Sign in

Christopher Peters

@statwonk.bsky.social
952 followers 1.2K following 527 posts

statwonk.com, Dad, Partner. Statistician-Econometrician-Engineer. AI Developer. Decision theory. Game theory. #autisticpride #9 at Zapier, first DS

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Richard Van Noorden @richvn.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
NEW: researchers say one 'zombie' study in Iran, 20 years ago, has skewed the world's medical evidence base for using Prozac to treat depression in children. They stop short of saying don't use Prozac this way, but want clinical guidelines revised. @nature.com www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Prozac use for childhood depression skewed by single flawed medical trial
One small study in Iran swayed meta-analyses in favour of antidepressant use in children, researchers say.
1229
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Thierry St-Laurent Dion @tstld.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sketch of a Turkey Vulture Bic pen on paper #art #birds #nature #sciart
Sketch of a Turkey Vulture made with a bic pen on paper.
211333
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Suspended animation Dismal jobs report with only 29,000 jobs created in the month and tepid wage gains. Losses in local government employment shaved 17K from the total Wage gains continued to cool. Benefit costs are cutting into wage gains, much to the dismay of workers.
14520
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The tech bros work together and think alike, and Elon is the primus inter pares. bsky.app/profile/medi...
1219
Reposted by Christopher Peters
NBC News @nbcnews.com · 01/10/2026
Tennessee fails to execute the lone woman on its death row, Christa Pike, as planned, after injecting her twice with a lethal drug. Attorneys for Pike say that she is being treated at a hospital, but they did not know her condition.
nbcnews.to
‘It was a mess’: Tennessee fails to execute inmate after 2 lethal injections
Attorneys for Christa Pike said she was being treated at a hospital but her condition is unknown. Journalists who witnessed her attempted execution described snoring, kicking and complaints from Pike about pain.
244932
Reposted by Christopher Peters
AFP News Agency @en.afp.com · 01/10/2026
🇮🇩 Women fight fires and sexism in Indonesian Borneo More than 100 women in Indonesian Borneo have joined a volunteer initiative dubbed "Power of Mama" -- patrolling daily for smoke and flames and jumping in to put out fires when needed.
1115
Reposted by Christopher Peters
epistemic crisis actor @insaanity.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
They meant the "fascism" of giving people healthcare, education, food assistance, etc. because black and brown people would benefit. If any of *that* was going on they'd be marching on Washington with all their guns drawn.
0223
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Serene Doomer @serenaribena.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
'‘Explosion of melt rates’: 20% of Swiss glaciers lost in five years. 🇨🇭 has lost almost 1/5 of its ice in just 5 yrs, research has found, in a dramatic reshaping of the Alpine country whose big white glaciers have been reduced to moonlike rock deserts' www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
‘Explosion of melt rates’: 20% of Swiss glaciers lost in five years
Alpine regions in Europe experiencing extreme glacier collapse due to heat-trapping effects of fossil fuel pollution
082
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
AI output can be interrogated similar to calculator output. It’s possible to trace reasoning.
000
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
How can this be distinguished from boundary tending? When machines automated the women-led “computer” occupation, women were excluded from the math work it enabled. The lesson is not to restrict computation, but to avoid preventing people from succeeding given what’s made possible with new tech.
001
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Kaitlin Kal Lee @kaitlinkallee.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Rapists have rights to co-parenting with their victims if she conceives…. And there’s nothing right about that. A rapist will walk free his whole life and nothing changes for him, but victims are never the same.
15010
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Inshallah he shows up in every close race
4646
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Students should be given more access to AI during exams, bc early evidence suggests it improves their performance. Randomization would be appropriate to adjudicate concerns and accelerate learning.
000
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Nicholas Brown @nicholasabrown.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
(WSJ) - Kalshi said on Monday that it would ban former Republican Rep. George Santos from using its platform for life after a federal regulator alleged that the ex-congressman made more than $17,000 by placing bets on his attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address.
wsj.com
Ex-Congressman George Santos Receives Kalshi’s First-Ever Lifetime Ban
The decision comes after a federal regulator alleged he made more than $17,000 by placing bets on his attendance at the State of the Union address.
042
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
> In Ukraine, Russian soldiers are increasingly surrendering to machines www.nbcnews.com/tech/securit...
nbcnews.com
In Ukraine, Russian soldiers are increasingly surrendering to machines
More than 100 Russian soldiers surrendered to drones over the winter, a former Ukrainian official said. NBC News talked to one unit that captured four men without firing a shot.
033
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Again, the constantly unreported news here is that all of this is wildly illegal & violates both the USMCA that Trump himself negotiated & our WTO obligations. Als, the Section 338 rationale, like all the others, is total BS, & everyone knows this, but the media doesn't even mention it anymore 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️
923070
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
> Dalio Says Sell Bonds, Buy Gold, Bitcoin as Debt Crisis Looms Well I guess it’s a good thing Dalio is so accurate with his predictions, or people wouldn’t be able to benefit from all his good advice! archive.is/jlUBAg
archive.is
Welcome to nginx
If you see this page, the nginx web server is successfully installed and working. Further configuration is required.
000
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Also, Anthropic’s revenue run rate jumped to $60 billion due to the leap of Fable. GPT-5.6 Sol is fairly caught up now.
000
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
One data point does not a trend make— see the fields of statistics and econometrics.
100
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
At this rate, OpenAI alone is likely to have ~ $130 billion of annualized revenue this time next year.
100
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
That’s wishful thinking. 🤷 The market’s already paying $100 billion and set to double next year.
000
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
What’s the best argument in your opinion?
001
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Expertise matters and he’s making microeconomic comments. 🤷 Why should we put stock in a PR specialist’s economic comments?
000
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Reported here, www.theinformation.com/newsletters/...
theinformation.com
Why OpenAI, Anthropic Missed Their Own Gross Margin Forecasts
OpenAI has become increasingly optimistic about the revenue it expects to generate from both consumers and businesses, pushing up its projections for the next five years. Clouding those forecasts, how...
100
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Yes, but it’s really more about gross margin and their trajectories seem good to me. Anthropic’s apparently at 40%. OpenAI is at 33%. The path to 60% seems reasonable. Zitron’s a PR specialist, not an economist.
110
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Yep, clearly Ed Zitron’s a public relations specialist not economist.
111
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Yep, clearly Ed Zitron’s a public relations specialist not economist.
111
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
By Zitron’s logic, these were terrible investments: Amazon, Uber, Netflix, Tesla, AirBnB, Salesforce …
210
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This is basically the canonical investment phase → scale → operating leverage → profits. The losses are economically sensible when the company is building assets—customers, network effects, technology, distribution, capacity—that produce future cash flows.
100
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
> Russians pull billions from banks, fearing Kremlin will seize deposits for war www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
washingtonpost.com
000
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Asawin Suebsaeng @swin24.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I am not the first to make this point but imagine a woman president obsessing constantly over her “ballroom” as the economy imploded and her war spun out of control
13280241435
Reposted by Christopher Peters
JCMartinofBA @jcmartinofba.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Left- Funeral for the IDF soldier who always told his wife how many houses he had demolished that day. Right- Israel blocks crucial supplies from entering Gaza, putting thousands of Palestinians at risk.
15151101
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Pannier Peter 🚲 @peter.dev · 13/08/2026
How does Woke do minor release versioning? Are we doing semantic versioning?
242
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Headquarters @headquartersnews.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
New reporting reveals Ohio Republican Gov. candidate Vivek Ramaswamy hired his mother to manipulate clinical trial data for an Alzheimer's drug he owned the rights to. This scheme boosted Ramaswamy's company stock price and generated a $1.4 B IPO, where he then cashed out before the stock tanked.
1191128550
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Still weird that the Carnegie fellows are only for polarization given, "Across democracies, the central dynamic is not two poles drifting apart but the transformation of the political right into authoritarianism, norm breaking, and openness to political violence." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
It’s Not Polarization; It’s the Radicalization of the Political Right | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
It’s Not Polarization; It’s the Radicalization of the Political Right
03315
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
> Bayesian model averaging in the M-open framework academic.oup.com/book/12043/c...
academic.oup.com
Bayesian model averaging in the M-open framework
Abstract. This chapter presents a model averaging approach in the M-open setting using sample re-use methods to approximate the predictive distribution of
010
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
People talk about super-intelligence like it’s a future only thing.
120
Reposted by Christopher Peters
dr. thrasher, an american writer in ex(archia)(xile) @thrasherxy.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
“Maybe Jackie Robinson should start a Negro league” — Smith in 1947
15010
Reposted by Christopher Peters
David Sligar @davidsligar.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Words to remember from Aaron Swartz
084
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Trump pushing his way into the soccer celebration is normal-level ugly, but Trump doing it while the top NYT headline is about US troops dying is, to me, a good deal uglier.
101154251
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Brielle 💖 @briellebear.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
I really hate the “I don’t owe anyone anything” mentality because we actually owe each other and this planet a lot. You don’t have to be selfless all the time or burn yourself out but you should be kind and helpful and compassionate to the best of your ability. We need to care about each other more
3663232449
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Newsmax spews propaganda designed to undermine confidence in democratic institutions. I've lived and worked in Beijing and know that their elections are a farce designed to bolster the authority of the CPC, nothing more.
44411
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Is Kimi K3 vaporware? Won’t complete any actual requests for me.
000
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
> Russian soldiers only live an average of 20 to 30 minutes on the battlefield because of Ukraine’s artificial-intelligence attack drones, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
CIA Says AI Drones Give Russian Troops Only 30 Minutes to Live
Russian soldiers only live an average of 20 to 30 minutes on the battlefield because of Ukraine’s artificial-intelligence attack drones, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday.
000
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Andrew Weinstein @andrewjweinstein.com · 15/07/2026
When you block the promotion of our top naval officers because they don't fit your preferred demographic, you’re not defending the country. You’re betraying the values that define it.
nytimes.com
Opportunities Narrow for Women as Hegseth Blocks More Promotions (Gift Article)
For the first time in more than a decade, no active-duty female Navy officers are likely to be promoted to admiral this year.
20549213
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
GOLDMAN: “.. Based on details in the CPI report, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.18% in June (vs. our expectation of 0.24% before the CPI release), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.33%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index declined 0.06% in June ..”
810218
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
> Warsh Says Fed Has ‘No Tolerance’ for Elevated Inflation What inflation? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Warsh Says Fed Has ‘No Tolerance’ for Elevated Inflation
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said policymakers at the central bank have no tolerance for high inflation, reiterating a vow to tame price growth that has been elevated for five years.
000
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
I think so, depending on the value of information likely to be gleaned. If it’s low due to a substitute like a well-substantiated sharp prior or LLM prediction, then another experiment is likely to be more valuable.
010
Reposted by Christopher Peters
This skeet will self destruct @pardoguerra.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
This is quite the finding for a device thats just a plagiarism machine, or whatever we are calling it this week. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Large language models can predict the results of social science experiments - Nature
Large language models can be used to estimate the results of social science experiments about as accurately as a group of human forecasters—even for experiments published after the...
44111
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Kat Tenbarge @kattenbarge.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
A lot of the people posting terrible takes about sexual violence victims know they’re wrong. It is an expression of solidarity with perpetrators, who tend to occupy higher positions of power, versus victims, who tend to be disempowered. Sometimes it is because they are perpetrators, too.
15987188