textbook for experimental methods, available at experimentology.io - the idea was to integrate open science into all aspects of the experimental workflow from planning to design, analysis, and writing.
Experimentology cover: title and curves for distributions.
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Had a great time at my first #PolMeth conference! Grateful for the chance to visit Emory and Atlanta, meet brilliant folks, and share some work-in-progress “Using AI to Explain Classifiers: A Framework and Application to Text-Based Experimental Outcomes.”
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Reposted by Georgy Tarasenko
Lusine Grigoryan @grigolus.bsky.social · 10/11/2024
Bsky has a thread composer now. To celebrate, here is a thread about our recent paper on antiwar attitudes and actions in Russia. In August 2022, we asked ~1000 Russians about their feelings regarding the war in Ukraine and whether they did or planned to do anything to oppose it. #polpsy #socialpsyc
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Photo evidence that #EPSA2025 went more than well! Thanks to Madrid and to @epssnet.bsky.social
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Gefjon Off @gefjonoff.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Our Element is out! 🎉 Why do authoritarian-leaning leaders target women’s and LGBTQ+ rights? Is there a systematic pattern that reaches beyond individual country cases, and how is this reflected in people’s attitudes and societal norms? www.cambridge.org/core/element...
cambridge.org
Attitudes toward Political Authoritarianism in Economically Advanced Democracies
Cambridge Core - Politics: General Interest - Attitudes toward Political Authoritarianism in Economically Advanced Democracies
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Nathan Goodman @nathanpgoodman.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Vincent Ostrom argued that both the Soviet Union & the American state masked imperialist dynamics with rhetoric of freedom. Moreover, he argued against relying on notions of state sovereignty, arguing that instead we should build relations of self-governance.
Cryptoimperialism is a theory for creating cryptoempires, hidden empires in which the control apparatus is concealed by a veil of secrecy behind rhetoric about "freedom" and "liberation." The other formula was worked out by V.I. Lenin. The success of Lenin's revolutionary efforts marked the end of Imperial Russia and created the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and its association with other socialist states governed in accordance with Marxist-Leninist principles. Lenin's approach to revolutionary struggles for liberation yields a form of cryptoimperialism analogous to Copeland's. The crises associated with cryptoimperialism are also reflected in the ideology used to organize the new nations of the Third World. In the second part of this essay, I use the theory of sovereignty to demonstrate how sovereign states are likely to become predatory states. Wherever liberation efforts draw upon concepts of state-building and state-to-state relationships as the keys to development in the 3rd World, we can expect extraordinary opportunities to exist for a few to exploit the many. We can begin to understand some of the sources of human tragedy--crises--in the contemporary world. In continuing this anlysis, I suggest that alternatives may be made available by drawing upon principles of self-governance. Understanding those alternatives depends upon a much fuller elaboration of the terms upon which alternatives are available in the constitution of human societies. Such an approach requires as much attention to the role of infrastructures in the fashioning of human societies as to that of the superstructures reflected in institutions of national governments.
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John Drury @profjohndrury.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
I'm revising my undergraduate module on 'Psychology of Crowd Behaviour', including a new topic on 'Crowds & Leadership'. The new reading list includes the following. Essential reading: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Examining the role of Donald Trump and his supporters in the 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol: A dual-agency model of identity leadership and engaged followership
This article develops a dual-agency model of leadership which treats collective phenomena as a co-production involving both leaders and followers who …
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
New study by @matthewcebul.bsky.social & J. Pinckney asks “How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups?” Surveys across 30+ countries find “alternative resistance options consistently reduce support for armed rebellion…” journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Nonviolent alternatives reduce external support for rebel groups: Evidence from two cross-national survey experiments - Matthew Cebul, Jonathan Pinckney, 2025
How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? Armed rebellions are often sustained by outside sympathy and support, whic...
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
🎉 Thrilled to be at my first EPSA in beautiful Madrid —and to be busy in the best way! I’ll be: 🔹 Chairing and presenting at the panel "PUBOPI – Personality and Emotions" 🗓️ Sat, 28 June | ⏰ 09:30–11:10 | 📍 Room 1A.13
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
100% yes, at least as long as Europe will not normalize having ACs
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Josh Kalla @jkalla.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Want to add an LLM chatbot to your Qualtrics surveys? Here's a step-by-step guide showing exactly how to do this with AWS Bedrock joshuakalla.github.io/llm_persuasi...
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
From a political psychology perspective, what astonishes me about U.S. political culture is how deeply allergic people across the spectrum are to engaging with positions — and facts — that challenge their political imagination.
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Mike Frank @mcxfrank.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
If you haven't been looking recently at the Open Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science (oecs.mit.edu), here's your reminder that we are a free, open access resource for learning about the science of mind. Today we are launching our new Thematic Collections to organize our growing set of articles!
OECS thematic collections.
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Laura K. Nelson @lauraknelson.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
Attn: the special issue of SMR on Generative AI in Sociology is now online. The whole issue is fire, but the introduction by @thomasdavidson.bsky.social and Danny Karell is a must read, covering prompting, measurement, and simulations. It's a road map for soc sci research in the genAI era. +
journals.sagepub.com
Integrating Generative Artificial Intelligence into Social Science Research: Measurement, Prompting, and Simulation - Thomas Davidson, Daniel Karell, 2025
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) offers new capabilities for analyzing data, creating synthetic media, and simulating realistic social interactions. This...
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
Effective non-democracies, for sure, challenge democratic legitimacy. While effective public services provision isn’t inherently a feature of democracy, democracies historically held an edge here—and that success helped people embrace and internalize democratic values.
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
À mes contacts francophones sur Bluesky: Quelqu’un aurait-il un moyen plus direct de contacter la rédaction du Monde (@lemonde-en.bsky.social) que l’adresse mail officielle? J’ai une question sur les données utilisées dans cette enquête, pour un projet de recherche. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
lemonde.fr
Guerre en Ukraine : enquête sur l’ampleur des pertes russes
Depuis le début du conflit, aucun bilan humain n’a été communiqué par Moscou. Un déserteur de l’armée russe, ancien informaticien et brancardier en Ukraine, a livré au « Monde » des données sur les bl...
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
I think it’s the perfect time for European, Canadian, and Mexican universities to establish systematic programs allowing international undergraduates from the US to finish the degree. As for PhD students, I’d like to see more visiting positions with a minimal stipend sufficient for survival.
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Journal of Peace Research @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
In this research note, Kit Rickard (@ethzurich.bsky.social), @critgeopolitics.bsky.social, @kristinmbakke.bsky.social and John O'Loughlin (@colorado.edu) highlight the pitfalls of wartime polling, drawing on lessons from panel surveys in Ukraine before and after Russia's 2022 invasion.
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Prashant Garg @prashantgarg.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
I’ve open‑sourced all content from my talk Retrieving  &  Generating Data with LLMs in Python on my Github, along with slides. 🔓 10 Jupyter notebooks that show how to turn messy text into clean, structured data, all with GPT‑4o‑mini & the OpenAI API. Details on applications below🧵
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PNAS Nexus @pnasnexus.org · 12/05/2025
A study of 22 rural communities in Poland looks at how female friendships influence women’s decisions about how many children to have. Educated women with more emotionally supportive friends outside their kin networks have fewer children. In PNAS Nexus: academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Description of agreement with fertility values. (a) Summary of agreement rates with the value statements for all women, and total completed fertility for post-reproductive women who agreed/disagreed. (b) Posterior predicted probability of agreement with each of the 7 value statements, as a function of the responder’s education.
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Alessandro Nai @alessandronai.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Nice piece on our article on affective polarisation and the dark personality of leaders, w @kgattermann.bsky.social @fredericofs.bsky.social Diego Garzia, Loes Aaldering TLDR: dark traits of in-party leaders associated with higher affective polarisation in their (closest) followers
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Sabrina Karim @sabrinamkarim.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Today, I received a termination for my National Science Foundation CAREER Grant, which employed a post-doc and many undergraduate research assistants.
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Georgy Tarasenko @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
Are there people here who transitioned to using Julia after working with STATA or R? If so, what has your experience been like? I understand that Julia isn’t yet a full-fledged replacement for STATA or R, but have you found specific types of tasks where Julia provides significant marginal utility?
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