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Paul MacDonald

@pkmacdonald.bsky.social
403 followers 178 following 82 posts

Professor of Political Science at Wellesley College. Focus on war, peace, and strategery. Proud father of Field Marshal von 9th Grader and Vice Admiral Lord 7th Grader

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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
“What a change from the 1984 Tom Clancy novel The Hunt for Red October. Today, it seems more like the hunt for the nearest mechanic.” www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Nato chief Mark Rutte jokes about 'limping' Russian submarine
Moscow denies one of its vessels had to surface in the English Channel because of technical issues.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Kudos to the photo intern who put a photo of UC Berkeley’s famous Sather Gate for a story ostensibly praising Stanfurd
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
As scary as this moment is, remember that support for political violence went DOWN after the July 2024 assassination attempt against Trump, not up www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1... We need to make the same thing happen this time.
pnas.org
The July 2024 Trump assassination attempt was followed by lower in-group support for partisan violence and increased group unity | PNAS
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump led to widespread concern that the event would escalate political violence between U.S. partisans. Whil...
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Don’t you go and make me feel sympathy for John Bolton
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
The last thing 2025 needed was an empirical test of the stability-instability paradox
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.
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Paul Staniland @pstaniland.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
Escalatory dynamics kicking in hard - air bases being tit-for-tat hit with missiles. Reports of IAF ops in Pakistani airspace, Pak attacks on Indian missile storage. Like when the war games start spinning into very bad outcomes. Hopefully US, PRC, Saudis burning up the phones. Deeply alarming.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
I'll just take this moment to point out that the US Institute of Peace, just a few weeks ago, contained one of the finest concentrations of US expertise on India and Pakistan, and crisis management in South Asia.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
“A few days later, a cadet sent her an email thanking her for her courage. He wrote that it was first time he had ever seen someone stand up for something that directly cost them.” We’re so degraded as a nation, we’ve forgotten what a profile in courage looks like… www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...
nytimes.com
The Pentagon’s Culture Wars Strike West Point
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
No worries, I’m sure they’ll only cut the woke parts of the CIA www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Trump administration plans major downsizing at U.S. spy agencies
The CIA plans to cut 1,200 positions, along with thousands more from other parts of the U.S. intelligence community.
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Tyler McBrien @tylermcbrien.com · 30/04/2025
When ending the Women, Peace, & Security program at DOD, Sec Hegseth said that “troops HATE it”—apparently “troops” didn’t include the Joint Staff and leaders of combatant commands, who recommended maintaining the program and touted its value in a memo obtained by @lawfaremedia.org
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 25/04/2025
Awesome article by Stacie Goddard in @foreignaffairs.com. Key points: • Great-power competition? Lol. • Is Trump aiming at a great-power concert? Sort of. •Trump's constitutionally incapable of making a concert work. • We probably don't want to live in a world with a great-power concert anyway.
foreignaffairs.com
The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition
Trump’s new spheres of influence.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
“Communication is key in every strong marriage, and that includes communication about airstrikes on foreign adversaries.” theonion.com/pete-hegseth...
theonion.com
Pete Hegseth: ‘There Are No State Secrets In A Healthy Relationship’
WASHINGTON—Staunchly defending his decision to share sensitive military data in messages to his wife, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Monday, “There are no state secrets in a healthy rel...
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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
Dear USG, Sorry to hear that you accidentally turned in a preliminary draft of your letter. Unfortunately, now that a grade has been submitted, we cannot accept a revised version, and the original grade must stand. I hope this will serve as a reminder to double check your work before submitting it.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
If you have time, go read my colleague @ismarvolic.bsky.social’s piece on why TPS status matters and what we all gain when our immigration systems are grounded in empathy and not exclusion
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Today, class, we will once again discuss “revealed preferences”
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
What’s the comparative politics term for backsliding into an Idiocracy?
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
@zachlowenba.bsky.social a bit bummed that Quinten Post did not get at least an honorable mention for an all rookie team spot. Highest 3-pt % for a rookie at 43% and playing meaningful minutes for a (playoff? gulp) team that really needs spacing off the bench
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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
To recap, Trump officials have suspended funds to: 1. Columbia ($400 million) 2. Brown ($510 million) 3. UPenn ($175 million) 4. Harvard ($9 billion) 5. Cornell ($1 billion) Perhaps we need to form a coalition or an alliance to band together. Maybe a League of some kind?
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Look forward to moment, decades from now, when Trump’s decision to devastate the global economy because he’s a racist dude who became convinced trade deficits were bad because of Japan in the 1980s gets explained by future IPE scholars as “sectoral interests”
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 25/03/2025
It’s like Watergate, only in this version Nixon directly mails the tapes to Woodward and Bernstein
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
“Unpublishing” articles and scrubbing websites is one thing. I’m also hearing from my friends in the PME space about how these initiatives are putting their colleagues and institutions at risk. It’s as if this administration wants a military that is less intellectual, self reflective, and adaptive.
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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
A small drop in an ocean of suck, but for the past few weeks friends have let me know that my book (Divided Armies), along w/ related articles + briefings, was removed from DoD reading lists & curricula for being "too woke" Now JFQ has literally "unpublished" its review & any mention of the book ⬇️
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Includes articles written by notorious wokeness warrior John Nagl
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 16/04/2024
That ominous moment when you receive an email that a journal has created an account for you in ScholarOne
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 18/03/2024
Excited to announce the publication of a new article (with Joseph M. Parent) in the the CJIA that examines how the United States and China make status claims in world politics academic.oup.com/cjip/article...
academic.oup.com
In Search of Status: China and the USA in United Nations Speeches, 1970–2020
Abstract. What is China’s status? The answer has major repercussions for China’s rights, responsibilities, and risk acceptance in international disputes. Althou
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 09/01/2024
Question: why is my wife cackling with laughter in the next room? Answer: www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/an-...
mcsweeneys.net
An Open Letter to Jeremy Allen White Regarding His Recent Calvin Klein Ad
Dear Mr. White, It is with an uneasy mixture of consternation and lust that we received, via Instagram, your latest thirst trap. We see that you ha...
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 02/01/2024
Tis the season of frantic last minute letter of recommendation requests
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
“California taxpayers are basically subsidizing overdraft of groundwater…subsidizing the profits of a few who take a resource that is shared by all.” Cast Jack Nicholson in this latest Chinatown sequel, what a story www.latimes.com/environment/...
latimes.com
Their land is sinking. But Tulare Lake farm barons defy calls to cut groundwater pumping
The farm barons of Tulare Lake Basin want to continue pumping groundwater at volumes collapsing the San Joaquin Valley. That puts the region at greater risk of damaging floods — and in greater need ...
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 26/12/2023
Nothing better than celebrating Boxing Day by riding the tallest, steepest, fastest hybrid wood rollercoaster in North America
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 26/12/2023
At last - someone says it in an influential publication! --> a war game often reveals more about the interests and intentions of the players than it does about the outcome of the game itself.
foreignaffairs.com
What War Games Really Reveal
The outcomes matter less than who pays and who plays.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 23/12/2023
Graduate schools, just agree to one centralized shared letter of recommendation service. Nobody benefits from your artisanal candidate questionnaires
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 14/12/2023
I’m thrilled to announce that my new paper on colonial violence and civilian targeting has just been published in @iojournal.bsky.social. It examines a new dataset of 193 colonial wars from 1815 to 2003.  bit.ly/3Rnc6mJ
bit.ly
Civilized Barbarism: What We Miss When We Ignore Colonial Violence | International Organization | Ca...
Civilized Barbarism: What We Miss When We Ignore Colonial Violence - Volume 77 Issue 4
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
All of the research we have suggests this will do little to help Russia’s military effectiveness, but will raise the risks of war crimes, including wartime sexual violence
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
Excited that my new coauthored article (with Stacie Goddard) on race and competing doctrines of counterinsurgency (COIN) warfare is out now in Security Studies. The article is part of a much larger, must read special issue on race in international relations. www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
tandfonline.com
From ‘Butcher and Bolt’ to ‘Blugsplat’: Race, Counterinsurgency, and International Politics
Beginning in the early 2000s, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan revived interest among security studies scholars in counterinsurgency (COIN) warfare. Yet most studies of COIN in mainstream security ...
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Tomer Ullman @tomerullman.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
asking for an image of a professor and asking to make it "more professor", a thread.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
“Thaddeus, who has taught at Columbia for 24 years, has made a hobby of provoking his employer. He said he had been radicalized by the experience of being chair of the math department.” www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/u...
nytimes.com
U.S. News Ranked Columbia No. 2, but a Math Professor Has His Doubts (Published 2022)
A professor identified several data discrepancies that Columbia University provided to U.S. News & World Report, renewing the debate over the value and accuracy of college rankings.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 28/11/2023
Nice to see Fearon 1995 getting a prominent shout out in the Times. But those of us who study war for a living know that it doesn’t need to make comeback, it has never really left us. www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | We Know War Is Awful, So Why Is It Making a Comeback?
Leaders can’t always avoid war, but being rational helps.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 26/11/2023
“We need to call terrorism and war crimes out by name, whichever side uses them, and whatever we think of the legitimacy of the causes in whose name they are used. Our humanity depends on it. So does any hope for understanding this conflict and, perhaps, ending it.”
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 26/11/2023
Watching a touching Thanksgiving movie with the kids about the importance of bonding with friends and family
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kim yi dionne (she/her) @dadakim.bsky.social · 24/11/2023
Grateful to @alucardi1.bsky.social, @noamlupu.bsky.social, & Jorge Mangonnet for writing this @goodauth.bsky.social explainer on why Javier Milei won Argentina's runoff election. Importantly, they shift our focus to the institutional constraints and likely political gridlock Milei will face.
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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 23/11/2023
Heartbreaking stories of Afghan families being torn apart as Pakistan forcibly expels up to 1 million Afghans, many of whom were born in Pakistan and have spent their entire lives there. Cruel dilemma: hide in the shadows and hope to avoid getting caught, or go to Taliban Afghanistan?
nytimes.com
Families Ripped Apart as Pakistan Expels Tens of Thousands of Afghans
Husbands and wives, parents and children, wonder when, or if, they will ever see each other again.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 23/11/2023
Always find it useful to remind myself that this racist alt right troll was a research fellow at Columbia’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies and has published in International Studies Quarterly.
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 23/11/2023
This is like rain on my wedding day
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Paul MacDonald @pkmacdonald.bsky.social · 23/11/2023
On Thanksgiving night, my family will be celebrating the way I assume all adherents to the cult of Thanksgiving will be celebrating: watching John Hughes’ masterpiece “Planes, Trains, and Automobiles”
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Review of International Studies @risjnl.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
Congratulations to @tobiaswille.bsky.social for receiving an honorable mention for the ISA Diplomacy Section best paper prize! "Bureaucracy and the everyday practices of contested state diplomacy: The paradigmatic case of Kosovo" Have a read of his paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Bureaucracy and the everyday practices of contested state diplomacy: The paradigmatic case of Kosovo...
Bureaucracy and the everyday practices of contested state diplomacy: The paradigmatic case of Kosovo
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Mara Revkin @mararevkin.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
My new working paper with @benckrick.bsky.social & @jonpetkun.bsky.social on the relationship between civilian harm and perceptions of military legitimacy after the battle of Mosul in Iraq based on survey, satellite, and interview data for the Households in Conflict Network: hicn.org/working-pape...
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Shelley Liu @shelleyliu.bsky.social · 20/11/2023
🥳🚨 Excited to share my paper, "Coercive Legacies: From Rebel Governance to Authoritarian Control," cond. accepted at @thejop.bsky.social (paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....) I ask:❓How does rebel governance affect political development when rebel parties win power? #polisky 🧵 1/4
Ex-rebels govern almost a quarter of sub-Saharan Africa today. How does war affect these countries' long-run political development, and what explains their rebel regimes' longevity? The paper explores the role of coercion in rebel governance: post-war governance draws from wartime strategies, which helps to explain (1) the continued use of organized coercion in post-war politics when faced with challenges to ruling party dominance, and (2) where such coercion is most effectively employed. I examine Zimbabwe where the anti-colonial rebel party has remained in power since 1980. I rely on archival data to qualitatively trace mechanisms, map pre-war to current-day administrative divisions, and code a measure of wartime governance. I combine these data with Afrobarometer surveys to demonstrate long-run subnational variation in coercive political control. Findings deepen our understanding of war’s effects on peacetime politics and provide one explanation for infrequent political turnovers
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