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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

But concern doesn't mean willingness to pay. On paying higher prices or taxes for the environment, NZ is mid-pack — 2.9 and 2.7 out of 5 — below countries like Denmark, the US and Australia. (5/6)

Dot plot titled "New Zealand is mid-pack on paying for the environment", showing each country's mean willingness to pay higher prices and higher taxes to protect the environment (1 = very unwilling, 5 = very willing), ISSP 2020. New Zealand, highlighted, sits near the middle with a mean of 2.9 for higher prices and 2.7 for higher taxes, below countries such as India (3.8 for higher prices), Switzerland (3.4) and the United States (3.1). Willingness to pay higher taxes is lower than willingness to pay higher prices in every country.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

How does NZ compare globally? On environmental concern, it's near the top: a mean of 4.1 out of 5, the third-highest of 28 countries in the 2020 ISSP, behind only Spain and Slovenia. (4/6)

Dot plot titled "New Zealand ranks high for environmental concern", showing mean environmental concern (1 = not at all, 5 = very concerned) by country, ISSP 2020. New Zealand, highlighted, has a mean of 4.1, the third highest of the 28 countries, behind only Spain (4.3) and Slovenia (4.2). The lowest are Slovakia (3.3), Thailand (3.3) and South Africa (3.4).

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

In 2023, support for more environment spending was 91% among Green voters, 87% among Te Pāti Māori and 69% among Labour — but 32% among ACT, 31% National and 30% NZ First. No majority of National or ACT voters has wanted more spending in any year since 1996. (3/6)

Six-panel line chart titled "Green and Te Pāti Māori voters most back environment spending", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by party vote, NZES 1996–2023, with separate panels for ACT, National, NZ First, Labour, Te Pāti Māori and Green. In 2023, support was highest among Green (91%) and Te Pāti Māori (87%) voters, followed by Labour (69%), and lowest among ACT (32%), National (31%) and NZ First (30%) voters. No majority of National or ACT voters has wanted more spending in any year.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Support for environmental action is strong overall. Since 2017 a majority of New Zealanders have wanted more environment spending (51% in 2023), and only 12% want less. The public usually favours the environment over the economy too. (2/6)

Line chart titled "Support for more environment spending has increased", showing the percentage of New Zealanders wanting more versus less government spending on the environment, NZES 1996–2023. The "more" line stays well above the "less" line throughout, rising from 40% in 1996 to a peak of 63% in 2017, then easing to 59% in 2020 and 51% in 2023. The "less" line stays low, between 4% and 12%, ending at 12% in 2023. The question was not asked in 2008.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

In 2023, over 80% of left-leaning New Zealanders wanted more government spending on the environment. Among right-leaning voters, it was 31%. The environment is mostly the left's turf. So is there any room for a right-leaning "blue-green" party? A 🧵 on the NZES data. (1/6) #nzpol #environment

Line chart titled "Spending on the environment increasingly divides left and right", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by left–right self-placement, NZES 1996–2023. The left line rises from 57% in 1996 to 84% in 2023. The right line is consistently lowest, near 26% in 1996, climbing to 48% in 2017 before falling to 31% in 2023. The centre line sits between the two, ending at 51% in 2023.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Satisfaction does dip with election results — it can fall for whoever's party just lost (National's low point was 2005, Labour's 2011 and 2014). But even at those low points most supporters stay satisfied. The one group to drop below half was Te Pāti Māori voters in 2023, at 36%. (4/6)

Small-multiples line chart titled "Labour and Green voters consistently the most satisfied with democracy", showing the share of each party's voters satisfied (fairly or very) with the way democracy works, 1996–2023, from NZES data excluding "don't know". Six panels, one per party, each on a 0–100% scale. ACT runs from 83% in 1996 down to a low of 49% in 2011, up to 78% in 2020, then 58% in 2023. National starts at 83% in 1996, bottoms out near 50% in 2005, peaks at 86% in 2014 and sits at 70% in 2023. NZ First is the consistently lowest, mostly in the 52–72% range, ending at 65%. Labour stays high, from 69% in 1996 to a peak of 90% in 2020 and 83% in 2023, with dips to around 60% in 2011 and 58% in 2014. Te Pāti Māori (data from 2005) ranges from the high 50s to 69%, then falls sharply to 36% in 2023. Green is consistently among the most satisfied, in the 65–91% range, peaking at 91% in 2020 and ending at 78%.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Satisfaction compares well internationally too. Across 16 countries in CSES, NZ ranks 6th (72%) — behind Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Australia and Taiwan, ahead of France, Poland and Portugal. The least satisfied (Slovenia 34%, Türkiye 31%, Brazil 28%) face democratic challenges. (3/6)

Diverging stacked bar chart titled "New Zealanders are among the more satisfied with how democracy works", showing satisfaction with the way democracy works across 16 countries from CSES Module 6 (2021–2026), excluding "don't know". Each country's bar splits dissatisfied responses (not at all, not very) to the left of centre and satisfied responses (fairly, very) to the right, and countries are ordered from most to least satisfied. New Zealand, highlighted, sits sixth from the top with 63% fairly satisfied and 9% very satisfied — 72% satisfied overall. Above it are Switzerland (86% satisfied), Denmark (84%), Sweden (84%), Australia (80%) and Taiwan (78%). Below New Zealand satisfaction falls away through Austria, Montenegro, Poland, France and Portugal, down to the least satisfied countries: Slovenia (34%), Türkiye (31%) and Brazil (28%).

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Beyond satisfaction, 85% say democracy is always preferable to other forms of government, and asked to rate how democratic NZ is from 0 to 10, half put it at 8 or higher (mean 7.1). Only about 10% place NZ below the midpoint. (2/6)

Bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders rate the country as strongly democratic", showing where respondents place NZ on a scale from not at all democratic (0) to completely democratic (10), NZES 2023, excluding "don't know". The distribution is heavily skewed towards the democratic end. Ratings of 0, 1 and 2 each draw about 1%, rising to 3% at both 3 and 4, then 11% at 5, 11% at 6, 19% at 7, a peak of 24% at 8, 14% at 9 and 12% at 10. A dashed line marks the mean rating of 7.1. Ratings of 8 or higher account for 50% of responses.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

At a time when democracies elsewhere are under strain, New Zealanders are notably content with theirs: 71% were satisfied with how democracy works after the 2023 election, and that's held near 70% for 30 years. I looked at NZES and CSES data. Short 🧵 (1/6) #nzpol

Diverging stacked bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders are satisfied with how democracy works", using NZES 2023 data and excluding "don't know" responses. The top panel, "Satisfaction with the way democracy works", shows 5% of respondents not at all satisfied and 24% not very satisfied (left of centre), against 63% fairly satisfied and 8% very satisfied (right of centre) — 71% satisfied overall. The bottom panel, "Democracy always preferable to other forms of government", shows 1% strongly disagree, 4% somewhat disagree and 10% neither, against 29% somewhat agree and 56% strongly agree — about 85% agreeing democracy is preferable.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

But it's not all economic. 76% of NZers say speaking English is key to being a 'true New Zealander', and 42% say being born here matters. Some opposition is cultural. (3/5)

Stacked bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders say speaking English is key to 'true' NZ identity", showing how important three factors are for being a 'true New Zealander' (NZES 2023, excluding 'don't know'). Response categories from left to right: Not important at all (dark blue), Not very important (light blue), Fairly important (orange), Very important (red). Grandparents born in New Zealand is rated least important: 39% not important at all, 38% not very important, 15% fairly important, and only 8% very important. Born in New Zealand is more split: 24% not important at all, 34% not very important, 22% fairly important, and 20% very important. Can speak English is rated most important: 9% not important at all, 15% not very important, 37% fairly important, and 39% very important — 76% rate it important.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Economic concerns seem to be a big part of opposition to immigration. 46% of Kiwis in the lowest household income bracket want immigration reduced — but only 18% in the top bracket do. The two highest income groups lean pro-immigration on average. (2/5)

Diverging bar chart titled "Higher earners lean more pro-immigration", showing views on NZ immigration levels by household income bracket (NZES 2023). Response categories are: Reduced a lot, Reduced a little, About the same, Increased a little, Increased a lot. The topmost group, $183,570 and over, shows only 18% wanting a reduction and 42% wanting an increase — one of only two income groups that lean pro-immigration on average. $123,435–$183,569 leans slightly pro-immigration, with 28% wanting a reduction and 32% an increase. $80,180–$123,434 and $44,521–$80,179 show mild anti-immigration pluralities, while $44,520 or less shows the strongest anti-immigration views, with 46% wanting reduction and 24% an increase. The no income group is an outlier, with 72% wanting immigration to stay about the same.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Of 29 countries surveyed, NZ has the lowest opposition to immigration — one of only four where the average respondent leans toward wanting more, not less. What's behind the opposition that does exist? I dug into NZES and ISSP data — part 2 of a two-part series. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

Dot plot titled "New Zealanders most open to immigration globally", ranking 29 countries by mean response to 'The number of immigrants should be...' on a 1–5 scale where 1 means increased a lot, 3 means remain the same, and 5 means reduced a lot (ISSP 2023 National Identity IV). A dashed line marks 3. New Zealand (highlighted in blue) scores 2.87 — the lowest of the 29 countries. It is one of four below the midpoint of 3 (with Thailand 2.88, Lithuania 2.89, and Taiwan 2.94), meaning that in those countries the average respondent leans toward wanting more immigration. At the other extreme, Russia scores 4.17, followed by Hungary (4.09), Greece (4.06), and the Netherlands (4.03). Australia scores 3.49, Canada 3.48, and the United States 3.51.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Immigration has been a low-salience issue in NZ — cited as the most important issue by fewer than 2% of voters in every election since 2008 except 2017. That year, when NZ First campaigned hard on it, salience rose to 6% overall and 22% among NZ First voters. In 2023 it was 0.6%. (4/6)

Heat-map tile chart showing the percentage of voters citing immigration as the most important issue, by party vote, 2008–2023. Immigration salience peaked sharply in 2017 and has since fallen. Among all voters: 0.2% in 2008, 1.3% in 2014, 6% in 2017, 1.5% in 2020, 0.6% in 2023. The 2017 peak was most pronounced for NZ First voters (22%), compared to 6.7% in 2014 and 3% in 2020. In 2017, it was also elevated for Labour (6.7%) and National (4.4%) voters. Te Pāti Māori showed a different pattern, peaking at 5.9% in 2020. ACT data is unavailable for 2014 and 2017 (grey cells).

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

The partisan divide is broadly as you'd expect, but ACT stands out. NZ First voters are the most opposed, Green voters are the most supportive. ACT is split: 40% wanted reduction and 36% wanted an increase. Labour and National supporters have similar positions. (3/6)

Horizontal stacked bar chart showing views on immigration levels by 2023 party vote, excluding "don't know" responses. NZ First voters most strongly favour reduction: 27% reduced a lot and 27% reduced a little (combined 54%), with only 17% wanting an increase. ACT voters are more divided: 40% favour reduction but 36% favour an increase. Te Pāti Māori lean toward reduction (39% combined) but with a substantial pro-immigration share (30%). Labour and National are similar: 33–36% favour reduction and 25–29% favour an increase. Green voters are the most pro-immigration: 41% want an increase and only 19% want a reduction.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

In most years, more than 40% of NZES respondents — and often a majority — wanted immigration reduced. In 2023, that dropped to 34%, the lowest since 1999. The share wanting more immigration rose to 28%. (2/6)

Stacked bar chart showing views on immigration levels in New Zealand, 1996–2023. Answer categories were: Reduced a lot, reduced a little, about the same, increased a little, increased a lot. Support for reduction was highest in 1996, when 57% wanted immigration reduced (28% a lot, 29% a little). The levels are mostly consistent throughout the period, except in 1999 and 2023. In 2023 only 34% wanted a reduction (15% reduced a lot, 19% reduced a little), while those wanting an increase rose to 28% (20% increased a little, 8% increased a lot). The "About the same" category has remained broadly stable between 32% and 40%. The 2020 wording differed slightly, asking about levels "compared to before COVID-19".

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

The underlying ideological divide is real but small. Men average around 5.5 on the 0–10 left-right scale, women ~5.2 — a gap that's mostly held since 1996. Gender-diverse respondents sit much further left, averaging around 3.5 in 2023. Sample sizes are very small, however. (3/4)

Mean left-right self-placement by gender on a 0–10 scale, 1996–2023. Men average around 5.5 and women around 5.2 across most elections, though the gap narrows to near zero in 2008 and 2011. Non-binary/gender diverse respondents (n = 10–15 per survey, shown from 2020) averaged 2.8 in 2020 and 3.5 in 2023 — well to the left of both men and women.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Labour's gender gap peaked at around 11 percentage points in 2020, then nearly vanished in 2023. When National gains among women, Labour tends to lose them — and 2023 followed that pattern clearly. The Greens, ACT, and NZ First all show the gaps you'd expect. (2/4)

Gender gap in party vote (women % minus men %) for five parties, 1996–2023. Labour's gap peaked at around 11 percentage points in 2020 before falling to near zero in 2023. Green fluctuates around zero. ACT and NZ First show consistently negative gaps across the entire period. National's gap turned positive in 2023, with women 3 points more likely than men to vote National.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

National won a higher share of women voters than men in 2023 — 41% vs 37%. That runs against the usual pattern, where women tend to lean left. I analysed three decades of NZES data on the gender voting gap in NZ. There is a gender gap, but it's small. 🧵 #nzpol

Party vote by gender, 2023. Women were more likely to vote National (41% vs 37%), Labour (28% vs 26%), and Green (12% vs 10%). Men were more likely to vote ACT (10% vs 6%) and NZ First (7% vs 6%).

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

That score has fallen to NZ's lowest since around the 1980s, with the biggest single-year drop in 2025. Consultation, common-good justification, and respect for counterarguments have all declined since the current government took office. (4/5)

Line chart of five deliberative democracy sub-components for New Zealand from 2010 to 2025. Since the current government took office in late 2023 (shaded region), Common good justification fell from 3.5 to 2.3, Respect for counterarguments fell from 2.5 to 1.6, Reasoned justification and Consultation also declined. Engaged society was the exception, rising above 4.0.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

The Liberal Democracy Index - elections, civil liberties, rule of law - puts NZ at 0.79, roughly level with Australia. We trail the Scandinavians but sit well ahead of the UK (0.69) and US (0.57). On this measure, NZ looks in reasonable shape. (2/5)

Horizontal lollipop chart showing Liberal Democracy Index scores for 18 peer countries in 2025. Denmark ranks first at 0.88, with Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland close behind. New Zealand ranks 14th at 0.79, level with Australia (12th) and above the UK (30th, 0.69) and USA (51st, 0.57). NZ, Australia, UK, and USA are highlighted in colour.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

NZ ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy. But 37th for deliberative democracy - how decisions get made and explained. And that ranking has been falling. I dug into the latest data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

Horizontal lollipop chart showing Deliberative Democracy Index scores for 18 peer countries in 2025. Denmark ranks first at 0.87. New Zealand ranks 37th at 0.64, near the bottom of the group and below Australia (12th, 0.77), the UK (31st, 0.67), and most other comparable democracies. The USA ranks 58th at 0.48. NZ, Australia, UK, and USA are highlighted in colour.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

How much voters liked each party (rated 0–10) reinforces the divide. Economy voters: National 7/10, Labour 4/10. But among cost of living voters — focused on household bills — Labour (5.5) and National (5.1) were nearly level. No party owned the issue. (3/4)

Average party feeling score (0–10) for Labour and National by most important issue, 2023 NZES. Economy voters: National 7, Labour 4. Cost of living voters: Labour 5.5, National 5.1 — nearly equal. Health voters: Labour 6.2, National 4.9.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

The distinction shows up in party preferences. National dominated among economy voters: 78.8% said they were best placed to handle it. But cost of living voters — focused on household bills — were fragmented: National 37.5%, Labour 23.6%, no party 15.2%. (2/4)

Which party voters thought best to handle their most important issue, 2023 NZES. For economy voters, National dominated at 78.8%. For cost of living voters, responses were fragmented: National 37.5%, Labour 23.6%, no party 15.2%. Health voters favoured Labour at 37%, with National at 25.1%.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

🧵 The economy and cost of living were NZ's two biggest election issues in 2023 — but they're not the same thing. One is about how the country is doing overall; the other is about what people experience at the supermarket. And the data shows voters treated them differently. (1/4) #nzpol #election2026

Most important issue facing NZ among 2023 NZES respondents. Economy led at 17.5%, followed closely by cost of living at 16.7%, then health at 7.9%. All other issues were below 6%.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Overall support for stronger climate policies dropped from 62% to 50% between 2020 and 2023. But the shift wasn't evenly distributed. (2/4)

Overall support for stronger government policies to reduce carbon emissions, 2020 vs 2023. Support weakened: agreement fell from 61.7% to 50.4%.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

In 2020, a majority of right-leaning New Zealanders supported stronger climate action. By 2023, that had dropped to 29%. My analysis of NZES data on the left-right climate divide shows the gap is growing. Short 🧵 - full details on my blog (link below) (1/4) #nzpol #climatepolitics

Support for stronger climate policy by left-right position, 2020 vs 2023. Left-leaning respondents decreased support slightly from about 88% to 83%, while right-leaning respondents dropped sharply from about 52% to 29%.

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Sam Crawley @samcrawley.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

New Zealand's Treaty of Waitangi debate is increasingly partisan - left and right voters are now 34 points apart in support for removing the Treaty from law. In my latest post, I explore what the data shows and what it means for 2026. #nzpol #tetiriti threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/treaty-...

Opinion on whether the Treaty of Waitangi should be part of the law, split by left/right voting bloc, 1996–2023. Coalition party voters are substantially more likely to support removal, with a gap of 34 percentage points between blocs in 2023.

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