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Samuel Hurtado

@samuelhurtado.bsky.social
221 followers 56 following 466 posts

Head of Stress Testing division at Banco de España. Macroeconomics, machine learning and worrying about a world full of post-viral sequelae. He/him.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Prediction market and sports gambling companies are the new tobacco companies. How long will we allow their depredations continue to destroy lives? Tobacco advertising was banned decades ago. Why are gambling ads permitted to stain every sports broadcast? It's sickening.
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Conor Browne @brownecfm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
A friend has Covid right now. They have lost their sense of smell and they're having cognitive problems. This hit me today, as it often does: we made, and continue to make, a huge collective mistake in allowing a virus that impacts the brain to transmit unmitigated globally.
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Kristian G. Andersen @kgandersen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Pre-2023: Make sure you have no typos in your CV!!! Post-2023: Make sure you have typos in your CV!!!
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FT Edit @ftedit.ft.com · 28/09/2026
For decades, London property seemed like a one-way bet. No longer. This is how London became the property market’s black sheep ... Read the story on #FTEdit 👉 ft.trib.al/r0eTvmr
Line chart showing London property prices significantly underperforming the rest of the UK since 2016. By 2026, London’s index was around 110, while regional indices ranged from roughly 125 to 160.Bar chart comparing 10-year changes in prime residential house prices across global cities to the first half of 2026. Tokyo rose more than 150%, while London was the weakest performer, with prices falling about 15%.
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Nobody is ever going to call it that, but also: how can these people be transphobes?
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Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
Stuart Turville @turville.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
During the pandemic phase many saw its ability to infect the lung was associated with severe disease and higher mortality. What we are seeing is a continued stepwise movement away from the lung and consolidation in the upper respiratory tract....
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Stefan Pöhlmann @snpoehlm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
🧪Where is SARS-CoV-2 circulating? Below is a collection of useful surveillance sites from around the world - wastewater, genomic and respiratory-virus data - that may help you assess virus circulation in your area and make informed decisions about protection.
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
With data released today from the public sentinel system, my estimate is that around 4% of the population in Spain had covid in the past week. Growth of the underlying estimators is basically vertical. So far, similar to 2024 with the JN.1 descendants (I think it was mainly KP.3 and LP.8.1).
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Steve Peers @stevepeers.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Heres the text of the 2026 treaty on Greenland www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st... Hard to see how it differs fundamentally from the 1951 agreement avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century... The most one could say is that it's implementing and elaborating upon the previous agreement
whitehouse.gov
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE KINGDOM OF DENMARK TOGETHER WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF GREENLAND
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE KINGDOM OF DENMARK TOGETHER WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF
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Schrödinger's Sneetch Belly @rtodkelly.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Please know that this is one of my few legitimate areas of actual, high-level professional expertise: Kicking the healthiest people off of a health insurance program will bankrupt it. Not 'could;' not 'might,' not 'probably," but absolutely will, with mathematical certainty.
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Indrapramit Das @indrapramitdas.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
What else could this be but genocide. Any alleged progressives denying it still have chosen the side of imperialism, colonialism, and fascism.
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Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول @faredalmahlool.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This video was filmed in Palestine. My heart struggles to comprehend such cruelty and the heartbreaking disregard for human life. No human being should have to endure this.
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Conor Browne @brownecfm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Articles like these are emblematic of the institutional amnesia surrounding Covid-19. A pathogen that emerged less than seven years ago, which can cause fatigue during the acute infection and as a common long-term effect, not even mentioned. Conspicuously absent. www.nbcnews.com/health/menta...
nbcnews.com
Why are Americans so tired? CDC report highlights who’s feeling it most
Fatigue is one of the most common concerns reported in primary care visits, yet not much attention is given to how often adults in the U.S. are coping with it.
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Data this week was flat once again, but it refers to 10 days ago, and my anecdotal evidence says this has accelerated A LOT in the last week. Everyone is sick suddenly (ok maybe one in 5 or 10 people but that's a massive increase and it has been all in one week).
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Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 18/09/2026
I spend my week crossing london on a bike and increasingly that means cycling alongside Wayve/Waymo robotaxis. it’s uncomfortable. they give you so much space, don’t do a close pass while accelerating as lights go red. So unnerving if you cycle on assumption everyone’s mental and wants to kill you.
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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Enormous amounts of intelligence has been expended in trying to interpret this man's actions and words into some set of coherent strategies or plans. He's an idiot who doesn't understand anything. That's all.
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
PJ.2.1 ~5% overall right now, but very likely to increase in the coming weeks. And given its very strong ACE2 binding, I expect PJ.2.1 to acquire one or more antibody-evading mutations, which should accelerate its growth. Question is whether or not that will enable it to drive a large winter wave.
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Kristian G. Andersen @kgandersen.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
More reporting on how scientists were trying to create bioweapons and how that was blocked by Anthropic. Again, that is not correct - Anthropic blocked what was likely basic research. I understand the concerns and the difficulty, but hyped and inaccurate reporting does not help. nyti.ms/4rdk6rJ
nyti.ms
A.I. Queries From Abroad Raise Fears of a Biological Weapons Race (Gift Article)
Today’s chatbots aren’t likely to help lone actors invent a deadly pathogen, experts say. But newer models, trained in biology, may need stronger safeguards.
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Kristian G. Andersen @kgandersen.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Good read. What truly baffles me seeing this "AI-designed-printed-in-the-lab-bioweapon will kill us all" guff is the fact that we have *the* biggest, out-of-control, Gain-of-Function experiment, in BSL-0, already running rampant in the US. In cattle 🐮. Yet, 🦗. www.theatlantic.com/health/2026/...
theatlantic.com
The AI Pandemic Isn’t On Its Way
Yet plenty of others might be, thanks to evolution.
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Great thread on the PJ.2.1 variant situation, what we do & do not know, & where it stands now. Worth emphasizing that a recent Yunlong Cao preprint found PJ.2.1 has very high ACE2 affinity, meaning that, like BA.2.75 or BA.2.86, it has plenty of space to acquire new Ab-evading spike mutations.
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JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Regional trends are shown here from Biobot. I think we are about a week from the peak, as trends typically reverse a few weeks after schools return. We will see if that pattern from previous years holds up on this late wave. Not shown: much bigger 2024 summer wave reaching 1000.
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
With everyone talking about PISA, it's a good time to bring up one of my favorite (scariest) papers about covid sequelae
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The Author, Séamas O'Reilly @seamas.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Have seen this Nature piece about the effects of X's algorithm mentioned again and it bears repeating; exposure to a right wing algorithm makes you - measurably and predictably - more right wing, even after you stop using it. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
The political effects of X’s feed algorithm - Nature
Among users initially on a chronological feed, 7 weeks of exposure to X’s algorithmic feed in 2023 shifted political attitudes and account-following behaviour in a more conservative direction compared...
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Roland Pease @peaseroland.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The fuller climate context of the Nepal/Tibet flood catastrophe, with numbers.
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Conor Browne @brownecfm.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
'Our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 infection can activate an immune program that closely resembles those involved in established autoimmune disorders...'. I have seen this so many times now. New-onset autoimmune disease following COVID-19.
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Banco de España Research @bde-research.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
📢 Call for Papers | 7th Conference on Diversity, Equity & Inclusion in Economics, Finance and Central Banking | 22-23 March 2027 Submit your research on diversity, equity and inclusion by 30 October 2026 ➡️ www.bancaditalia.it/media/agenda... #bdeResearch
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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
CDC measles data now clearly being interfered with. They had a "delay" on their regular Friday update. Over the weekend, they deleted two deaths reported by Pennsylvania DOH (they were there last week) and quietly stopped updates of state-level and age-level case maps. www.cdc.gov/measles/data...
cdc.gov
Measles Cases and Outbreaks
Find the latest numbers of confirmed U.S. measles cases. CDC updates this page weekly.
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
OK let's test this thing
testing deepseek harness
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Walking Eagle News @theeagleist.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
BREAKING: sucks to have stuff renamed by white people, doesn’t it?
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Yesterday's covid data here in Spain: it could be noise, it could be an actual trend that reverts soon, but: things are not looking great anymore
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Tom Joscelyn @tomjoscelyn.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
This is appalling. These Haitians were here legally under the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program. The Trump regime spread racist lies, ended the program, declared them illegal and rounded them up in chains for deportation. Now DHS is proudly posting videos of Black Haitians in chains.
Trump’s Department of Homeland Security posted a video of Black Haitians in chains after ending the TPS program
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CEMFI @cemfi.es · 26/08/2026
CEMFI is inviting applications for Research Assistant positions www.cemfi.es/all_news_blo...
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Angie Rasmussen @angierasmussen.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Dolly Parton saved many, many people’s lives with her contributions to the Moderna vaccine and that is what I will remember about her more than anything. We should all hope to do this much good. www.knoxnews.com/story/entert...
knoxnews.com
Dolly Parton gave the world the gift of reading and a COVID-19 vaccine
Dolly Parton's philanthropy extended to any cause anywhere she felt she could make a difference, big or small. That’s just who she was.
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Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 24/08/2026
i do think a lot of mainstreamers have missed the ball on how musk has moved past "rich guy with funny opinions on race science" and into "literally just a nazi"
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Incredibly concerning indeed
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Kevin Wilson @kwilsonhfx.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Shocking.
NTSB graph showing the relationship between miles biked per person per year and cyclists killed per billion miles biked. There's an obvious negative trend (people bike more in place where it's safer to do so.
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Dorian McILROY @dmcilroy.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Best hypothesis out there.
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
If I understand it correctly, this means in Q2 OpenAi had $3 of expenses for every $1 of revenue. And that's one of the two companies that are holding the whole sector on their shoulders.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
The cancer mortality hazard among pilots and flight attendants. An analysis of 503 occupations, including ground-based aviation workers and nuclear technologists, found that pilot and flight attendants had the highest proportion of radiation-related cancer deaths jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
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Jørgen Heszlein @heszlein.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
New estimate of Elon Musk’s death toll just dropped www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
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Michelle Wille @duckswabber.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Evolution of two B3.13 viruses during infection and airborne transmission in ferrets. Within host genetic diversity low, w drift + weak purifying selection. Strong transmission bottlenecks. No mammalian adaptation. 👉 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
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Michelle Wille @duckswabber.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Analysis of the first two HPAI genomes from WA - shows independant incursions and that viruses are most closely related to those from Heard Island. 👉 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
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Carl Zimmer @carlzimmer.com · 11/08/2026
How viruses travel around planets. A map of showing the arrival of H5N1 2.3.4.4b influenza in Australia. Preprint: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
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Trish Greenhalgh @trishgreenhalgh.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
A hill I will die on: RCTs of air cleaning technologies are a stupid idea. Well said Nicola Boyd. Via @joevipondmd.bsky.social mattersofperspective.substack.com/p/air-cleani...
mattersofperspective.substack.com
Air cleaning technologies and the battle against Randomised Control Trials
RCTs are not a 'gold standard' methodology where we can actually measure outcomes
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Solid Evidence @solidevidence.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Taken at face value, the lineage has 481 mutations. I had trouble determining what exactly it was derived from before, but nextstrain now says that it is a Delta-derivative, so a 4-5 year infection. 2/
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Alatar The Blue @doctorimpossible.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Sadly this distraction is working well for them. I’m sorry Dr Faucis reward for all his hard work is being used by people working for a rapist
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Dr Rasu Shrestha @rasushrestha.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
I stand with Dr. Anthony Fauci …because I value EVIDENCE over conspiracy, DATA over rumors, and SCIENCE over politics. No public official is beyond criticism, but there’s a difference between honest scientific guidance and misinformation. I’ll choose evidence EVERY time. #medsky #publichealth
I stand with Dr. Anthony Fauci because I value evidence over conspiracy, data over rumors, and science over politics. No public official is beyond criticism, but there’s a difference between honest scientific guidance and misinformation. I’ll choose evidence every time.
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Angie Rasmussen @angierasmussen.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Sunday: I’ll do a quick fact check of this insane RFK Jr interview Monday: Up to 40 lies & it was only a 3 min clip! Tuesday: Ready to defend my 2nd PhD thesis on fascist quackery That's why @saveamericamvmt.bsky.social & I are holding him accountable rasmussenretorts.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-is-...
rasmussenretorts.substack.com
RFK Jr is Asking to Be Proven Wrong Again So Here Are 40 Examples From Just One CNN Interview
He's just creating work for us at this point
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Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Alibaba's Qwen-3.8-max is really impressive. It beats the biggest and newest models from OpenAI and Google in some benchmarks, but that's not what impresses me most. They entered it into a coding competition and it beat 87% of human teams.
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Update on PJ.2.1, the saltation variant originating in Ontario & found in wastewater in ~10 US states. 11/75 sequences today from New York are PJ.2.1. Eight of 11 sequences are identical, with the three others differing by 1 nuc mut. Such limited diversity typically indicates rapid spread. 1/5
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