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Nicolás de la Cerda

@ndelacerda.bsky.social
392 followers 648 following 29 posts

Assistant Professor Department of Political Science University of New Mexico

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Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Perspectives on Politics @poppublicsphere.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!! Positional Blurring in Context: How #Dimensionality & #Ideology Constrain #Strategy By @ndelacerda.bsky.social & @jacobgunderson.bsky.social www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 21/09/2026
#OpenAccess from @poppublicsphere.bsky.social - Positional Blurring in Context: How Dimensionality and Ideology Constrain Strategy - cup.org/4dNElqp - @ndelacerda.bsky.social & Jacob R. Gunderson #FirstView
The image features the text "Perspectives on Politics" in bold, blue letters on a white background, with an illustration of a person holding a megaphone in the background. The bottom section reads "#OpenAccess" in white on a blue background.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Our bottom line: blurring economic positions is not an inherent characteristic of populism. It depends on the dimensionality of the party system, and what "the people" means to that movement. doi.org/10.1017/S153...
doi.org
Positional Blurring in Context: How Dimensionality and Ideology Constrain Strategy | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
Positional Blurring in Context: How Dimensionality and Ideology Constrain Strategy
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Splitting parties by ideology instead of geography, we find the same story: nativist, right-wing populists get vaguer on economics as they get more populist. Class-based, left-wing populists don't.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
We find that the more populist a European party is, the vaguer its economics and the clearer its cultural stances. In Latin America, we don't see that pattern at all.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
To test this, we used @chesdata.bsky.social, allowing us to expand the scope of blurring theories from Europe to Latin America.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Second: the type of populism. Nativist, right-wing populism defines "the people" against outsiders, so it's naturally aligned with cultural issues, such as religion or immigration. But class-based, left-wing populism's whole brand rests on a clear economic message.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
However, if a party system is unidimensional, like in much of Latin America, there's no second dimension to hide behind, so being vague about the economy just makes a party look aimless, not strategic.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
We argue it comes down to two things. First: the dimensionality of the party system. In much of Western Europe, economic and cultural issues constitute two separate dimensions of party competition. In these places, a party can be successful by being crystal clear on one and vague on the other.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
New with @jacobgunderson.bsky.social , in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social (open access): "Positional Blurring in Context." Europe's populist parties typically blur their economic platforms but stay sharp on cultural issues. Does that hold everywhere? 🧵 doi.org/10.1017/S153...
doi.org
Positional Blurring in Context: How Dimensionality and Ideology Constrain Strategy | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
Positional Blurring in Context: How Dimensionality and Ideology Constrain Strategy
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Roi Litvak-Zur @roizur.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Very happy to be a part of this great team with @ndelacerda.bsky.social, @rbakker.bsky.social, @sethkjolly.bsky.social, @jonathanpolk.bsky.social, @rdassonneville.bsky.social, @jellekoedam.bsky.social, @palesl.bsky.social, and @jillesheppard.bsky.social.
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
❗The @chesdata.bsky.social team paper on the global economic left-right scale is now out in print at the JoP! Super happy to have contributed a tiny little bit to this huge effort by @ndelacerda.bsky.social, @rbakker.bsky.social and others!
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Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Ryan Bakker @rbakker.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Several years of data collection, 2 editorial teams and a few rounds of R&R were all well worth it to finally see this paper in print. Thanks to all the survey teams and the many experts who helped make this possible. doi.org/10.1086/736578
doi.org
University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent
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Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 21/05/2026
New Cambridge Element, New Forms of Democratic Erosion in Latin America, by Laura Gamboa and Rachel A. Schwartz, out now! Read for free for the next 2 weeks at cup.org/4eY9CbO
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Ashley Jardina @jardina.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
As we wrap up another semester, my public opinion students have put together a great survey. If you have 5 minutes to spare, my students and I would thrilled if you'd take it: virginia.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
virginia.az1.qualtrics.com
Qualtrics Survey | Qualtrics Experience Management
The most powerful, simple and trusted way to gather experience data. Start your journey to experience management and try a free account today.
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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
Every so often reminded measurement in social science takes a back seat to hypothesis testing which isn't great for knowledge accumulation. More folks should read: eiko-fried.com/wp-content/u... We also use agree-disagree scales too much (myself included)
eiko-fried.com
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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social! Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan: 🧵⬇️
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Latin American Political Institutions Section (LAPIS) @lapislasa.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
🌟 Latin Americanist Meetups (LAM) at #APSA2025! 📍 Malone’s, 608 W Pender St, Vancouver 🗓️ Fri, Sept 12 @ 6PM — 16-min walk from Convention Centre ✨ Drop-in, no RSVP, pay your way ✨ Come & go freely Questions? Ask @ndelacerda.bsky.social 🍻 #LAM #Vancouver
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Abby Cassario @abbycassario.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
🚨🚨 NEW PRE-PRINT 🚨🚨 Prominent theories in political psychology argue that threat causes increases in conservatism. Early experimental work supported this idea, but many of these studies were (severely) underpowered, and examined only a few threats and ideological DVs. 1/n osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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Latin American Political Institutions Section (LAPIS) @lapislasa.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
LAPIS los invita a enviar propuestas para paneles patrocinados sobre instituciones políticas para LASA 2026. Postulece antes del 8 de agosto a través de este formulario: forms.gle/EhLLj5fkdWba.... Los paneles seleccionados tendrán aceptación garantizada en la conferencia.
forms.gle
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APSA @apsa.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Joséphine Lechartre Receives the 2025 Gabriel A. Almond Award for “Genocide and Cultural Change: Civilian Survival Strategies and the Reinvention of Political Culture During Guatemala’s Mayan Genocide” The Gabriel A. Almond Award is presented annually by the American Political Science Association…
politicalsciencenow.com
Joséphine Lechartre Receives the 2025 Gabriel A. Almond Award for “Genocide and Cultural Change: Civilian Survival Strategies and the Reinvention of Political Culture During Guatemala’s Mayan Genocide”
The Gabriel A. Almond Award is presented annually by the American Political Science Association (APSA) to honor the best doctoral dissertation in the field of comparative politics. Citation from the Award Committee: After reviewing a large number of excellent dissertations, the committee has unanimously selected for the Gabriel A. Almond Award Joséphine Lechartre’s exceptional work, “Genocide and Cultural Change: Civilian Survival Strategies and the Reinvention of Political Culture During Guatemala’s Mayan Genocide.”
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Simon Weschle @simonweschle.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Now out in @ajpseditor.bsky.social: @luciamotoliniac.bsky.social, Marko Klašnja and I show that greater pressures to spend more money on campaigning leads not just to more politicians who are rich, but especially to more politicians who are are *super* rich onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library
We provide a comprehensive theoretical and empirical account of the relationship between campaign finance pressures and the wealth of politicians. We argue that the heavily right-skewed wealth distri...
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Thanks, Rodolfo! Definitely, we have a working paper with @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social on how clientelism can engender positive affects. Paula Muñoz has a great book on clientelism as signals.
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Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Rodolfo Disi Pavlic @rdisip.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
1/11 How does justification of violence against the police change when you live near protests that are actively policed? In this article, just published in @sfjournal.bsky.social, we address this question using the 2019 Chilean social uprising as a case study. doi.org/10.1093/sf/s...
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
For scholars of comparative politics, this highlights the need to study opinion formation in diverse institutional contexts beyond established democracies. 🧵/END.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
This research shows partisan categories aren't always central to political reasoning. When parties aren't reliable information sources, citizens find alternative ways to organize their political environment.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
2) Affective Polarization Patterns: In Peru, outgroup animosity substantially outweighs ingroup favoritism across multiple measures. Citizens are more motivated to oppose the "other side" than support their own.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Why this asymmetry? Two potential explanations: 1) Low Political Trust: When citizens receive political cues, they face conflicting signals, a shared identity (Fujimorismo/anti-Fujimorismo) from a distrusted source (politicians). This creates cross-pressure that weakens ingroup effects.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
But here's the twist: only outgroup cues matter. Exposure to opposing group cues decreases support, but ingroup cues have no positive effect. This asymmetry challenges core assumptions of the Social Identity Perspective, which emphasizes ingroup favoritism over outgroup hostility.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
I conducted a survey experiment with 1,546 Peruvians, randomly exposing them to Fujimorista or anti-Fujimorista cues attached to real policy proposals currently discussed in Congress. Results show that political cues significantly influence policy preferences even without strong partisan brands.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Yet despite these harsh conditions for partisan attachments, Peru has two enduring non-partisan political identities: Fujimorismo and anti-Fujimorismo. These are defined not by party loyalty, but by opposing stances on the country's authoritarian past under Alberto Fujimori.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
I test this argument in Peru, an extreme case of party system breakdown. Between 2015 and 2024, Peru had seven presidents, averaging just 1.1 years per president.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
I argue that in contexts where party labels do not provide meaningful information, citizens turn to alternative political markers. From this perspective, partisan cueing is just one instance of a broader process: ingroup and outgroup cueing.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
We know citizens use partisan cues to understand policy positions. But what happens when political parties are weak, unstable, and deeply distrusted? In these contexts, parties offer little heuristic value and have limited capacity to shape citizens' political beliefs.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
🚨 NEW RESEARCH ALERT 🚨 My latest article is now available at @polbehavior.bsky.social! "Cueing Without Parties: Experimental Evidence from Peru" explores how citizens navigate politics in contexts without stable parties and deeply-rooted partisan predispositions. 📖 doi.org/10.1007/s111...
doi.org
Cueing Without Parties: Experimental Evidence from Peru - Political Behavior
Citizens infer policy information from partisan cues, yet their utility varies cross-nationally. In weakly institutionalized democracies with short-lived political parties and volatile party systems, ...
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Robert Jameson @rhjameson.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
Is Accountability Polarizing? Holding anti-democratic leaders accountable is often seen as a risky endeavor. But a recent study in Brazil complicates that assumption. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/is-a... via @lawfaremedia.org @ndelacerda.bsky.social @isabellatingley.bsky.social Ayelén Vanegas
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Isabel Laterzo-Tingley @isabellatingley.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Check out our new article in @lawfaremedia.org - with @ndelacerda.bsky.social and Ayelén Vanegas - which covers our our working paper "Institutional Accountability and Support for Democracy: Evidence from a Natural Experiment". You can see the article below.
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
A bonus to being a member of the @chesdata.bsky.social team is being involved in *super* cool projects, like this one - led by @ndelacerda.bsky.social and just out in @thejop.bsky.social 👇
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Check out this Lawfare article discussing our working paper on the effects of accountability measures on democratic attitudes in Brazil! You can read the full working paper @apsa-preprints.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/4429dwu6
tinyurl.com
Is Accountability Polarizing? What Bolsonaro’s Indictment Can Tell Us
Holding anti-democratic leaders accountable is often seen as a risky endeavor. But a recent study in Brazil complicates that assumption.
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Seth Jolly @sethkjolly.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
With much thanks to @ndelacerda.bsky.social & a great @chesdata.bsky.social team, we have a new JOP article (early access) comparing expert evaluations of party positions from Europe to Israel to North America to Australia. doi.org/10.1086/736578
doi.org
A global scale of economic left-right party positions: cross-national and cross-expert perceptions of party placements | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Jacob Gunderson @jacobgunderson.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Really pleased to see "Party brands, issue salience, and electoral volatility" published at @jeppjournal.bsky.social . I argue that if electoral volatility increases as parties become more similar, that logic applies to both positional and salience differences. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Party brands, issue salience, and electoral volatility
Rates of vote switching and electoral volatility have risen across Europe. The degree of programmatic differentiation between parties is a crucial determinant of volatility. When parties take simil...
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Thank you :)!
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Thanks, Abby! Looking forward to seeing your new psych work!
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Our findings suggest that affective polarization—not ideological consistency—drives responses to political messaging, with important implications for democratic discourse and political communication. The article is open access and free for anyone who would like to read it! doi.org/10.1007/s111...
doi.org
Affect, Not Ideology: The Heterogeneous Effects of Partisan Cues on Policy Support - Political Behavior
How do individuals process political information? What behavioral mechanisms drive partisan bias? In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which partisan bias is driven by affect or ideology in a thre...
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which partisan bias is driven by affect or ideology. Using advanced machine learning and robust measurement techniques, we found that how much people dislike the other party determines their response to political cues, while ideology plays virtually no role.
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Nicolás de la Cerda @ndelacerda.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Our paper with @samjfuller.bsky.social and @jrametta.bsky.social is finally out at @polbehavior.bsky.social! You can find it here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Affect, Not Ideology: The Heterogeneous Effects of Partisan Cues on Policy Support - Political Behavior
How do individuals process political information? What behavioral mechanisms drive partisan bias? In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which partisan bias is driven by affect or ideology in a thre...
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Chapel Hill Expert Survey @chesdata.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
We are thrilled to anounce the release of the 2024 CHES-Europe at chesdata.eu/2024-chapel-.... As always, the data are freely available on the website. Thank you to the hundreds of experts who share their expertise to make these data possible!
chesdata.eu
2024 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES) — Chapel Hill Expert Survey
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Nicolai Berk @nicolaiberk.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Now available Open Access: 📰 Does (immigration) framing influence public opinion? 🧵 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The Impact of Media Framing in Complex Information Environments
To what extent do news frames influence public opinion? While a large body of experimental research suggests sizable effects, it is unclear how these findings translate to authentically complex inf...
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 11/12/2024
New Cambridge Element 'Cleavage Formation in the 21st Century' by Simon Bornschier, @lhaffert.bsky.social, @siljahausermann.bsky.social, Marco Steenberge & @dpzollinger.bsky.social out now! Read #OpenAccess here: cup.org/3ZLtQ0o #cambridgeelements #politics
Cover image of Cleavage Formation in the 21st Century' by Bornschier et al
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Abby Cassario @abbycassario.bsky.social · 26/10/2024
Now online! journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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