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Steve Cicala

@stevecicala.bsky.social
12K followers 657 following 1.5K posts

Vontobel Foundation Professor of Sustainable Economics University of Zurich Tufts University (on leave) www.stevecicala.com goingelectric.substack.com

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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 14m
Very curious to know which Western powers apologized for anything in the postwar period, and which of those apologies he would like to reverse.
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VAW Glaciology @vaw-glaciology.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Switzerland's glacier report 2026 is out. Swiss glaciers have lost 5% of their ice volume this year. Only the last 5 years accounted for nearly 20% of the total ice loss across Switzerland. The numbers are devastating. Full report → doi.glamos.ch/pubs/annualr...
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Not that I think car companies are dumb enough to make long-term investments based on the whims of this executive, but… Stimulating gasoline demand with weaker fuel economy standards is not going to help lower prices.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Deterrence is the only instrument at our disposal. The sooner Democrats learn to use it, the less damage there will be.
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Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
We must “recognize the evil that is being carried out in our name and fight it…We must recognize that in abandoning the words of Deuteronomy and the Statue of Liberty, we are losing our soul as a nation.” — Cardinal Robert McElroy, archbishop of Washington open.substack.com/pub/lettersf...
open.substack.com
On Pope Leo’s World Day of Migrants, Cardinal McElroy Indicts Trump’s War on Immigrants
Preaching on the Good Samaritan for World Day of Migrants, Washington’s archbishop named Minneapolis, a five-year-old used as bait, and a nation that “passed on by.” He told Catholics to fight every d...
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Scott Imberman @imbernomics.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Reporters need to presss the networks that accept the ad and ask if they risk being considered accomplices in a fraud against the United States in the eventual prosecutions.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Paging Covert and Kellogg.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Even if you have zero concern for climate change, it is malpractice as a policymaker to do anything but run as far and fast as you can from a fossil fuel-based economy. Why would you leave yourself so exposed to this madness given the alternatives? www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
wsj.com
Trump’s Talk of Banning Diesel Exports Adds to Europe’s Energy Pain
Europe was already facing an energy crunch. Then President Trump spoke up about banning U.S. diesel exports, and the continent’s problems got worse. ICE gasoil futures, used as a benchmark for diesel ...
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King Algamemnon @adamrothman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Two arms marked China and Hegseth clasp over a caption that says "Examining the U.S. military's sensitive parts"
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The Donkey Sanctuary and Royal Opera House are well-known aliases for Parliament, so I find this mathematically impossible.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Let us not forget the real victims when a rogue wet lab releases a deadly pathogen: The staff who conceived, designed, built, and operated the lab. The whole thing really bummed them out.
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Sam Ori @samori8.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Ah yes. The widely heralded economic policies of “presidents in the 70s.”
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Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Witkoff is even more inept than we thought. A good examination of the role of the White House front man for US efforts to end the war in Ukraine from the @KyivIndependent kyivindependent.com/exclusive-uk...
kyivindependent.com
Exclusive: Ukraine, Russia are done with Steve Witkoff. Trump sees no problem
Kyiv and Moscow are growing increasingly frustrated with the U.S.-mediated peace process — and with Washington's Envoy Steve Witkoff, people familiar with the matter told the Kyiv Independent. Witkof...
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This, but also for the US.
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The Economist @economist.com · 17/09/2026
“If the inheritocracy looms, it has clearly not yet arrived,” argue Eric Zwick and Owen Zidar. The university professors believe that the narrative surrounding the bequest of financial assets is flawed bit.ly/4rzWfD3 Illustration: Dan Williams
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
"Overbuilding" suggests tearing up a one lane road and building a 4 lane highway when 2 would do. Gold-plating a new, 1 lane road spends precious resources and guarantees that right of way won't be used to build the highway needed to import cheap power from elsewhere.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This was great, particularly the end. Without accusing @janeaflegal.bsky.social of being a “utility bro” I think there’s an important difference between utilities over-building and dumb-building. Replacing amortized capital with the same equipment isn’t over-building. I think that’s widespread.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Next up: supporters of the Copernican system. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
IMF ditched top candidate for chief economist job over Trump tariff remarks
LSE professor Ricardo Reis had said the US president’s trade war would hurt American consumers
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Stan Veuger @stanveuger.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I organized an economist amicus brief in support of affirmance of the Court of International Trade's ruling in Oregon v. Trump and Burlap and Barrel v. Donald J. Trump that the administration exceeded its authority when it imposed 10% worldwide tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
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Fischer 🛠️🚇 @fischer.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
breaking: XAI announces that they have used an unreleased grok model to solve a major open problem in the field of race science
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I suspect the protectionism angle here is hiding something more sinister: Allied, foreign governments are more oriented toward testing and regulating model capabilities. Export restrictions are just a convenience for keeping the more harrowing features hidden. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Anthropic withheld latest AI model from UK testing agency
Decision to exclude Aisi has prompted fears inside British government of protectionist shift among tech groups
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
I Study Projects that Select on the Dependent Variable. They Have One Habit in Common.
nytimes.com
Opinion | I Study Successful People. They Have One Habit in Common.
Being a successful self-starter doesn’t mean pulling yourself up by your bootstraps.
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Patton Oswalt @pattonoswalt.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Apparently people are sharing this far and wide on social media, which I think is horrible. This could cripple ICE operations. PLEASE do not share this.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
They’re just not that into you.
“That’s how we interpret it . . . based on my conversations with the UK, where I say, ‘Hey, you’re free of the EU. Why don’t you liberalise a little bit, accept goods made to American standards, accept agricultural goods made to American standards?’” Greer said.

“And they say, ‘Well, we have to wait and see what the EU says about it’. You know that is a problem for us and that’s challenging.”
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Worse is that they lack any notion of opportunity cost. They're in a market with prices pushing $1000/sq ft, and what they build is a D3 baseball field used 2hr/day. 🙈 They don't even need to know what transit is for--they just need to hear a whisper of what the market is screaming at them.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
My Tufts colleagues have heard me rant about this too many times, but the first new stop on the Boston system in 30 years landed in the University’s lap and the first thing they did was…expand the athletic fields immediately next to it. Just madness.
A T stop surrounded by athletic fields.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
It's as if the 8th amendment does not exist.
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Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Now, in response to alerts from the UN's #Methane Alert and Response System, Turkmenistan has started plugging the leaks There's much more to do, but it's an "incredible first step" The 2nd biggest mega-leaker, the US, is doing nothing @unep.org 3/3 www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
‘Breakthrough’ as Turkmenistan starts fixing ‘mindboggling’ methane mega-leaks
Secretive state begins repairs on ageing facilities after being revealed as worst country for leaks of potent greenhouse gas
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
What are acceptable parameters that prevent action for a conspiracy whose raison d’etre was covering up having broken the rules? Agents went on suicide missions bc they believed they had disqualified themselves—but we think they’ll still stay within parameters?
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Is it just luck that they didn’t think of blackmail? I don’t know enough about the engineering of the banking system to know whether to worry or not, but, uh, this is totally out of control.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Holy smokes. The agents figured out a cheat to solve a hacking puzzle. To win, they needed to cover their tracks. Agents learned to coordinate using package managers. Hacked into a company and ultimately took over their OpenAI server. www.dwarkesh.com/p/openai-hug...
dwarkesh.com
The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations
The whole OpenAI/Hugging Face story in plain English
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
An export tax on oil and gas would be an exquisite response to the US taxing imports from Canada. Have fun explaining why tariffs are good, but export taxes are bad!
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 28/08/2026
The human beings in chains shown in this photograph were living and working legally in the United States, contributing to US firms and communities and public coffers and churches, until the US Administration decided to *revoke* their legal status—due to no action of theirs.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I really can’t wait for Google’s explanation for why they caved to Trump’s insanity on Mexico, but won’t change Lake Ontario’s name.
Gulf of America
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 27/08/2026
Did I miss the big open letter signed by a hundred academics opposing this?
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Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 25/08/2026
I’ve lost track of the number of times an immigrant has told me they had to sit on a prison bus in the back of an airport for six, 10, 20 hours with no food or water and being told to urinate in a corner or onto themselves.
A screenshot of a White House tweet styled after The Magic School Bus cartoon but this one says “The Magic Deportation Bus” and shows shackled brown men in the back. The White House account says “Please let this be a normal field trip…” One put gray text over the whole thing that says “FASCIST PROPAGANDA.”
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Lindsay Beyerstein @beyerstein.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Holy shit. No wonder Carney told the US to pound sand.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Broken in already!
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
It would really highlight how nonsensical the Trump view of trade is, raise revenues for the Canadian government, minimize losses for their businesses, and maximize price increases for US consumers. You want tariffs on Canadian goods? No problem, we'll do that for you.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
A great speech by the leader of the free world. The US 'signature was written in pencil' is a great line. It would make MAGA heads spin by responding with export tariffs on goods with inelastic import demand elasticities. www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-Wg...
youtube.com
FULL SPEECH | Carney explains why Canada suspended trade talks with U.S.
YouTube video by CBC News
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Colette Delawalla, PhD @cdelawalla.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Let’s call this what it is: an atrocious betrayal of people who risked their lives to help Americans.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
This is great. Reinforces my belief that a modern manufacturing process for transformers would be extremely lucrative and consequential. Look at this. You’re telling me that’s the best way to build? C’mon now. Your customers must make money by spending money…
I swear to god they wrap paper around wires the same way they did 100 years ago.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
This outcomes was entirely predicted. The UK will now either continue to pay to pretend prices don’t exist, or pay for the transmission needed so that a uniform price actually prevails. The latter will accommodate substantial power generation growth.
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Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
A great article by the always-excllent @mattbarnum.bsky.social about my new study with @zbleemer.bsky.social on the "meritocratic consensus" in higher education: www.chalkbeat.org/2026/08/18/s...
chalkbeat.org
How American higher education helps the rich get richer
Higher education’s admissions hierarchy is also a spending hierarchy. The students who arrive with the most advantages often receive the most resources.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
www.nber.org/technology-s...
nber.org
Stata Installation & License Update Instructions
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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
🙌 A victory in the campaign against junk fees, a key contributor to SIEPR Director @nealemahoney.bsky.social and others are calling the "annoyance economy." ⬇️
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
A lot more power.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
For all of the CapEx focus, these jokers are committing themselves to spending ~$250M per month on gas alone. (10 GW * 11k MMBTU/MWh * $3/MMBTU) At January's gas price, it's $600M/mo. This mania will very quickly run into the economics of power generation.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
These generators are those yellow and brown dots on the far left of this graph: The most expensive generators to run, only used at peak demand. The idea of running a massive electricity-consuming plant around the clock on these things is as insane as racing on the autobahn in first gear.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=7590
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Life’s pretty good when your rule is, “If I have to ask myself whether I should block this person, the answer is yes.”
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