iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 3h

One thing that's interesting to me about the Susan Collins corruption case is how it suggests that modern American fascism, deep down, operates on the same principles as white collar crime. Everything runs on the shared complicity while loyalty is based on 'honor among thieves' & securing the bag.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 6h

Oh my, this could cause some serious monetary problems further down the line.

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Felix Hamer • electricfelix @electricfelix.eurosky.social · 8h

It’s over (For gas) And it’s already October 2 (In Japan) ⚡️⚡️⚡️ #alwaysbecharging asia.nikkei.com/business/aut...

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This is, again, because the problem is systemic and will require a systemic fix to our energy system to be resolved.

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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

OUCH- refinery utilization drops another 1.5% to 92.5% as refinery maintenance season ramps up, barely above last year's 91.4% (same week) PADD1A distillate remains very tight, PADD1B falls 7%

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A great example of why I've compared Zohran Mamdani's social media game to FDR's fireside chats. Politicians who communicate what they do for people in clear, understandable terms tend to do better than those who don't.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

That's one way of saying that cutting off the flow of 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies, give or take on any given day, is having growing, negative consequences for the economy that are looking like the beginnings of a systemic shock. #EconSky

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Another reason why I'm feeling increasingly optimistic these days. The US will have a big hill to climb to make up for lost time, but that hill is climbable.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Usually, companies do stock buybacks to prop up their share prices. One reason why you might do that is to prevent your share prices from dropping too much in the face of ongoing or impending bad news. Watch this space.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Again, we could've avoided so many problems if we enforced actually existing laws on the books. The case of the bailout was esp egregious as the US government owned majority stakes in multiple financial houses for a brief period and could've fired so many of the worst offenders. #EconSky

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Noel Healy @drnoelhealy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The assault on US universities didn't start in 2025. Our new paper traces the decades of corporate capture that made it possible, and why climate research is a primary target. Open access: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 27/09/2026

I love this paper so much. If I had my way every single journalist, pundit, analyst, and politician in the US would read it & then read it again. I want to quote all of it. www.frontiersin.org/journals/soc...

frontiersin.org

Frontiers | The problem with polarization research in an age of extremism

"I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block i...

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

The "attaching a weedwhacker to a dog" metaphor from @edzitron.com 's podcast keeps being the most apt description of how these companies work. When can we stop pretending that liability law doesn't apply to these guys?

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I believe the phrase she is looking for is "useless eaters". Ya know, like how it was used in Germany between 1933 & 1945.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This brings me back to a running theme from the causes of WW2 lecture that I just did called, "if Hitler & Mussolini had faced consequences earlier, then they would be footnotes instead of the monsters we all know." Maybe we should heed that lesson re Altmann et al & enforce existing liability law.

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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

NEW – Analysis: EVs are now nine times cheaper than petrol or diesel to drive in the UK ✍️ Written by @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org 📊 Data analysis by Ho Woo Nam Read here: buff.ly/VpxOLE5

EVs are now up to nine times cheaper per mile than diesel cars. Pence per mile. A chart shows diesel highest at around 21p, petrol at 20p, EV at price cap at 7p, and EV off peak lowest at under 2.5p. Source: Carbon Brief analysis, DESNZ, Ofgem, Zapmap. - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The most maddening part about writing my lecture notes on the original rise of fascism is seeing how many times that process could've been prevented if the actual laws on the books had been enforced. There's a lesson in there. #AcademicSky

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jae holzman @jael.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

At Heatmap’s Climate Week event today, Energy Secretary Chris Wright explicitly said there will not be a full-scale diesel export ban. “We will not cease exports of U.S. diesel,” Wright told attendees. Full story at the link below.

heatmap.news

Chris Wright Doesn’t Think We’ll Have a Diesel Export Ban

“We will not cease exports of U.S. diesel,” the Secretary of Energy told us at Heatmap House.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

So this is probably more stupid than a permanent ban on diesel exports, if possible. That is because the best way to hedge for a temporary decrease in supply that has a set deadline is to stockpile extra material. That means demand for an already limited good is about to spike. #EconSky #EnergySky

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Liberal Currents @liberalcurrents.com · 23/09/2026

"The audience isn't me in my little car driving by. The audience is in Washington. The audience is in New York on Wall Street. The audience is probably in Riyadh, in a sovereign wealth fund or whatever. These are the people who will keep this alive." www.liberalcurrents.com/how-the-tech...

liberalcurrents.com

How the Tech Bros of Silicon Valley Would Govern Us (Half the Answer #103, with Adrian Daub)

Taking a look at the ways that tech elites exert, and wish to exert, their power.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Of course he's going to touch the stove. He always does. Buckle up, we are all about to learn why the world of energy thinks this is a terrible idea.

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Marketplace @marketplace.org · 23/09/2026

When it comes to the price of oil, we often hear about the future price on paper. But the physical price — what people are actually paying for a barrel right now — is a lot higher.

marketplace.org

The difference between the "paper" price of Brent crude and what refiners pay for it

That’s a big gap between the financial world’s price of oil versus what people are actually paying to get a physical delivery of a barrel of oil.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I guess no one ever told him about the Triangle Shirtwaist Fire. Again, regulations exist for a reason & are ignored at great peril.

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Peter Sagal @petersagal.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

In an Uber. Driver having loud phone conversation with someone in Spanish. A little annoying, but it happens. He hangs up. Says, “Mi hermano. La Migra.” And starts weeping.

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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 23/09/2026

The owner of a top BBQ joint in Texas decided to cut brisket, the top-selling item, from the menu rather than institute a $10 markup for customers. The decision was fueled not just by the skyrocketing price of brisket but by inflation.

washingtonpost.com

A top Texas smokehouse is cutting brisket from its menu amid soaring beef prices

Butter’s BBQ in Sinton, Texas, says brisket is eating up 70 percent of its total grocery costs.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I see that finance has learned absolutely nothing from the Crash of 1929. Who is ready to relearn why buying on margin is bad, at scale, that doing it for outright gambling is even worse, and letting markets self-regulate nearly always winds up reproducing the exact same problems? #EconSky

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 23/09/2026

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro saying that the AI trade has been “dead money” for three months, and that it’s inflationary, meaning (as I’ve discussed multiple times) that the more debt they raise the more expensive debt becomes and the more they build data centers the more expensive it gets

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity
X.com
On the Al front, the trade has been dead money for more than 3 months now. The metrics I am following (token expenditures and GPU lease rates) are all flat to down. The price of memory (DRAM) seems to be the only thing that is still going up.
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Al Metrics
Daily Data. Source: FMRCo, Bloomberg
• GS Al basket
387
359
56%
283
249
200
175
150
•Silicon Data LLM token expenditure index (50d chg)
•Silicon Data H100 GPU rental index (50d chg)
•Silicon Data A100 GPU rental index (50d chg)
Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26
Nov-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Apr-25
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Data as of 9/20/2026. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Jul-26
70%|
60%
50%
40%
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20%
0%
-10%
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Sep-26
A Fidelity
8:45 PM • 9/22/26 • 32K Views

Jurrien Timmer &
@TimmerFide... 2h S •
Yes, Al will change our lives (for the better l trust) and down the road it may well unleash a productivity miracle that raises the economy's non-inflationary speed limit enough to keep the world's mounting debt burden sustainable. But until then the buildout is inflationary with an unknown return for the companies who are investing trillions into compute. The demand fo capital (equity and debt) from corporates is rising at a $3.3 trillion clip.
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Crowding Out?
Monthly Data. Source: FMRCo, Bloomberg, Fed FoF Report.
non-financial corporate debt issuance (Sbi) equity share redemptions (buybacks + M&A)
Shading: US deb/GDP
inflation-adjusted
- total corporate net issuance (debt + equity)
housing bubble
+$7,924
bubble
Jun-20, +$6,597
+$3,462
dot.com bubble
Jun-00, +$3,233
+$3,999
Al capex
Jun-26, +$3,251
+$3,129
debt issuance + M&A
debt-equity arbitrage
+$123
-$197
debt-equity arbitrage
-$2.054
$2,175
-US Treasuries held by China
-$3.485
-US Treasuries held by Japan
—US Treasuries held by Fed's SOMA
—US Treasuries & agencies held by US banks
-$2,911
-$3,449
• $4,597
$3,602
$4,800
$2,400
$1,104
$1,200
$618
$600
1997
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2001
2003
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2007 2009
2011
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$300
2025
2027
Data as of 9/20/2026. Past performance is no guarantee of future resuts
2029
•Fidelity
L71
50

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ProPublica @propublica.org · 22/09/2026

Sen. Susan Collins helped steer millions in federal defense contracts to Navatek, whose CEO illegally funneled thousands of dollars to her campaign. The FBI sought to launch a probe and was eyeing Collins and other lawmakers. Then Trump gutted the unit in charge. THREAD 🧵

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Again, a diesel export ban would be economically disastrous, any relief it might prove will be temporary while the consequences are incredibly ugly and lasting.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Oh look, an avoidable yet totally stupid policy move that sounds good but will have detrimental, systemic consequences. Also known as Trump's entire energy policy.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Hey everyone if you want more answers for why renewables are the future, check out the conclusion to my four-parter on why oil volatility is the guaranteed and how there's little that fossil fuels can do to stop the spread of renewable energy. #ClimateSky #GreenSky #EnergySky

the-spark.ghost.io

Oil volatility is here to stay Part 4 - The electrotech revolution

As has been established in the first three parts of this series, the oil industry is facing something of a perfect storm of demand and capacity destruction. The combination of war and oil shock have e...

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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

🔥 HOT OFF THE PRESS For the first time ever, @iea.org has published a dedicated Electrification Report. An absolute treasure trove of data. Here are the key takeaways that stood out to me when I peer-reviewed it. 🧵

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

the-spark.ghost.io

Oil volatility is here to stay Part 4 - The electrotech revolution

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Here's David Ellison's statement on his successful Paramount-WBD. Thanks Newsom "for his support throughout this process." State AGs were on track to kill the the merger with litigation and delay. Is Newsom giving up on the presidency and instead pursuing a post-gov career as Friend of Oligarchs?

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The National @scotnational.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Tomorrow's front page 📰 New poll finds majority of Scots want indyref2 as Marra admits we have the right to decide our own future

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Here's the rub: This *would* produce a significant, short-term dip in diesel prices. That dip would soon be utterly swamped by the inflation that everyone else will experience when the global diesel price jumps again. The promise of that dip might also sway Trump into doing it despite the risks.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Once again, I must repeat that electrotech is the future and carbontech is the past. Anyone trying to impede our transition to renewable energy is at best woefully misinformed and at worst is actively impeding social, economic, and technological progress so they can protect a dying industry.

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David Dayen @ddayen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The worst part of Bonta caving on the Paramount merger is that it's a big flashing signal to every other company that there is no antitrust enforcement in America and you can bully your way into getting whatever you want. It's a monumentally bad decision.

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Liberal Currents @liberalcurrents.com · 21/09/2026

"Ken Paxton...is not only a notorious, rancid bigot who has made trans oppression his calling card with his Stasi-like bounties for trans people using the bathroom of their gender, but who has shown himself to be an unpopular and corrupt slimeball that has alienated even his own base."

liberalcurrents.com

Talarico (D) Is Just a Letter to Me Now

After folding on trans rights, James Talarico does not have my respect. Honestly, fuck him. And yet, Ken Paxton (R) must lose.

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Karl Bode @karlbode.com · 21/09/2026

Conditions don't work to fix the problems caused by media consolidation, especially at the hands of authoritarian zealots. They rarely are meaningful or consistently enforced. this is why, as they say, we can't have nice things

cnbc.com

Paramount and state AGs will settle lawsuit, allowing Warner Bros. merger to proceed, reports say

The antitrust lawsuit threatened to delay Paramount's acquisition until mid-2027 and to cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars in fees.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Speaking of volatility, here's another reason why oil is staying volatile which I alluded to recently on my site, the Spark, but wasn't apparent at the time when I wrote on how oil infrastructure is doomed for the near-term. Turns out ships with a five to ten year wait list are hard to replace.

wsj.com

A Shortage of Oil Tankers Is Threatening to Keep Gas Prices High

Record shipping rates through the Strait of Hormuz could offset falling crude prices.

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

That's 100% incorrect. Solar & wind are cheaper, more reliable, and have faster build times by a whole factor of time (weeks & months vs months & years) than all fossil fuels. If anything, sticking with oil, coal, & gas is a recipe for volatility & poverty, while renewables ensure prosperity.

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Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

New Treasury Intergenerational Report has said "we cant model the impacts outlined in the National Climate Risk Assessment so we'll do a conservative estimate across 4 broad sectors". If this isn't at least one to two orders of magnitude out, I'll be monkeys uncle treasury.gov.au/sites/defaul...

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Ryan C. Smith @rcsmitheco.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

When the history of energy transition is written, there can be no doubt that the oil industry went so all-in on maximizing profit that they are risking unprecedented death & destruction. What makes it worse is they've known of this growing danger for decades & persisted. #ClimateSky #GreenSky

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Max Fawcett @maxfawcett.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I am told all the time by folks affiliated with the fossil fuel industry that Asian demand for LNG will grow "for decades". Yeah, about that:

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Amy Westervelt @amywestervelt.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

In the progressive era, muckrakers took down various powerful entities without ever having access, it can be done! Having investigated companies that won’t talk to me I can confidently say it is very possible to report on people who don’t invite you to their press conferences. This is not to say…🧵

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