Sign in

Matthew Cebul

@matthewcebul.bsky.social
2.3K followers 833 following 280 posts

Political scientist studying civil resistance, democratic erosion, and US foreign policy in MENA. Lead Research Fellow at HKS Nonviolent Action Lab; formerly USIP. Manservant to Korra the cat. Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."

PostsRepliesMedia
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Just caught this fascinating short piece in @jodemocracy.bsky.social today on the strengths and weaknesses of "leaderless" movement organizing in Kenya, with nuanced reflections from protest organizers www.journalofdemocracy.org/the-frontlin...
journalofdemocracy.org
What “Leaderless” Actually Means | Journal of Democracy
Gen Z protests are about more than a generation. Uprisings like the one we helped lead in Kenya are rewriting how movements organize, and how states fight back.
162
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
John Roberts: terrible chief justice, would be the most popular HOA president of all time
130
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
We would all be a lot better off if the marcho hardliners in the Trump administration had spent 15 seconds thinking about how *they* would act in Iran's shoes, facing down a hostile yet irresolute enemy that remains highly sensitive to casualties and oil prices and that also has elections this fall
000
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
This is what it looks like when someone -- in this case, an entire cadre of journalism "professionals" -- utterly abandons even the pretense of self-respect. Clapping like seals for table scraps. What an embarrassment.
021
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Gordon Gray @ambgordongray.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
@sharangrewal.bsky.social observes that "Saied’s populist allegations about conspiracies, corrupt elites, and foreign plots ring increasingly hollow when the faucets run dry and the air conditioning goes out" and asks if today's crisis becomes a democratic opening. www.brookings.edu/articles/tun...
brookings.edu
Tunisia’s summer of discontent | Brookings
Water and electricity shortages during a record-hot summer in Tunisia are producing growing discontent with President Saied's rule.
033
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/08/2026
Incredible. When E—n M—k & his crew obliterated USAID in a weekend, they deleted a vast trove of publicly-funded knowledge: the Development Experience Clearinghouse. A Canadian high school student (!) happened to have downloaded the entire thing for a project. AidData has now posted it for all.
aiddata.org
Before reimagining development data, remember what we’ve learned
Why we’re publishing a free, searchable, and ungated archive featuring a quarter-century of USAID evaluation reports.
374432809
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Ok, "The Board of Peace is about Trump getting a PIECE of the Middle East" is, unfortunately, a great line
000
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Now that this piece has been out for a few days, I want to offer a few more reflections on the tension between pursuing accountability for anti-democratic violations and pursuing defections from the illiberal MAGA coalition. 1/
120
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Today for @jodemocracy.bsky.social, I lay out the tension between anti-corruption accountability politics (of which I am a huge fan!) and big-tent democracy coalition building. The dilemma: it's hard to convince regime fence sitters to jump ship if they expect punishment under restored democracy.
054
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Calling for accountability against corrupt officials is a powerful message for building a movement. But it can make it harder to encourage defections from your opponent’s camp. Here’s how to handle the dilemma.
journalofdemocracy.org
Why Anticorruption Campaigns Aren’t a Silver Bullet | Journal of Democracy
Calling for accountability against corrupt officials is a powerful message for building a movement. But it can make it harder to encourage defections from your opponent’s camp. Here’s how to handle…
043
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Jacqueline L. Hazelton @drjlhazelton.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Valuable piece from @reidpauly.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social @mitpress.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social Why the US struggles to coerce Iran.
goodauthority.org
Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran
The limits of U.S. coercion are evident in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Understanding how coercion works can help explain why this is so challenging.
138
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Just listened to an excellent Civic Forum episode on the future of Hungarian democracy. Lots of lessons here for the U.S. democracy movement! cc @rorytruex.bsky.social
rorytruex.substack.com
After Orban: Lessons from Hungary On Democratic Healing
Civic Forum interview on how the Hungarian people toppled the Orban regime, and what Americans can learn
110
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
The optimistic way to read this is that Democrats have a ton of ground to gain if they actually make demonstrable, genuine commitments, as a party, to root out corruption and pass anti corruption legislation.
010
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The Quiet (Haters) Car
021
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Sharan Grewal @sharangrewal.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
👀 see you in October: The Rise and Fall of Tunisian Democracy, Cambridge University Press Grateful for the endorsements from Professors Melani Cammett and Milan Svolik and Prime Minister Youssef Chahed. Coming soon to a library near you! www.cambridge.org/core/books/r...
2205
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
More than 500 scholars agree: "We write to urge Congress to do what most democracies have already done: adopt proportional representation." proud to be among them. medium.com/@scholars-re...
medium.com
Letter to Congress: End the Redistricting Wars by Adopting Proportional Representation
Gerrymandering persists because single-member districts allow it.
615765
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
lmfao
010
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
McSweeney's @mcsweeneys.net · 22/07/2026
"When España beat Argentina in the Copa Mundial final, I worked up the coraje to invitar Pilar to Cold Stone Creamery, which is how we celebrar importantes eventos in Connecticut."
buff.ly
I Watched the Copa Mundial Non-Stop on Telemundo for Cinco Weeks and Now I Don’t Hablar Inglés Anymore
“Hola, Chad aquí, de Greenwich, Connecticut, a muy blanco área of los Estados Unidos. A few weeks ago, I decidir to watch Estados Unidos vs. Paraguay in fútb...
56611
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Turns out soccer is a great sport when everyone agrees that fouling is strictly prohibited
131
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
4-0 before the half, lmfao
030
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Somebody is eventually going to write a banger dissertation on personal animosity + grudges in IR in the Trump era -- I'd bet that declassified diplomatic comms, personal memoirs, etc. will be full of examples of world leaders finding funny ways to get back at Trump for his ham-fisted bullying
031
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Today in @foreignaffairs.com, @reidpauly.bsky.social and I reflect on why Trump’s belligerent approach to coercion so often fails, and what it will take to repair the damage that Trump is inflicting on U.S. statecraft:
foreignaffairs.com
The Lost Art of Coercion
Why Trump’s belligerence is a sign of weakness.
36025
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
England getting what it deserves — you can’t just decide to quit playing offense for half of the game and expect to win against a good team.
020
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Ha. Ha. Ha.
000
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Yeah, ok, that was a good goal
000
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
This is gonna get called back on account of Haaland shoving his man back into the Stone Age
000
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
After years of saving it for another day, I just finished @joeabercrombie.com's First Law series. Never has a story so unholy, so thoroughly and viciously miserable, been so perfectly conceived. It's a revolting train wreck that you just gape at for three books, awestruck. What a brilliant writer.
100
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Morocco largely dominated the Netherlands and are a very good team, but France has them in complete lockdown. Essentially zero looks, while France generates offense at will. Beating them this year is going to take something very special.
000
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Mbappe, boy I dunno
010
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
"My binificence" 😂
010
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
After last night's Mexico England throwdown, watching Spain squeak by Portugal was....uninspiring
100
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Presumably the golf tournament will be held at a Trump property
031
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
WHAT IS GOING ON IN MEXICO
110
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
VAR STRIKES AGAIN
000
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Unbelievable from Haaland there
020
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
I’ve seen enough, Cabo Verde beats Argentina 2-3
051
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
I missed the first 90 minutes of Argentina Cabo Verde, lets just check the sco LOL WUT GOAL GOAL GOAL
020
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Dem politicians should have some faith that voters will hear Mamdani's dogged patriotism -- "We're far from perfect, but we're not done, either, and we're sure as hell not going anywhere" -- and identify more with it than anything the nativist GOP has to offer.
020
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Croatia gets hosed by VAR, Ronaldo gets hosed by VAR, everyone gets hosed by VAR!
130
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
We are a genuinely respectable team now, and it's awesome. I think we could beat Spain on a strong day -- they are far from imperious this year. Teams like France, Argentina, and Morocco are still clearly a cut above us, but US men's soccer is clearly moving in the right direction.
050
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Yikes
000
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Sick goal from Congo catches England asleep at the wheel -- buckle up, folks
030
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Wild applause
010
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Democracy scholars: you've got one more week to get proposals in for our "Guarding the Guardrails" convening this fall!
020
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
For the D&D fans out there, Vox Machina S4 E5 ("De Rolo's Eleven") is perfection. The best episode of the series, it's just a wonderfully funny encapsulation of D&D buffoonery. It's a shame that the Oscars don't have an exclusive voice acting award, because Travis/Grog absolutely deserves one.
020
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
static.klipy.com
Star Demands More!
ALT: Star Demands More!
061
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Do you study institutional resilience to democratic erosion? We want to hear from you! Check out our Call for Proposals for an upcoming scholar-practitioner convening on “Guarding the Guardrails of Democracy.” The submission portal is open through June 30. Please apply, and spread widely!
drive.google.com
Guardrails_CFP_Final.pdf
021
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
He’s right — Bezos pays barely any taxes at all right now, so doubling them won’t do much. We’ll need to increase them by at least an order of magnitude.
411229212
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Trump has somehow managed to achieve perfect coercion kryptonite: non-credible coercive threats today AND ALSO non-credible assurances against further coercion tomorrow. This is going to go down as the most inept attempt at militarized coercion in American history.
032