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Shahin Vallée

@shahinvallee.bsky.social
813 followers 169 following 96 posts

Economist, think tanker. senior fellow DGAP, board member Observatory Group

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Reposted by Shahin Vallée
Jens van 't Klooster 💸💸💸 @jvtk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Finally out, with @shahinvallee.bsky.social our ambitious story for European Macro Policy Network (EMPN) on the future of the global euro empn.eu/publication/...
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
geoeconomics.substack.com/p/notes-on-e...
geoeconomics.substack.com
Notes on Europe
Lander elections and a historical weak chancellor, the EU-China trade dialogue and the ECB rate outlook
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
27/Lots of cynicism about US frontier labs & Chinese govt's stated aims to avoid recursive self-improvement & cybersecurity risks. Global coordination seems a nonstarter "Is Anthropic’s push to pace AI developments a pivot on CAPEX?" asks @shahinvallee.bsky.social Levine: bsky.app/profile/jwma...
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
geoeconomics.substack.com/p/notes-on-e...
geoeconomics.substack.com
Notes on Europe
G20 fails at launching an AI regulatory effort, all eyes on Xi-Trump summit, the Saxony Anhalt election and the Brandmauer test, the ECB leadership succession is fully on.
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Reposted by Shahin Vallée
Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Fantastic piece, highly recommend it. As @shahinvallee.bsky.social argues, the EU has good reasons to focus on AI adoption rather than innovation. But from what I read China is betting heavily on industrial AI adoption too. The key question is how Europe can still eke out an edge in this area.
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
open.substack.com/pub/geoecono...
open.substack.com
Notes on Europe
Gourinchas, Gopinath and Rey respond to Brad Setser and myself just as we witness the biggest FX coordinated intervention since 2011, the EU-China trade dance continues and Citadel's masterstroke
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Palma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Hungary's new government is tested very early. Paks nuclear plant is about to go offline for the first time in 44 years because the Danube is drying up. That's nearly half the country's electricity. Collapsed supply & gas prices spiking throughout the region. Just brutal. apnews.com/article/hung...
apnews.com
Hungary braces for a full shutdown of the Paks nuclear plant as the Danube River hits record lows
Hungary's only nuclear power plant is shutting down for the first time due to record-low water levels on the Danube River.
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alina @ramshackle78.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
France should rightly celebrate this www.ihes.fr/en/hong-wang...
ihes.fr
Hong Wang, Permanent Professor at IHES, awarded the 2026 Fields Medal - IHES
- Hong Wang, mathématicienne chinoise de 35 ans, spécialisée en analyse harmonique, s'est vue décerner la médaille Fields à l'occasion du Congrès international des mathématiciens.
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
A new quickie on global imbalances and exchange rate policy coordination www.intereconomics.eu/contents/yea...
intereconomics.eu
From the Plaza Accord to the Busan Truce and Back
Intereconomics is an academic journal that publishes articles by experts on current economic and social policy issues affecting Europe.
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Reposted by Shahin Vallée
Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
New Merz quotes on China from an exchange in the Bundestag today. The tone is getting sharper substack.com/profile/2516...
substack.com
Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin)
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz answered questions in the German parliament today and there were several on China, including on trade and the role of Chinese suppliers in Germany's telecommunications...
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Reposted by Shahin Vallée
Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
My Trade Secrets today. The EU's done climate change the economist's way, pricing CO2 emissions & incentivising global adoption. But it's outflanked by China's greentech mercantilism, developed mainly for non-environmental reasons, & Trump's accidental Iran war carbon price hike. Funny old world.
as.ft.com
China and the US, accidental climate saviours of the world
The EU carbon pricing model is being supplanted by Beijing’s green tech spending and Donald Trump’s oil price shock
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Very interesting paper and thread by friends on the tensions between inflation fight and accelerating the transition (which is key to anchor long term inflation expectations).
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
www.cfr.org/articles/cur... new piece with Brad Setser building on what currency arrangements can bring to global rebalancing
cfr.org
Currency Moves Can Drive Rebalancing | Council on Foreign Relations
The currencies of Asia’s major economies are all substantially undervalued
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Reposted by Shahin Vallée
George Pearkes @peark.es · 18/06/2026
Sure why not *SPACEX BANKERS PREPARING FOR BOND SALE OF AT LEAST $20 BILLION
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Grand Continent @grandcontinent.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Le G7 d'Évian s'ouvre aujourd'hui — et pour @shahinvallee.bsky.social et Brad Setser, une dimension fondamentale de la géopolitique contemporaine y est négligée. Tout le monde refoule la guerre des changes. Nous courons le risque d’une déflagration.
legrandcontinent.eu
Le G7 d'Évian fait apparaître l’angle mort de l’économie mondiale | Le Grand Continent
Tout le monde refoule la guerre des changes. C’est un problème.
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
The collapse of FCAS is the tip of the iceberg. Germany and France have failed to set out a common vision for any of the major challenges that Europe faces. The next test will be China giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Europe’s fighter jet fiasco
The collapse of Paris and Berlin’s joint venture raises the question of whether either country can do defence alone
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Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
While I have well-known reservations about certain aspects of the Global Imbalance debate (see pinned tweet), I am 100% on board with the idea that the RMB should appreciate significantly from here (as indeed should all Asian FX). www.foreignaffairs.com/china/real-p...
foreignaffairs.com
The Real Problem With Global Trade
How China’s currency manipulation is warping the world economy.
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Fabien Escalona @fabienescalona.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Très bel hommage de @faizazer.bsky.social à Mehdi Charef. Tristesse d’apprendre sa disparition, et souvenir ému d’avoir restitué quelques-uns de ses mots sur scène, jadis… 😢
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Nassira El Moaddem @nassiraelmoaddem.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Nous avons beaucoup de chance de bénéficier sur ce réseau des analyses du chercheur @sebastianjroche.bsky.social, spécialiste de la comparaison des systèmes de police. Suivez-le si ce n'est pas encore le cas et lisez son dernier entretien dans l' @humanite.fr : www.humanite.fr/politique/ex...
humanite.fr
Sebastian Roché, sociologue au CNRS : « la France se singularise en Europe par la répétition des brutalités policières et des décès lors d’interventions » - L'Humanité
Le sociologue Sebastian Roché, directeur de recherches au CNRS et auteur du livre la Police contre la rue (Grasset, 2023), analyse les raisons et les conséquences possibles du vote d...
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Reposted by Shahin Vallée
Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
1/4 Good Brad Setser and Shahin Vallée piece on the role of currencies in trade imbalances: "Economists in the aftermath of World War II understood the connection between currencies and the balance of trade." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/real-p...
foreignaffairs.com
The Real Problem With Global Trade
How China’s currency manipulation is warping the world economy.
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Christine Lagarde @president.ecb.europa.eu · 10/06/2026
It’s a pleasure to welcome Emmanuel Moulin to his first Governing Council meeting following his recent appointment as Governor at the Banque de France. Bienvenue cher Emmanuel !
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 08/06/2026
How did they not come up with something better in the MONTHS they had to prepare the FCAS cancellation?! No plan B on the fighter; French press (and others) report it was Berlin which ended it; Spain (the third partner!!) nowhere to be seen. They didn’t even manage to end this mess correctly 🤯
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European News @eunews.social · 07/06/2026
Speaking in Madrid yesterday, Pope Leo XIV stated: "I encourage you to nurture the process of the European Union, which is not merely a counterweight to other powers, but a gift to humanity."
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
My new weekly Notes on Europe. open.substack.com/pub/geoecono...
open.substack.com
Notes on Europe
ECB meeting, G7 in Evian and the missing exchange rate question, the international role of the euro
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
What areas are ripe for G7 cooperation on economic security? Thanks to @ecfr.eu @agathedemarais.com for herding the cats on these T7 proposals think7-2026.org/wp-content/u...
think7-2026.org
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Fomo
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Good story from the FT: Morocco is being used as a backdoor into the EU by Chinese firms across the auto supply chain. Unless the EU develops a response, its EV tariffs and FDI conditioning push will all be for naught. www.ft.com/content/706c...
ft.com
EU frets as China builds an industrial base in Morocco
Billions of dollars of investment raise concerns that subsidised goods could swamp European manufacturers
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Sefcovic on how Chinese competition is affecting Europe: “We are talking about factories, the whole sector sometimes — industries with many, many years of tradition. And we simply can’t just look on while these industries are lost.” @andybounds.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/7ba2...
ft.com
The EU’s ‘Mr Fixit’
‘I’m telling our UK friends: we are not greedy,’ says the bloc’s trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
🙈👌🤪🤦🤦
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
I grew up watching Arte documentaries and if you ever told me I'd be in one on Money, I'd have laughed incredulously. www.arte.tv/fr/videos/12...
arte.tv
Money (4/12) - Le roi dollar - Regarder le documentaire complet | ARTE
En 1971, le président Nixon annonce la fin de la convertibilité du dollar en or, bouleversant le système économique mondial. Pourtant, le dollar demeure la valeur refuge du monde entier et conserve so...
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
This is pretty inevitable, given the cost of transporting EVs from China. The big question is technology transfer to European companies, or lack of it. www.ft.com/content/96fb...
ft.com
Stellantis strikes deal to build Dongfeng cars in France
Jeep and Peugeot owner to make Chinese group’s high-end vehicles at underutilised Rennes plant
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
This is a fantastic paper - you should really give it a read. Also, here’s one of the charts I found most striking. The EU clearly has a problem integrating Chinese battery investment into European production chains. The problem is that, without tighter rules, the IAA is unlikely to change that.
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Jannik Jansen @jannikjansen.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
For years, Europe assumed foreign investment would naturally generate industrial upgrading. The Industrial Accelerator Act marks a shift. @aleichthammer.bsky.social & I argue its FDI conditionality targets a real issue, but is currently too weak to solve it 🧵 www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
delorscentre.eu
Selective Conditionality: The EU’s Emerging Approach to Foreign Investment
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Guntram Wolff @guntramwolff.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Big spending, little future: Germany is rearming differently from Poland and the UK - our new report is out: www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
kielinstitut.de
Leading in spending, lagging in innovation: German defence procurement compared to the UK and Poland - Kiel Institute
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Fascinating slide from Volkswagen. Note the "handshake" between Europe and China. And the fact that cars produced in China will be serving every major global market apart from the US. When will this cumbersome slogan be replaced by "In China for the Globe (ex-US)"
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Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Barry Eichengreen was interviewed by @shahinvallee.bsky.social in @grandcontinent.bsky.social, where he discussed his new book Money Beyond Borders and the future of the global currency that is the $$: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/02/2... 🇫🇷 #Economics
legrandcontinent.eu
La fin du dollar roi ? Eichengreen sur le futur de la monnaie
C’est l’une des transformations les moins visibles et les plus profondes de notre temps. Dans un ouvrage à paraître en mars aux presses de Princeton, l’économiste Barry Eichengreen décrypte...
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Trump's petrowars threaten to unleash carbon shock therapy around the world - disorderly decarbonization and deindustrialisation. The answer, we argue w @benbraun.eurosky.social, is decarbonised sovereignty, a pathway for the Santa Marta coalition. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/aga...
phenomenalworld.org
Against Carbon Shock Therapy | Daniela Gabor & Benjamin Braun
The war in Iran has sent oil prices skyrocketing. Daniela Gabor and Benjamin Braun argue the ripple effects and states (non)responses to the crisis represent a
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Shahin Vallée @shahinvallee.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
A fantastic must read paper for those interested in decarbonisation, EU-China relations and industrial policy
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
"It's actually enraging how the World Bank can suddenly change its mind about industrial policy like "Oops, for the past 45 years we systematically prevented you from using the most obvious tool for sovereign development, keeping you stuck in poverty and dependency, lol".- @jasonhickel.bsky.social
theatlantic.com
A Pillar of the Economics Establishment Admits That It Was Wrong
In a new report, the World Bank thinks better of its old free-market absolutism.
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Palma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Why did Orbán lose? The external scaffolding of his regime is often underappreciated—and parts of it started to come undone. I wrote this before the election: brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/the-house-...
brettoninthewoods.substack.com
The House of Orbán: Neo-Royalism—or Just a Dynasty?
Stacie E. Goddard and Abraham Newman’s neo-royalist framework not only captures the logic of Viktor Orbán’s rule, but also goes a long way toward explaining why it is unraveling.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Mark Sobel and I discussed the new global imbalances at the IMF yesterday. Its fair to say we are both jittery about them and not optimistic on their resolution through international coordination. A crisis of sorts is more likely. m.youtube.com/watch?v=F21W...
m.youtube.com
Understanding the renewed focus on global imbalances
YouTube video by AtlanticCouncil
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isaac @sevier.io · 17/04/2026
12 more states have bills to ban new data centers but Maine passed theirs first. The future is absolutely up for grabs. thehill.com/homenews/sta...
thehill.com
Maine passes first-in-nation freeze on big data centers
The Maine legislature passed the first state ban in the nation on the development of large data centers on Tuesday.  The temporary measure, which lasts for 1.5 years, restricts the constructio…
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Hettie O’Brien @hettieobrien.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
A very generous review of THE ASSET CLASS in this week’s New Statesman from @duncanweldon.bsky.social, who really got what I was trying to achieve when he described it as a “detective story” that “reads more like a thriller”. In print today! www.newstatesman.com/culture/book...
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Edward Luce @edwardluce.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
“Orbán’s banishment is a blow to the fatalism that has become so fashionable in western democracies. There’s nothing inevitable about the march of the populist-oligarch right.” My Swamp Notes with @gideonrachman.bsky.social. Free to read. as.ft.com/r/a16fea82-8...
as.ft.com
Auguries from Hungary
Orbán’s election defeat is a blow to Trump and Maga
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
1/10 Good FT article on the role of Chinese investment in manufacturing in Europe. I worry however that EU policymakers may be framing the issue poorly. This should not be about managing incremental, country-by-country changes in production. www.ft.com/content/873a...
ft.com
China shock 2.0: should Europe repel Chinese investment?
Brussels wants firms opening factories in the EU to transfer knowledge and employ local staff. Will it work?
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Howard French @hofrench.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Reading. www.wsj.com/world/africa...
wsj.com
How the U.S. Is Uniting Libyan Rivals to Squeeze Out Russia
Peace in Libya could unlock oil and mineral wealth, as well as expanding American influence.
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Can’t really shake the feeling that at least one of these numbers suggests some mispricing.
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Benjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 15/04/2026
Very useful comparative oil shock data viz.
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