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Ankit Panda

@nktpnd.bsky.social
20K followers 330 following 2.2K posts

Stanton Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Author of ‘THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE’ (Polity) & ‘KIM JONG UN AND THE BOMB’ (Hurst/Oxford) Subscribe to my newsletter (Nukesletter): panda.substack.com

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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
This is something @claroche.bsky.social and I discussed in our recent piece on the limitations of the AI-nuclear analogy. Governments should be similarly preparing. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
South Korea tests hypersonic missile for first time, weeks after North www.nknews.org/2026/10/sout...
nknews.org
South Korea tests hypersonic missile for first time, weeks after North | NK News
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung observed the first “successful” test launch of a domestically developed hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) on Thursday, a capability experts say could keep Seoul’s mis...
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 09/10/2026
I mean that's the goal, right? Make the U.S. a rentier state.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
"South Korea's top military officer said Thursday that the United States has restricted some intelligence sharing on North Korea, but that the limits have not affected the South Korean military's overall readiness posture." www.koreaherald.com/article/1089...
koreaherald.com
JCS says some US intelligence sharing restricted but readiness unaffected
South Korea's top military officer said Thursday that the United States has restricted some intelligence sharing on North Korea, but that the limits have not af
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
warontherocks.com/the-atlantic...
warontherocks.com
The Atlantic Brief: U.S. and European Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence
For this edition of The Atlantic Brief, the Royal United Services Institute and War on the Rocks present a dialogue on U.S. and European Perspectives on
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I didn’t get into this with CNN, but China's comfort level on discuss CTBT/testing-adjacent issues is very different from arms control: Beijing was rather proactive around testing in the 1990s. It's an area where there's institutional knowledge/expertise on their side.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I joined @jimsciutto.bsky.social on CNN yesterday to discuss reports that the Trump administration has been engaging China on nuclear matters. I suggest this is good for narrowly addressing the testing accusations, but unlikely to lead to arms control. Transcript: transcripts.cnn.com/show/tbwjs/d...
transcripts.cnn.com
CNN.com - Transcripts
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I have a new analysis of North Korea's latest hypersonic (really, MaRV) missile exercise. www.nknews.org/pro/how-nort...
nknews.org
How North Korea’s newest ‘hypersonic’ missile could foil adversary defenses | NK PRO
North Korea’s launch of a “hypersonic” ballistic missile over the weekend appears to mark the country’s most significant reveal of a strategic system since the Hwasong-20 intercontinental ballistic mi...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"The federal police in Germany arrested a former head of the nation’s intelligence services on Tuesday on suspicion of 'treasonous espionage' and other spying charges, including attempting to pass state secrets to foreign governments." www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/w...
nytimes.com
German Officials Arrest Former Spy Chief on Espionage Charges (Gift Article)
August Hanning is accused of helping foreign governments. His arrest shook the German political world and had roots in a steakhouse-heiress kidnapping plot.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This is good, but there’s a long way to executing successfully: US and China discussing reciprocal nuclear site visits amid concerns about a new arms race www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/p...
cnn.com
US and China discussing reciprocal nuclear site visits amid concerns about a new arms race | CNN Politics
The Trump administration has discussed beginning reciprocal nuclear site visits with China and plans to continue pushing for that possibility during in-person meetings in the coming months, according ...
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Tom @tomel.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Enrico Fermi on December 2nd, 1942:
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I wonder about the counterfactual where the opposition really leaned into rebranding tariffs as "trade taxes".
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
North Korea mocks Seoul, Tokyo over alleged failure to track missile www.nknews.org/2026/10/nort...
nknews.org
North Korea mocks Seoul, Tokyo over alleged failure to track missile | NK News
Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said North Korea conducted an intermediate-range strategic missile drill Saturday, claiming its maneuvering flight prevented South ...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
If you want to help me with this experiment, feel free to run this prompt (ctxt.io/3/qbVUHMbok) and tell me if it appropriately seems to identify me as an interested human.
ctxt.io
Rich-text paste
Expires within 1 hour. Public link.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
asia.nikkei.com/politics/def...
asia.nikkei.com
Japan to develop low-cost cruise missile that overwhelms air defenses
Civilian components will be used to significantly reduce production expenses
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Reflecting pool update.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I've set up an inbox for AI agents who want to talk about nuclear weapons. (Singles and swarms welcome.) The best outcome is that the inbox stays empty. New Nukesletter on why I did it and what could go wrong: panda.substack.com/p/an-experim...
panda.substack.com
An Experiment and An Invitation to AI Agents Interested in Nuclear War
A few more thoughts on agentic AI and nuclear war.
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 01/10/2026
It is critical to separate the questions 1) Is AI technology useful, and how much? 2) Is AI investment a bubble? Will there be a correction? Two very different issues. Railroad infrastructure was truly transformative, but that industry went through a series of boom-and-bust cycles along the way.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Recoverable ICBM boosters, here we come.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Humans are next-token prediction machines.
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The service academies aren't the only institutions in the US being destroyed as universities. But they're the only federal public universities in the US at all, and they play an important role in training the armed forces' leadership, which ultimately means... www.stripes.com/branches/arm...
stripes.com
West Point professor fired after pushing back on limitations to teaching climate change, lawsuit says
Adam Kalkstein pushed back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change, the lawsuit says.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Seems to struggle with the CIA FOIA Electronic Reading Room, but agree; this is genuinely useful.
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Gordon Gray @ambgordongray.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
@dandrezner.bsky.social observes that "learning to write is integral to success in text-based spheres of activity. This is where... relying on AI becomes a concern. Studies suggest that outsourcing that task to AI comes with significant cognitive costs." danieldrezner.substack.com/p/im-a-colle...
danieldrezner.substack.com
I’m a College Professor. Writing is Pretty Damn Important.
It’s hardly the only thing -- but it’s a very important thing!
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This seems ... good.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Fun thing about working on nuclear weapons is you’re constantly able to learn new things. This is a really fascinating document pulled up by @wellerstein.bsky.social.
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Quite a remarkable map, table, and diagram from a 1971 report on launch-on-warning, showing the implications of Soviet submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) on detection, reaction, deliberation, and response time. All numbers are in SECONDS, which is what I find the most wild about it.
Map of the USA labeled "Soviet SLBM [Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile] Time of Flight to SAC [Strategic Air Command] Targets." Shows both "nominal" and "depressed" trajectories. Absolute best (north central USA) is between 580 and 850 seconds (9.6 – 14 min). Absolute worst (everywhere else) is between 320 and 650 seconds (5.3 – 10.8 min). The variations are based on where they assume the subs are launching from. Table: "Early Warning System Performance." Shows four different systems (BMEWS, OTHF, SLBM Net, and a not-yet-operational in 1971 Boost-Phase Detection Satellite) that indicates the time of detection after launch (varies between 55 and 150 seconds; BMEWS cannot detect launches as it is only over-the-horizon radar), the time that the US command and control system would be alerted after launch (ranges from 85 seconds for the newest system to 900 seconds for BMEWs), the probably of detection of a single launch (BMEWS is 99%, SLBM Net is 50%, none of the others have probabilities), probably of detection for a mass launch (all around 100%), and their false alarm rate (BMEWS has 1 per 7 years, OTHF is 1 per 6 months, the others are unknown). Diagram: "National Command-Warning to Response Cycle." Shows the consequences of a launch detection all the way through the US nuclear infrastructure, with "delay times" in seconds. Will be discussed in the next post in this thread.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
'Self-staged farce': Kim Yo Jong denies North Korean role in DMZ mine blast www.nknews.org/2026/09/self...
nknews.org
'Self-staged farce': Kim Yo Jong denies North Korean role in DMZ mine blast | NK News
North Korea claimed it is not responsible for a landmine explosion that injured South Korean soldiers in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) this month, according to a statement by the leader’s sister Kim…
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
www.nknews.org/pro/north-ko...
nknews.org
North Korea expanding uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon: Imagery | NK PRO
North Korea has started expanding a uranium enrichment facility at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, according to NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery, following leader Kim Jong Un’s orders to “exponentia...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
(Somewhat pleased that my sense for AI writing is well-calibrated enough that I popped the text into Pangram two sentences in... and lo and behold.)
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Well, it finally happened: I was asked to peer review an article that Pangram flags as 100% AI-generated.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
They're running the model on an air-gapped, closed classified network, supposedly.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
From Brandon Williams' recent piece on NNSA efforts to use AI to speed up development and on the new RCT capabilities; an interesting note here on disclosure and new capabilities (not all may be revealed). warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I shared some thoughts with the Wall Street Journal on North Korean conventional modernization www.wsj.com/world/north-...
wsj.com
North Korea Is Testing Swarm Attacks Mixing Drones and Missiles
Kim Jong Un’s regime is incorporating tactics which are proving successful against Western air defenses in Europe and the Middle East.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I have a new article out (with James McKeon) on the lessons from nuclear weapons verification for AI verification efforts today. www.ankitpanda.com/newsletter/t...
ankitpanda.com
Trust, but P(verify): Lessons From Nuclear Verification for AI — Ankit Panda
Efforts to verify constraints on artificial intelligence can benefit from the long, difficult story of nuclear weapons verification.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"Several retained scripts construct requests to external language models. The earliest we've recovered define inference request variants to GPT-2, solely containing the word “Hi”. Other requests name DeepSeek-V4-Pro, DeepSeek-V4-Flash, Kimi-K2.6, DeepSeek-V3.1, and Qwen3-235B-A22B."
swarmtraces.org
Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face
When a swarm of 700 OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face in July, they left behind a public trail of evidence.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This is very good and interesting (new details): Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face swarmtraces.org
swarmtraces.org
Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face
When a swarm of 700 OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face in July, they left behind a public trail of evidence.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"OpenAI’s artificial intelligence went rogue and meddled with the websites for the Education Department, the Commerce Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission this summer without the A.I. lab’s knowledge" www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/t...
nytimes.com
OpenAI’s A.I. Went Rogue and Meddled With U.S. Government Websites
The company did not learn until recently that its technology had meddled with websites for the Education and Commerce Departments and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Reflecting pool update.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"The Trump administration has been quietly holding talks with China about its rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal amid doubts over Beijing’s compliance with a 30-year test ban, U.S. officials said." www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Trump Administration Presses China on Suspected Nuclear Tests in Confidential Talks
The discussions have occurred on the sidelines of multilateral meetings in Geneva, New York and Casablanca, Morocco.
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Institute for Security and Technology @istorg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
AI is moving faster than our nuclear command systems can safely absorb it. In a new ep of #ThinkingtheUnthinkable, IST CEO @philreiner.bsky.social sat down with @nktpnd.bsky.social to discuss how AI is reshaping NC3 systems and what that means for deterrence & strategic stability. ▶️ Listen now:
warontherocks.com
AI, Nuclear Command and Control, and Competitive Dynamics
Philip Reiner, CEO of the Institute for Security and Technology, joins Ankit to discuss how AI could reshape nuclear command and control across all nine...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Gotta pick between “pragmatic” and “denuclearization” www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
South Korea has plan for phased denuclearisation. But will North bite?
The South Korean president’s proposal reflects the reality that North Korea already has significant nuclear capabilities, analysts say.
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 24/09/2026
There are real parallels between the development of nuclear technology and the buildout of AI systems, but the atomic age “cannot provide a ready-made blueprint for the problem that AI poses,” write @claroche.bsky.social and @nktpnd.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
The Trouble With the Nuclear-AI Analogy
In humanity’s quest to constrain the dangers from fast-advancing artificial intelligence, many have looked to the most revolutionary technology that preceded it: nuclear weapons.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
As expected, things are getting out of hand.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
OpenAI ‘agent’ hacked Australia’s health service www.ft.com/content/5613... via @FT
ft.com
OpenAI ‘agent’ hacked Australia’s health service
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says breach is ‘obviously unacceptable’
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It’s basically the astronaut meme with “Wait, it’s all an extension of early airpower theory?”
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
You might enjoy Quester’s “Deterrence Before Hiroshima.”
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Stephen Young @atomicwonk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Henry Kissinger & Dick Garwin were debating missile defense. Garwin argued deploying a system was ineffective (it won't work) & dangerous (as adversaries will respond). Kissinger said it's impossible for it to be both. Garwin said "imagine you buy a squirt gun and charge a policy officer."
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"The volatility of the Korean market is running above 60 per cent this year, with a summer peak near 100. Volatility of this magnitude has not been recorded before in any major country during good times, and rarely even in extreme crises." www.ft.com/content/6f0c...
ft.com
Why the world’s hottest stock market is a national liability
South Korea’s wild stock price swings are hurting the country’s image
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New in @foreignaffairs.com with @claroche.bsky.social: even if efforts to control the bomb may be a source of inspiration, they are not a ready-made template for AI governance. On the limits of the AI-nuclear weapons analogy. Gift link: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
The Trouble With the Nuclear-AI Analogy
In humanity’s quest to constrain the dangers from fast-advancing artificial intelligence, many have looked to the most revolutionary technology that preceded it: nuclear weapons.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Strategic victory entails breaking the adversary's will to fight. If you're Iran, you're getting very good evidence that the American will to fight is crumbling; these numbers can't be ignored.
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