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politikfelix.bsky.social

@politikfelix.bsky.social
157 followers 595 following 15 posts

International Relations, German Politics, EU Affairs. Usual caveats. He/him

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Reposted by @politikfelix.bsky.social
Patrick Kaczmarczyk @patrickkaczmarczyk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Wir lesen über die 1930er Jahre und fragen uns, wie es sein konnte, dass weite Teile der Medien, konservative Eliten und Industrielle den Nazis ihren Aufstieg ermöglichten. Heute erleben wir in Echtzeit, wie solche Prozesse in ihrer Variante des 21. Jahrhunderts ablaufen.
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Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
🇫🇷🇩🇪present united front on how to empower 🇪🇺to better deal with Chinese trade practices threatening Europe's industrial base.
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Patrick "Inverted Vibe Curve" Blanchfield @patblanchfield.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
new wolfenstein looks like shit
its pete hegseth splaying his arms christlike at a podium with all sorts of americana bunting thats got a distinct fash aesthetic
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Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
„Man könnte sich als bürgerlicher Mensch fragen: Was sagt es eigentlich über die sogenannte politische Mitte aus, wenn mehr als 40% der Wähler unter 35 Jahren der Linken Stimme geben – womöglich nicht weil, sondern obwohl sie antisemitische Positionen in den Reihen duldet?“. @bertpsch.bsky.social
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Die Landtagswahlen zeigen, dass die ehemaligen Volksparteien kein programmatisches Angebot mehr haben, das Wähler:innen anspricht. Sind sie nicht mehr im Rennen um das Amt der Ministerpräsident*in, erhalten sie kaum noch Stimmen. Übrig sind dann nur noch wenige eher ältere Stammwähler:innen.
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Rafael Mentges @mentges.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
New Boston Consulting Group report: "Europe has a sizable lead in high-quality research in AI, quantum technologies, space, energy and propulsion, and biotechnology and human enhancement technologies."
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Matthew Bunn @matthew-bunn.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Worth reading the whole thread. A critical step to take: as AI shortens decision time, policy should lengthen it. All nuclear-armed states should move away from launch on warning or rapid counter-strike, planning to ride out and respond later, leaving hours or days for decisions.
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
NEW: EU accuses China of seeking to reshape global order in stark new strategy paper China trying to ‘reshape the global order in line with their interests’, says EU in some of bloc’s strongest official criticism of Beijing
scmp.com
EU accuses China of seeking to reshape global order in stark new strategy paper
China trying to ‘reshape the global order in line with their interests’, says EU in some of bloc’s strongest official criticism of Beijing.
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Thomas Wiegold @wiegold.de · 15/07/2026
Hybride Kriegführung
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politikfelix.bsky.social @politikfelix.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Wrote a short piece on the implications of the #NATO summit for European allies. One thing stays abundantly clear: It’s Trump’s NATO – Europe just lives in it. Europeans should act accordingly and increase their strategic independence as much as possible. egmontinstitute.be/the-ankara-s...
egmontinstitute.be
The Ankara Summit: It’s Trump’s NATO - Europe just lives in it - Egmont Institute
Participants at last week’s NATO summit were presented with brand new revolvers, courtesy of Turkish President Erdogan, and a not so new question: How to safeguard European security with NATO […]
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
It is a small amount of money, for now, but it will be interesting to see which organizations will receive the money. Moreover, it is yet another step in the active attack on liberal democracy by the U.S. as was announced in its National Security Strategy.
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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 13/07/2026
What a complete disaster this war is. As far as I can tell, literally none of its aims were achieved. Regime still in power, possibly strengthened. Nuclear programme set back, but Tehran undoubtedly even more determined to get nukes. As for Iranian missile capacity: Just watch the news.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I'm obviously pleased to see TKMS has won with their bid supplying up to twelve Type 212CD submarines for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project. Of course the real work is only about to start. Recall how the entire effort has now quadrupled the original figure for Berlin & Oslo.
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Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Robert Kagan on why Europe matters for liberal democracy, why appeasement has to stop (and Mark Rutte needs to shut up). (Quite a reversal by the inventor of the Mars/Venus-cliché!) www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 19/06/2026
🧵This @notus.com bulletin inadvertently nails it. The “madman theory” isn’t about “unpredictability” in the Trump sense. It’s about *insensitivity to costs*. mailchi.mp/notus/madman...
White House officials have long said Trump's unpredictability is an essential part of his dealmaking — the main reason he's been able to get rivals to concede in ways other presidents haven't. But now Trump has to embrace a framework for talks that overwhelmingly benefit Iran, and his personal volatility is unlikely to tilt the discussions in the U.S.'s favor.
Iran, experts say, has learned to focus on what Trump does and not just what he says.
And after two U.S.-Israeli assaults in less than two years since the president's return to office, Iran has seen that depleting stocks of U.S. weaponry "didn't move the needle for Trump," but hiking gas prices by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz did, Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told NOTUS.
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François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Did anyone notice that the US-Iran MOU doesn't even mention "uranium"? And more importantly, did US negotiators notice?
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Deva Woodly @devawo.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Poli Sci fact: people do not & have never had ideologically consistent beliefs. I will add this is most pronounced in times of uncertainty when people want change but do not have a developed ideological or practical program for change. That’s what political parties & other civic endeavors are for.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Fantastic new OECD data comparing international subsidies in key sectors. "For Chinese firms, almost 60% of their global market share gains can be explained by the subsidies received." Worth keeping in mind when people insist Europe’s competitiveness problem is mainly about overregulation.
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Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 14/05/2026
The U.S. Army has canceled a planned deployment of roughly 4,000 soldiers to Poland, offering no public explanation. Defense News ties it to an Army budget shortfall of $4–6B, driven in part by National Guard deployments to DC & troops sent to the southern border. www.defensenews.com/news/your-ar...
defensenews.com
US Army abruptly cancels deployment of 4,000 soldiers to Poland
The Army has abruptly halted a planned deployment to Poland, bringing U.S. personnel numbers in Europe to pre-2022 levels — before Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Defence ministries still are quite distant to the EU. Despite a growing role of the EU in defence industry and financing, I looked at yesterday's meeting of EU defence ministers, and, well: -> only 11 countries send their defence ministers, the rest lower ranking representatives.
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Greatest Democracy in History!
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Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
‘At its average monthly rate of advance so far this year, it would take Russia more than three decades to seize full control of the Donbas, which the Kremlin has set as a condition for ending the war.’ www.nytimes.com/2026/05/10/w...
nytimes.com
Putin’s Forces Are Barely Inching Along on the Battlefield
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
The electoral decline of social democratic parties is a well-studied phenomenon. If you want to understand what is happening to Labour, I recommend this (open access) edited volume by the world's leading scholars on this question. Other countries have elections, too. doi.org/10.1017/9781009496810
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Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
We have a new paper on fiscal consolidation and political instability in advanced economies. Fiscal consolidation carries political costs: it lowers government approval and increases the likelihood of protests and government crises. However, costs vary with economic conditions and policy design.
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Thorsten Faas @wahlforschung.thorstenfaas.de · 07/05/2026
Was übrigens gerade wieder passiert (wie auch bei der Ampel): die Regierung verliert die eigenen Leute.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Lots of attention again on Chinese investment in the EU. I think most miss the most important observation. Chinese FDI in the EU is tiny, a fraction of what it was 10 years ago. But EU's trade deficit with China is ballooning, up another 30% this year. The implications should be obvious. 1/
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Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Germany has a Military Strategy now - summary here.
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Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Depleted U.S. precision munition stockpiles—and the 4–5 years required to replenish them—could coincide with a period of relatively peak Russian military power vis-à-vis NATO under a scenario in which a tenuous 2027 ceasefire in Ukraine frees Russian forces to reconstitute and redeploy.
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Egmont Institute @egmontinstitute.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
📄𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗣𝗨𝗕𝗟𝗜𝗖𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 by Felix Koesterke @egmontinstitute.bsky.social “The EU is talking strategy: Make it worthwhile” #EuropeanSecurity #GrandStrategy #EU #Geopolitics 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 👉 tinyurl.com/jvm4j68z
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Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
The disastrous Trump-Netanyahu war is the gift that keeps on giving for Putin. Unsanction Russian oil.☑️ Cement crucial role in providing fertilizers.☑️ Sky high oil prices refilling Kremlin's depleted finances.☑️ Trump questioning NATO to deflect blame.☑️
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Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
‘The Pentagon is considering whether to divert weapons intended for Ukraine to the Middle East as the war in Iran depletes some of the U.S. military’s most critical munitions, according to three people familiar with the matter.’ www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Pentagon considers diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East
A shift would highlight the growing trade-offs required for the U.S. to sustain its war with Iran as the conflict depletes the military’s critical munitions.
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Alberto Alemanno @alemanno.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Europe spent years debating whether the energy transition was affordable. Spain quietly answered the question: gas now sets its electricity price in only 7% of hours. Strategic autonomy doesn’t arrive via summit communiqués. It’s built in advance — in wind farms, solar parks, and grid investment
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Georg ‘Maverick’ Löfflmann @gloefflmann.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
The Donroe Doctrine explained: No more forever wars, but also I can go to war forever, but I don’t have to, because we already won this war, which also isn’t a war, but also is totally a war. We fight this war to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme that we obliterated in the last non-war, but also
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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 05/03/2026
From FT comments
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António Costa @eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu · 04/03/2026
I have just held a call with President Pedro Sánchez to express the EU’s full solidarity with Spain. The EU will always ensure that the interests of its Member States are fully protected.
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Georg ‘Maverick’ Löfflmann @gloefflmann.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Looking at the record of military interventions since 9/11, the Western ability to determine political outcomes on the ground in the Middle East via the use of force seems limited, to put it mildly.
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Georg ‘Maverick’ Löfflmann @gloefflmann.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
We are two months into this year and all I can say is, it’s a good time to study International Relations and International Security. We’re seriously cooking at the moment. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
France offers to station nuclear assets across Europe for the first time
President Emmanuel Macron lays out nuclear doctrine of ‘forward deterrence’
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Strategically it’s incredibly clever the EU is eroding the key levers of the green transition. As a net oil and gas importer being susceptible to repeated geopolitical supply and terms of trade shocks is just such a great place to be.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
This framing of 'the EU has never done multiple speed Europe' seems like a product of way too short institutional memory. Since the 1980s, major EU integration often happened in avantgarde groups, be it the Euro, Schengen, EU Patent, EU Public Prosecutor. The real change is a different one.
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Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Don’t we all love the strategic ambiguity of a rotating red button 🤪
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Jonas Schaible @beimwort.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Carney in Davos mit einer sehr guten Rede, einem sehr schlüssigen Programm - und ein paar Passagen, die deutsche Regierungsrealität noch nicht spiegeln:
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Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Sweden's paper of record says in light of where Trump is taking the US it's necessary to discuss "joint Nordic nuclear weapons – perhaps together with Germany". www.dn.se/ledare/ingen...
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Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Happy Monday! How about some end-of-year optimism? I think pundits often mistake optimism for naiveté, but it's clearly not the same. We can learn a lot from positive developments. That's why I wrote some down: geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/end-of-yea...
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
End-of-year optimism: what went well for European security and defence in 2025?
22 December 2025
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Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
‘Russia’s military and security services give Putin regular updates that inflate Ukraine’s casualty numbers, stress the country’s resource advantages, and play down tactical failures, two officials said.’ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
How upbeat battlefield briefings are fuelling Putin’s confidence
Russian generals’ positive reports on Ukraine have convinced the Kremlin the war is going in its favour
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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have. How so? Short thread:
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Jan Fichtner @janfichtner.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
📢 must-read new paper! 👇
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 02/10/2025
🧵 As I posted the other day, I can't wait for the foreign policy community to argue over the merits of prioritizing 'defense of the homeland.'
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