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Scott St. George

@scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com
6.9K followers 817 following 438 posts

Head of Weather & Climate Research at WTW, a global insurance advisory firm headquartered in London. Alexander von Humboldt Fellow | Geological Survey of Canada alum | Formerly Associate Prof at University of Minnesota | Made in 🇨🇦 | Based in MSP

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Reposted by Scott St. George
Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I’ve updated the long-running (starts 1866) CRU Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This lets us compare the currently developing El Niño with earlier events including 1877-78. 2026 has developed very quickly, similar to the 1997-98 one. Thick line is 3-month running mean, with y-axis reversed.
1866-present timeseries of Climatic Research Unit SOI with some major El Niño events marked.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Pricing El Niño is not the same as preventing its loss of life. Yet, many of those acting on its forecasts are using them to move money, not people, out of harm’s way." My editorial for Science on why hedging El Niño is not the same as adapting to it: www.science.org/eprint/DU6FR...
science.org
Hedging El Niño isn’t the same as adapting to it
Record-setting warm waters slosh eastward across the tropical Pacific, forming El Niño. This recurrent climate pattern reconfigures severe weather worldwide, and with it, the global economy. Scientist...
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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
In the eastern North Pacific south of Mexico, Hurricane Polo has rapidly intensified from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just over a day and continues to barrel toward category 5 strength.
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Emily Atkin @emorwee.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
A few weekends ago I went to Miami and attended 9 open houses in extremely high-risk flood areas to see what agents are telling prospective buyers about them. Here is my journey
heated.world
The open houses at the edge of disaster
What are buyers being told about climate risk in Miami? I posed as one to find out.
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 16/09/2026
I am just *thrilled* scientists are using AI to make slides for their research talks. It's now so easy to make overstuffed, incomprehensible slides that are totally ineffective as visual aids. Anybody who tries to communicate clearly with simple visuals is going to look even better by comparison.
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
How has Nepal's Langtang region, which recently experienced a devastating flood and debris flow event, changed over time? Warming changes things -- scientists and colleagues from Nepal explain. smallearth.org.np/activities/w...
Plot showing a steady increase in seasonal temperatures in the Langtang region of Nepal since the 1940s.
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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
We started a trade war with these people because the president, who has some sort of degenerative brain disease with visible bruises on his hand's injection site that the press doesn't talk about, was bored.
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Emily Cassidy @enviroem.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
As of April 2026, nearly 80% of the U.S. beef cattle herd was in areas suffering from drought (according to Rabobank). A much higher share than the past 40 years. Seems bad. media.rabobank.com/asset/0f14b2...
Chart showing the share of the beef herd in moderate or worse drought, from 1986 to present. In April 2026, almost 80% of the beef cow herd was in drought, a much higher share than in years past.
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Dr Dan Shugar 🇨🇦 @watershedlab.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
By now we know that it was not JUST glacier ice, but a tremendous bedrock landslide that collapsed in Nepal. @planet.com satellite imagery shows a fairly large (0.17km2) lake has formed, which could release a sizeable flood if it were hit by further rockfalls. This is concerning for rescue workers.
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 28/08/2026
Sam is exactly bang on about this. So many geological or botanical estimates of hazards cannot be related to metrics that are meaningful to decision makers. Unless paleodatasets can meet that threshold, it's really freaking hard to influence a decision.
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Jerry @jeratthemovies.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Waking up to a real-life Star War.
The opening crawl from STAR WARS: EPISODE 1 - THE PHANTOM MENACE.
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WIRED @wired.com · 21/08/2026
“People have talked about the Colorado River crisis for decades—we’re now in it,” says one expert. “Everyone you talk to is like, ‘Shit, man.’” www.wired.com/story/the-su...
wired.com
The Super El Niño Won’t Fix the West’s Water Crisis
“People have talked about the Colorado River crisis for decades—we’re now in it,” says one expert. “Everyone you talk to is like, ‘Shit, man.’”
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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 made landfall in #Miami on the morning of September 18, 1926. I am publishing this post one month ahead of the anniversary to share some new wind speed maps I created, which I hope can be useful to the community as the centennial approaches.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com
100th anniversary of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane
Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 14/08/2026
Neat new survey of what appears to be the worst historical floods in Europe, from the PAGES Floods Working Group:
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Mark Parrington @mparrington.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Increasing Indonesia fire emissions & regional smoke transport since 1 August 2026 at the start of a potentially extreme fire season enhanced by El Niño, visualised by #CopernicusAtmosphere Fire Emissions Watch apps.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/fire-emissio... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 08/08/2026
Signs of home.
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Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
This is our climate change reality. BC is at the sharp end of the climate change spear in terms of fire in Canada. Graph below shows annual area burned in BC 1950-2026. Top 6 years have been since 2017 and BC has experienced more area burned during 2017-2026(red) as compared to 1950-2026 (green).
Annual area burned in BC 1950-2026. Recent years are ciffc data
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Lauren Rosenthal @laurenthal.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
The fast-growing "Super El Niño" is looking like a potential macroeconomic shock for parts of the Global South. Add in geopolitical conflict and...the timing isn't great. New story out from @bloomberg.com 🧵
A chart showing estimated impact of rainfall anomalies on headline CPI by country, with 1.87 percentage point boost from drought in Indonesia and 1.85pp boost from drought in the Philippines
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Reuters @reuters.com · 30/07/2026
US government map of Africa mislabels every country at global conference reut.rs/4x9eTCW
reut.rs
US government map of Africa mislabels every country at global conference
A U.S. government map of Africa mislabeled every country during a State Department presentation at ‌a global conference taking place in Brazil this week, causing a stir among attendees who took screenshots and posted them online.
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Kate Marvel @drkatemarvel.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Fires depend on: ♨️ Weather ⚡ Ignition 🍂 Fuel 🧯 Suppression In North America: ♨️ Climate change = hotter and drier ⚡Ignition = no real change 🍂 Fire deficit = more fuel 🧯Warmer nights = suppression is hard What should we do? 📉 Cut emissions ✅ 🔥 Controlled burns ✅ 🍁 Rake more? ❌ 🇨🇦 Be mean to Canada ❌
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Timely... "Canada’s 2023 wildfire smoke caused a 2.8 percent drop in solar power generation, costing two billion dollars" Follows the @costasamaras.com rule where you know exactly what you get from the title Haven't gotten to do this in a minute: Physical risk 🤝 Transition risk
nature.com
Canada’s 2023 wildfire smoke caused a 2.8 percent drop in solar power generation, costing two billion dollars - Communications Earth & Environment
Wildfire smoke caused a 6.38 ± 8.86 terawatt hour solar power loss (2.8 percent) and about 1.88-billion-dollar cost, according to an Earth system model comparing simulations with and without wildfire ...
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Tom Di Liberto @tdiliberto.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
El Nino thread! 🌊 My Key Takeaways: 1. This event is well on its way to being a very strong event rarely seen in the last 75 years. 2. Right now, it's most likely not the strongest on record. 3. The warming of the nino3.4 region due to climate change does not add to El Nino strength!
Line graph showing ocean temperatures in nino3.4 region. Current temperatures are record breaking hot
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Bill Lindeke @blindeke.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Good, broad piece on US / ICE automakers getting demolished in Australia. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07...
abc.net.au
Automakers in shock as China takes over
In June, a bulk carrier made an unprecedented delivery of EVs to Australia, sounding an ominous warning to the world's automakers.
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 23/07/2026
I’m a little embarrassed to post this for the academic crowd, but in case anybody is interested about how things are sometimes done over here: “A few basic things I’ve learned about catastrophe and climate risk modeling after four years in the insurance industry.” www.wtwco.com/en-us/insigh...
wtwco.com
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Ian James @ianjames.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Lake Mead and Lake Powell have fallen to their lowest combined levels on record, a grim milestone in the Colorado River's deepening crisis www.latimes.com/environment/...
latimes.com
'A five-alarm fire': Western reservoirs that supply California fall to record low levels
The Colorado River's largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, have declined to the lowest combined levels on record. Researchers say this underscores the urgent need to cut water use.
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Beach holidays in the climate crisis, France. As an old viral quote said: “Climate change will manifest as a series of disasters viewed through phones with footage that gets closer and closer to where you live until you’re the one filming it.”
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Canadian History Ehx @cdnhistoryehx.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
James Doohan wasn’t just Montgomery "Scotty" Scott, he wasa Canadian who served his country and landed on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day. Then he turned to acting, was trained by Lorne Greene and even helped develop the Klingon language. This is his story. 📸 NBC 🧵 1/12
James Doohan as Scotty sits at a control console aboard the USS Enterprise, wearing a red Starfleet uniform with a black collar and a delta insignia on his chest. He leans slightly forward with one hand resting on the console, his dark hair neatly combed to the side. Behind him are colorful control panels and futuristic set walls characteristic of the original Star Trek series bridge.
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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 18/07/2026
I had a reporter ask me if there was any connection between the fires in Canada and the flooding in Texas. I said: of course there is a connection. The connection is increasing temperatures.
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Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
List of words to use instead of "very" is actually very helpful. buff.ly/2tz4fu4
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Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 17/07/2026
Probably more helpful to think of them not so much as “Canadian wildfires” but rather “climate change wildfires currently consuming Canada”
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Michael Wara @michaelwara.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
As wildfire smoke blankets tens of millions of Americans, schools need a rethink of how they plan for and react to wildfire smoke events. Jessica Yu on our team spent two years deploying monitors in school classrooms to measure smoke intrusion into individual rooms.
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Minnesota Star Tribune @startribune.com · 16/07/2026
The air quality in Minneapolis is among the worst in the world. Here’s how to avoid exposure to the fine particles that can damage your health.
bit.ly
Wildfire smoke is blanketing Minnesota. Here’s how to stay safe.
The air quality in Minneapolis is among the worst in the world. Here’s how to avoid exposure to the fine particles that can damage your health.
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 16/07/2026
Over the past few hours, things have turned pretty grim here in Minneapolis. "Minnesota repeatedly broke its record for worst air quality on Wednesday." www.mprnews.org/story/2026/0...
mprnews.org
Record smoke levels north, high heat south across Minnesota
We break up smoke, wind, rain and temperatures into four sections so you can scroll to what you want to read about.
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Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Our 2026 fire season was quiet, and just like the rapid transition from winter to summer (bypassing spring) in much Canada, our fire season went from quiet to crazy full on. Rapid increase in area burned (and smoke) from fires in the NWT and QC and more recently ON. See hot spot graph below
Estimated area burned in Canada from satellite hot spots 
https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/en/summary
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 15/07/2026
Behold, the face of someone who knows he is definitely not allowed on the couch, nevermind reclining on the pillow…!
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SAG-AFTRA @sagaftra.org · 10/07/2026
Meta now lets anyone use your Instagram photos in AI images without your consent. SAG-AFTRA recommends that #SagAftraMembers (and all Instagram users) opt-OUT of Meta’s new AI image generation tool, Muse Image. Take action to protect your likeness.
If you want to avoid AI generations of your Instagram posts without switching your account to private, you’ll have to dig into the app’s settings. Open the Instagram app, tap your profile, and then tap the three lines in the top-right corner of the screen. Then, scroll down to the Sharing and reuse tab. Here is where you should see a section labeled Allow people to use your content on Instagram and with AI features on Meta, with a toggle for Posts and one for Reels.
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Also if you are talking to researchers. And it’s worse if you say so while pointing out its obvious flaws. All this tells us is that you are lazy and you don’t care.
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Jim Kane @kanejim.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Wherein private equity closed-end funds discover something called physical risk.
bloomberg.com
Private Equity Turns to Heat Detectives as Climate Risks Intensify
For decades, investment models at the largest private equity funds relied on assumptions of relatively stable weather patterns. Now frequent extreme events are creating new threats for their portfolio...
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 08/07/2026
I’ll admit it, I bought it for the label. #treering
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 06/07/2026
those look like some big storms about to rumble cottage country across the Winnipeg River basin.
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John Fleck @jfleck.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Currently 85 miles of river drying on New Mexico's Middle Rio Grande. a) That's a lot. b) We literally pay people to go out and look at the river every quarter of a mile (? I think this is the right spacing. ?) to see if the river is dry. What a weird job.
Column chart showing maximum extent of annual drying on New Mexico's Middle Rio Grande since 2002. 2026 is the highest column on the chart at 85 miles.
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MU-Peter Shimon 🀄 @mu-peter.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
We must be ready for this... but things are changing fast. Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk🧪 www.nature.com/articles/s41... Poleward shifts in hail hazard may attenuate yield increases from similar shifts in crop regions under climate change.
Multimodel, multiproxy mean normalized annual hail-prone days over the historical period.
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Scott St. George @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com · 28/06/2026
I'm saddened by the news that Rex Adams has passed. Rex was always so unfailingly positive and generous and had an outsized influence on generations of tree-ring scientists. I will always be grateful for him treating my mom like a VIP when she visited me at LTRR. A "fun guy", always and forever.
A photo of Rex Adams, who mentored countless tree-ring scientists through his position at the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona.
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Tits McGee @scientits.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
‘Say yes and never do it’ Mel Brooks knew how to deal with the studios
You have some wonderful stories of basically getting away with stuff at the studios.

I’d learned one very simple trick: say yes. Simply say yes. Like Joseph E. Levine, on “The Producers,” said, “The curly-haired guy—he’s funny looking. Fire him.” He wanted me to fire Gene Wilder. And I said, “Yes, he’s gone. I’m firing him.” I never did. But he forgot. After the screening of “Blazing Saddles,” the head of Warner Bros. threw me into the manager’s office, gave me a legal pad and a pencil, and gave me maybe twenty notes. He would have changed “Blazing Saddles” from a daring, funny, crazy picture to a stultified, dull, dusty old Western. He said, “No farting.” I said, “It’s out.”That’s probably the most famous scene in the movie, the campfire scene.

I know. He said, “You can’t punch a horse.” I said, “You’ll never see it again.” I kept saying, “You’re absolutely right. It’s out!” Then, when he left, I crumpled up all his notes, and I tossed it in the wastepaper basket. And John Calley, who was running [production at] Warner Bros. at the time, said, “Good filing.” That was the end of it. You say yes, and you never do it.

That’s great advice for life.

It is. Don’t fight them. Don’t waste your time struggling with them and trying to make sense to them. They’ll never understand.
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Joe Levy @colddirt.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Love exploring climate change in the geological record? Want to teach about climate change with fabulous undergraduates? Yearning to advance your paleoclimate research in a supportive, scholarship-forward environment? Then come work with us at Colgate University! ⚒️🧪❄️🧪🌊🧪 apply.interfolio.com/188708
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Julie Edwards @julieedtree.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
More on why connecting paleo records to hazard assessment matters, from the recent 2026 VICS conference in St Andrews: adaptresearchwriting.com/2026/06/24/v...
adaptresearchwriting.com
Volcanoes, climate shocks, and the next global systemic-risk trigger: Reporting on the VICS Conference 2026
By Matt Boyd (with Mike Cassidy reporting on the workshop) Photo by Yosh Ginsu on Unsplash TLDR/Summary The 2026 Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) Conference brought together the VICS …
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Hey earthquake types - Swiss Re is hiring an entry grad level earthquake catastrophe modeler. Strong science shop if this is your thing:
linkedin.com
#hiring #catastrophemodeling #earthquake #reinsurance | Adam Hatzikyriakou
We are hiring! The Cat Perils team at Swiss Re is looking for an enthusiastic Natural Catastrophe Specialist with experience in earthquake modeling. This position is located in Armonk, NY. Do you wan...
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 24/06/2026
A few folks have asked me about *home* insurance inflation in Alberta, too. It's also ... just ... wow. 😲
Home insurance prices in Alberta have far outpaced every other province

Consumer price index for homeowners' and mortgage insurance: January 2002 to May 2026

An index value of 100 is equal to the average price for insurance in Canada over all 12 months of 2002.

Alberta is at 650 in May 2026. Next closest province is Saskatchewan at about 520. Canada is at 370. Quebec is at 245. The lowest is PEI at 225.


Source: Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01

Created with Datawrapper
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Madison Condon @madisoncondon.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
reupping this: this is a paper I would very much love to read. seems like certain things (european temp extremes) are happening earlier than certain entities forecasted while other impacts (retreat in glacier national park) have been slower and would loooove to read a meta analysis of why, etc.
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Climate types interested in risk: go join the great new climate team at USAA. Remote eligible if you're away from an office:
usaa.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com
Climate Scientist Senior – P&C Climate Risk & Exposure Analytics
Why USAA? At USAA, our mission is to empower our members to achieve financial security through highly competitive products, exceptional service and trusted advice. We seek to be the #1 choice for the ...
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