Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Lastly, was a more attack focused speech than Burnham’s - no massive sign that the attacks hurt Labour much, but they did damage Reform. (oddly attack on Burnham benefited Reform!) Youth jobs and property taxes a pull for decent number of Labour 2024 voters though. 120
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Best PM numbers most boosted by the anti-Reform attack. Likewise, people who saw the whole BBC News at 6 package increased in VI - modest rises but still decent. 120
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Interesting pattern on changes in her personal ratings in that the lifts are stronger overall - slightly suggests what we see in national polls is her brand can’t lift the Tory one at the moment even if people are responsible to some things she says. 110
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026First on voting intention. Property taxes boosted vote intent by +6 points; jobs +5. Less than Burnham’s +10 pt lifts last week but still good. Attack on Reform saw a small bump also. It’s old-fashioned Con fare on taxes/jobs that works best tho. Strong in London & among young. 110
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Finally, thought this was interesting and encouraging for Burnham - a safe seat yes but a London one and no sign many people here interpret him as anti-London, esp Labour electoral coalition. 1111
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Why *did* ppl vote Green and not Lab? Pulls to Greens was core message of pressuring Labour govt from left; housing; wealth inequality. Pushes from Labour: mostly govt delivery (housing again!) plus a little bit of residual toxicity on welfare & Gaza in what is a liberal seat. 181
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Why did people not vote Green? Not wanting to hurt a Lab govt (again impressive mid-term) but also a sense Greens couldn’t win. They never built momentum and probably bad media vibes didn’t help. List was written before ‘Zionism is racism’ furore but no huge sign of salience. 1110
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026We see a bit of this here in net favourables - Burnham and local candidate had strong favourables; even Green/Polanski voters like Burnham while strongly disliking Starmer. Polanski not necessarily unpopular just not preferred. 1152
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Why did people vote Labour? The local candidate was well known and popular, and ultimately people didn’t want to do damage a Labour government. 2286
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Here are the voter flows on 2024 - obviously a lot of non-voters but Labour limiting losses to the Greens among those to 10% is impressive given we're mid-term and no Reform threat. Lab have meaningfully brought some people back since May also, mostly from independent and left. 2132
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026entirely fair enough! did my best but always tricky with paired statements. Only thing i'd say it's not super different to support/oppose questions. Would never say it's the final word, and framing matters hugely; what govt is doing is sellable imo. Agree more in-depth message testing is needed! 100
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026finally, we independently tested the whole BBC News at Six TV package on the speech, since this sort of thing is how more voters would actually experience the speech in reality. All the major metrics increased significantly! Impressive. 1213
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Some persuasion effects on policy: Burnham’s arguments moved more people to support national care service funded by triple lock change, as well as water. (the changes in other areas here weren’t stat significant, though already high). The PM as 'political teacher'. 1193
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Similar result on best PM - some chunky lifts 1192
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Among whom did most of this change come from? Fairly across the board but biggest impact was among those he's gaining from generally: more progressive voters, northern voters. Though bump in favourabilities in Scotland (Brexit potent here) & Wales matters given under-performance here in polling. 1191
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026How about voting intention? All videos pushed up Labour VI, but three stood out: economic power/control, water nationalisation and social care/triple lock clip, boosting it by 8-10 points! This is *genuinely impressive* for such a test, esp in an age of cynicism to politicians. 14212
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026First finding: all clips we tested raised Burnham’s NET favorables by a lot, essentially doubling them. But the public control/ownership themes in particular really smashed it. This is, once again, Burnham’s best performing bit imo. See it consistently in qual and quant. 2368
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026here's a few variations of a support/oppose question if you prefer that instead then. Pretty consistent. This is not to say Burnham's change will be unpopular because it does indeed depend on how it's framed to people in media and so on. But triple lock is popular, worth just acknowledging it. 100
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026this is a good catch, thank you - the headline figure and past vote figures are correct but the age breaks got messed up somehow. Here they are. Will retweet this for clarity! Apols for the confusion. 101
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026There is no doubt most voters - across generations- start from a position of supporting triple lock. Far more so than SW1. Probably Burnham's approach (frame it as double lock, give something back, push change into future) is the best possible persuasion play. Still a gamble, i think winnable. 442
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Does more help for the north mean less help for elsewhere? Mostly people are chilled out, but worth keeping an eye on the 'South' number here especially among Lab 2024 voters (more anti Lab voters in South generally so 'all voters' number skewed by that a bit). 110
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026One advantage is he doesn't have his fingerprints on cost of living, in the way Starmer did pretty quickly with winter fuel allowance. People mostly blame outside forces or profiteering, at least for now. 110
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026In short, his popularity seems mostly based on the fact many people just instinctively like him as a person. His time as Mayor helped this with some too. You can see all this in the prompted list question: 110
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Odd juxtaposition here tho: ask people to write a thing they've noticed or liked that he's done and there's still a lot of shrugging. On a rough count, even 30% who told us they like him can't then name anything specific (!). You see this in groups also. Still mostly undefined. 100
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Firstly, Burnham is legitimately popular - across the majority of the Labour coalition. This is real and not to be sniffed at. He is still largely drawing his polling bounce from progressive voters, who see him as more left wing than Starmer. 110
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026…but beyond that - not loads. A few points on the average policy, more modest than salience. What mostly happened is the people were already *passively supportive* became more activated. Support mostly intensified (somewhat -> strongly). Plus ofc cost of living forces did not magically go away. 1144
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026What changed in policy and narrative attitudes? Well, a +5 increase in the argument for ‘the cost of inaction is too high, prioritise’ message over the 'cost of action is too high, deprioritise' based anti message. 1123
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026This partisan split was there in 2019-2021, but it has widened as the cross-party elite consensus has broken down. Party alignment and values does most of the work in Net Zero attitudes these days; class is relevant but less so than those things imo. 1135
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026This 'salience spike' was a little more lop-sided than previous ones, though. It was *very high* for Green curious Labour swing voters, for instance (a top 3 issue for 49%!), and progressive voters generally - but lower for ‘right bloc’ voters. 1125
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026The effect of this was a big jump in voter prioritisation - a gold standard metric imo. One of biggest spikes of any issue in 2026. Not back to 2021 but significant. This happened because the first-principles cause of climate was in news/culture for a sustained period of time; first time in years. 2248
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Firstly, worth saying the extreme weather had massive cut through in the UK, even more so than France and Spain. 'Green and pleasant lands' turning brown really grabbed people. It increased the not just the perceived threat of climate change to UK voters, but the proximity. 22913
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Even in the end days of Starmer, Lab were holding on here in MRPs and at locals. It's a seat with lots of 'financially secure/socially lib attitudes' voters + BME = modern Lab base. Financially insecure lib voters more likely to be Lab/Green swingers. 131
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 26/08/2026Majestic bit of polling / data vis this from @yougov.co.uk and i fancy tells you quite a bit about the UK’s media ecosystem ! 050
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Updated figures on where the Burnham bounce is coming from: Most of it still clawing back Lab 2024 voters from other left parties. But Lab now also taking 11-12% of Green & LD 2024 vote. Small but important slither of Con 2024 vote too. Reform voters (incl Lab/Reform voters) are unmoved. 1106
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/08/2026Sometimes neglected thing about the Conservative's hard turn against Net Zero is that as an issue it actually splits their voter coalition a fair bit more than Labour's. Con-Reform swing voters are hostile to climate action and clean energy, but Con-Lib Dem type swing voters are pro. 45615
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Some wild shit happening in France too on this, where climate has catapulted into joint 2nd issue for voters (along with inflation) in the aftermath of wildfires. This will subside post-summer i'm sure, but does show voters still pay attention when things get v bad. www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/ce-qui... 161
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Some interesting context: a summer of extreme weather (or, cultural discussion around it) has spiked the issue salience of climate for voters. Is back as a top 5 issue, ahead of housing, education, crime. But elite polarisation means politicians largely still too scared to talk about it for now. 2197
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/08/2026Updated numbers here: Burnham bounce still basically entirely coming from clawing back voters Labour had lost to Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid/SNP. In addition, Burnham now winning 10% of Green 2024 voters - double that from June. 65012
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Where is the 'Burnham bounce' coming from? So far, it's largely Labour 2024 voters returning to Labour - mostly those 'progressive defectors' who had previously switched to the Greens. Based on 5 polls with headline VI since 20th July (MiC, Delta, YG, Survation). 175
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 20/07/2026Was intrigued by this so went to have a look at how Labour voters values/priorities differ by whether they live in more metropolitan or provincial constituencies. The answer is: not much ! Geography matters at the margin, but a Lab voter in Makerfield is not that different to one in Hastings. 34413
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 16/07/2026Along similar lines, associating Net Zero with high energy costs intuitively lands with core Reform 2024 voters but nobody else. Most just don't think about it much at all beyond passive support. Except for Lab/Green voters for whom it's still v important to be solid on it! 2395
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 16/07/2026...so you drive voters to the Greens while not bringing back (or over) any from Reform or the Tories. In this sense, Lab coalition is pretty together on it. It’s the Con vote that's more split between what’s left of the Goldsmith environmental types and new wave NZ skeptics 1396
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 16/07/2026Weird thing is most testing will show you that one of the most vote losing positions Labour could adopt is explicit anti-Net Zero signalling. This is because climate still disproportionately matters to Lab/Green voters while Lab/Reform voters don’t care either way... 4384135
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 02/07/2026This is *just an experiment* but tells us: 1. There’s lots of elasticity in Lab vote which gets catalysed by CoL populism 2. It unites Burnham’s Makerfield coalition nationally (unites left, pulls over soft Cons + Reform). Combining it with being clear anti-Reform option is a winner 151
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 02/07/2026To stress test, then, we had a condition where people were equally exposed to both a CoL platform AND a standard Reform platform (see full deck for it). Doing this reduced Lab’s advantage a bit but, in a Lab vs Reform squeeze, still left them with a majority. 141
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 02/07/2026If you combine people seeing this platform with a ‘it’s Labour or Reform in this election’ squeeze message, you end up with Labour on 47% and an increased majority. This is the absolute upper end of what’s do’able, realistically – so we wanted to stress test it more. 142
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 02/07/2026The second group, though, were asked how they’d vote if Labour stood on the below platform – established from aforementioned testing. This saw a sizable jump (15ppt) in Labour vote share and seats – to 358 seats. Massive improvement on status quo trajectory. 242
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 02/07/2026To get to a platform, then, we threw 50+ ideas from new economy thinkers into RCT testing – judging them by ability to move Lab’s vote but also *grab attention* (crucial). More on policy wording + how we did this in full deck (it's cool!) but the results gave us this shortlist: 152
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 23/06/2026Nice of this cafe in Sarajevo to pay tribute to our fallen leader this week 262