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Steve Cicala

@stevecicala.bsky.social
12K followers 657 following 1.5K posts

Vontobel Foundation Professor of Sustainable Economics University of Zurich Tufts University (on leave) www.stevecicala.com goingelectric.substack.com

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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
From Annie Jacobsen:
BREAKING: Plague outbreak expands, Russia BSL-3 lab accident - FIVE hospitals now quarantined🚨☣️

The plague outbreak in Siberia, Russia has expanded w/5 hospitals now under QUARANTINE: Irkutsk Hospitals No. 1, No.3, No.10, Ivano-Matreninskaya Children's Hospital, and an unnamed maternity hospital (Lyudi Baikala news, Moscow Times).

Quarantine is NOT voluntary. Even in the U.S., quarantine is among the most extraordinary measures  gov't can impose on American citizens who haven't been convicted, or even accused, of committing a crime. Quarantine means being forcibly confined and medically examined by law. U.S. quarantine can be imposed on anyone infected by a legally quarantinable disease listed below (this can change). One should assume Russia's quarantine protocols are even more severe. As of 2026, under Executive Order 14047, legally quarantinable diseases in the U.S. are:
■ Plague
■ Smallpox
■ Viral hemorrhagic fevers
■ Cholera
■ Diphtheria
■ Yellow fever
■ Infectious tuberculosis
■ Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
■ Flu that can cause a pandemic
■ Measles
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Paging Covert and Kellogg.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
They’re just not that into you.
“That’s how we interpret it . . . based on my conversations with the UK, where I say, ‘Hey, you’re free of the EU. Why don’t you liberalise a little bit, accept goods made to American standards, accept agricultural goods made to American standards?’” Greer said.

“And they say, ‘Well, we have to wait and see what the EU says about it’. You know that is a problem for us and that’s challenging.”
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
My Tufts colleagues have heard me rant about this too many times, but the first new stop on the Boston system in 30 years landed in the University’s lap and the first thing they did was…expand the athletic fields immediately next to it. Just madness.
A T stop surrounded by athletic fields.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I really can’t wait for Google’s explanation for why they caved to Trump’s insanity on Mexico, but won’t change Lake Ontario’s name.
Gulf of America
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
This is great. Reinforces my belief that a modern manufacturing process for transformers would be extremely lucrative and consequential. Look at this. You’re telling me that’s the best way to build? C’mon now. Your customers must make money by spending money…
I swear to god they wrap paper around wires the same way they did 100 years ago.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
These generators are those yellow and brown dots on the far left of this graph: The most expensive generators to run, only used at peak demand. The idea of running a massive electricity-consuming plant around the clock on these things is as insane as racing on the autobahn in first gear.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=7590
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Note the Robert Moses legacy persists to this day: overpasses specifically designed to be too low for buses or a median-line train. I also liked the 1950’s natural field experiment description, often credited as a more recent innovation.
1941/2026 slider picture of an overpass at the same height.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Great job everyone.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
PM at 256 for the 250th.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Just received a spammy emailing licking Trump’s boots from the U.S. Social Security Administration and I swear someone broke a law somewhere with SSA data just to stroke Dear Leader’s ego.
This weekend, America celebrates its 250th birthday. For over 90 of those years, Social Security has provided financial freedom for America's seniors. President Donald J. Trump and the Trump Administration are not only protecting Social Security, but we are providing meaningful and immediate relief to older Americans who have spent decades contributing to our nation's economy.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Chris Rufo, your ancestors were Italian for the love of furbizia. The Klein interview was a series of near pin-downs, moving on to a new topic before ever forcing Rufo to tap out.
And because there has been a weak central government — a contested central government in Somalia in the modern period — there is a feeling that exploiting the central government is permissible. And the underlying point, which is very uncomfortable, not just for people who are small-L liberals, but even for many conservatives, is that, actually, all national cultures are not equal.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
I think the front page of ESPN advertising the spread, sponsored by the bookie is probably bad for sport.
ESPN screen shot.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Microsoft chooses violence by default:
reply all by default
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
As much as I admire your work, this is not correct. There's good reason to doubt the efficacy of many EE programs. This has been true since Joskow v. Lovins. And by recovering those costs on energy bills, it definitely discourages electrification.
There must be a pony!
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Ominous.
Dear Dr. Cicala,

We have created an account for you in the manuscript tracking system of...
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
$1M a ship isn't cool. You know what's cool?
Opening and closing the straight after taking a market position.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Even Gene Fama is calling it a bubble.
In the past, I think you have been quoted as saying that you don’t even believe in the possibility of bubbles.

I never said that. I want people to use the term in a consistent way. For example, I didn’t renew my subscription to The Economist because they use the world bubble three times on every page. Any time prices went up and down—I guess that is what they call a bubble. People have become entirely sloppy. People have jumped on the bandwagon of blaming financial markets. I can tell a story very easily in which the financial markets were a casualty of the recession, not a cause of it.

That’s your view, correct?

Yeah.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
WTF
Trump Account Election
Select if you want to open a Trump account for eligible children so they can receive any contributions available to them.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
$1M per ship -> $1.8B every two weeks. (Likely paid in ¥, to further sanction-proof Iran & strengthen China)
Drake meme
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Yes, I’m sure it was the backlash that was pivotal.
Cocoa price go down.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
This excellent post makes it clear how mind-boggling this situation is, and how poorly it is being covered. Our press has fallen back on Presidential stenography as its primary function. no01.substack.com/p/march-19-2...
The logic, insofar as there is any, goes like this: the war has crashed the global oil market so hard that the administration needs the enemy’s oil to keep gasoline prices from eating the midterms. They are unsanctioning the people they’re bombing because the bombing is working too well at the thing they didn’t want it to do. The sanctions were necessary to stop Iran funding the war, but the war made the sanctions too effective, so the sanctions had to be lifted to fund the war effort against the country that no longer needs sanctions because the oil revenues that sanctions were preventing are now required to prevent the economic damage caused by preventing those revenues, which is itself a consequence of the military campaign designed to make the sanctions unnecessary by making Iran the kind of country that doesn’t need sanctioning, which it would be, if the sanctions hadn’t been lifted to pay for making it that.This sequence of statements was delivered, as far as the public record shows, by the same person, using the same mouth, within roughly 24 hours. The allies are cowards for not helping with the thing he doesn’t need, which is why he’s sending Marines to die for it, unless the countries that do need it do it themselves, which they won’t, because they’re cowards.

Trump told reporters the strait could be opened with a “simple military maneuver” that is “relatively safe” but requires “a lot of help”. Help. From the cowards. Who he doesn’t need. For the strait. That he also doesn’t need.Friday’s press gaggle. Barely exaggerated: at 12:03 PM, President Trump told reporters he wanted a ceasefire with Iran. At 12:05 he declared victory. At 12:07 he announced he was sending Marines. At 12:08 he said no boots on the ground. At 12:11 he said he did not want a ceasefire. At 12:16 he declared victory again. At 12:17 he asked for a ceasefire. At 12:23 he told NATO they were cowards. At 12:29 he said Iran was begging for a ceasefire. At 12:31 he said everything was perfect. At 12:36 he said $500 oil was a good thing. At 12:37 he demanded Iran open Hormuz. At 12:39 he said Hormuz was never closed. At 12:41 he said the US was not at war with Iran. At 12:42 he declared victory in Iran.

By 3:43 PM he told CBS he doesn’t want a ceasefire. By 5:13 PM - 13 minutes after futures markets closed for the weekend, in a coincidence that should be studied in every securities fraud textbook - he posted on Truth Social that the US is “getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts”. The S&P reversed more than 1% in seconds. QQQ had already surged 1.1% in the 80 minutes before the announcement, with call options flowing in at a pace that suggests someone, somewhere, had an itinerary.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Like this?
Biden "I did that" sticker on gas pump.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Here's the (chatGPT-extracted & compiled) plot of "Total Bad" vs support for that country's right-wing party. Raw data in the alt-txt.
country,share_right,total_bad,bloc_parties,source_basis
US,45,53,Republican Party,2025–26 generic ballot polling
Turkey,44,49,AKP + MHP,2025 polling averages
Brazil,33,48,Bolsonaro-aligned right parties (PL bloc),2025 polling averages
Greece,15,44,Greek Solution + Spartans + Niki,2025 polling
France,39,43,National Rally + Reconquete,2026 polling trend
Italy,40,40,Brothers of Italy + Lega,2025 polling
South Africa,6,36,Freedom Front Plus + Patriotic Alliance,2024 election baseline
Hungary,48,31,Fidesz + Our Homeland,2025 polling averages
Argentina,38,29,La Libertad Avanza,2025 polling
Poland,41,28,PiS + Confederation,2025 polling
Spain,14,28,Vox,2025 polling
Israel,34,27,Likud + Religious Zionism + Otzma Yehudit,2025 polling averages
Germany,25,27,AfD,2026 polling
South Korea,37,22,People Power Party,2025 polling
Netherlands,24,19,PVV + Forum for Democracy + JA21,2025 polling
UK,31,17,Reform UK,2026 polling
Mexico,20,17,PAN,2025 polling
Japan,8,16,Sanseito + nationalist minor parties,2025 polling
Australia,7,14,One Nation + United Australia Party,2025 polling
Sweden,21,12,Sweden Democrats,2025 polling
India,40,9,BJP,2024–25 polling
Indonesia,14,8,Gerindra,2025 polling
Canada,5,7,People's Party of Canada,2025 polling
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
The markets are not "muted" in response to tariffs--they've already priced much of it in: - Prediction markets fell 25% after oral arguments. - The firms hardest hit by tariff announcement largely recovered after arguments. - Looking forward, new tariffs are anticipated.
kalshi market crashes after oral arguments
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
🚨 Call for Papers: 🚨 The 5th NBER Regulation Conference will be in Cambridge on April 24, 2026. This is a great opportunity to talk to people in different fields about shared regulatory issues! Submissions are due Feb 10. conference.nber.org/confsubmit/b...
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
The administration's survival demands an ever-escalating series of scandals to prevent accountability itself from becoming the story. Does anyone think this is going to level off or settle down for the next 3 years? There's just no way this lasts until 2029.
A figure depicting a steady march toward global catastrophe.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
It's a mug's game to take the administration's claims at face value and attempt to negotiate on those terms in good faith. It embodies weakness. This has nothing to do with cost-sharing (or security for that matter), and everything to do with ego-stroking by planting flags on maps.

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	They should emphasise that existing agreements already give the US every right to beef up security or mine Greenland’s minerals. But, as they have done with Nato more broadly, they should offer to bear more of the cost and logistical burden of bolstering security in Greenland and the Arctic.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
11 out of 15 papers in the last issue just completely erased the contribution of authors! But at least they share the formatting editor of NBER Working papers. What’s that tab indent? How about another for no reason! Just keeping you in your toes, freestyling in the table of contents.
QJE vol 140 issue 4
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Witkoff sounds a lot like Harry Ellis in Die Hard. “Vlady baby, I love you, and the world should love you! I think we have a real chance here to do something amazing!”
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Boston-area petting zoos know their clientele.
Can you find the matlamb?
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
A very interesting JMP on how insurers use their vertical integration with pharmacy benefit managers to tunnel profits around regulations on medical loss ratios: www.ydeeric.com Reminder to JMCs: Don't post your paper via dropbox or drive. Many organizations can't access them.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
You know who else faces severe restrictions on access to the most up-to-date releases of automobiles?
Picture of street in Cuba
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Promise?
We study how Elon Musk's polarizing and partisan actions have impacted Tesla vehicle sales in the United States. Using county-level, monthly data on new vehicle registrations, we leverage how changes in vehicle sales over time diverge across counties with differing shares of Democratic and Republican voters. Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22% because of substitution, and undermined California’s progress in meeting its zero-emissions vehicle target.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
The "hollowing out" of US manufacturing used to justify IEEPA authority is a fiction. Output is within a few % of all-time highs. Since 1989 output is ⬆️ 67% while employment is ⬇️ 28%. Their claim is false and their solution is nonsense. Thanks to @stanveuger.bsky.social for organizing this brief!
FRED: Manufacturing output near all-time highsFRED: manufacturing labor productivityFRED: Manufacturing employment
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
Drake meme: taxes v gifts to the government
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
*all of the White House. Is there something protecting the rest of the campus from which the East Wing was exempt? This has been so easy, I would be surprised if he doesn't `update' his plans and tear even more down. "That's how construction goes...you get started and find a problem..."
President Donald Trump has told members of his New Jersey golf club that he spends so much time away from Washington because the White House is a "real dump."
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
This is a real test, especially as CBAM implementation advances, of whether or not the EU is chickenshit, in the words of @adamserwer.bsky.social Find that spine, friends.
I want to distinguish between chickenshit and cowardice. Fear is part of human existence. Bravery is the overcoming of fear, not its absence. Acts of cowardice can be provoked by genuine danger—think of a deserting soldier fleeing the peril of the battlefield. When you’re chickenshit, you capitulate to avoid the mere possibility of discomfort, let alone something resembling real risk. Disney is one of the largest companies in the world, with a devoted following and a market cap bigger than many countries’ stock markets. It did not have to cave.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Gita Gopinath is no Nouriel Roubini, always predicting doom. In any case, there goes Fama's subscription, again.
"I didn't renew my subscription to The Economist because they use the world bubble three times on every page"
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
I really can't think of anything in economics that compares to the tectonic shift of Duflo & Banerjee moving to @econ.uzh.ch The closest event has got to be Einstein resigning from the Prussian academy in 1933 and moving to the US. mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Extras/Einst...
Adolf Hitler became Chancellor of the German Reich on 30 January 1930. At this time Albert Einstein was in the United States visiting the California Institute of Technology. Max Planck was Secretary of the Mathematics and Natural Science Section of the Prussian Academy of Sciences and president of the Kaiser Wilhelm Gesellschaft, the main German research organisation. On 23 February 1933, the Reichstag Fire gave Hitler the excuse to suspend all civil liberties in Germany. On 10 March 1933 Einstein reacted to the situation in Germany declaring that he could not live in a country where such liberties were not upheld:

As long as I have any choice, I will only stay in a country where political liberty, toleration, and equality of all citizens before the law are the rule. Political liberty implies liberty to express one's political views orally and in writing, toleration, respect for any and every individual opinion.

These conditions do not obtain in Germany at the present time. Those who have done most for the cause of international understanding, among them some of the leading artists, are being persecuted there.

Any social organism can become psychically distempered just as any individual can, especially in times of difficulty. Nations usually survive these distempers. I hope that healthy conditions will soon supervene in Germany, and that in future her great men like Kant and Goethe will not merely be commemorated from time to time, but that the principles which they inculcated will also prevail in public life and in the general consciousness.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Paging @bardharstad.bsky.social
Buy Coal! A Case for Supply-Side Environmental Policy
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Again? I thought the LAST WARNING was on Sept 7. Or March 5th. It's hard to keep track of his final offers. He's very good at this negotiation thing.
Trump Issues ‘Last Warning’ From U.S. OpenTrump issues 'last warning' to Hamas terrorists, demands release of hostages: 'HELL TO PAY'
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
This Einstein guy was pretty sharp. www.commentary.org/articles/sid...
America is incomparably less endangered by its own Communists than by the hysterical hunt for the few Communists there are here (including those fellow citizens whose red tinge is weaker, à la Jefferson). Why should America be so much more endangered than England by the English Communists? Or is one to believe that the English are politically more naive than the Americans so that they do not realize the danger they are in? No one there works with inquisitions, suspicions, oaths, etc., and still “subversives” do not go unchecked. There, no teachers and no university professors have been thrown out of their jobs, and the Communists there appear to have even less influence than formerly.
In my eyes, the “Communist conspiracy” is principally a slogan used in order to put those who have no judgment and who are cowards into a condition which makes them entirely defenseless. Again, I must think back to Germany of 1932, whose democratic social body had already been weakened by similar means, so that shortly thereafter Hitler was able to deal it the death-blow with ease. I am similarly convinced that those here will go the same way unless men with vision and willingness to sacrifice come to the defense.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
* 2 economists, 1 investor, and 1 self-important lawyer. This discussion is an example of credentials mattering. Cass has to be corrected multiple times. In bad faith, he refuses to acknowledge the corrections. His participation is not informing readers. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o...
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
1958: "within the next two decades," or by about 1975.
Revolutionary Device Would Tame Energy Of Hydrogen Bomb for Peaceful Uses

This is by far the most optimistic statement yet made on the possible realization of practical hydrogen fusion power. Prof. Homi J. Bhabha of India predicted in his presidential address at the opening of the first United Nations Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy in Geneva in 1955 that hydrogen fusion power would be harnessed "within the next two decades," or by about 1975. If the present tests with the Astron should prove successful—and present expectations are high—then controlled economical fusion power may become a reality even sooner than Professor Bhabha predicted.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
Truly excellent throughout.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
Me, reading V.O.S. SELECTIONS, INC. v. TRUMP: I don't think we should empower glorified college debaters who believe their superior intelligence can overrule specialized expertise to make consequential decisions for the country.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
It would be a real shame if more people read the report that triggered Marzulla law to threaten academics and undergrads for the crime of simply studying the suits they file. drive.google.com/file/d/1nrMS...
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
"Things have changed dramatically" is going to be carved on John Roberts' tombstone whether he likes it or not.
Nearly 50 years later, things have changed dramatically. Largely because of the Voting Rights Act, “[v]oter turnout and registration rates” in covered jurisdictions “now approach parity. Blatantly discriminatory evasions of federal decrees are rare. And minority candidates hold office at unprecedented levels.” Northwest Austin, supra, at 202. The tests and devices that blocked ballot access have been forbidden nationwide for over 40 years. Yet the Act has not eased §5’s restrictions or narrowed the scope of §4’s coverage formula along the way. Instead those extraordinary and unprecedented features have been reauthorized as if nothing has changed, and they have grown even stronger. Because §5 applies only to those jurisdictions singled out by §4, the Court turns to consider that provision. Pp. 13–17.

 (b) Section 4’s formula is unconstitutional in light of current conditions. Pp. 17–25.
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
And now the question has been answered: All it took was a little 2020 election flattery. He's the easiest mark on the planet.
Trump Backs Putin's Plan to Cede Land for Peace in Ukraine
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