iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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West European Politics @wepsocial.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

🌍 Is climate opinion in Britain splitting along party lines? @gidoncohen.bsky.social and Nick Vivyan track British panel data, 2014–2025: party support now explains far more of Britons' climate attitudes, driven above all by Reform UK supporters. 🔗 doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Description of the article "Political polarisation of climate-policy-relevant attitudes: longitudinal evidence from Britain" by Gidon Cohen and Nick Vivyan, published online first in West European Politics.

Three panels plotting partisan polarisation scores for three climate-policy-relevant survey items in Britain between 2014 and 2025. All three trend clearly upward, with shaded 90% credible intervals around the fitted lines.

Estimated trends in the average correlation between climate-policy-relevant attitudes and four other attitude domains between 2014 and 2025, with shaded 90% credible intervals. Correlations with EU and immigration attitudes are the highest and rise fastest; the correlation with economic left-right attitudes is the lowest and rises least.

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Nick Young @nickofnz.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

It’s just hot air. No new oil or gas reserves have been found in years, despite hundreds of millions being spent on the search. The future is renewable wind and solar — and everyone knows it. #YesterdaysMan

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

In 2023, over 80% of left-leaning New Zealanders wanted more government spending on the environment. Among right-leaning voters, it was 31%. The environment is mostly the left's turf. So is there any room for a right-leaning "blue-green" party? A 🧵 on the NZES data. (1/6) #nzpol #environment

Line chart titled "Spending on the environment increasingly divides left and right", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by left–right self-placement, NZES 1996–2023. The left line rises from 57% in 1996 to 84% in 2023. The right line is consistently lowest, near 26% in 1996, climbing to 48% in 2017 before falling to 31% in 2023. The centre line sits between the two, ending at 51% in 2023.

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Abbey @abbeyarletto.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

When reality surpasses fiction! Top: fictional forecast for August 2050, broadcast by French TV in 2014 to warn about the consequences of global warming. Bottom: Real French forecast for yesterday, June 22, 2026.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

At a time when democracies elsewhere are under strain, New Zealanders are notably content with theirs: 71% were satisfied with how democracy works after the 2023 election, and that's held near 70% for 30 years. I looked at NZES and CSES data. Short 🧵 (1/6) #nzpol

Diverging stacked bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders are satisfied with how democracy works", using NZES 2023 data and excluding "don't know" responses. The top panel, "Satisfaction with the way democracy works", shows 5% of respondents not at all satisfied and 24% not very satisfied (left of centre), against 63% fairly satisfied and 8% very satisfied (right of centre) — 71% satisfied overall. The bottom panel, "Democracy always preferable to other forms of government", shows 1% strongly disagree, 4% somewhat disagree and 10% neither, against 29% somewhat agree and 56% strongly agree — about 85% agreeing democracy is preferable.

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Kevin Hague @kevinhague.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

It strikes me, on the balance of probabilities, that 1. Fonterra and Z sent their lobbying to Matt Burgess’ personal email address in order to try to avoid public scrutiny; 2. They were given that address to facilitate avoiding public scrutiny;

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Dr Dean Knight @drdeanknight.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

A couple of quick reckons on the move to oust non-elected committee members from local authorities. www.beehive.govt.nz/release/coun...

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Another signal (if we needed any more) that NZ First are positioning themselves as a radical right party. Unlike most other countries, though, there is no "firewall" that means centrist parties will refuse to go into coalition with them. #nzpol www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...

stuff.co.nz

Party’s former leader to stand for NZ First in this year’s election

Elliot Ikilei, the former leader of the New Conservative Party, will stand as a candidate in this year’s election for NZ First.

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Sam @samd.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Zohran just cited Minneapolis, Austin, and Auckland as cities that lowered housing costs via upzoning certified ball knowledge, Auckland is a deep YIMBY cut

Zohran Mamdani with local councilmember and government officials

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

This was a really basic security hole created by a company contracted to handle some of the most sensitive personal data It's not an isolated incident - assume everything you give to a 3rd party online will be compromised (Which is why online voting is a really bad idea and we should never do it)

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Of 29 countries surveyed, NZ has the lowest opposition to immigration — one of only four where the average respondent leans toward wanting more, not less. What's behind the opposition that does exist? I dug into NZES and ISSP data — part 2 of a two-part series. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

Dot plot titled "New Zealanders most open to immigration globally", ranking 29 countries by mean response to 'The number of immigrants should be...' on a 1–5 scale where 1 means increased a lot, 3 means remain the same, and 5 means reduced a lot (ISSP 2023 National Identity IV). A dashed line marks 3. New Zealand (highlighted in blue) scores 2.87 — the lowest of the 29 countries. It is one of four below the midpoint of 3 (with Thailand 2.88, Lithuania 2.89, and Taiwan 2.94), meaning that in those countries the average respondent leans toward wanting more immigration. At the other extreme, Russia scores 4.17, followed by Hungary (4.09), Greece (4.06), and the Netherlands (4.03). Australia scores 3.49, Canada 3.48, and the United States 3.51.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Quite interesting to see the differences between Stuff and NZH comments on stories about the public service cutbacks. Polar opposites. #nzpol

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

🧵 NZ First and ACT are both running on immigration in 2026. But only 0.6% of voters named it their most important issue at the last election — and in 2023, NZers were more pro-immigration than in most years. I analysed 30 years of NZES data. (1/6) #nzpol threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/immigra...

threelongyears.crawley.nz

Immigration has rarely driven NZ elections. Could 2026 buck the trend?

With immigration back on the political agenda, I use NZ Election Study data to examine how attitudes differ by party — from NZ First's consistent opposition to ACT's divided base. Immigration has rare...

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Maybe putting everything into the cloud and creating one giant single point of failure was not such a good idea after all.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Interesting comparing the current stage of 2023 and 2026 electoral cycles. At this point: In 2023 (Hipkins/Labour) - policy bonfire In 2026 (Luxon/Nat/Act/NZF) - institutional bonfire #nzpol

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Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

This week, the Supreme Court finally killed off the Voting Rights Act of 1965. I've spent the past decade studying the VRA and the attacks on it, so I thought I would offer some historical perspective, and where I think we're headed. This will be a long thread; buckle up.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

National won a higher share of women voters than men in 2023 — 41% vs 37%. That runs against the usual pattern, where women tend to lean left. I analysed three decades of NZES data on the gender voting gap in NZ. There is a gender gap, but it's small. 🧵 #nzpol

Party vote by gender, 2023. Women were more likely to vote National (41% vs 37%), Labour (28% vs 26%), and Green (12% vs 10%). Men were more likely to vote ACT (10% vs 6%) and NZ First (7% vs 6%).

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Dr. Cassandra Mudgway @legallyfeminist.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Just published! Writing with the amazing @sarahhbickerton.bsky.social we unpack online misogyny in NZ, what laws look like right now and set out our vision for online safety regulations that support women's human rights. Was wonderful working with Sarah on this piece!

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Dr Dean Knight @drdeanknight.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

This heavy use of urgency — shortcuts in the parliamentary process — is cheating democracy. And ministers know it too.

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Andrew @openpolicy.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

At the Forum on Democratic Resilience & Transparency last month I explained that #OIA laws were often the product of crises of public confidence in governance. Muldoon’s Think Big led to the OIA, but this govt is working to weaken the OIA when we’re already in another dangerous governance situation.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

NZ ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy. But 37th for deliberative democracy - how decisions get made and explained. And that ranking has been falling. I dug into the latest data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

Horizontal lollipop chart showing Deliberative Democracy Index scores for 18 peer countries in 2025. Denmark ranks first at 0.87. New Zealand ranks 37th at 0.64, near the bottom of the group and below Australia (12th, 0.77), the UK (31st, 0.67), and most other comparable democracies. The USA ranks 58th at 0.48. NZ, Australia, UK, and USA are highlighted in colour.

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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

The claim "the fact that the incumbent party was successfully defeated in an election shows that there was never anything to worry about and democracy was fine all along" in the Hungarian case— with explicit or implicit analogy to the US— is maddening to begin with, bc it's a well-known fact 1/

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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

"...if the coercive campaign drags on, U.S. hawks may underestimate Iran’s staying power. From all indications, Tehran has options, and the capacity to cause renewed global economic dislocation." goodauthority.org/news/yes-ira...

goodauthority.org

Yes, Iran has options, despite the U.S. blockade

Here’s why economic coercion is tough to implement – and could spur further escalation.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

It's called a parliamentary system.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." (I also tend to find anyone making highly confident predictions are more often wrong than right. Bonus points for telling us your claims are "indisputable").

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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place. This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism. Here's why.

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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

In competitive authoritarianism, leaders abuse state power to tilt the electoral playing field in their favor, manipulate the media environment and minimize opposition voices, maybe even steal close elections by lying about fraud. But they usually can't overcome a large majority voting against them.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Tyranny requires constant effort. It breaks, it leaks. Authority is brittle. Oppression is the mask of fear. Remember that.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

The fossil fuel crisis is getting worse because we already burned too much fossil fuel which causes extreme weather, meaning the boats bringing us fossil fuel can't get to us and deliver more fossil fuel for us to burn. Is this really where we are? #nzpol #climatechange

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 09/04/2026

Just recorded a great pod, and I gotta say ... solar and batteries are going to win. They are the main dish. Everything else is a side dish. In 10 years, you won't be able to find anyone who disagrees with this.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

ICYMI: Cost of living could be the key battleground issue in 2026. My analysis on the difference between "the economy" and "cost of living" as issues: threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-elec... #nzpol

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Dr Sanjana Hattotuwa @sanjanah.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Starmer, Albanese, and Luxon: Three PMs, and three different captures of the Middle-East war www.linkedin.com/pulse/starme... (LinkedIn) sanjanah.wordpress.com/2026/04/02/s... (WordPress) #nzpol

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

🧵 The economy and cost of living were NZ's two biggest election issues in 2023 — but they're not the same thing. One is about how the country is doing overall; the other is about what people experience at the supermarket. And the data shows voters treated them differently. (1/4) #nzpol #election2026

Most important issue facing NZ among 2023 NZES respondents. Economy led at 17.5%, followed closely by cost of living at 16.7%, then health at 7.9%. All other issues were below 6%.

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Gabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.com · 29/03/2026

T-14 days until the Hungarian election. 🇭🇺🗳️ In this thread, I discuss Magyar's prospects of success in restoring (liberal) democracy (if he wins) and will tell you he's not the saviour you might think he is (but that he’s still good enough for now). 🧵 1/

Magyar on stage with a huge Hungarian flag

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

If you missed my thread/blog post on the growing left-right climate divide in climate opinion in Aotearoa, it's now available to read for free on Newsroom. #nzpol #climatechange

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

In 2020, a majority of right-leaning New Zealanders supported stronger climate action. By 2023, that had dropped to 29%. My analysis of NZES data on the left-right climate divide shows the gap is growing. Short 🧵 - full details on my blog (link below) (1/4) #nzpol #climatepolitics

Support for stronger climate policy by left-right position, 2020 vs 2023. Left-leaning respondents decreased support slightly from about 88% to 83%, while right-leaning respondents dropped sharply from about 52% to 29%.

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Andrew @openpolicy.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

"58% of eligible 18- to 24-year-olds have registered for the Māori roll, up from 50% in 2023." Good piece from @jamietahana.bsky.social on Māori electorates. Hopefully the rate of young people enrolling increases even more. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

theguardian.com

More young people want to vote in New Zealand’s Māori electorates. What are they and how do they work?

Growing numbers of young voters are signing up to the Māori electoral roll as debate flares over the need for dedicated seats ahead of November’s election

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Bronwyn Hayward @bmhayward.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Left the cross parliamentary NZ democracy event yesterday with a strong sense we must clean up donations - I hadnt realised how lax it is -outside of 3 months before elections there are virtually no guardrails

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Bronwyn Hayward @bmhayward.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

‘When we start equating donations as political participation we encourage political parties to think of donors as their stakeholders & we reduce citizens from voters to consumers’ - @bryceedwards.bsky.social speaking about why we need new institutional guard rails around donations for NZ democracy

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

I know they're some of the biggest clichés in politics but "there's only one poll that matters" and "a lot can change by November" seem like they could be more relevant than ever this year. (And movement could go in either direction) #nzpol www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

rnz.co.nz

RNZ-Reid Research poll: Labour extends lead over National

The RNZ-Reid Research poll makes grim reading for the Prime Minister , who has recorded his lowest personal approval rating yet.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

New Zealand's Treaty of Waitangi debate is increasingly partisan - left and right voters are now 34 points apart in support for removing the Treaty from law. In my latest post, I explore what the data shows and what it means for 2026. #nzpol #tetiriti threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/treaty-...

Opinion on whether the Treaty of Waitangi should be part of the law, split by left/right voting bloc, 1996–2023. Coalition party voters are substantially more likely to support removal, with a gap of 34 percentage points between blocs in 2023.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Me: hmm, I wonder this got thru peer review Paper: "LLMs were applied to..." Me: Ah, I see now...

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 12/03/2026

We are experiencing, yet again, the dire effects of dependence on fossil fuels. It's unfolding all around us, like a preschool lesson some deity arranged specifically to patiently teach us the lesson. Is any organized constituency making that point? Are average Americans hearing it?

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Follow up to yesterday's post: Most people accept climate change is real and worrying. So why hasn't the world done more to combat climate change? It's (partly) because most people don't rank #ClimateChange as important, in NZ & around the world #nzpol threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/climate...

threelongyears.crawley.nz

Why public concern about climate change isn't enough

Most people accept climate change is real and worry about it — so why hasn't the world done more to combat climate change? The answer lies not in denial, but in how rarely climate change makes it to t...

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Will 2026 be a climate election in NZ? Unfortunately not, according to my reading of the data - in spite of the weather disasters throughout the summer In my new post, I show that most NZers are won't be voting with climate in mind #nzpol #climatechange threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-clim...

threelongyears.crawley.nz

After a summer of weather disasters, will Kiwis make climate an election issue?

Extreme weather keeps putting climate change in the headlines — but will it actually matter to New Zealand voters in 2026? The data suggests probably not.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

I think the best way of understanding what is going on in #nzpol polls is not to think purely in terms of left vs right bloc. NZF was not considered 'right bloc' until this term. Nat/ACT have lost ~10% support since the election. Around half has gone to NZF, half to the left. i.e. not a popular gov

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Nick Young @nickofnz.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

WOW 🤯 The number of times a State of Emergency has been declared this year in New Zealand ALREADY matches the 2025 total. It’s February. This is what the Climate Crisis looks like.

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Kirsty Johnston @kirstyjohnston.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Bit late to it but if you want to know the chain of events that led to us importing gas (and charging electricity users to pay for it!!), I did this deep dive for RNZ last year www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...

rnz.co.nz

The fuel of ‘last resort’: How imported gas became New Zealand’s first choice

It's expensive, vulnerable to price shocks and terrible for the planet. So why are we importing gas?

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Dr Sarah Hendrica Bickerton 🏳️‍🌈 @sarahhbickerton.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

WTAF?! I don’t want to pay for this. I don’t want to contribute to climate change. We don’t need LNG. We need more renewables and battery storage. This makes me so mad, I cannot describe how stupid & short sighted it is because I will just end up rage-ranting. www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...

stuff.co.nz

New electricity levy ‘not a tax’, PM says as Hipkins deems proposal ‘another kick’ for Kiwi households

The Government has short-listed possible proposals for a liquefied natural gas import facility.

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