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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

True. There just was much data to build the estimates. The estimators (me included) did the best we could and I acknowledge maybe overly conservative

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Previous estimates were hampered by lack of data. New data allows for improvement in the estimates. We find that using the new method, Sen. Wyden, Whitehouse and King's reform proposal would raise about $88 B over ten years. This estimate is roughly $40 B higher than estimated using our old method.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Carried Interest has been a talking point in tax policy for at least 20 years. It is often viewed as a loophole that if closed would bring in revenue. At the @budgetlab.bsky.social we revisited the revenue implications of carried interest proposals with new tools.

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

trump blasts democrats for voting against his "big beautiful bill" which kicked 10 million people of their health insurance, took food away from literal children, and supercharged ice and cbp - all while giving enormous tax cuts to the rich. below is a graph showing winners/losers from the bill.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Remember- your Super Bowl winnings are currently taxable on your 1040!

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

We find that a simple per bet tax can raise $1.4B while a 10% tax on the value of the bet can raise $196B over the budget window. These taxes also reduce adolescent boy sports gambling which is currently 12% of boys aged 11-17.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

With the growth of sports gambling since 2018, we @budgetlab.bsky.social decided to work through some illustrative examples of taxes on sports gambling. We discuss how 'sin taxes' like these can raise revenue and change behavior.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

With the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, I got to work on some of my favorite things: Sports, Booze, and Taxes.

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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Elena Patel of @brookings.edu Rural counties with closer access to post offices consistently have higher levels of small-business activity, with the strongest relationships concentrated in sectors that account for a large share of rural self-employment. www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

brookings.edu

The postal network as economic infrastructure: Evidence from rural small businesses | Brookings

Elena Patel explains research highlighting the importance of the U.S. postal service in small business activity in rural communities.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

The OBBBA also reduced the number of 'simple filers' that would candidates for a direct file program:

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

The 'No Tax On' provisions in the OBBBA add to the complexity of the tax code and increase the time burden for many filers as compared to simple TCJA extension. For the lowest 2 quintile groups, OBBBA is worse than TCJA expiration in terms of time burden.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

It is important to note that any projection of the debt depends on future interest rates. Our analysis does not include any increase in interest rates due to higher debt. ~fin~

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

Over the 2025-2055 window, the scenarios of the bill (as written and perm, and w/ and w/o Byrd provisions) have costs from $19.4T (1.14% of GDP) to $21.7T (1.27% of GDP).

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

Overall, we find a similar 10 year "as written" budget cost as JCT found: $4.1T. If you make temporary provisions permanent the cost goes up to $4.5T. If provisions that are judged to violate the Byrd Rule are removed, we find the cost rises to $4.3T for "as written" and $4.6T for the perm scenario.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

New analysis out from @budgetlab.bsky.social. A look at the Senate Finance version of the reconciliation bill. We consider the effects as written and all provisions made permanent. We also consider the recent Byrd Rule issues with some provisions. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fin...

budgetlab.yale.edu

The Financial Cost of the Senate Budget Bill’s Tax Provisions

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect? The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff. 1/7

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

3.) If the provisions become permanent, the debt-to-GDP ratio would hit 200 percent in 2055. The only countries that currently have a higher debt-to-GDP ratio are Sudan and Japan.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

2.) If temporary provisions became permanent, the cost over the 2025-2034 window is $5.0 trillion and over the 2025-2055 window is $23.7 trillion. ($2.5 trillion and $13.5 trillion respectively, if possible tariff revenue is taken into account.)

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

Key takeaways from the report: 1.) As written, the tax bill under consideration by the House would add $3.4 trillion to the debt over the 2025-2034 window and $15.3 trillion from 2025-2055.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

Hey gang- we at @budgetlab.bsky.social did some work on the Ways & Means text this week: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...

budgetlab.yale.edu

Budgetary Effects of the May 2025 Tax Bill (Preliminary)

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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

There are challenging tradeoffs between revenue, competitiveness, and burden. Full implementation of pillar 2/BEPS yields the most revenue. Coupling this change with business friendly modifications could ease any competitiveness or burden concerns.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

International Tax is complicated. There are a lot of moving parts. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social did our best to explain the current state of international taxation and how revenue to the US would change under possible Pillar 2/BEPS project scenarios here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inter…

budgetlab.yale.edu

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The Tax Law Center at NYU Law @taxlawcenter.org · 04/04/2025

On 4/9, join us for a conversation about DOGE & the administrative state, featuring former Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Tax Law Center experts including former OMB Director Shalanda Young and professors @lilybatch.bsky.social & @davidkamin.bsky.social taxlawcenter.org/events/nyu-l...

taxlawcenter.org

NYU Law Forum | The DOGE Era: Impoundment, Data Privacy, and the Administrative State

Join the NYU Law Forum for a conversation about DOGE and the administrative state, including impoundment and data privacy issues. The conversation will feature Former Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally A...

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Important new work from my @budgetlab.bsky.social colleagues Harris Eppsteiner & John Ricco on the House budget resolution. Neutral illustrative policies consistent w/ committee deficit targets suggest the proposed tax + spending cuts are regressive: they benefit the top & hurt the bottom. 1/3

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Rodney Fort 🐀 @rodneyfort.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

As long time NPB follower, I found this on target and informative. www.nytimes.com/athletic/622...

nytimes.com

MLB is trying to expand in Japan. Can Japan's NPB grow in America?

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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

My group at @budgetlab.bsky.social has some good work out this morning on IRS funding and the forgone revenue of the IRS cuts the workforce by 50K workers: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/rev...

budgetlab.yale.edu

The Revenue and Distributional Effects of IRS Funding

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Baseball Reference @baseball-reference.com · 11/03/2025

In 2020, Kim Ng made history by becoming the first woman to be hired as a MLB general manager. Miami's record improved every year under Ng, culminating with a 2023 season which saw the Marlins win their most games since 2009. #WomensHistoryMonth

Kim Ng made history in 2020 as the first female general manger in Major League Baseball when she was hired by the Miami Marlins. With over 30 years of experience in baseball, Ng's career included significant roles with the Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers, where she played a key part in team success. Ng's leadership and commitment to excellence continue to inspire women in sports, demonstrating that breaking glass ceilings is possible.

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

This week, the Trump Admin is planning to implement 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico as well as an add'l 10% tariff on China. This would come on top of the 10% China tariff already put in place on Feb 1. @budgetlab.bsky.social published an analysis today of all of these tariffs together in tandem 1/8

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David Berri @wagesofwins.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

My students have used this data in their senior research papers to show there is a gender-wage gap across a host of college majors.

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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

BTW, long before Elon Musk moved to DC, the US Treasury was using machine ;earning and AI to ferret out fraud. Saved $4 billion in FY2024 (October 2024 Treasury release.) home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

home.treasury.gov

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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 03/02/2025

Ron Johnson: "Tariffs are a tax. When you tax something, you get less of it, so we'll probably get fewer imports, but then with retaliation, fewer experts. Smoot-Hawley was not particularly successful and helped sparked the Depression, so I share the markets' concern."

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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

The Tax Policy Center estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would reduce after-tax incomes by about 1 percent and that imports would fall by 40% by 2026. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...

taxpolicycenter.org

A 25 Percent Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports Would Reduce Consumers’ Average After-Tax Income by 1 Percent

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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

For no reason whatsoever, reupping Budget Lab’s research on how political risk is economic risk - and how markets haven’t been pricing in the rise in political risks budgetlab.yale.edu/news/240502/... @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

budgetlab.yale.edu

Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Hey gang- I’ve got an op-ed in The Hill today about depreciation as a budget gimmick: thehill.com/opinion/fina... The analysis from @The_Budget_Lab is here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/budge…

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Sam Thorpe @samthorpe.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

@budgetlab.bsky.social is now on Bluesky! This new nonpartisan center will be a critical part of the federal economic policy ecosystem going forward. I'm a bit biased - I was briefly involved as an RA before it had a name - but I think they're a must-follow for anyone interested in the US economy.

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

In light of recent NIPA revisions, in today's projections CBO upgraded real potential GDP by 0.8% in 2025 Q1 and by 1.5% in 2034 Q4 versus its June 2024 projections.

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Rodney Fort 🐀 @rodneyfort.bsky.social · 21/12/2024

If start with high enough rev disparity, can’t gain much by even “high” CBT. And like any limit, some will find it pays to break it. But it does suppress player wage. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/...

espn.com

Record 9 MLB teams docked $311M in luxury tax

The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees were the highest penalized among the record nine teams to be over the MLB's luxury tax threshold for 2024.

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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

I’m so excited for next season. When do pitchers and catchers report?

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