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Arthur Leichthammer

@aleichthammer.bsky.social
1.4K followers 516 following 221 posts

Policy Fellow Geoeconomics @ Jacques Delors Centre, Berlin

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Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
⏰ You can still register for the upcoming Henrik Enderlein Fellowship Lecture at the @hertieschool.bsky.social. Join us for a conversation on the societal foundations of Europe's #resilience and the role of state capacity in maintaining public trust. @stiftungmercator.bsky.social Sign up now 👇
delorscentre.eu
Henrik Enderlein Fellowship Event
The Henrik Enderlein Fellowship welcomes incoming Fellow Corina Ajder and honours outgoing Fellow Marija Golubeva. An evening of keynotes and discussion.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
So, in the first half of 2026, German exports: 🇺🇸 to the US: −6.1% 🇨🇳 to China: −12.2% 🇪🇺 to the rest of the EU: +7.5% Since Germany is looking for a new growth model, there might be a clue somewhere in here.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Gestern hat Friedrich Merz gemeinsam mit anderem Staats- und Regierungschef gefordert, der Vorschlag zum nächsten EU-Haushalt müsse um „mehrere Hundert Milliarden“ gekürzt werden. Durch die deutsche Debatte geistern dabei wieder ein paar Mondzahlen. Daher nochmal der Versuch einer Einordnung.
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Yann Wernert @wernertyann.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Am 7. Juli entscheidet sich Marine Le Pens politisches Schicksal. Oder doch nicht? Ich durfte dazu ein paar Gedanken für den Spiegel beisteuern. Die Kurzfassung: Le Pen und Bardella brauchen die Loyalität des jeweils anderen, um 2027 zu gewinnen. Es wird schwierig. www.spiegel.de/ausland/mari...
spiegel.de
(S+) Marine Le Pen: Jetzt beginnt für Frankreichs Rechtspopulisten die schwerste Phase
Jordan Bardella, Chef des Rassemblement National, löst sich Schritt für Schritt von seiner Ziehmutter Marine Le Pen. Am 7. Juli entscheidet ein Gericht, wer von beiden ins Rennen um den Élysée geht.
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Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
🛰️ One month ago at the French Embassy Berlin: Building a European Security Architecture in Space. Two panels, one message – Europe must act strategically & together. Swipe through for a few of the standout quotes on Europe's path to autonomy, security, and competitiveness in #space. Link below.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Was bei den Diskussionen hier zum Reformpaket nicht untergehen sollte: Die Bundesregierung stellt sich in der EU-Industriepolitik gerade grundsätzlich neu auf. Neuer Handelsschutz gegen China; EU Präferenz in strategischen Sektoren und Joint Venture Regeln für chinesische Investitionen 1/2
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Merz will die EU anführen– bisher mit gemischtem Erfolg. Kein Gespür für den europäischen Prozess, keine Fähigkeit, Partner einzubinden, so der Vorwurf. Doch das Vorpreschen ist kein Versehen, es ist Methode. Mein neuer Artikel für @internationalepolitik.de: internationalepolitik.de/de/fuehrung-...
internationalepolitik.de
Führung im Alleingang
Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz möchte innerhalb der Europäischen Union wieder mehr Verantwortung übernehmen.
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Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Machtpoker am Golf – Unser Policy Fellow @aleichthammer.bsky.social war gestern Teil der phoenix runde. 🎤 Er unterstreicht: "Wirtschaftliche Abhängigkeiten werden zunehmend als Druckmittel benutzt." Die Straße von Hormus ist dafür ein Extrembeispiel, aber kein Einzelfall. Link in den Kommentaren.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Great to see the Commission is developing a key missing tool that can increase political unity and strengthen EU trade credibility. @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @aslak.bsky.social and I laid it out last year with a transatlantic trade war in mind: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
This summer, the EU plans to finally get serious about Chinese industrial policy. The Buy European rules in the Industrial Accelerator Act could be a key part of the answer. The catch: in their current form, they may do more harm than good. @ph-jaeg.bsky.social and I have some ideas to fix them.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
As EU leaders gather at the European Council tomorrow to discuss mounting Chinese import pressure, a consensus is emerging that industrial overcapacity poses a systemic threat to Europe’s manufacturing base. Far less settled is what the EU should do about it.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Fantastic new OECD data comparing international subsidies in key sectors. "For Chinese firms, almost 60% of their global market share gains can be explained by the subsidies received." Worth keeping in mind when people insist Europe’s competitiveness problem is mainly about overregulation.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
the clock is ticking
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
mieser slay, thu
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Luise Quaritsch @luisequaritsch.eurosky.social · 19/05/2026
The latest reports about the suspension of DMA fines against Google confirm what @aleichthammer.bsky.social and I wrote last year in an opinion piece for @table.media: With Trump, negotiations are never settled. Concessions today only fuel new demands tomorrow. www.delorscentre.eu/de/publikati...
delorscentre.eu
Why the DSA is not up for negotiation
Just days after unveiling details of the transatlantic trade arrangement, Donald Trump threatened retaliatory tariffs over the EU’s digital laws. Brussels must now draw a line: its rulebook is not up ...
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Jannik Jansen @jannikjansen.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Some seats still available for Wednesday's keynote with Spanish FM José Manuel Albares @delorsberlin.bsky.social @hertieschool.bsky.social Madrid's emphasis on multilateralism & international law has been widely noted. A chance to hear the rationale firsthand. www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
At the risk of not being able to visit my friends in the US anymore: the ongoing evidence of full-fledged kleptocracy is insane www.ft.com/content/f921...
ft.com
Donald Trump traded hundreds of millions of dollars in US securities in first quarter
Transactions relating to companies including Nvidia, Palantir, Paramount and Boeing listed in disclosures
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
We are very pleased to welcome Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares next Wednesday for a keynote speech on the future of Europe. The keynote will be followed by a discussion with me and Q&A with the audience. Join us! Spaces are limited, register here: www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...
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Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
📣 How can the EU shape foreign investment? Our latest policy brief by @jannikjansen.bsky.social & @aleichthammer.bsky.social looks at the Industrial Accelerator Act and what it means for Europe’s industrial strategy, zooming in on the principle of selective conditionality. Link in the comments.
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Great to see Sweden, Austria, Estonia, Finland, Germany and NL pushing for stronger rule of law conditionality in next MFF, as reported by FT. Especially good to see their proposal to introduce reverse QMV for sanctions, which I also argued for in this JDC paper: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
This report and @palmapolyak.bsky.social’s recent work on European gigafactories diagnosing the same failure: weakly conditioned investment rules and badly integrated and governed subsidies are causing many incoherences that are undermining EU industrial policy at the moment we need it the most.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Sometimes it takes a whole village to raise a paper (or smth like this) Genuinely proud of this one - many a sleepless nights with @jannikjansen.bsky.social coming to fruition For the German readers amongst you, Handelsblatt covered us exclusively www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
handelsblatt.com
Handelspolitik: Experten kritisieren Abschwächung von EU-Investitionsvorgaben
Die EU will strategische Sektoren vor unlauterem Wettbewerb aus China schützen. Eine dem Handelsblatt vorliegende Analyse zeigt, warum das geplante Gesetz dieses Ziel nicht erreichen könnte.
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
German Foreign Minister Wadephul gave a keynote speech on the EU yesterday titled "Boldly shaping the future of Europe", with several proposals for institutional reform: www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/... Quick thread on the main points:
auswaertiges-amt.de
Rede von Außenminister Johann Wadephul auf der XIII. Adenauer Konferenz - „Mutig die Zukunft Europas gestalten“
Kohle und Stahl, zwei Roh- und Werkstoffe, die über Jahrhunderte sowohl Auslöser als auch Grundlage für Krieg in Europa waren. Sie bildeten 1950 das Fundament eines der erfolgreichsten&...
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Ein Unternehmen gründen in nur 48 Std, das in ganz Europa operieren kann, ohne viel Papierkram oder Kosten - das ist das zentrale Versprechen von EU Inc. Ob EU Inc. ein Gamechanger für Europas Startups wird, darüber spreche ich mit @marleneschoerner.bsky.social: open.spotify.com/episode/3OIB...
open.spotify.com
EU Inc. – Gamechanger für Europas Startups?
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Palma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
There's a global race to secure EV battery gigafactories & reduce reliance on China. But not all clean-tech projects are created equal. Some generate good jobs & domestic capacities, others produce ecological harm & low value-added enclaves. New paper & thread 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Suspending funds is the EU’s strongest tool to safeguard rule of law. In Hungary, release of frozen EU funds was a key factor in Péter Magyar’s campaign. The Commission wants to enshrine RoL conditionality in the next MFF. In a new paper, I take a closer look: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Die @szde.bsky.social berichtet heute Morgen über mein neues Papier zum Vorschlag der EU-Kommission, EU-Gelder im neuen mehrjährigen Haushalt stärker an die Rechtsstaatlichkeit zu knüpfen: www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/unga...
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Marlene Schörner @marleneschoerner.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Young, innovative firms often struggle to grow in Europe, and access to finance is a key issue. Now the EU is setting up a €5bn public-private fund: The Scaleup Europe Fund. In my new policy brief, I discuss whether this is a good idea and how the fund should be designed. Main takeaways 👇
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Yann Wernert @wernertyann.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Kommunalwahlen, Endergebnisse: Frankreich ist mehrheitlich mitte-rechts in der Fläche, links in den Großstädten, und es gab Trostpreise für die Ränder und Renaissance. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse und ihre Folgen: 🧵 www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeur...
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Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
🚨🚨 Unusual with such moral integrity for a European political leader: Spanish PM Pedro Sanches insists that #Spain won't temper criticism of #Trump's attacks on #Iran over fear of reprisals and commercial pressure. 👇 www.politico.eu/article/pedr...
politico.eu
Sánchez says Spain won’t temper criticism of Trump’s attack on Iran over ‘fear of reprisals’
Spanish PM insists he won’t bow to U.S. commercial pressure, as he leads international opposition to the strikes against Tehran.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
🧵 Trump wanting to cut all trade ties with Spain over use of US military bases is getting attention and some say Merz should've piped up more strongly. For now, it's mostly rhetorical pressure ('waffle'), so the damage is limited. If it becomes any more concrete, the EU must decisively rebuke.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act. This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start. Some quick thoughts:
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
This is the way. And I hope more EU leaders follow suit. It would be particuarly good for Merz to have a call with Sanchez today and affirm full German solidarity with Spain.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
IAA (finally) out FDI conditions are lex China pure, covering investments >100m from countries with >40% global production share in i) batteries ii) EVs iii) solar iv) critical raw materials
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Bernd Lange MdEP @bernd-lange.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Decision @ec.europa.eu to go ahead with provisional application #EU #Mercosur is the right one. Many in @europarl.europa.eu agree. We are in an exceptional situation where EP can only vote after ECJ. At the same time, international trade rules are constantly being violated by others. 1/2
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Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
So the Telegraph is taking this well
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
EU provisionally applies Mercosur, as set out in the Council decision last month: ec.europa.eu/commission/p... EP reactions will be interesting.
ec.europa.eu
Statement by President von der Leyen on the EU-Mercosur agreement
Yesterday, Uruguay and Argentina became the first countries to ratify the EU-Mercosur Agreement. Brazil and Paraguay are expected to follow soon. And it is such good news. Because it shows the trust a
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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Incredibly helpful table from @andrewlautz.bsky.social
What's Plan B? Options the Trump Administration Could Pursue if the Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs
If the Supreme Court rules President Trump cannot levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), his administration may look to alternatives to levy new tariffs and/or continue collecting revenue from imports that could include:
Law/Framework
Details
Limitations
Sec. 232 tariffs

Limited to imports deemed a threat to national security.
Requires investigations, which may take months.
Sec. 301 tariffs
Allows for tariffs against countries
USTR determines are engaged in unfair trade practices.
Each tariff is limited to a particular country. Requires investigations and consultations with foreign governments, which may take months.
Sec. 122 tariffs
Allows for tariffs to address
"balance-of-payment" deficits, which can include trade deficits.
Can only last for up to 150 days, and are limited to a 15% ad valorem rate.
Sec. 338 tariffs
Allows for tariffs when the president finds a foreign country is disadvantaging or discriminating against U.S. commerce.
Generally limited to 50% of the value of the goods. There is a
30-day delay after a presidential proclamation before tariffs are triggered.
Sec. 201 tariffs
Allows for tariffs to address harm to
U.S. domestic industries.
May only last for up to 8 years (initial 4 years plus optional 4-year renewal), and are limited to a 50% ad valorem rate. After 1 year, tariffs must phase down
"at regular intervals." Requires investigation from ITC.
Reclassify as "licensing fees"
President Trump suggested that if
SCOTUS strikes down lEEPA tariffs, he may reframe them as licensing fees.
If the same or substantially similar to lEEP tariffs, any lEEPA licensing fees" may be subject to further legal challenges.
Congress codifies tariffs
Congress could codify some or all of President Trump's tariffs in statute.
Unclear if there are majority votes in either chamber to codify tariffs.
Bilateral trade agreements
Presid…
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
www.ft.com/content/d00d... No rest for the wicked, muted market reactions to ruling Don't get your hopes up too high for big tariff policy changes, Trump's lawyers will have prepared for this outcome but could mean increased uncertainty for businesses over the next weeks/months
ft.com
Trump tariffs live: US Supreme Court rules Trump exceeded powers in imposing tariffs
Top court delivering ruling on the legality of sweeping tariff regime
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Philipp Jäger @ph-jaeg.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
The Industrial Accelerator Act, aimed to boost energy-intensive industries and clean tech, faces another delay. Meanwhile, energy-intensive industry continues to struggle. I looked into the data. First, overall poor performance espc. for the chemical industry - although a small recent uptick (1/3)
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
No I don’t think so either. My comment was more related to the fact that the EPP is only scutinizing non-EPP/non-ECR countries. Their targeting of Spain has different roots I think and is also not new, see e.g. the derailing of Riberas hearing for Commissioner by EPP MEPs
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge. Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like. www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
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Rob Francis @robfranciseu.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Commission to table prolongation of the suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US for another 6 months. Current suspension expires on 7 Feb. EC also says it hasn't yet taken a decision on whether to provisionally apply the Mercosur pact borderlex.net/2026/01/23/e...
borderlex.net
EU to extend suspension of US retaliatory tariffs for six months - Borderlex - European trade policy
The European Commission announced it will "soon" table a proposal to prolong the suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the United States by six months, spokesperson Olof Gill said.
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
‼️🩸A bloodbath for the German auto trade with China in 2025: 📉70% drop in mid-sized saloon car exports 📉38% drop in large engine cars 📉39% fall in small ones 📉54% drop in small station wagons 📉23% for larger ones
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Marlene Schörner @marleneschoerner.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
You may have missed it amidst the chaos of the last few days, but there is a new high-level EU report in town: A Franco-German task force led by Jörg Kukies and Christian Noyer presented recommendations to tackle the scale-up financing gap. Here is what it says and why you should care about it.
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Hendrik-Jan @slowpokedj.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Europeans after managing to prevent the collapse of NATO for another 1-2 weeks… #Europe #Rutte
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Everyone is talking about the EU’s supposed trade bazooka -but understanding how it would actually work is a different matter. For those who want to dig into the details, Arthur has you covered with a brilliant thread.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
I'm with you - actually I believe the comitology procedure makes it even more difficult to pass Council QMV vote Having said that, in an evolving conflict there cannot be fixed previously decided measures and it is illusory to think COM would move strongly against MS consortium in response measures
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
🧵 Trump’s Greenland brinkmanship puts the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument back on the table. Few cases fit economic coercion more cleanly. But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️
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