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Paul Novosad

@novosad.bsky.social
4.5K followers 402 following 280 posts

Econ prof @dartmouth, founder devdatalab.org r2: a morass of disjointed streams of consciousness 🤷‍♂️

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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 25/03/2026
📢Apply for the 25th Summer School in International and #Development #Economics: Economic Development in the Age of Big Data and #AI ⌛Deadline: 4 May 📆1-4 September |📍Tuscany, Italy Lecturers: @samasher.bsky.social & @novosad.bsky.social ow.ly/55T650Yyvse #EconSky
Apply by 4 May for the 25th Summer School in International and Development Economics. The 2026 theme is Economic Development in the Age of Big Data and AI.

The summer school will take place at the Castello di Gargonza in Tuscany, Italy from 1-4 September.
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Econ PhD Chess is happening this Thursday Jan 22 at 10pm ET! 1 hour of 3+2 blitz against fellow econ enthusiasts, all skill levels welcome! If you're not in the lichess group, fill our Google Form to get invited: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F.... More details in 🧵
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Congrats to Weiliang Tan "amateur_nonmaster", AP at Claremont McKenna, winner of the first Econ PhD Chess Arena! 2nd and 3rd to Nahim Bin Zahur and @avivcaspi.bsky.social. We're playing monthly, all levels welcome. Fill the form below for a chance to get schooled by one of these monsters.
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
Last chance to sign up for Econ PhD Chess tomorrow! We're sending arena invites today, please register by the form below ASAP if you want to be on our list or play on Sunday.
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
♟️♟️ Phd Econ Chess Arena! Organized by me and @michaelstepner.bsky.social, all skill levels welcome, come play an hour of bullet/blitz, once a month on lichess. First date Dec 28 12pm ET. If at all interested, please answer our Google Form: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
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NBER @nber.org · 13/11/2025
Adaptive persistence of elite families despite regime change, alongside lasting regional scarring, highlighting the role of cultural transmission for social mobility, from Carol H. Shiue and Wolfgang Keller www.nber.org/papers/w34451
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Wow, this is fantastic.
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Ryu Matsuura @ryu-matsuura.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Inserting @novosad.bsky.social's X post - I am still not very proficient in R, but I converted all of my Stata code to R for fun, which resulted in a very primitive version masala-merge in R (github.com/devdatalab/m...)! #masala-merge #R #India #economics
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The Economist @economist.com · 07/07/2025
Young people and city-dwellers are among those most likely to see one group’s gain as another’s loss
econ.st
To understand America today, study the zero-sum mindset, writes Stefanie Stantcheva
Young people and city-dwellers are among those most likely to see one group’s gain as another’s loss
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Kevin A. Bryan @afinetheorem.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Editing our writing is a common academic task. I *hate* how spell/grammar checks annoy me by thinking proper nouns or LaTeX code are misspellings (yes, I want `` ''). I also want *style* tips like a good editor would give me. Problem solved. 1/5
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Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
OMG is real www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...
nbcnews.com
Ohio police find raccoon holding meth pipe during traffic stop
When an officer took the pipe away, the raccoon pulled out another.
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Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
I have revise-and-resubmits older than ICE
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
It's wild to me that in 2025 there are academics advising their students to never use AI.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Please do it less quietly, Europe. US political leadership needs to be more rattled by this! www.politico.com/newsletters/...
politico.com
How Europe is quietly stealing America’s scientists
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
just register for your own protection. it will be fine
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Ah yes, the government asking Jews to register as Jewish, in the name of protecting the Jews. No way that could go wrong www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/n...
nytimes.com
U.S. Texts Barnard Employees and Asks if They Are Jewish
A questionnaire from a federal commission also inquired about whether professors and other college staff members had been harassed.
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Asawin Suebsaeng @swin24.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
fuck these fucking guys who did this slate.com/news-and-pol...
slate.com
The Courage to Be Decent
The goal isn’t to police all behavior at all times. It’s to make us fearful to the point that we police our own behavior.
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Academic creativity is underrated and technical methods are overrated. Take this excellent paper on Zero Sum Thinking—simple in retrospect, just an excellent idea! Graph shows rise in zero-sum thinking with Millennial and later U.S. birth cohorts. Congrats to @s-stantcheva.bsky.social
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Parents are going to flip out when they learn that the 4th grade teacher hasn't answered all the math worksheet questions by herself.
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Is EconSky dead? Scrolling through my feed, none of the posts by real people (as opposed to social media celebrities) have any engagement. Even "new paper alerts" getting like <20 likes.
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Hisham Zerriffi @hishamzerriffi.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
U.S. citizen interested in grad studies at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver (Canada)? Grad programs are re-opening applications of US programs for one week. With expedited decisions. U.S. Applicant Week: www.grad.ubc.ca/us-applicant... #AcademicChatter #Canada #GradSchool
grad.ubc.ca
US Applicant Week
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Our paper on ingroup bias in the Indian judiciary — we didn't find any — is finally out! This paper has one of the two best graphs I've ever made — on publication bias in the judicial bias literature. Black circles are prior studies on ingroup bias. Explanation in 🧵👇🏻
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Now that’s a split-screen. ⛳️ @wsj.com
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Mad king watch
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Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Carney: The system of global trade anchored on the United States.. is over. Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over. The 80 year period when the United States embraced the mantle of economic leadership… is over.
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mallow's hyperrealistic blood @bajablastenjoyer.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
the internet starting to re-fragment into having Actual Websites again as centralized social media self-destructs is unironically one of the absolute best, most positive things happening rn
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Paul Novosad @novosad.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Seriously disturbing. Look at the prisoners standing at attention, being required to take part in this US propaganda video
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Gravel Influencer @gravelinfluencer.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Not sure if this has been shared here yet, but this is video of Rumeysa Ozturk's arrest posted by WCVB. It's terrifying.
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Scott Shapiro @scottjshapiro.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
Free speech is for ideas we like; otherwise, it's sparkling terrorism
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Rachael Sirianni, PhD @docsirianni.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
This is horrible to post, but I may as well post it. We are essentially shutting down research operations in my group, which is focused on treatments for pediatric brain cancer. I’m a well funded investigator, and there’s no choice. Science can’t function without the stability of NIH
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Vincent Pons @vinpons.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
We are very happy to publish the "National Elections Database," including the results of 1,023 presidential and 2,962 parliamentary elections conducted worldwide since 1946! www.nationalelectionsdatabase.com with Benjamin Marx and Vincent Rollet
nationalelectionsdatabase.com
Overview
National Elections Database
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
#GDRI_rep Update 1: I4R are now reproducing all published papers that use data from GDRI, or are closely related in other ways. Here is a first update on our work. 🧵
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James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Yea
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Andrew Tate has learned his lesson. by Susan Collins
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Three things worth knowing about the current fiscal debate: 1. When they're talking about savings, the numbers are usually billions (though sometimes millions). 2. When they're talking about tax cuts, the numbers are usually trillions. 3. A trillion is a thousand times larger than a billion.
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David A. Jaeger (econ) @davidajaeger.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
It's a very sad day. Just notified that @iza.org is closing its doors as of 31 December 2025. At a time when labor is under attack and technological change moves at an ever-faster pace, I can't help but think that this is a short-sighted decision. My heart goes out to those folks who work there.
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Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Awful timing given the funding meltdown in the USA IZA shutting down its institute in Bonn Hoping to maintain the scholar network www.deutsche-post-stiftung.org/media/202502...
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 24/02/2025
The world's top network of labor economists—@iza.org—will close permanently at the end of this year. What a loss to research. Especially now when the rising waters of disinformation choke truth. It is up to us, now, to begin the work to rebuild. www.deutsche-post-stiftung.org/media/202502...
deutsche-post-stiftung.org
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Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
The NAEP 2024 -2025 Long Term Trend Age 17 assessment will not be administered in the upcoming weeks Unbroken testing series since early 1970s Nothing like ignorance to keep our country moving forward
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Lars Vilhuber @lars.vilhuber.com · 20/02/2025
Definitely worth highlighting, every time you get on a plane! www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/u...
cnn.com
‘That training kicked in’: How flight attendants leapt into action after Toronto plane crash | CNN
After Delta Flight 4819’s cabin rolled upside down and came to rest in a terrifying crash landing at Toronto Pearson International Airport, a flight attendant stood on what had been the ceiling – one ...
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
The DOGE firings have nothing to do with “efficiency” or “cutting waste.” They’re a direct push to weaken federal agencies perceived as liberal. This was evident from the start, and now the data confirms it: targeted agencies overwhelmingly those seen as more left-leaning. 🧵⬇️
Scatterplot titled “Empirical Evidence of Ideological Targeting in Federal Layoffs: Agencies seen as liberal are significantly more likely to face DOGE layoffs.”
	•	The x-axis represents Perceived Ideological Leaning of federal agencies, ranging from -2 (Most Liberal) to +2 (Most Conservative), based on survey responses from over 1,500 federal executives.
	•	The y-axis shows Agency Size (Number of Staff) on a logarithmic scale from 1,000 to 1,000,000.

Each point represents a federal agency:
	•	Red dots indicate agencies that experienced DOGE layoffs.
	•	Gray dots indicate agencies with no layoffs.

Key Observations:
	•	Liberal-leaning agencies (left side of the plot) are disproportionately represented among red dots, indicating higher layoff rates.
	•	Notable targeted agencies include:
	•	HHS (Health & Human Services)
	•	EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)
	•	NIH (National Institutes of Health)
	•	CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau)
	•	Dept. of Education
	•	USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development)
	•	The National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE), despite its conservative leaning (+1 on the scale), is an exception among targeted agencies.
	•	A notable outlier: the Department of Veterans Affairs (moderately conservative) also faced layoffs despite its size.

Takeaway:

The figure visually demonstrates that DOGE layoffs disproportionately targeted liberal-leaning agencies, supporting claims of ideological bias. The pattern reveals that layoffs were not driven by agency size or budget alone but were strongly associated with perceived ideology.

Source: Richardson, Clinton, & Lewis (2018). Elite Perceptions of Agency Ideology and Workforce Skill. The Journal of Politics, 80(1).
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WuTangIsForTheChildren @wutangforchildren.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
🔥🔥🔥 Former Vikings punter Chris Kluwe was arrested for civil disobedience after speaking against a MAGA display that the city council of Huntington Beach agreed to put up at the public library…..that’s what’s up….every word👇
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
One of the leading scholars of democracy is struggling to process what is happening just like everyone else: "Is democracy dying in the United States?"
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Abel: I am writing in my capacity as Chair of I4R. Last year, I was contacted by a researcher that alerted me of potential scientific misconduct in a set of papers all using data from a specific NGO.🧵
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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16/02/2025
That’s the bet, and they’re clearly winning. US politics is not operating under the rules of a functioning democracy, and people need to recognize that asap. Otherwise you will think there’s some self-correcting mechanism that is simply not there anymore.
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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16/02/2025
And more importantly, this case is how they are sending to every politician in America a crucial message: they will spare you any legal trouble, no matter what you do, if you align with them. That’s a massive power grab.
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