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soodoku

@soodoku.bsky.social
587 followers 960 following 1.8K posts

gojiberries.io github.com/soodoku

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Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 19h
The problem is noise, not N: why increasing the sample size isn’t all that. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/10/t...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
The problem is noise, not N: why increasing the sample size isn’t all that. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 18h
Kind of striking how persistent the decline in Trump's approval rating has been. There's been mean reversion around news events and economic data, but to a declining rather than steady baseline as in the 1st term. Original post
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Sung Kim @sungkim.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
LightOnOCR-3 Leading benchmark results : ahead of Chandra-OCR-2, Mistral OCR 4.1 and dots.mocr on OlmOCR-Bench, and first among open-weight models on ParseBench. Blog and Models: huggingface.co/blog/lighton... Website and Models: www.lighton.ai/research/lig...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The other thing I have thought about is how informality of the jobs makes work more precarious
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Given the WTP and given the government has not stepped up, do you think there is an opportunity for a market based solution that dramatically increases the quality of life of women?
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Laurel Raffington @laraffington.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Cash transfers to US mothers with low income caused small but measurable changes in children's biological aging by age four 🧬 Our new study in @nathumbehav.nature.com www.nature.com/articles/s41... press release > www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/press-releas...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Andrew calls it the digit soup. He made fun of my 3 decimal precision in a paper many years ago. And I deserved it, of course.
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
A very minimal way to get a crude estimate of Monte Carlo uncertainty in a simulation summary (mean, median, proportion): split it in half, do the summary for each half, and see how different they are. You at least can avoid quoting 5 digits where only 2 are meaningful. For example.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
github.com/soodoku/pare...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
github.com/soodoku/pare...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
percolating on (and what was in the original thing): Where the moral disagreement is real: if it’s common knowledge that the other side is sincerely morally certain too, should that reduce our second-order confidence that our moral framework is the obviously right one?
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
like if illegal immigrants are committing heinous crime ... or to take the 80s example of a welfare queen ... and then you wonder why 'these people' still support X.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Two things I’m chewing on. We’re still inferring citizens’ morality from politicians’ positions; some apparent moral disagreement may really be disagreement over facts, followed by the usual motivated-reasoning interpretation hell
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I like your pt. It feels like a politically mature version of the Haidt point that people can arrive at sincere moral outrage from different moral starting points.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I was lazy and replied to the excerpt before reading the piece. By 40% I meant: explaining Dem. anger explains only that much. Your point is different — and much more interesting.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
But that's explaining at best 40% right? Or could the other side's animosity be principled also? And if so, then we need wider bands on what we think is right which would mean lower hostility?
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Distract yourself with this. The Japanese dating app Pairs includes your blood group. Korean version makes it mandatory for men to have their employer verify where they work. In Singapore, the app CMB links to national ID data, hitting married men pretending to be single www.ft.com/content/6269...
ft.com
Dating apps turn to Asia as swipe-right fatigue takes hold in the west
Rising numbers of ‘goal-orientated’ women are using the apps as stigma over online dating fades
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Nicholas A. Christakis @nachristakis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
When did colors appear in the biological world? And which came first, color vision or coloration? By >100M years, it was color vision first, then coloration of fruit, then flowers, then warning signals, then sexual signals. For sexual signals, coloration and color vision evolved simultaneously.
quantamagazine.org
When Did Nature Burst Into Vivid Color? | Quanta Magazine
Scientists reconstructed 500 million years of evolutionary history to reveal which came first: colorful signals or the color vision needed to see them.
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Semafor @semafor.com · 30/09/2026
Visitors to the US are on track to drop by almost two million year-on-year. “We’re the only major country in the world losing visitation,” the head of the US Travel Association said. “It’s mind-boggling.” www.semafor.com/article/09/2...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
www.gojiberries.io/do-spammers-...
gojiberries.io
Do Spammers Deserve Death?
Spam—messages sent in bulk to people who did not ask for them—imposes several costs on its recipients. First, the messages have to be transmitted, processed, and stored. Second, because there is so mu...
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Joshua Goodman @joshua-goodman.com · 30/09/2026
This researcher has hit the last name jackpot. Nearly everyone cites her work.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
alarming rate of errors or there is error in error rates ... jimbobrand.substack.com/p/are-llms-m...
jimbobrand.substack.com
Are LLMs making papers better?
Another look at science acceleration
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Why do our cells age? It's not just wear and tear, accumulated damage. Loss of cell identity takes center stage. A new Nature paper and connection with prior work that substantially advances the science of aging. In the new Ground Truths. erictopol.substack.com/p/loss-of-ce...
erictopol.substack.com
Loss of Cell Identity Drives Human Aging
That’s What Biological (Epigenetic) Aging Clocks Are Measuring
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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
:(
Interest payments are already set to grow to 8% of GDP if they stay at 4.2%. If rates are 1 pp higher, then they’d top 12% of GDP within 30 years
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Official monthly data is in, and US solar power generation hit a new record high, up 21% compared to this time last year!
a graph of US monthly solar generation
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 29/09/2026
"The Long-Term Effects of Cash Assistance" by David J. Price and Jae Song Just out in @aeajournals.bsky.social —> doi.org/10.1257/app....
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
github.com/soodoku/dp-l...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
github.com/soodoku/dp-l...
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Blue Cross/Blue Shield: More than 60% of hospital systems are now using AI-enabled technologies that can scan lab results and electronic records to identify secondary diagnoses, which could move a patient into a higher-severity, higher-reimbursement billing category. www.bcbs.com/about-us/ass...
bcbs.com
BCBSA Analysis How AI Coding Tools Affect Healthcare Costs
Analysis of BCBS claims data found growing use of AI coding tools contribute to higher hospital billing costs and increased healthcare spending.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It is like bearing a load ...
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Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 22/09/2026
Tyrannosaurus xkcd.com/3300/
Comic. [Person with long hair pointing to diagram with Tyrannosaurus Rex standing next to a person.] PERSON: We now believe the primary prey of Tyrannosaurus Rex was these humans who kept standing next to it for scale.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"After a surge of petitions crashed a Department of Labor (DOL) server in 2019, the agency began processing employers' petitions in randomized order, assigning each a letter." www.aeaweb.org/research/imm...
aeaweb.org
Winning the visa lottery
Evidence from a US government lottery shows that restricting foreign low-skill workers shrinks businesses without creating jobs for Americans.
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Woke 1 was crazy but a lot of aspects of this striking shift in public opinion were good. www.slowboring.com/p/the-great-...
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I've played around a ton with AI but the main actually useful thing I do with it have ordinary language conversations generate ggplot graphics which is super useful in a banal way. www.slowboring.com/p/the-great-...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
+1. Pair with data from the ANES. www.gojiberries.io/striking-cha...
gojiberries.io
Striking Changes Among Democrats on Race and Gender
The election of Donald Trump led many to think that Republicans have changed, especially on race-related issues. But the data suggest that the big changes in public opinion on racial issues over the l...
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
The girlboss economy
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
i saw a 102%
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Ted Underwood @tedunderwood.com · 16/09/2026
As models get close to — or, in some cases, beyond — human experts, it becomes very challenging to figure out how to measure them. But what a fascinating problem! I suspect we're going to have to evaluate models the same way we evaluate human innovation: dialogically and perspectivally.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
recite.github.io/softverse/lo... back with @s3alfisc.bsky.social
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Locked offices and millions in donations: Inside India's little-known political parties www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
RUPPs: Inside India's little-known political parties that recieve millions of dollars
Little-known political parties are receiving millions in donations despite limited electoral activity.
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Marc Lanctot @sharky6000.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
25 Fields Medalists.. 😱 mathandai.org
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
GenAI Misinformation, Trust, and News Consumption: Evidence from a Field Experiment www.nber.org/papers/w34100
nber.org
GenAI Misinformation, Trust, and News Consumption: Evidence from a Field Experiment
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
seen on HN "I used to read the Grauniad, but I've become distrustful of it over the past few years because of how aggressively it panders to my sensibilities and biases."
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Making Teenagers Read Newspapers. A Nationwide Experiment in French High Schools cepr.org/publications...
cepr.org
DP21706 Making Teenagers Read Newspapers. A Nationwide Experiment in French High Schools
Despite unprecedented access to information in the digital age, young citizens face growing challenges related to news consumption and misinformation. This large-scale randomized controlled trial exam...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
Urban congestion relief experiments through routing-app interventions - Nature Cities
Traffic congestion is a growing concern for cities. This study offers real-world evidence that redirecting a small portion of navigation-app trips from congested routes can improve traffic speeds and ...
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Rising Income Risk at the Top papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Rising Income Risk at the Top
We document an increase in U.S. income risk from 1969 to 2019 using newly digitized IRS tax returns, distinguishing permanent from transitory risk. Since the 19
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Rising Income Risk at the Top papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Rising Income Risk at the Top
We document an increase in U.S. income risk from 1969 to 2019 using newly digitized IRS tax returns, distinguishing permanent from transitory risk. Since the 19
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
innovations in econometrics EXPLAINING THE PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE OF POLICE IN CASES OF DOMESTIC ABUSE www.nber.org/system/files...
nber.org
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Sung Kim @sungkim.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
My review after using it for 1 hour or so on $5 plan. I have used Muse Code + muse-spark-1.3 model The model may be good or not, but Muse Code needs a lot of work.
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soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
github.com/finite-sampl...
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