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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Let Them Eat Pie: Addressing Sample Selection in Multiparty Elections,” Ali Kagalwala, @tmqm.bsky.social, Guy Whitten, and Yongzhi Xu introduce a novel maximum likelihood approach that accounts for the biases that come from sample selection in a compositional setting.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “The Power of Prognosis: Improving Covariate Balance Tests with Outcome Information,” Clara Bicalho, Adam Bouyamourn, and Thad Dunning show how balance tests can lead to false conclusions and develop tests that upweight covariates associated with outcomes.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Monotone Ecological Inference,” Hadi Elzayn, @jacobsgoldin.bsky.social, Cameron Guage, Daniel Ho, and Claire Morton characterize the biases of, and relationships among ecological inference (EI) estimators for identifying group means and differences.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “On the Foundations of the Design-Based Approach,” P. M. Aronow, Austin Jang, and @mollyow.bsky.social propose a design-based framework for analyzing randomized trials and survey sampling that avoids strong claims about the data-generating process.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Post-Treatment Problems: What Can We Say about the Effect of a Treatment among Sub-Groups Who (Would) Respond in Some Way?,” Chad Hazlett, Nina McMurry, and Tanvi Shinkre propose the treatment reactive average causal effect (TRACE).

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls,” @bogatyrev.bsky.social and @lstoetze.bsky.social examine synthetic control methods (SCMs) and make the case for jointly estimating synthetic controls across multiple compositional outcomes.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities,” @wpmarble.bsky.social and Josh Clinton provide a framework for incorporating known population data to improve estimates of small subgroups in MRP models.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Text as Behavior,” @owasow.bsky.social proposes using features of open-ended tasks to study text as behavior. Stats like the number of characters can approximate effort and significantly improve estimation.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Democracy Manifest or Democracy Latent? A Unified Framework for Identifying Regime Types and Transitions,” @omerorsun.bsky.social and Muhammet A. Bas develop and validate a framework to study regimes that addresses measurement uncertainty and missing data.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Using Multilingual Language Technology to Classify Open-Ended Survey Responses: Conceptions of Democracy in a Cross-Cultural Survey Setting,” S. Dahlberg, L. Dürlich, S. Axelsson, Y. Zhao, and J. Nivre examine the use of LMs in analyzing open-ended survey responses.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Adaptive Randomization in Conjoint Survey Experiments,” @jennahgosciak.bsky.social, @dmolitor.bsky.social, and @ianlundberg.bsky.social develop an adaptive design for conjoint experiments that summarizes the range of effects of one attribute as a function of all others.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “From Faces to Politics: Vision-Language Models (Sometimes) Link Visual Demographic Characteristics to Ideological Labels,” S. Jeon, M. Lee, @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social, and @calvinklai.bsky.social ask how models use demographics as shortcuts for ideological attribution.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Correcting Nonignorable Nonresponse Bias in Turnout Estimation Using Callback Data,” Xinyu Li, Naiwen Ying, Kendrick Qijun Li, Xu Shi, and Wang Miao look at the role of callback data as a way of adjusting for nonresponse bias in estimating voter turnout.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Inference at the Data’s Edge: Gaussian Processes for Estimation and Inference in the Face of Extrapolation Uncertainty,” Soonhong Cho, Doeun Kim, and Chad Hazlet illustrate the value of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for capturing counterfactual uncertainty.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “A Multilevel Model for Coalition Governments: Uncovering Party-Level Dependencies Within and Between Governments,” Benjamin Rosche extends the Multiple Membership Multilevel Model to represent the multilevel structure of coalition government data.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Accounting for Protest Voting in the U.S. Congress,” Anthony Fowler and Jeffrey B. Lewis estimate a model of congressional voting that allows for non-ideological protest voting. This has significant implications for roll-call estimates of ideology.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “A Dynamic Discrete Choice Approach to Attitude Stability and Constraint,” @alecia-nepaul.bsky.social and Steven Stern introduce a discrete choice framework to identify influential attitudes within attitude systems.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Currently in FirstView: in “Refining Gamson: The Isometric Log-Ratio Transformation and Portfolio Proportionality in Multiparty Governments,” Lanny Martin and Georg Vanberg propose the isometric log-ratio (ILR) as an alternative to the additive log-ratio (ALR) transformation.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Currently in FirstView: in “Modeling Hierarchical Spatial Interdependence for Limited Dependent Variables,” Ali Kagalwala and Kankyeul Yang propose a class of spatial hierarchical models with binary outcomes to account for spatially independent and spatially dependent unobserved group effects.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

Currently in FirstView: in “Potential and Pitfalls of Audio as Data for Political Research: Alignment, Features, and Classification Models,” @r-mestre.bsky.social and Matt Ryan provide solutions to challenges encountered when analyzing audio data in political science.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Survey Quality and Acquiescence Bias: A Cautionary Tale,” Andrés Cruz, Adam Bouyamourn, and @joeornstein.bsky.social discuss the dangers of drawing inferences from low-quality survey datasets. They replicate an experiment on acquiescence and misinformation.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Extractive versus Generative Language Models for Political Conflict Text Classification,” P. Brandt, S. Alsarra, F. D’Orazio, @dagmarheintze.bsky.social, L. Khan, S. Meher, @javierosorio.bsky.social, & M. Sianan review and benchmark the ConfliBERT model.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis for Unmeasured Confounding in Causal Panel Data Models,” Licheng Liu and Teppei Yamamoto develop a Bayesian sensitivity analysis (BSA) method for causal panel data analysis.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Currently in FirstView: In “Stay Tuned: Improving Sentiment Analysis and Stance Detection Using Large Language Model,” Max Griswold, Michael Robbins, and @sociologian.bsky.social evaluate fine-tuning strategies to improve LLM performance using social media data surrounding the 2020 election.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Analyzing Political Text at Scale with Online Tensor LDA,” @sarakangaslahti.bsky.social, Danny Ebanks, @jeankossaifi.bsky.social, Anqi Liu, @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social, and Anima Anandkumar introduce a topic modeling method that scales linearly to billions of documents.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring Politicians’ Public Personality Traits Using Computational Text Analysis: A Multimethod Feasibility Study for Agency and Communion,” @lukasbirkenmai1.bsky.social and Clemens Lechner introduce an approach to infer politicians’ personality traits from text data.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Nationally Representative, Locally Misaligned: The Biases of Generative Artificial Intelligence in Neighborhood Perception,” Paige Bollen, @joehigton.bsky.social, and @msands.bsky.social test which populations Generative AI is most representative of.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Survey Professionalism: New Evidence from Web Browsing Data,” Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg, @tiagoventura.bsky.social, Tiago Ventura, @jonathannagler.bsky.social, @ericka.bric.digital, & Magdalena Wojcieszak provide evidence on survey professionalism across three samples.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Meaning Beyond Numbers: Introducing the Plot Staircase to Measure Graphical Preferences,” @talbotmandrews.bsky.social, Justin Curl, and Markus Prior examine how visual characteristics influence preferences. They find that people prefer increasing trends.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Codebook LLMs: Evaluating LLMs as Measurement Tools for Political Science Concepts,” @ahalterman.bsky.social and @katakeith.bsky.social show how “off-the-shelf” LLMs have limitations in faithfully following real-world codebook operationalizations.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “A Statistical Model of Bipartite Networks: Application to Cosponsorship in the United States Senate,” @adelineylo.bsky.social, Santiago Olivella, and Kosuke Imai develop a statistical model of bipartite networks and offer an open-source software package for researchers.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Generative AI and Topological Data Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data,” Badredine Arfi constructs an approach to analysing longitudinal panel data which combines topological data analysis and generative AI applied to graph neural networks (GNNs).

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models,” Erin Lipman, Scott Moser, and Abel Rodriguez extend spatial voting models with a hierarchical Bayesian approach that estimates legislators’ ideal points.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring Media Criticism with ALC Word Embeddings,” @cbarrie.bsky.social, Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social, and Mossaab Bagdouri introduce a method for estimating media criticism using à la carte word embeddings which requires only minimal computational resources.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology,” @kevinlcope.bsky.social develops a method for estimating the ideology of federal judges. He introduces the Jurist-Derived Judicial Ideology Score (JuDJIS) which is based on over 20,000 evaluations by a sample of jurists.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Currently in FirstView: “Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos.” @marvins.bsky.social and @fhopp.bsky.social examine 810 party manifestos in 4 languages to study how different instruments lead to different results for extracting moral foundations.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision,” Jonathan Colner describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free software. This method is useful for poorly-formatted sources that require researchers to extract each item by hand.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

Currently in FirstView: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” by David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, and Håvard Hegre. The authors discuss bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) as an alternative to models that lack uncertainty estimates.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design,” @gustavodiaz.org and Erin Rossiter study how experimental design choices can increase precision when estimating treatment effects. Specifically, they examine block-randomized and pre-post designs.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

Currently in FirstView: "Estimating the Local Average Treatment Effect Without the Exclusion Restriction." @zmarkovich.bsky.social introduces the Compliance Probability Weighting estimator, which enables inference about the LATE without relying on monotonicity or principal ignorability.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables,” Kevin M. Quinn, Guoer Liu, Lee Epstein, and Andrew Martin clarify how most estimators justified by a selection-on-observables assumption are special cases of a general weighting estimator.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Accessibility and Equity in the Research Process: Gender Bias in Elite Interview Recruitment,” Margaret A. T. Kenney and John Salchak study how researcher identity affects the research process. Specifically, they look at how this influences elite interview recruitment.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social‬ present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Currently in FirstView: “Fixed Effects, Lagged Dependent Variables, and Bracketing: Cautionary Remarks” by Matei Demetrescu, Manuel Frondel, Lukas Tomberg, and Colin Vance investigates a bracketing property used to yield bounds on treatment effects from fixed effects and lagged DV models.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Attention and Political Choice: A Foundation for Eye Tracking in Political Science,” Libby Jenke and Nicolette Sullivan explain what eye tracking allows researchers to measure and how these measures are relevant to political science questions.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

Currently in FirstView: “Mapping (A)Ideology: A Taxonomy of European Parties Using Generative LLMs as Zero-Shot Learners.” Riccardo Di Leo, @zengchen.bsky.social, @eliasdinas.bsky.social‬, and @redatamtam.bsky.social see if ML can obtain measures of party ideology that match the validity of experts.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

Currently in FirstView: “Constructing Vec-tionaries to Extract Message Features from Texts: A Case Study of Moral Content.” @kaipingchen.bsky.social and and colleagues introduce “vec-tionaries” which are embedding-based tools for measuring latent features of messages.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 15/08/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “Seeing Like a District: Understanding What Close-Election Designs for Leader Characteristics Can and Cannot Tell Us,” Andrew Bertoli and Chad Hazlett examine the limitations of politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs.

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

We are pleased to announce the 2025 Editors’ Choice Award for the paper “How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies” by @apoorvalal.com‬, @maclockhart.bsky.social, @yiqingxu.bsky.social‬, and @garyzu.bsky.social.

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