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Room for a blue-green party? Even at the low points, about a quarter of right-leaning voters want more environment spending. But concern that doesn't translate into willingness to bear the costs is the bind such a party would face. Full analysis: threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/environ... (6/6)

Is there room for a blue-green party? Environmental opinion in New Zealand

I use New Zealand Election Study and ISSP data to trace how support for environmental action divides along left–right and partisan lines, how NZ compares internationally, and whether there's room for ...

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But concern doesn't mean willingness to pay. On paying higher prices or taxes for the environment, NZ is mid-pack — 2.9 and 2.7 out of 5 — below countries like Denmark, the US and Australia. (5/6)

Dot plot titled "New Zealand is mid-pack on paying for the environment", showing each country's mean willingness to pay higher prices and higher taxes to protect the environment (1 = very unwilling, 5 = very willing), ISSP 2020. New Zealand, highlighted, sits near the middle with a mean of 2.9 for higher prices and 2.7 for higher taxes, below countries such as India (3.8 for higher prices), Switzerland (3.4) and the United States (3.1). Willingness to pay higher taxes is lower than willingness to pay higher prices in every country.

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How does NZ compare globally? On environmental concern, it's near the top: a mean of 4.1 out of 5, the third-highest of 28 countries in the 2020 ISSP, behind only Spain and Slovenia. (4/6)

Dot plot titled "New Zealand ranks high for environmental concern", showing mean environmental concern (1 = not at all, 5 = very concerned) by country, ISSP 2020. New Zealand, highlighted, has a mean of 4.1, the third highest of the 28 countries, behind only Spain (4.3) and Slovenia (4.2). The lowest are Slovakia (3.3), Thailand (3.3) and South Africa (3.4).

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In 2023, support for more environment spending was 91% among Green voters, 87% among Te Pāti Māori and 69% among Labour — but 32% among ACT, 31% National and 30% NZ First. No majority of National or ACT voters has wanted more spending in any year since 1996. (3/6)

Six-panel line chart titled "Green and Te Pāti Māori voters most back environment spending", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by party vote, NZES 1996–2023, with separate panels for ACT, National, NZ First, Labour, Te Pāti Māori and Green. In 2023, support was highest among Green (91%) and Te Pāti Māori (87%) voters, followed by Labour (69%), and lowest among ACT (32%), National (31%) and NZ First (30%) voters. No majority of National or ACT voters has wanted more spending in any year.

Support for environmental action is strong overall. Since 2017 a majority of New Zealanders have wanted more environment spending (51% in 2023), and only 12% want less. The public usually favours the environment over the economy too. (2/6)

Line chart titled "Support for more environment spending has increased", showing the percentage of New Zealanders wanting more versus less government spending on the environment, NZES 1996–2023. The "more" line stays well above the "less" line throughout, rising from 40% in 1996 to a peak of 63% in 2017, then easing to 59% in 2020 and 51% in 2023. The "less" line stays low, between 4% and 12%, ending at 12% in 2023. The question was not asked in 2008.

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Abbey @abbeyarletto.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

In 2023, over 80% of left-leaning New Zealanders wanted more government spending on the environment. Among right-leaning voters, it was 31%. The environment is mostly the left's turf. So is there any room for a right-leaning "blue-green" party? A 🧵 on the NZES data. (1/6) #nzpol #environment

Line chart titled "Spending on the environment increasingly divides left and right", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by left–right self-placement, NZES 1996–2023. The left line rises from 57% in 1996 to 84% in 2023. The right line is consistently lowest, near 26% in 1996, climbing to 48% in 2017 before falling to 31% in 2023. The centre line sits between the two, ending at 51% in 2023.

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Reposted by Sam Crawley

When reality surpasses fiction! Top: fictional forecast for August 2050, broadcast by French TV in 2014 to warn about the consequences of global warming. Bottom: Real French forecast for yesterday, June 22, 2026.

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This is part 2 of two. Part 1 looked at what expert surveys (V-Dem) say about the state of NZ's democracy — good overall, but with a falling score for the quality of consultation and decision-making. (6/6) threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/new-zea...

Is New Zealand's democracy in decline? What expert assessments tell us

New Zealand ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy — but 37th for deliberative democracy, and falling. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, I look at how NZ compares to peer ...

My earlier analysis showed experts see democratic quality slipping in the last few years — a steep fall in democratic satisfaction after the election would break 30 years of stability. (5/6) Lots more in the full post: threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-publ... #nzpol

How satisfied are New Zealanders with democracy?

Most New Zealanders are satisfied with how democracy works — around 71% in 2023, and steady for 30 years. I look at NZES and CSES data on where the public sits, and ask whether that might change in 20...

Satisfaction does dip with election results — it can fall for whoever's party just lost (National's low point was 2005, Labour's 2011 and 2014). But even at those low points most supporters stay satisfied. The one group to drop below half was Te Pāti Māori voters in 2023, at 36%. (4/6)

Small-multiples line chart titled "Labour and Green voters consistently the most satisfied with democracy", showing the share of each party's voters satisfied (fairly or very) with the way democracy works, 1996–2023, from NZES data excluding "don't know". Six panels, one per party, each on a 0–100% scale. ACT runs from 83% in 1996 down to a low of 49% in 2011, up to 78% in 2020, then 58% in 2023. National starts at 83% in 1996, bottoms out near 50% in 2005, peaks at 86% in 2014 and sits at 70% in 2023. NZ First is the consistently lowest, mostly in the 52–72% range, ending at 65%. Labour stays high, from 69% in 1996 to a peak of 90% in 2020 and 83% in 2023, with dips to around 60% in 2011 and 58% in 2014. Te Pāti Māori (data from 2005) ranges from the high 50s to 69%, then falls sharply to 36% in 2023. Green is consistently among the most satisfied, in the 65–91% range, peaking at 91% in 2020 and ending at 78%.

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Satisfaction compares well internationally too. Across 16 countries in CSES, NZ ranks 6th (72%) — behind Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Australia and Taiwan, ahead of France, Poland and Portugal. The least satisfied (Slovenia 34%, Türkiye 31%, Brazil 28%) face democratic challenges. (3/6)

Diverging stacked bar chart titled "New Zealanders are among the more satisfied with how democracy works", showing satisfaction with the way democracy works across 16 countries from CSES Module 6 (2021–2026), excluding "don't know". Each country's bar splits dissatisfied responses (not at all, not very) to the left of centre and satisfied responses (fairly, very) to the right, and countries are ordered from most to least satisfied. New Zealand, highlighted, sits sixth from the top with 63% fairly satisfied and 9% very satisfied — 72% satisfied overall. Above it are Switzerland (86% satisfied), Denmark (84%), Sweden (84%), Australia (80%) and Taiwan (78%). Below New Zealand satisfaction falls away through Austria, Montenegro, Poland, France and Portugal, down to the least satisfied countries: Slovenia (34%), Türkiye (31%) and Brazil (28%).

Beyond satisfaction, 85% say democracy is always preferable to other forms of government, and asked to rate how democratic NZ is from 0 to 10, half put it at 8 or higher (mean 7.1). Only about 10% place NZ below the midpoint. (2/6)

Bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders rate the country as strongly democratic", showing where respondents place NZ on a scale from not at all democratic (0) to completely democratic (10), NZES 2023, excluding "don't know". The distribution is heavily skewed towards the democratic end. Ratings of 0, 1 and 2 each draw about 1%, rising to 3% at both 3 and 4, then 11% at 5, 11% at 6, 19% at 7, a peak of 24% at 8, 14% at 9 and 12% at 10. A dashed line marks the mean rating of 7.1. Ratings of 8 or higher account for 50% of responses.

Kevin Hague @kevinhague.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

At a time when democracies elsewhere are under strain, New Zealanders are notably content with theirs: 71% were satisfied with how democracy works after the 2023 election, and that's held near 70% for 30 years. I looked at NZES and CSES data. Short 🧵 (1/6) #nzpol

Diverging stacked bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders are satisfied with how democracy works", using NZES 2023 data and excluding "don't know" responses. The top panel, "Satisfaction with the way democracy works", shows 5% of respondents not at all satisfied and 24% not very satisfied (left of centre), against 63% fairly satisfied and 8% very satisfied (right of centre) — 71% satisfied overall. The bottom panel, "Democracy always preferable to other forms of government", shows 1% strongly disagree, 4% somewhat disagree and 10% neither, against 29% somewhat agree and 56% strongly agree — about 85% agreeing democracy is preferable.

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Reposted by Sam Crawley

It strikes me, on the balance of probabilities, that 1. Fonterra and Z sent their lobbying to Matt Burgess’ personal email address in order to try to avoid public scrutiny; 2. They were given that address to facilitate avoiding public scrutiny;

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Reposted by Sam Crawley

Dr Dean Knight @drdeanknight.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

A couple of quick reckons on the move to oust non-elected committee members from local authorities. www.beehive.govt.nz/release/coun...

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Another signal (if we needed any more) that NZ First are positioning themselves as a radical right party. Unlike most other countries, though, there is no "firewall" that means centrist parties will refuse to go into coalition with them. #nzpol www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...

stuff.co.nz

Party’s former leader to stand for NZ First in this year’s election

Elliot Ikilei, the former leader of the New Conservative Party, will stand as a candidate in this year’s election for NZ First.

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Reposted by Sam Crawley

Sam @samd.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Zohran just cited Minneapolis, Austin, and Auckland as cities that lowered housing costs via upzoning certified ball knowledge, Auckland is a deep YIMBY cut

Zohran Mamdani with local councilmember and government officials

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

It seems like online voting is not such a popular idea any more? I guess even the extreme techno-optimists have had to stop promoting it given all the (reasonable) concerns about foreign interference in elections.

Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

This was a really basic security hole created by a company contracted to handle some of the most sensitive personal data It's not an isolated incident - assume everything you give to a 3rd party online will be compromised (Which is why online voting is a really bad idea and we should never do it)

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Also, when you ask about attitudes like whether immigration is linked to crime, NZ still stands out. i.e. NZers are much less likely to think immigration increases crime than many other countries.

That's a good question, and could account for some of the cross-country variation in support for immigration being reduced/increased. I'm not an expert on immigration policy, but I don't think NZ is a lot more restrictive than Europe, US, Aus.

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The UK is usually part of ISSP, but apparently they had some methodological issues with UK data for this module of ISSP, so it's not included in the main data file.

NZ scores lowest of 29 countries on belief that immigration increases crime, and low on immigration taking jobs. Attitudes may be hardening, though (see recent Clark foundation report) - impact on the election remains to be seen Full analysis: threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/immigra... (4/5) #nzpol

New Zealand's immigration attitudes: an international outlier

Many New Zealanders want immigration reduced — but is that opposition about the economy, or about culture? Drawing on NZES and ISSP data, I find that in 2023 anti-immigration sentiment was lower here ...

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But it's not all economic. 76% of NZers say speaking English is key to being a 'true New Zealander', and 42% say being born here matters. Some opposition is cultural. (3/5)

Stacked bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders say speaking English is key to 'true' NZ identity", showing how important three factors are for being a 'true New Zealander' (NZES 2023, excluding 'don't know'). Response categories from left to right: Not important at all (dark blue), Not very important (light blue), Fairly important (orange), Very important (red). Grandparents born in New Zealand is rated least important: 39% not important at all, 38% not very important, 15% fairly important, and only 8% very important. Born in New Zealand is more split: 24% not important at all, 34% not very important, 22% fairly important, and 20% very important. Can speak English is rated most important: 9% not important at all, 15% not very important, 37% fairly important, and 39% very important — 76% rate it important.

Economic concerns seem to be a big part of opposition to immigration. 46% of Kiwis in the lowest household income bracket want immigration reduced — but only 18% in the top bracket do. The two highest income groups lean pro-immigration on average. (2/5)

Diverging bar chart titled "Higher earners lean more pro-immigration", showing views on NZ immigration levels by household income bracket (NZES 2023). Response categories are: Reduced a lot, Reduced a little, About the same, Increased a little, Increased a lot. The topmost group, $183,570 and over, shows only 18% wanting a reduction and 42% wanting an increase — one of only two income groups that lean pro-immigration on average. $123,435–$183,569 leans slightly pro-immigration, with 28% wanting a reduction and 32% an increase. $80,180–$123,434 and $44,521–$80,179 show mild anti-immigration pluralities, while $44,520 or less shows the strongest anti-immigration views, with 46% wanting reduction and 24% an increase. The no income group is an outlier, with 72% wanting immigration to stay about the same.

Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Of 29 countries surveyed, NZ has the lowest opposition to immigration — one of only four where the average respondent leans toward wanting more, not less. What's behind the opposition that does exist? I dug into NZES and ISSP data — part 2 of a two-part series. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

Dot plot titled "New Zealanders most open to immigration globally", ranking 29 countries by mean response to 'The number of immigrants should be...' on a 1–5 scale where 1 means increased a lot, 3 means remain the same, and 5 means reduced a lot (ISSP 2023 National Identity IV). A dashed line marks 3. New Zealand (highlighted in blue) scores 2.87 — the lowest of the 29 countries. It is one of four below the midpoint of 3 (with Thailand 2.88, Lithuania 2.89, and Taiwan 2.94), meaning that in those countries the average respondent leans toward wanting more immigration. At the other extreme, Russia scores 4.17, followed by Hungary (4.09), Greece (4.06), and the Netherlands (4.03). Australia scores 3.49, Canada 3.48, and the United States 3.51.

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Quite interesting to see the differences between Stuff and NZH comments on stories about the public service cutbacks. Polar opposites. #nzpol

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That's true, but social media can only do so much. It would be a big change in NZ politics if immigration became a dominating issue like it is in the US or UK. Not impossible, of course, but would require a lot of movement in a short amount of time.

Part 2 next week: how NZers think about immigration: is it mostly about economics or culture? Subscribe to get notified: threelongyears.crawley.nz/subscribe/ (6/6) #nzpol #election2026

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NZ First has consistently opposed high immigration, but salience has risen and fallen. ACT's harder line in 2026 risks dividing a base that's roughly split on the issue. Whether immigration becomes a deciding issue this cycle is the open question. (5/6)

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Immigration has been a low-salience issue in NZ — cited as the most important issue by fewer than 2% of voters in every election since 2008 except 2017. That year, when NZ First campaigned hard on it, salience rose to 6% overall and 22% among NZ First voters. In 2023 it was 0.6%. (4/6)

Heat-map tile chart showing the percentage of voters citing immigration as the most important issue, by party vote, 2008–2023. Immigration salience peaked sharply in 2017 and has since fallen. Among all voters: 0.2% in 2008, 1.3% in 2014, 6% in 2017, 1.5% in 2020, 0.6% in 2023. The 2017 peak was most pronounced for NZ First voters (22%), compared to 6.7% in 2014 and 3% in 2020. In 2017, it was also elevated for Labour (6.7%) and National (4.4%) voters. Te Pāti Māori showed a different pattern, peaking at 5.9% in 2020. ACT data is unavailable for 2014 and 2017 (grey cells).

The partisan divide is broadly as you'd expect, but ACT stands out. NZ First voters are the most opposed, Green voters are the most supportive. ACT is split: 40% wanted reduction and 36% wanted an increase. Labour and National supporters have similar positions. (3/6)

Horizontal stacked bar chart showing views on immigration levels by 2023 party vote, excluding "don't know" responses. NZ First voters most strongly favour reduction: 27% reduced a lot and 27% reduced a little (combined 54%), with only 17% wanting an increase. ACT voters are more divided: 40% favour reduction but 36% favour an increase. Te Pāti Māori lean toward reduction (39% combined) but with a substantial pro-immigration share (30%). Labour and National are similar: 33–36% favour reduction and 25–29% favour an increase. Green voters are the most pro-immigration: 41% want an increase and only 19% want a reduction.

In most years, more than 40% of NZES respondents — and often a majority — wanted immigration reduced. In 2023, that dropped to 34%, the lowest since 1999. The share wanting more immigration rose to 28%. (2/6)

Stacked bar chart showing views on immigration levels in New Zealand, 1996–2023. Answer categories were: Reduced a lot, reduced a little, about the same, increased a little, increased a lot. Support for reduction was highest in 1996, when 57% wanted immigration reduced (28% a lot, 29% a little). The levels are mostly consistent throughout the period, except in 1999 and 2023. In 2023 only 34% wanted a reduction (15% reduced a lot, 19% reduced a little), while those wanting an increase rose to 28% (20% increased a little, 8% increased a lot). The "About the same" category has remained broadly stable between 32% and 40%. The 2020 wording differed slightly, asking about levels "compared to before COVID-19".

🧵 NZ First and ACT are both running on immigration in 2026. But only 0.6% of voters named it their most important issue at the last election — and in 2023, NZers were more pro-immigration than in most years. I analysed 30 years of NZES data. (1/6) #nzpol threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/immigra...

Immigration has rarely driven NZ elections. Could 2026 buck the trend?

With immigration back on the political agenda, I use NZ Election Study data to examine how attitudes differ by party — from NZ First's consistent opposition to ACT's divided base. Immigration has rare...

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

My deep distrust of relying on university services for anything is definitely paying off right now.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Maybe putting everything into the cloud and creating one giant single point of failure was not such a good idea after all.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Labour felt the best strategy going into 2023 was to do as little as possible before the election. Nat/Act/NZF seem to feel they should push as much through as possible before the election.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Interesting comparing the current stage of 2023 and 2026 electoral cycles. At this point: In 2023 (Hipkins/Labour) - policy bonfire In 2026 (Luxon/Nat/Act/NZF) - institutional bonfire #nzpol

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Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

This week, the Supreme Court finally killed off the Voting Rights Act of 1965. I've spent the past decade studying the VRA and the attacks on it, so I thought I would offer some historical perspective, and where I think we're headed. This will be a long thread; buckle up.

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My guess is no snap election, but NZF/National tensions to continue. Unless there's a big shift in the polls, both parties will believe they can increase their vote given time, so it's better to wait.

The rise of the radical right seen overseas has meant a more gendered politics — men are much more likely to support parties like Reform UK than women. But the gendered polarisation seen overseas doesn't have a clear NZ analogue. Full analysis: threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/gender-... (4/4)

The gender voting gap in New Zealand: why 2023 was different

Women in New Zealand tend to lean left of men — a pattern that has held across most of the past three decades of NZES data. But the gap is small enough to be overwhelmed by other factors. In 2023, Nat...

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The underlying ideological divide is real but small. Men average around 5.5 on the 0–10 left-right scale, women ~5.2 — a gap that's mostly held since 1996. Gender-diverse respondents sit much further left, averaging around 3.5 in 2023. Sample sizes are very small, however. (3/4)

Mean left-right self-placement by gender on a 0–10 scale, 1996–2023. Men average around 5.5 and women around 5.2 across most elections, though the gap narrows to near zero in 2008 and 2011. Non-binary/gender diverse respondents (n = 10–15 per survey, shown from 2020) averaged 2.8 in 2020 and 3.5 in 2023 — well to the left of both men and women.

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Labour's gender gap peaked at around 11 percentage points in 2020, then nearly vanished in 2023. When National gains among women, Labour tends to lose them — and 2023 followed that pattern clearly. The Greens, ACT, and NZ First all show the gaps you'd expect. (2/4)

Gender gap in party vote (women % minus men %) for five parties, 1996–2023. Labour's gap peaked at around 11 percentage points in 2020 before falling to near zero in 2023. Green fluctuates around zero. ACT and NZ First show consistently negative gaps across the entire period. National's gap turned positive in 2023, with women 3 points more likely than men to vote National.