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Matti Pesu

@pesumatti.bsky.social
2K followers 359 following 102 posts

Senior Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs Finland, Northern Europe, NATO

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Reposted by Matti Pesu
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
2/ @pesumatti.bsky.social in the first brief of the series: Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was the driver which prompted Finland to cling more tightly to the rules-based order. Now, this world is eroding from within. icds.ee/en/small-sta...
icds.ee
Small States Series. Reforming to Preserve: Finland and the Rules-Based International Order  - International Centre for Defence and Security
Like other small western democracies, Finland has benefited immensely from the rules-based international order established after World War II: both the universal framework that revolved around the Uni...
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 02/04/2026
Uusi Ulkopoditiikkaa-jakso! 🔔 Johtaako myrskyisä maailmanpolitiikka Nato-katumukseen vai tiiviimpiin liittolaissuhteisiin? Tällä viikolla studiossa kahlataan Suomen ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan sakeissa vesissä. Tähtivieraana jaksossa @pesumatti.bsky.social. Linkit jaksoon kommenteissa! 🎧
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
1. My latest @fiia.fi analysis calls for Northern Europe to consolidate as a political force, as European security enters a new phase. fiia.fi/en/publicati...
fiia.fi
Northern Europe as a political force: Consolidating the region’s role in European security
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Northern Europe has become a more cohesive and influential actor in European security. As the continent’s security enters a new, uncertain phase, this mo...
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 31/03/2026
📝 New FIIA Comment! Northern Europe’s role in European security has grown significantly. @pesumatti.bsky.social explores how closer coordination through the Northern Group could help turn the region into a more cohesive force. Read here ⤵️ fiia.fi/en/publication/northern-europe-as-a-political-force
Northern European leaders sitting around a round table at a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) meeting, with an image of Volodymyr Zelenskyy displayed on a screen.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Comeback The @ulkopolitist.fi väreihin yhden vieraskynän ajaksi. Käsittelen esseessäni Suomen asemoitumista eurooppalaistuvassa Natossa ja hahmotan, millä logiikalla Suomen tulisi liittolaissuhteitaan kehittää. ulkopolitist.fi/2026/03/03/s...
ulkopolitist.fi
Suomi etsii asemaansa eurooppalaisemmassa Natossa — The Ulkopolitist
Suomi etsii asemaansa eurooppalaisemmassa Natossa — The Ulkopolitist
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
The Ulkopolitist @ulkopolitist.fi · 03/03/2026
ulkopolitist.fi/2026/03/03/s...
ulkopolitist.fi
Suomi etsii asemaansa eurooppalaisemmassa Natossa — The Ulkopolitist
Suomi etsii asemaansa eurooppalaisemmassa Natossa — The Ulkopolitist
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
The Ulkopolitist @ulkopolitist.fi · 03/03/2026
Yhdysvallat siirtää vastuuta Euroopan puolustuksesta Naton eurooppalaisille jäsenmaille. Lue Matti Pesun analyysi Suomen asemasta eurooppalaisemmassa Natossa. Linkki vieraskynään kommenteissa.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 26/02/2026
This week at a FIIA seminar, @profonderco.bsky.social, @pesumatti.bsky.social and Katja Creutz discussed the complexity of democratic foreign policy-making on nuclear security in the twenty-first century. Watch the recording ⤵️ fiia.fi/en/tapahtumat/europes-nuclear-umbrella
Matti Pesu, Katja Creutz and Michal Onderco on stage.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 30/01/2026
Venäjän laaja-alainen vaikuttaminen Suomeen 2000-luvulla -hankkeen loppuraportti avaa Venäjän Suomeen kohdistaman laaja-alaisen vaikuttamisen keskeisiä tavoitteita, keinoja ja vaikutuksia. Tutustu raporttiin ⤵️ fiia.fi/julkaisu/venajan-laaja-alainen-vaikuttaminen-suomeen-2000-luvulla
fiia.fi
Venäjän laaja-alainen vaikuttaminen Suomeen 2000-luvulla | FIIA
Tutkimus kartoittaa Venäjän 2000-luvulla Suomeen kohdistaman laaja-alaisen vaikuttamisen eri muotoja sekä niiden vaikutuksia suomalaiseen yhteiskuntaan ja päätöksentekoon.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Sinikukka Saari @sinikukka.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti julkaisi eilen Venäjän laaja-alainen vaikuttaminen Suomeen 2000-luvulla -tutkimuksen. Siinä kuvaamme, kuinka Venäjä pyrki hyödyntämään kahdenvälisen suhteen dynamiikkaa ja erityispiirteitä – ja onnistuikin siinä osittain. Kannattaa lukea! fiia.fi/julkaisu/ven...
fiia.fi
Venäjän laaja-alainen vaikuttaminen Suomeen 2000-luvulla | FIIA
Tutkimus kartoittaa Venäjän 2000-luvulla Suomeen kohdistaman laaja-alaisen vaikuttamisen eri muotoja sekä niiden vaikutuksia suomalaiseen yhteiskuntaan ja päätöksentekoon.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
The final publication of this year, co-authored with Ville Sinkkonen, examines Finland’s historical and contemporary role in great-power competition. The chapter appears in The Palgrave Geopolitical Atlas. ➡️ link.springer.com/rwe/10.1007/...
Promotional picture of the Palgrave Geopolitical Atlas.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Tomorrow, the heads of state and government of Finland, Sweden, the Baltic states, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria convene in Helsinki for the Eastern Flank Summit - an emerging coalition aimed at strengthening frontline perspectives in Europe, first and foremost within the EU.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 04/12/2025
📝New FIIA Briefing Paper! NATO’s newly extended frontline – from the European Arctic to the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea – adds up to an “aggregated deterrence” against Russia, write @pesumatti.bsky.social, Iro Särkkä and @linnainmaki.bsky.social.⤵️ fiia.fi/en/publicati...
"The overarching objective of aggregated deterrence is to impose strategic dilemmas on Russia by compelling it to disperse its military assets across multiple theatres". A quote from FIIA Briefing Paper NATO's extended frontline, written by Matti Pesu, Iro Särkkä and Joel Linnainmäki. On the right there is a picture of the soldiers on a meadow.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Iro Särkkä, Joel Linnainmäki and I claim in our new @fiia.fi Briefing Paper that NATO’s extended frontline - which should be seen as a layered zone of strategically exposed areas - has become the strategic fault line of Euro-Atlantic security. 1/4
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Iro Särkkä, Joel Linnainmäki and I claim in our new @fiia.fi Briefing Paper that NATO’s extended frontline - which should be seen as a layered zone of strategically exposed areas - has become the strategic fault line of Euro-Atlantic security. 1/4
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Ulkopolitiikan tutkimuksen apurahahaku on jälleen auki. Rahoitusta haettavana Suomen ulkopolitiikkaa koskevaan väitöstyöhön. Haettavissa myös stipendejä väitöstutkimukseen liittyviin slaavilaisten kielten - esim ukrainan - opintoihin. Lisätietoja: ulkopolitiikantutkimus.fi/7201
Ulkopolitiikan tutkimuksen säätiön väitösapuraha haettavissa 1.10.2025-31.10.2025.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 19/06/2025
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti katsoo toimineensa asianmukaisesti Oliver Stubbin rekrytointiprosessissa. UPIn johtajan Hiski Haukkalan lausunto korkeakouluharjoittelijan rekrytointiin liittyen: fiia.fi/ajankohtaist...
fiia.fi
Ulkopoliittisen instituutin johtajan Hiski Haukkalan lausunto korkeakouluharjoittelijan rekrytointiin liittyen - FIIA - Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti noudattaa kaikessa toiminnassaan hyvää hallintotapaa.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
In his first big speech, Hegseth, in a message to Indo-Pacific allies, cited (the PATHETIC) Europe as a positive example of increasing defense spending. www.ft.com/content/bee0...
ft.com
Pete Hegseth warns Chinese military action against Taiwan ‘could be imminent’
Beijing says US defence secretary is trying to instigate confrontation and stir up the region
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
"Yet, a paradox exists. Currently, French nuclear doctrine doesn’t align with another ambition: European strategic autonomy. If the engagement with European allies must “go further,” France’s doctrine should change as well" warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...
warontherocks.com
Everything Changes but Nothing Changes: Can France Overcome its Own Nuclear Doctrine? - War on the Rocks
In a recent interview broadcast live on French television, President Emmanuel Macron declared: Ever since there has been a nuclear doctrine since Charles
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 25/04/2025
Miten eurooppalaista ydinpelotetta voidaan vahvistaa, ja mitä riskejä ja mahdollisuuksia siihen liittyy? UPIn paneelissa aiheesta keskustelivat Tapio Juntunen @juntta.bsky.social sekä UPIn tutkijat Jyri Lavikainen, Iro Särkkä ja @pesumatti.bsky.social Katso tallenne ⬇️ fiia.fi/en/tapahtuma...
Iro Särkkä (on the left), Jyri Lavikainen, Tapio Juntunen and Matti Pesu in FIIA panel called the possibilities and challenges of the European nuclear deterrence.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 03/04/2025
Miten Suomi turvataan? Ensimmäinen #FIIAForum2025 paneelissa syvennyttiin tähän kysymykseen Outi Holopaisen, @pesumatti.bsky.social, @heljaossa.bsky.social, Harri Mikkolan ja Iro Särkän kanssa. Nykyisessä turvallisuustilanteessa painottuu erityisesti 🇫🇮 kokonaisturvallisuusmalli ja resilienssi.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Otto Svendsen @ottosvendsen.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Gen Cavoli in Senate Armed Services hearing: "From my perspective, as both SACEUR and EUCOM Commander, I have all the access and basing rights I need (in Greenland) to prosecute operations in the High North" www.c-span.org/program/sena...
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 03/04/2025
Lue lisää päivän keskustelujen aiheesta tuoreesta FIIA Research Paperista, jonka ovat kirjoittaneet Harri Mikkola, @pesumatti.bsky.social, Tuomas Iso-Markku ja @charlyjsp.bsky.social. ⤵️
fiia.fi
Miten Suomi turvataan? | FIIA
Kansallisessa turvallisuudessa Suomen tulee varautua pahimpaan ja hyödyntää omia vahvuuksiaan, liittolais- ja kumppaniverkostoaan sekä EU:n mahdollisuuksia.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Uudessa @fiia.fi -tutkimuspaperissamme arvioidaan perustavanlaatuista kysymystä: miten Suomi turvataan? Analysoimme tekstissä valikoituja kansallisen turvallisuuden kulmakiviä, joiden varaan Suomi turvallisuuttaan rakentaa. fiia.fi/julkaisu/mit...
fiia.fi
Miten Suomi turvataan? | FIIA
Kansallisessa turvallisuudessa Suomen tulee varautua pahimpaan ja hyödyntää omia vahvuuksiaan, liittolais- ja kumppaniverkostoaan sekä EU:n mahdollisuuksia.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
"Instead of building forces for a range of potential scenarios across multiple theaters, allies are being asked to focus primarily on fulfilling roles earmarked to them under the operational plans." www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
atlanticcouncil.org
Why NATO’s Defence Planning Process will transform the Alliance for decades to come
The NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) is little known outside defense ministries. But today this process is driving the most consequential shift in European and Canadian defense in the last two gen...
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Uudessa @fiia.fi -tutkimuspaperissamme arvioidaan perustavanlaatuista kysymystä: miten Suomi turvataan? Analysoimme tekstissä valikoituja kansallisen turvallisuuden kulmakiviä, joiden varaan Suomi turvallisuuttaan rakentaa. fiia.fi/julkaisu/mit...
fiia.fi
Miten Suomi turvataan? | FIIA
Kansallisessa turvallisuudessa Suomen tulee varautua pahimpaan ja hyödyntää omia vahvuuksiaan, liittolais- ja kumppaniverkostoaan sekä EU:n mahdollisuuksia.
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Pekka Virkki @pekkavirkki.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
”Pesun mukaan kahdenvälisiä suhteita voi tiettyyn pisteeseen asti korostaa, mutta lopulta Suomi on osa Eurooppaa. Mikäli Trump päättää, että Eurooppa saa jäädä omilleen, ei siinä Suomen erityissuhteella ole paljon sijaa.” @pesumatti.bsky.social
iltalehti.fi
Asiantuntija: Suomen johto ostaa nyt aikaa Trumpin suhteen – Tehtiinkö presidentistä virhearvio?
Tekikö Suomen poliittinen johto virhearvion Trumpista? Nyt valtionjohto ostaa aikaa presidentin suhteen. Etenkin yksi asia Trumpin käänteissä yllätti: ”En kyllä odottanut.”
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Reposted by Matti Pesu
Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Three years of Zeitwende have failed to even put Germany onto the mental horizon of researchers not focused on Germany in Northern Europe. This piece by colleague @pesumatti.bsky.social has many interesting elements, but one of them to me is that Germany only gets a mention as a potential liability
rusi.org
Two Years in NATO, Finland is Searching for a Plan B
Just two years after joining NATO and forging an alliance with the United States, Finland finds itself compelled to consider alternative plans to ensure its security.
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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 21/03/2025
Miten Suomi turvataan muuttuvassa turvallisuusympäristössä? Siihen syvennytään ensimmäisessä #FIIAForum2025 paneelissa 3.4., kun lavalle astuvat Outi Holopainen, Harri Mikkola, @heljaossa.bsky.social ja @pesumatti.bsky.social. Iro Särkkä moderoi. Ilmoittaudu livestriimiin ➡️ fiia.fi/tapahtumat/f...
FIIA Forum 2025 ad photo with a pattern of purple polygons. An aerial photo of Finland's coastline is framed into three of the polygons. The text "FIIA Forum 2025: The key challenges and direction of Finnish foreign and security policy, LIVESTREAM 3 April 2025, 14:00-17:30 EET " is written in the middle of the photo. The text "#FIIAForum2025" is on the upper right corner.
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Staffan Dahl @staffand.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
Very interesting commentary highlighting ”Nordic Plus” (UK and/or France) as the best option for Finland.
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
"What would a possible [Finnish] Plan B look like? It can be summed up as ‘Nordic Plus’... Finnish leaders will likely turn to Sweden, Norway, the United Kingdom, and, potentially, France." rusi.org/explore-our-...
rusi.org
Two Years in NATO, Finland is Searching for a Plan B
Just two years after joining NATO and forging an alliance with the United States, Finland finds itself compelled to consider alternative plans to ensure its security.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
'Ukraine's experience demonstrates that Finland can only successfully deter Russia with external support' write @pesumatti.bsky.social and Dr Tomas Wallenius in the latest #RUSICommentary.
rusi.org
Two Years in NATO, Finland is Searching for a Plan B
Just two years after joining NATO and forging an alliance with the United States, Finland finds itself compelled to consider alternative plans to ensure its security.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
New piece by Tomas Wallenius and me: Two years into NATO, Finland faces an ironic reality. For many, joining was the final step in anchoring Finland to the West. Now, with Trump's uncertain commitment to Europe, it must consider alternatives to its US alliance.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
"[Trump] and his allies see the cost of defending Europe as too high, given other needs. Coming to some kind of accommodation with Moscow, in this view, would allow the United States to bring home more troops or shift national security resources toward China" www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/u...
nytimes.com
Trump’s Pivot Toward Putin’s Russia Upends Generations of U.S. Policy
As peace talks opened in Saudi Arabia, President Trump made clear that the days of isolating Russia are over and suggested that Ukraine was to blame for being invaded.
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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
Europe should view Trump’s wrecking ball approach to Nato and negotiations with Russia on the Ukraine war as “an opportunity”, not just a threat, President Emmanuel Macron will tell a hastily convened informal summit of European leaders at the Elysée Palace today. 1/
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
"One reason European imaginations are running wild is that Trump clearly has no oven-ready peace plan. 'The Americans are completely chaotic,' says one insider. Ukraine policy is a cacophony... no one knows who speaks for Trump." www.economist.com/internationa...
economist.com
Donald Trump’s assault on Europe
His invitation to Vladimir Putin to make a deal over Ukraine has thrown the transatlantic alliance into turmoil
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 16/02/2025
The debate on potential European troop deployment to Ukraine lacks clarity. Would this be a tripwire force, a warfighting unit, a peacekeeping mission, or all of the above? What would be its mandate and size? Several key questions (understandably) remain unanswered.
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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 14/02/2025
Europeans cannot assume that America's military presence on the continent will last forever, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said today.
politico.eu
American troops in Europe are not ‘forever,’ US defense chief warns
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has a “stark” message for European allies.
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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 20/01/2025
🌍 FIIA employs around 50 researchers who work on different themes of international affairs. Their expertise covers topics such as Finnish foreign and security policy, NATO, the EU, Russia, international climate politics, and geoeconomics. Make sure to follow FIIA's experts ⤵️
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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 27/01/2025
Onko Donald Trumpin uusi presidenttikausi Amerikan kulta-aikaa vai kaaoksen alku? Maria Lindén & @sinkkonenville.bsky.social keskustelevat USAn sisä- ja ulkopolitiikasta Trumpin 2. kaudella #UPILive -lähetyksessä ke 29. tammikuuta. @annilindgren.bsky.social juontaa. ➡️ fiia.fi/tapahtumat/u...
UPI Live: Trumpin toinen kausi - Amerikan kulta-aikaa vai kaaoksen alku? -lähetyksen mainoskuva. Taustalla on kuva Valkoisesta talosta, ja oikeassa alareunassa mikrofoni-ikoni. Tapahtuman otsikko ja aika "keskiviikko 29.1.2025 klo 10-11" on kirjoitettu keskelle.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Should this be the analysis among European security officials, the urge to convene a summit and launch NATO activities in the Baltic Sea region seems quite perplexing - unless security agencies have failed to convince political leaders about their views. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
washingtonpost.com
Accidents, not Russian sabotage, behind undersea cable damage, officials say
An emerging consensus among U.S. and European security services holds that accidents were the cause of damage to Baltic seabed energy and communications lines.
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Ewa Stenberg @ewastenberg.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
www.politico.eu/article/lith...
politico.eu
Lithuania pledges to hit Donald Trump’s 5 percent defense spending target
“Difficult times require bold decisions [and] leadership. We call on our allies to follow this lead,” says Baltic nation’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys.
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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 16/01/2025
The 2nd Trump administration is likely to embrace disruption and chaos to achieve revolutionary rather than evolutionary change, @charlyjsp.bsky.social & Ville Sinkkonen say in a new FIIA Briefing Paper. They provide four lenses for observing the administration's strategy. ➡️ fiia.fi/en/publicati...
Citation from FIIA Briefing Paper by Charly Salonius-Pasternak and Ville Sinkkonen: "In terms of foreign policy, a reduced set of checks on Trump's power could have detrimental consequences in the global arena." Picture of Donald Trump speaking on a podium is on the right side of the quote.
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David Priess @davidpriess.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
And the Finnish Institute of International Affairs is now on Bluesky at @fiia-upi.bsky.social! No organization in Europe punches above its weight more on international security and related issues. Good to see you here @haukkala.bsky.social, @pesumatti.bsky.social, and the entire FIIA team.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Make sure to follow FIIA's account for top insights on all things international affairs.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
1) Leaders of the Baltic Sea countries will convene in Helsinki today for a summit addressing regional security and threats against critical infrastructure. The region is a potential NATO-Russia flashpoint — an area where two geopolitical spaces meet, creating friction.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
"The Danish government wants to convince Trump, including through the messages passed to his advisers this week, that his security concerns can be addressed without claiming Greenland for the U.S." www.axios.com/2025/01/11/d...
axios.com
Scoop: Denmark sent Trump team private messages on Greenland
Trump's comments about taking control of Greenland caught Copenhagen and many other European capitals off guard.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Yes, the United States has not always fully lived up to the ideals it strives to represent as a nation. However, entertaining blatant territorial ambitions runs counter to the very principles at the core of its foreign policy.
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Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
The legacy of the Biden administration will be hotly debated. While Trump's first term ushered in a new era of great-power competition, Biden restructured alliances and partnerships in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, forging closer ties between these two regional structures. www.ft.com/content/2579...
ft.com
Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’
The outgoing US secretary of state on putting pressure on Beijing over Ukraine, the ‘road map’ for Syria — and why America must co-operate in order to lead
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