Sign in

Will Marble

@wpmarble.bsky.social
964 followers 304 following 59 posts

Political scientist at the Hoover Institution at Stanford || williammarble.co

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Will Marble
Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Currently in FirstView: In “Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities,” @wpmarble.bsky.social and Josh Clinton provide a framework for incorporating known population data to improve estimates of small subgroups in MRP models.
122
Reposted by Will Marble
Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
New in @polanalysis.bsky.social, @wpmarble.bsky.social and Josh Clinton have an extension of MRP for small area estimation of polling data calibrated with election results. If you toss around the term "logit shift" in casual conversation, this one is for you www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
1238
Reposted by Will Marble
Michael Hankinson @hankinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Building affordable housing ➡️ support for funding housing. Nearby homeowners ⬆️ support; renters ⬇️ support. Both are “the policy adjacent”—secondhand recipients & drivers of policy feedback. Forthcoming @ajpseditor.bsky.social ( doi.org/10.1111/ajps...) w/ A. Magazinnik & @msands.bsky.social 1/9
24621
Reposted by Will Marble
Rory Truex @rorytruex.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Yesterday I recorded an ep with @danieltavana.bsky.social, one of the few political scientists with an active research agenda on Iran. We spoke at length about the regime, divisions in Iranian society, the prospects for democracy in Iran. One of my best episodes to date. Link in replies.
193
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
This post has some more discussion of other methods for incorporating known ground-truth margins in an MRP framework, based on some validation exercises in osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
153
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Folks doing public opinion research: I wrote an R package called `calibratedMRP` that implements methods to calibrate MRP estimates to known geographic-level ground truth (e.g. election results) github.com/wpmarble/cal...
github.com
GitHub - wpmarble/calibratedMRP: An R package with tools to generate small-area estimates from survey and administrative data
An R package with tools to generate small-area estimates from survey and administrative data - wpmarble/calibratedMRP
3215
Reposted by Will Marble
British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
NEW - Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - cup.org/3YSsX4N - @rachelmyrick.bsky.social & @wpmarble.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract from a scholarly article about the perceived foreign policy failures of the US in Afghanistan and its impact on global perceptions of US leadership. The text mentions a survey across 24 countries and findings on changes in favorability after the fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021.
052
Reposted by Will Marble
shira mitchell @shiraamitchell.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
blog post: 3rd helpings of the logit shift You have multiple outcomes, but only some have aggregate truth to shift to. How can we calibrate our estimates of p(y_1, y_2 | X) to aggregate data about E[y_1] ? @wpmarble.bsky.social and Josh Clinton have ideas !
042
Reposted by Will Marble
Mashail Malik @mamalik.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵
312240
Reposted by Will Marble
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social: Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain. Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government. www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
11639206
Reposted by Will Marble
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 07/10/2025
Why most polls overstate support for political violence www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
gelliottmorris.com
Why most polls overstate support for political violence
Misperceptions about the popularity of violence increase public support for it — but you can help change that.
116969
Reposted by Will Marble
Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Absolutely momentous day for California. We're turning the corner on housing at the very moment America needs us to.
08315
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Job/life update: Today was my last day at Penn, where I've been lucky to teach amazing students and work with great colleagues for the past 3 years. This fall, I'll join @hooverinstitution.bsky.social as a Hoover Fellow—I'm excited to join a vibrant, interdisciplinary community of scholars there.
260
Reposted by Will Marble
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
I made an event timeline to try to make sense of all the federal overreach at @georgemasonu.bsky.social and whoo boy. When you lay it out like this, the executive over reach comes into focus. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Authoritarians are attacking universities. Here's how it's going at one public school.
I'm publicly documenting an event timeline to help bring order to the chaotic nature of events and help other schools plan the responses they are likely going to need.
12389222
Reposted by Will Marble
Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Wow. A group of top scholars at Harvard just sent a letter to its president, Alan Garber, warning against surrendering to Trump. Signatories include Steven Levitsky, Dani Rodrik, Ryan Enos, Theda Skocpol, and Steven Walt. Someone forwarded it to me. Read it here:
9237841220
Reposted by Will Marble
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Universities often serve as "anchor institutions" that deeply affect the character of their communities. In a new paper, we estimate how (and when) the establishment of a college influences local political and civic life. 🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...
Screenshot of title page.

"The Long-Run Effects of Colleges on Civic and Political Life" by Michael J. Andrews, William Marble, and Lauren Russell.

Abstract: Social theorists and education advocates have long argued for the civic benefits of education. As large, durable institutions, universities are especially likely to affect the civic life of their communities. We investigate how the establishment of a university alters the civic and political trajectory of the surrounding area. For identification, we leverage historical site selection processes in which multiple locations were considered for new colleges. We bring together data on social capital, political preferences, and elections to assess the long-run impacts of college establishment. Communities with colleges exhibit higher levels of civic engagement and greater social trust today, relative to “runner-up” locations without colleges. These counties are also more politically liberal — a gap that has grown substantially since 2000. Our findings suggest understanding universities as place-based policies that shape the long-run civic and political development of their communities. They also shed light on current political battles over higher education policy.
13010
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
Nothing more American than getting a head start on work by taking a meeting in your car while you commute to work by yourself
020
Reposted by Will Marble
Alexander Berger @albrgr.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Very cool paper about how important social networks are in driving movement conference.nber.org/conf_papers...
022
Reposted by Will Marble
Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
I just posted a new paper on @ssrn.bsky.social, titled "The Chadha Presidency". Here's the link, and I'll post the abstract in the next post. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
The <i>Chadha </i>Presidency
<p><span>Where is Congress? Why hasn’t it reined in some of the worst abuses of the Trump Administration? This Article argues that a significant part of the ans
1821268
Reposted by Will Marble
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 19/07/2025
Been a busy year in the data mines.📊 Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem. All charts free to use:
open.substack.com
On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward
A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.
11222102
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Universities often serve as "anchor institutions" that deeply affect the character of their communities. In a new paper, we estimate how (and when) the establishment of a college influences local political and civic life. 🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...
Screenshot of title page.

"The Long-Run Effects of Colleges on Civic and Political Life" by Michael J. Andrews, William Marble, and Lauren Russell.

Abstract: Social theorists and education advocates have long argued for the civic benefits of education. As large, durable institutions, universities are especially likely to affect the civic life of their communities. We investigate how the establishment of a university alters the civic and political trajectory of the surrounding area. For identification, we leverage historical site selection processes in which multiple locations were considered for new colleges. We bring together data on social capital, political preferences, and elections to assess the long-run impacts of college establishment. Communities with colleges exhibit higher levels of civic engagement and greater social trust today, relative to “runner-up” locations without colleges. These counties are also more politically liberal — a gap that has grown substantially since 2000. Our findings suggest understanding universities as place-based policies that shape the long-run civic and political development of their communities. They also shed light on current political battles over higher education policy.
13010
Reposted by Will Marble
Nate Ela @nateela.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Horrendous. In attempting to reclassify Head Start as “welfare” rather than education, the Trump administration is trying an end run around Supreme Court precedent that protects undocumented children from limits to education based on their immigration status. 🧵
194
Reposted by Will Marble
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
War on universities, war on science, war on knowledge
12349110
Reposted by Will Marble
Dan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years. NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
10927931518
Reposted by Will Marble
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
A reminder of how the number of centrifuges in Iran soared after Trump’s 2018 JCPOA withdrawal. @brendannyhan.bsky.social
381118429
Reposted by Will Marble
Indivisible ❌👑 @indivisible.org · 14/06/2025
There are nearly 100,000 people at the rally in Philadelphia. #NoKings
115133892674
Reposted by Will Marble
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
She is saying, in effect: "We are going to liberate the city from its democratically elected leadership using the military"
20031131072
Reposted by Will Marble
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
What would you say if you saw it in another country? A senator from a coequal branch of government dragged away by security to prevent him from asking a question of a Cabinet official and arrested
719670
Reposted by Will Marble
kim yi dionne (she/her) @dadakim.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Eyewitness account from someone arrested at a (small, peaceful) protest in L.A. The arrests of journalists should be particularly alarming: open.substack.com/pub/smotus/p...
open.substack.com
Arrested in L.A.
My interview with a fellow scholar who was recently arrested for participating in an anti-ICE protest
085
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
On the campaign trail, this was JD Vance's suggestion for making childcare more affordable: "Maybe grandma and grandpa [want] to help out a little bit more, or maybe there’s an aunt or uncle that wants to help out a little bit more." (www.vanityfair.com/news/story/j...)
020
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
The claim that Trump is just "enforcing immigration law" is ridiculous given that the administration has repeatedly *violated immigration law* by detaining/deporting people without due process.
Screenshot from WSJ op-ed by Tom Cotton: 'Meanwhile, incredibly, Democrats and the liberal media have again called this outbreak of violence “mostly peaceful protests,” while in the same breath blaming the riots, arson, and looting on President Trump for enforcing immigration law. The New York Times described “largely peaceful” riots with fireworks fired at police, cars set on fire, and more than 150 arrests.'
18420
Reposted by Will Marble
Adam Rose @adamrose.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Just spotted in the NYT: "A New York Times reporter was struck with a nonlethal round by officers late Sunday in downtown Los Angeles. The reporter was treated at a hospital but not seriously injured." That's at least five journalists I've heard of who ended up in ER or urgent care over weekend.
nytimes.com
Some Journalists Are Injured While Covering L.A. Protests
1425898
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
There's not even a pretense here that people should be arrested for breaking a law — just for opposing Trump politically. Naked authoritarianism.
130
Reposted by Will Marble
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
This is a fever dream. The city is not under migrant occupation. This whole thing kicked off because ICE began an intense operation across the city to raid Home Depots and nail salons and places where random undocumented immigrants might be going about their day working a job.
19278172044
Reposted by Will Marble
Dan Hopkins @dhopkins1776.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Since 2016, 1 notable pro-GOP shift has come from Latinos. How did Latinos shift towards a party taking strong positions against unauthorized immigration? @wpmarble.bsky.social & I use population-based panel surveys to help answer that in a new paper: osf.io/preprints/so... Quick 🧵
1127
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
New paper w/ @dhopkins1776.bsky.social on immigration attitudes and the GOP swing among Latinos ⬇️
120
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
please apply / encourage your students to apply!
010
Reposted by Will Marble
Carolyn E Holmes @carolyneholmes.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
How did we get here: Afrikaner Refugees edition. A 🧵 (backed up by research)
418585
Reposted by Will Marble
Arpit Gupta @arpitrage.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
📢Heavily revised working paper on AI + Zoning — with @alexbartik.bsky.social and Dan Milo, we have a new draft of our paper which expands on our method to understand housing regulations with AI. Incudes a new public data release with more housing regulation data:
49126
Reposted by Will Marble
Daniel Laurison @daniellaurison.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
The presidents of 200 US colleges declare: "As leaders of America’s colleges, universities, and scholarly societies, we speak with one voice against the unprecedented government overreach and political interference now endangering American higher education." Good! www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c...
aacu.org
A Call for Constructive Engagement | AAC&U
A Call for Constructive Engagement
13794273
Reposted by Will Marble
Roxana Daneshjou, MD, PhD @roxanadaneshjou.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Stanford’s president and provost release a statement supporting Harvard. stanforddaily.com/2025/04/15/l...
stanforddaily.com
Stanford president and provost back Harvard in funding fight
The president and provost said Harvard’s rejection of government demands was “rooted in the American tradition of liberty.”
201719402
Reposted by Will Marble
Eoin Higgins @eoinhiggins.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
MIT following Harvard's lead here
571328456678
Reposted by Will Marble
Erica Chenoweth @chenoweth.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
The 245-year-old American Academy of Arts & Sciences releases a statement rejecting assaults on scholarly and cultural institutions, the rule of law, & open inquiry--and calls on all Americans to "help fortify" democratic civic culture. www.amacad.org/news/board-s...
A statement rejecting Trump's assault on universities, hospitals, and laboratories, censorship of scholarly and cultural institutions, curtailment of press freedom, and attempts to purge inquiry or ideas that challenge prevailing policies. The statement also reaffirms truth, freedom, constitutional values, and calls on all citizens to help fortify a democratic civic culture.
91165390
Reposted by Will Marble
Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
If you bow to these ppl they will just destroy you faster www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Trump Administration Wants to Install Federal Oversight of Columbia University
In an unusual move, the government is aiming to legally bind the school to changes as they negotiate over federal funding.
2379
Reposted by Will Marble
Hans Lueders @hanslueders.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
I recently spoke to the New York Times about how domestic migration and demographic change contribute to the rise of the AfD in Germany. Check out the article here: www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/w...
nytimes.com
How a Demographic ‘Doom Loop’ Helped Germany’s Far Right (Gift Article)
Understanding the Alternative for Germany’s success in Sunday’s elections.
171
Reposted by Will Marble
Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 25/10/2023
Proud that my piece on respectability is officially out at APSR. It’s open access! The piece matters a lot to me bc it reflects my strong belief that Black people’s political & social lives warrant deep study & deserve their place in our field’s “top” journals. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
The Politics of Respectability and Black Americans’ Punitive Attitudes | American Political Scienc...
The Politics of Respectability and Black Americans’ Punitive Attitudes - Volume 117 Issue 4
1128180
Will Marble @wpmarble.bsky.social · 19/10/2023
Big thanks to Matt for having me on the Science of Politics podcast to talk about my working paper on educational polarization!
061
Reposted by Will Marble
Dan Thompson @dthompson.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
Private donors gave more than $350M to support election administration in 2020. Many critics argued that these grants swung the election from Trump to Biden. In a new paper, @apoorvalal.com and I find that these grants did not provide Democrats a noticeable advantage. bit.ly/lal_thompson...
69252