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Jane Green

@profjanegreen.bsky.social
9.7K followers 509 following 987 posts

Nuffield College, Oxford Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre President, British Polling Council Election Analyst, ITV News Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Reform have been ahead in the polls for a long time, winning elections repeatedly where the Tories have gone backwards, and are still ahead of the Tories in polls even while they struggle. So…. They’re basically the opposition to people out there. No-one watches PMQs!
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Massive thank you to those who have shared this week: @peston.bsky.social @itvpeston.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=4A17... William Hague writing today in The Times: www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... @officialedballs.bsky.social on Political Currency with George Osborne: t.co/GW3JsbHl2e
youtube.com
Why the Man City verdict matters beyond football | Is a Tory comeback possible? | ITV Peston Live
YouTube video by Peston
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The battle isn’t just for popularity but for *relevance* and *viability*. The Tories need to mount a credible alternative platform on the economy and need signals that they can win elections somewhere – anywhere – once more. Their problems are, then, even worse than they first appear.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This really matters, especially for tactical bloc voting. If right-voters wish to vote for a viable right party to stop a left bloc party, they’re much less likely to think that party is now the Conservatives. Combined summary here: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Graph 2: Among the right, Reform UK have replaced the Conservatives as the viable local party on the right (Research by Dr Marta Miori and Jane Green, Nuffield College)
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Using new @yougov.co.uk data, and comparable samples in England and Wales with the BES in 2024, we can see that Reform are now seen as more viable locally on the right. Voters are also more uncertain, making the battle for viability a critical contest. See the proportions change ...
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
2. Viability .... @martamiori.bsky.social and I show that, whereas after the 2024 general election most voters saw the Conservatives as the main *viable* party in their constituency on the right, that was no longer the case by May 2026 (post local elections).
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This is highly unusual by comparable standards: in 1997 and 2010, both new parties in opposition, also having lost power following economic crises, began to benefit from negative economic perceptions. See: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve... But that’s not all! …
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Graph 1: ‘The Economic Vote’ is now benefiting Reform, not the Tories (Research by Dr Justin Robinson and team, Nuffield College)
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The first chart shows the association between negative economic evaluations (things have got worse in last 12 months) and support for the three parties, w/ BES data. The line for Reform post-2024 should be a dark blue line if the Tories are seen by voters as relevant. Reform are benefiting instead.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
1. The Economic Vote @justinrobinsonpol.bsky.social Geoff Evans, Zack Grant and I found that the traditional reward-punishment dynamic between the government and opposition on the economy now favours Reform and doesn’t benefit the Conservatives.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
What do we show? … Two key things.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
1. Conservatives need to mount a much more serious challenge as an alternative government 2. They shouldn’t be assuming that Badenoch’s personal ratings are some magic bullet. 3. They are not winning anywhere, and that message is getting through to voters. This should be a wakeup call…
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
NEW! Mega thread on the Tories... Work from the NPRC team @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social shows two critical electoral evaluations that spell much deeper trouble for the Tories. Follow @justinrobinsonpol.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social as this work builds. Why do the findings matter? …
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Dave Hill @davehillonlondon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
My long read about the by-election and its various battlegrounds: www.onlondon.co.uk/holborn-st-p... Mentions @profjanegreen.bsky.social, @lewisbaston.bsky.social a bunch of politicians and one of my sons. Might also interest @robfordmancs.bsky.social
onlondon.co.uk
Holborn & St Pancras: Something for everyone, not much for some
Labour expects to win, the Greens are hoping for the best and the right-wing parties have a ruck all of their own
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
In a glass half empty way, surely its TERRIBLE for Kemi Badenoch that only c.50% of 2024 Conservative voters think she'd make the best PM.
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Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
We're going to get a lot of this. And we should take the numbers with an enormous dollop of salt. The negotiations would be tough, the terms less favourable than those we rejected in 2016. These numbers will move ' however 'mega' the poll! www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...
theguardian.com
Half of UK wants to rejoin EU and backing it could drive up Labour vote, megapoll finds
Exclusive: Findings will bolster those in No 10 who want to negotiate on re-entry but some senior figures remain wary
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Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 01/10/2026
On rejoining the EU Support: 55% Oppose: 34% ... but on the conditions of single currency and Schengen membership Support: 35% Oppose: 43% via YouGov, Jun 2026 britainelects.substack.com/p/is-rejoin-...
britainelects.substack.com
Is Rejoin happening anytime soon?
Ten years on from the EU referendum
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UCL Constitution Unit @conunitucl.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
How should a national commission on electoral reform be designed? On Tuesday, the Prime Minister announced a national commission on electoral reform. @alanrenwick.bsky.social argues that such a body should have three key features, and emphasises the care that should be taken. Read it 👇️
blogs.ucl.ac.uk
How should a national commission on electoral reform be designed?
On Tuesday, the Prime Minister announced a national commission on electoral reform. In this article originally published in the Conversation UK, Alan Renwick explains that such a body should secure public involvement, not aim for a particular result and listen to the experts. He also emphasises that any change to the electoral system should be carried out with the greatest possible care.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I think this would ultimately be good for Farage/Reform, who would presumably be viewed as stronger on ‘no going back’ than the Tories and who would be buoyed by riling against the ‘anti-democratic establishment’. Albeit on an angry, vocal minority.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
We (BES colleagues) have just finished a book showing how Brexit crystallised the realignment of the electorate, and how its persistence beyond 2024 depends on whether the parties appeal to the same groups … Seems that’s a ‘yes’ then!
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Sharon Graham said removing the triple lock is morally wrong in the context that the better option is going after billionaires. Frankly, all cuts could be framed as morally wrong given that starting assumption if you prefer billionaire wealth taxes. If we DON'T assume that, what is morally right?!
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Cheaper energy in 10 years with the grid? Long-term politics is essential but it is hard to swallow while prices climb every day. I hope he will say something - anything - about the price of fuel, even if it’s just acknowledging.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
More housebuilding? Big challenge to sell the growth story and the ‘prices should be cheaper’ story because no-one with an expensive asset wants asset depreciation.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What does electoral reform mean? Most people won’t know - it takes ages for people to respond to choices under new incentives….
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
For example, is the triple lock really so untouchable, electorally? Older voters aren’t only concerned for their incomes! The risks of social care are very real too, as are the worries for younger generations.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
From the speculation so far Burnham is going to go big politically and set some cats amongst pigeons today. Interesting challenge for the lobby who specialise in politics way more than they do policy.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Well done you!
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Miranda Green @greenmirandahere.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Is it really 5 party politics or a load of 2 party politics in every area (and crucially a battle to be 1 of those 2)? Great piece based on new research from @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social of Nuffield College - www.ft.com/content/28ea...
ft.com
Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast
The battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Thank you @miriamsorace.bsky.social
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Its so important people distinguish between: a) Trump's politics are popular; and b) Trump is in office because of institutional capture and capitulation The right in Britain really needs to understand how unpopular he is, and how particular the institutional story is.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Incredibly clear from @alfie-stirling.bsky.social here on BBC, who we are delighted to be working with @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
yes, though we can argue about 'fluke' and whether Labour are simply benefiting as a large party in a system that, by design, advantages large parties, and of course by how hated the Conservative government was.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Economically right is an interesting choice, I think, because I imagine from my data that these voters are pro-redistribution. But they are more affluent grads, that's for sure.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Yes, as well as the geographic concentration of their local election and general election voters.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This comes down to local government, does it not?
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Oh wow. Just wow...
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Why would they be most clued up? I can imagine so if they have been less geographically mobile but are they more engaged? Perhaps...
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I suppose so, yes! Good point. With the clause that this is very uncharacteristic of the electoral system.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I guess this is a geographic effect? I.e. they know who to back locally?
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
But we could still see a vote intention split in the polls that then reverts to 'anyone who can win here to stop the right' in a GE.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Here's the seats to votes ratios for 2024! In a paper by @martamiori.bsky.social and me:
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Yes, both Labour and Lib Dems got incredibly disproportionate outcome of seats to votes, by historic comparison. FPTP has not given the Lib Dems anything close to this ratio in consecutive elections.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Labour or Tories... strikes me as under-explored!
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
While its true that the Lib Dems got a whopping seats to vote share in 2024 and could do again on static polling, it is genuinely intriguing that they're not doing better nationally given the Conservatives are chasing Reform voters. Where are the more affluent voters going, and why?
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I feel like Westminster got hooked on the adrenaline of constant instability.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I'll take psephological Galadriel w/out megalomania...
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I enjoyed 'psephological Gandalf' though...
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Hi Ian. I sent you a message… thanks, Jane
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