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L’Apprendista Umarell

@rlkjr86.bsky.social
217 followers 116 following 242 posts

I come from a long line of what you might call “spicy academics.” Political psychology—authoritarianism, intergroup behavior, social identity—and quantitative methodology | UC Davis PhD candidate | UofL alum | Kentucky Colonel

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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
True secularism is not possible.
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Lisa 🇨🇦 @peacewind.aero · 01/10/2026
I spilled half a bag of cat food on the floor. My cat, who hasn’t finished her provided food today, scrambled to consume as many pieces as she could. She then proceeded to sit on the remaining mound on the floor like some sort of cat Smaug.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
We're so screwed.
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 21/09/2026
#OpenAccess from @poppublicsphere.bsky.social - Positional Blurring in Context: How Dimensionality and Ideology Constrain Strategy - cup.org/4dNElqp - @ndelacerda.bsky.social & Jacob R. Gunderson #FirstView
The image features the text "Perspectives on Politics" in bold, blue letters on a white background, with an illustration of a person holding a megaphone in the background. The bottom section reads "#OpenAccess" in white on a blue background.
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Future generations hold the lowest moral standing, even below present-day marginalized human and nonhuman outgroups journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
MAPQUEST IS BACK ON TOP
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Horribly sad news. www.inquirer.com/education/ac...
inquirer.com
The Academy of Natural Sciences is closing its museum after nearly two centuries
The closure does not affect the rest of the institution, which builds and maintains the collections and conducts research through departments such as the Patrick Center for Environmental Research.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The flood in Nepal somehow makes imagining the Bertz floods even more difficult. Abstraction simultaneously reduced and amplified.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Now write the tandem piece about what is happening to public university funding & immigration policy in Canada, the UK, Germany, etc. These high-profile hirings are good headlines. The real story is no other country is coming to save higher ed & scientific research right now, including Canada.
ft.com
Canada poaches 48 US-based top academics
Trump administration’s assault on universities boosts Ottawa’s efforts to attract top research talent
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
It's called art. Look it up.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
More like Jackson Bollock.
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Andy Vitek @avitek.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
In Tim's case, it's a mix of grift and pathological attachment to the delusion that he's a counter-cultural deep thinker, which by definition can't directly associate with explicit partisanship.
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
to be clear, trump is doing this because he’s almost out of advanced munitions including interceptors for the war with iran. he can’t admit it because it’s one of the most painfully dumb, embarrassing, juvenile fuckups in US history—second only to starting the damn war in the first place.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I wrote this because most journalists facing this pressure can’t. The paper we count on to check authoritarianism spiked an investigation into the Democratic Party because the party’s lawyers threatened to sue. Holding authoritarians accountable starts with holding your own side accountable.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I'm old enough to remember when people believed Trump was going to stop endless wars. And old enough to remember Bill Murray making fun of him in Scrooged.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
See also d'Urso et al. www.cambridge.org/core/journal... and prior work by Clifford and coauthors www.cambridge.org/core/journal... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... Pre-treatment measures are fine (cc: R2). Contrary to 90s lore, 𝗆̶𝗈̶𝗇̶𝖾̶𝗒̶ priming ain't a thing.
cambridge.org
Where to place sensitive questions? Experiments on survey response order and measures of discriminatory attitudes | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Where to place sensitive questions? Experiments on survey response order and measures of discriminatory attitudes
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Preach.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Lookin' at you, Saudi EArabia.
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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
On the off chance you're relying on OSF to store your data; put copies of it somewhere safe ASAP. I like to think they've got the runway to keep storing things like they suggest, but it wouldn't be the first time something like this went dark on the internet. www.cos.io/osf-changes
cos.io
OSF Changes | Center for Open Science
We are preparing substantial changes to OSF that will reduce its functionality, focus OSF on its unique strengths, and move toward an integrated model with complementary services. As part of that shif...
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
A must read. Increasingly journals want to see some acknowledgement of LLM usage when submitting. Personally, as a reviewer, I like this and also don't care what the journal's ultimate policy is on LLMs. I refuse to read any paper that uses them to assist with writing and will reject it outright.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
The idea that deep institutional damage can be easily rolled back seems like a very odd take for a conservative. The damage to the civil service system is huge, and legislation is needed to reassure future hires they won’t be fired on a whim.
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
El-Sayed is very good at this.
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Andy Vitek @avitek.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Yes, class accelerationism is and always will be idiotic, but not only is this person from New Zealand, but they got absolutely cooked in the comments. Annoying as they may be, this wing of the online left is as politically irrelevant as they are unserious. No need to fret on them.
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Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
SNAP has an outstanding ROI: every dollar we invest in SNAP generates $1.54 in economic activity. With SNAP cuts, people can’t continue to support these local grocers, so local businesses suffer. Everyone loses.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
For the record, I genuinely want to see my students do well, so it'd be nice to hear things worked out. However, writing letters takes time, and if this is just how it is, I think I'll pass on writing them in the future until common courtesy reevolves.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Does anyone else get annoyed when you write a letter of recommendation (like an adult, not using an LLM), the student successfully achieves whatever goal, and then they don't even bother to tell you? Should be a pretty easy, decent thing to do, but radio silence seems to be the norm.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Call me Tatooinian moisture farmer because I'm over the twin suns seeing that the LDS Church has only a 54% retention rate among its young "users." The war against silly stuff is far from over, but I still hold hope for our species' ultimate triumph. I just hope we win before we cook the planet.
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CUNY Institute for State & Local Governance @cunyislg.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Different state governments have drastically different ways of determining what and who to tax more. @Axios.com examines these differences and what they may mean for residents: www.axios.com/2026/07/09/t...
axios.com
The hidden costs of low-tax states
The next fiscal fault line: income vs. sales.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Having come from the real world, this is how I feel when I hear peers cry about academia. You have no idea how dead the grass is on the other side. With that said, you'll have to shoot me for desertion before I go over the top. youtube.com/shorts/5sskL...
youtube.com
Some people liked the trenches
YouTube video by The Rest Is History
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
great article, all-time classic diagram
Flowchart illustrating relationships between The Odds Ratio, The Risk Ratio, and The Risk Difference, centered around “20% more likely.”

The image is a triangular flowchart diagram depicting relationships among three statistical measures: "The Odds Ratio," "The Risk Ratio," and "The Risk Difference." At the center of the triangle is the phrase “20% more likely,” which connects with each of the three measures through lines. Each corner of the triangle features one of the measures, with text indicating their relationship to the center phrase, labeled as "Is" and "Is Not." The outer text at the bottom reads, "Ritual schematic to summon reviewer #2." The diagram uses black lines on a white background, contributing to a clear, concise presentation of the information.

title:

Ritual schematic to summon reviewer #2.
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Alexandra Phelan 余雪莲 @alexandraphelan.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
I often come back to the idea that this also stems from an inability or unwillingness to conceive that the counterfactual isn’t that there was no pandemic. It was unmitigated transmission and compounding illness and death. It’s like the gravity was never comprehended or the post-hoc denial too high.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
No one cares but the 2026 Mummy from Lee Cronin is hot garbage.
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Jonathan Hopkin @jonathanhopkin.eurosky.social · 02/08/2026
Few people understand that the UK university system is in crisis, but even fewer realise that many of the people losing their jobs are amongst the best in their fields
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
It is funny that this person thinks “immigrants defended the union while native born whites sought to destroy it in the name of slavery” is an argument against immigrants being Americans. This is precisely the point, nothing about being born here makes you better bsky.app/profile/aphc...
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Murshed Zaheed @murshedz.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
“Trump has rejected disaster aid for Democratic-run states at the highest rate in the 47-year history of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.” Right now people in blue states are basically paying federal taxes as if they’re colonized territories of red states. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
Trump has denied most disaster requests from Democratic-led states

A graph  showing Presidential approval rates for disaster requests from Democratic-led states and Republican-led states

Source: POLITICO's E&E News analysis of FEMA records
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Moms Clean Air Force @momscleanairforce.org · 29/07/2026
California just became the first major grid system on the planet to generate more than 50% of its electricity from solar across an entire month.
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Andy Vitek @avitek.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
"If there's one institution American voters respect, it's credit card companies" is exactly the sort of compost-brain take I've come to expect from this gremlin.
Richard Hanania tweet: Democrats are not only picking socialists as candidates, but general losers in life. 

Francesca Hong, likely to be the next candidate for governor in Wisconsin, was sued just this year by Capitol One for $30,000 in unpaid bills.

Poor, overeducated malcontents are the DSA base.
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
static.klipy.com
The Odyssey Epic The Musical Animation
ALT: The Odyssey Epic The Musical Animation
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Pwnallthethings @pwnallthethings.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
oh yeah but what does she even know about the odyssey (checks author on book) oh wait (flips through pages increasingly frantically) oh god
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
this outbreak is out of control. that will not change until international partners such as ourselves start taking it seriously. yet our top federal health officials are still focused on their little podcasts and doing xenophobic policy theater for fox news hits
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ICPSR @icpsr.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Current Events in the ICPSR Bibliography: "Japanese General Social Survey data show raising a daughter reshapes fathers' attitudes about gender equality." More: myumi.ch/DE7vB #Data #SocialScience #ICPSR
Current Events in the Bib graphic with the subtitle "Recent highlights from the ICPSR Bibliography of Data-related Literature." Headline reads, "Japanese General Social Survey data show raising a daughter reshapes fathers' attitudes about gender equality." Below, a father and young daughter smile while preparing food together in a home kitchen. ICPSR logo in the bottom left.
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Jenna Norton @jenna-m-norton.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Another great piece from @dereklowe.bsky.social. This is what stood out to me: www.science.org/content/blog... “Arguing with Kratsios (or any of the other Trump officials) about whether there has been a slowdown in scientific discovery or innovation, about the particular funding methods…”
science.org
The Assault On Science Funding Continues
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 24/07/2026
interesting to me that as the administration treats democratic-voting states like conquered or occupied territories, you don’t have pundits demanding the president respect “half the country”
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Adam Kunz @adamkunz.com · 22/07/2026
Nationalize AI yesterday www.reuters.com/technology/o...
reuters.com
OpenAI says AI models went rogue during testing, triggering 'unprecedented' breach at startup
OpenAI said on Tuesday ‌that an autonomous agent powered by its advanced AI models went rogue during a security test and triggered a hack that compromised the infrastructure of AI startup Hugging Face...
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L’Apprendista Umarell @rlkjr86.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
I don't think Homo sapiens should willingly inhabit places that are consistently 50-60° in July, let alone be allowed government representation. Lookin' at you San Fransisco.
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
monk: we were held up by two or four flying demons, m’lord interpol: well, which is it? two or four? monk: *starts sweating nervously* i’m not sure!!!
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
I cross-referenced my database of candidates against credible voter fraud cases. GOP politicians are implicated at 50x–38,000x the general public's rate. Yet even if every American voted with the integrity of a GOP candidate, it still wouldn't come close to justifying making voting one iota harder.
Bar chart titled "Voter fraud among Republican politicians vastly exceeds the public's. That rate is still just 1 in 850." The chart shows that 0.118% of Republican politicians (17 out of 14,442 DIME candidates from 2016–2026) have been credibly implicated in voter fraud. This rate is represented by a tall red bar that dwarfs the microscopic rates for the general electorate, making the politicians' rate 50x to 38,000x higher than the documented rates for everyone else.
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 17/07/2026
Trump already tried to do a coup. We should prepare for the worst. I've heard that Democratic officials are already gaming this out, but if they aren't, they should be getting regular presentations from veterans of Color Revolutions and other mass pro-democracy protests.
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McBoo-lie @mcjulie.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
2004 was when I read an article about how voters liked Kerry’s policy positions **much** more than GWB’s policy positions, but they thought, incorrectly, that GWB had those positions.
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