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Mike Makowsky

@mikemakowsky.bsky.social
1.2K followers 621 following 308 posts

Professor of Economics at Clemson University Crime, Political Economy, Religion #COYS Monday ramblings @ economistwritingeveryday.com/author…

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Reposted by Mike Makowsky
Jamal Greene @jamalgreene.bsky.social · 20h
A massive, and massively underrated, threat to a functioning democracy. (gift link) www.nytimes.com/2026/10/11/u...
nytimes.com
Threats of Political Violence Have America’s Elected Officials Living in Fear (Gift Article)
A Times investigation has found that violent threats have become a new normal among public officials, reshaped private lives, cost millions in security and pushed people out of office.
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
NB to those saying universities should appease the administration with some ritual self-denunciation: they are going to keep coming after us no matter what. They will keep fabricating excuses to do so.
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bryan newbold @bnewbold.net · 07/10/2026
ah damn, RIP Margaret Hamilton. she took safety-critical software engineering seriously, and got people to the moon and back. news.mit.edu/2026/margare...
old photos of a woman (Margaret Hamilton) standing next to a tall stack of books (printouts of Apollo space mission software source code)
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 05/10/2026
I often see people argue that clean energy is not reducing emissions, because it just adds to rather than replaces fossil fuels. This argument is deeply misguided – clean energy built since 2005 has displaced 23 billion tons. I dive in over at The Climate Brink:
theclimatebrink.com
What if the world hadn't built wind and solar?
Clean energy does not simply “add to” global energy use; it displaces fossil sources that would otherwise get built.
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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I think about this interview with the distinguished philosopher Conan O'Brien a lot. I actually think this is a healthy way to live your life! www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/a...
Is this how you want to go out, with a show that gets smaller and smaller until it’s gone?

Maybe that’s O.K. I think you have more of a problem with that than I do. [Laughs.] At this point in my career, I could go out with a grand, 21-gun salute, and climb into a rocket and the entire Supreme Court walks out and they jointly press a button, I’m shot up into the air and there’s an explosion and it’s orange and it spells, “Good night and God love.” In this culture? Two years later, it’s going to be, who’s Conan? This is going to sound grim, but eventually, all our graves go unattended.

You’re right, that does sound grim.

Sorry. Calvin Coolidge was a pretty popular president. I’ve been to his grave in Vermont. It has the presidential seal on it. Nobody was there. And by the way, I’m the only late-night host that has been to Calvin Coolidge’s grave. I think that’s what separates me from the other hosts.

I had a great conversation with Albert Brooks once. When I met him for the first time, I was kind of stammering. I said, you make movies, they live on forever. I just do these late-night shows, they get lost, they’re never seen again and who cares? And he looked at me and he said, [Albert Brooks voice] “What are you talking about? None of it matters.” None of it matters? “No, that’s the secret. In 1940, people said Clark Gable is the face of the 20th Century. Who [expletive] thinks about Clark Gable? It doesn’t matter. You’ll be forgotten. I’ll be forgotten. We’ll all be forgotten.” It’s so funny because you’d think that would depress me. I was walking on air after that.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I have multiple students on the market this year who are absolutely excellent. So excellent that they will be bonafide candidates at many, many schools. Some of which refuse to use recruitment websites and instead require bespoke interactions and submissions. I have...feelings about this.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A documentary on Maria Bamford just dropped on Netflix...so I guess that means I'm restarting my Netflix subscription. Damn you, perfectly targeted content!
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Marcello Graziano 🇺🇦 @marcellograz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
About 20 years of law research in Italy about importing criminals b/c the system is just a dead golem.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Direct link to the paper. which you absolutely should take a look at: www.nber.org/papers/w35756
nber.org
Do Social Norms Substitute for Enforcement? Evidence from Public Officials’ Home Purchases in Singapore
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Social norms are necessary, but not sufficient for a functioning society. There are just too many people who figure out that the concept of "being in trouble" isn't real. This, to me, is the principal lesson of the last 10 years from US governance. economistwritingeveryday.com/2026/09/28/s...
economistwritingeveryday.com
Social norms are necessary but not sufficient
This, to me, is the principal lesson of the last 10 years from US governance. The story and data in this paper are based in Singapore, but the lessons are universal. Social norms are critical, but …
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James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The GOP cut funding to the IRS because *audits work* and they fundamentally don't believe rich people should have to play by the rules.
Line chart titled "Revenue per audit," subtitled "In-person audits, 2010-2014." It plots average revenue and average cost per audit by taxpayer income percentile, poorer to richer, from the 0–5th percentile to the top 0.1%. Source: Boning et al. 2023, "A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution."

Across the bottom half of the income distribution, revenue and cost track closely, both around $3,000–$6,000 per audit. Above the median, revenue pulls ahead of cost: about $10,000 vs. $5,000 near the 90th percentile, and about $17,000 vs. $8,000 at the 95th–99th. At the top, revenue jumps to about $31,000 for the 99–99.9th percentile and about $90,000 for the top 0.1%.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
So, yeah, maybe rampant money laundering probably explains why aggressively wrong bets are accruing enormous profits. futurism.com/future-socie...
futurism.com
Polymarket Is Being Used for Massive Money Laundering
A bombshell investigation revealed a massive amount of financial fraud roiling Polymarket, and executives couldn't care less.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
There's plenty of other strange one's too, like the $139,000 won on a $280 wager that resolved against them.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
For example, even they bought their contracts all for 0.9 cents and sold them all for 5 cents, it doesn't explain the ~50x reported return of $200k on 4k.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Can someone explain to me how this account appears to be consistently closing enormous profits on Polymarket wagers that resolved *against* it's wager. polymarket.com/@11122 Even if they sold every contract owned at the peak absolute historical traded value, some of these are literally impossible.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Wabi-sabi was always easy to explain to folks who were into punk rock and indie/mumblecore films, but I think it's genuinely important that it hits the broader zeitgest hard and fast
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
No one has taken a bigger reputational hit from this administration than the on-camera talent in reality & daytime television. Again and again they are revealed to be astonishingly dim and unrepentedly ignorant. Dumb. Just so dumb. No matter how much you try, you just won't believe how dumb they are
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Schrödinger's Sneetch Belly @rtodkelly.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Please know that this is one of my few legitimate areas of actual, high-level professional expertise: Kicking the healthiest people off of a health insurance program will bankrupt it. Not 'could;' not 'might,' not 'probably," but absolutely will, with mathematical certainty.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Congrats to the English Premier League which looked at the 90s NHL/New Jersey Devils and said thats what we want. I look forward to the intro of a two line pass rule
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Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I just got a frantic call from Allison Statham. She's the mother of Haley Oliveaux, the girl Chris Duncan was wrongly convicted of killing. She says the police are now at her door and demanding a DNA sample. They're threatening to arrest her.
radleybalko.substack.com
The framing of Chris Duncan: Part Two
“God doesn’t let innocent babies die for no reason. Somebody has to be punished.”
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Software patents are hard to enforce and obsolete quickly. Hundreds of billions have been invested in AI. If investors anticipate rapid market proliferation of competing AIs before they can recoup investments via monopoly rents, being heavily regulated would, coincidentally, be very attractive
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
People complain about college athletes not actually getting an education, but clearly legacy wealthy donor kids carrying elite degrees without a lick of learning is a far, far bigger problem.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Not on my bingo card.
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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The easiest way to explain the future of US governance for your lifetime and mine is that Trump has taken us from “easy” to “difficult” permanently
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Zach Weinersmith @zachweinersmith.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Is there a political party in favor of reverting the Internet to just being a lot of poorly-indexed Geocities pages? 3 megs per person, free! All social problems solved. If you don't like it, use the newly-revived usenet we'll create.
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Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
It was an MLM convention. Anyone whose Dad ever sold Amway knows what this was. The downlines have tapped out their networks and are dropping off, garages full of product they can’t move and broken homes waiting for them when they get back.
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John Hanger @jrfhanger.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Good morning with good news: US solar deployment surged 45% to 11.4 GW in Q2 2026. Solar, wind & batteries were 91% of new capacity in H1 2026. Wind was 21%, its best H1 since 2022. EIA says solar will be 51%, battery 28%, wind 14% & gas 7% for 2026! pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/09/10/s... #energysky
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Hey #econsky - I've got a grad student whose staggered treatment diff-in-diff event study results are essentially the same if she runs a 2 stage (a la Gardner), stacked EV, Call-Sant, or Sun-Abra saturated model. If you had to pick one to feature as your primary estimation, which would you choose?
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 06/09/2026
A sundowning old man, addicted to AI slop, surrounded by supplicants and apparatchiks, with control over the US nuclear arsenal.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
also, I was reminded that an older (boomer) friend once told me they rooted for the roadrunner because to them the Coyote was the cops. It was Gen X who reconsidered the Coyote as an admirable Sisyphus.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
"Coyote vs Acme" is to "Erin Brockovich" what "Who Framed Roger Rabbit" was to "Chinatown". It was very funny and, as a Gen X'r who always rooted for the Coyote because he never gave up, it suprisingly hit me in the feels a couple times.
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 01/09/2026
Some thoughts on higher ed: 1) Remember, lots of college students go to some type of public college, paying in-state tuition. 2) Overall, prices have slightly declined in the last decade. Yet they were already very high, driven by Baumol's cost disease and reduced subsidies to public colleges.
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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 29/08/2026
USAID was a free space for tankie and tankie adjacent dingbats to score edgy contrarian points by wildly exaggerating how imperialist it was, confident in the belief that it wouldn’t just disappear, except now it has and everyone is uncomfortably looking elsewhere
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
So we mostly agree. Social media can be silly sometimes 😅. As for his first touch, I may be overweighting games in a spurs shirt. We'll see. Hopefully I'm wrong
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
WAIT - was this "Fernandes makes no sense as a 10. Tonali is a game changer." intended as two unrelated sentences? Because that's not how I interpreted it.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
I know his reputation. And I like the idea of him as a quasi 6 whose real contribution is deep lying playmaking, but the press crazy EPL makes a heavy touch really costly. I thought the original sentiment was to move him up bands, and I was expressing why the window for that working is narrow
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
No, but to be fair a 10 these days seems to be a catch all for anyone in the forward band that floats laterally or the central band that presses a lot and then lingers after. I'm not sure what his role is, will, or should be.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Tonali at the 10 requires the team to be fully in sync. His first touch is (currently) quite heavy. That means a lot of 1 touch play and mutual coordinated movement for it to function
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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 29/08/2026
ICE has arrested more than half a million people since President Trump returned to office, and nearly 40 percent do not have a criminal record. As of Aug. 6, ICE had detained more people without a criminal record this year than in all of 2025. wapo.st/4izoaAb
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
As I noted at the end of my post, I still think there is a real chance this was intended to become a Sokal-style hoax economistwritingeveryday.com/2026/08/22/i...
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Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
This University of Chicago business school professor has authored 258 academic papers in 2026 (so far). statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/27/2...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
This University of Chicago business school professor has authored 258 academic papers in 2026 (so far). | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Alex Zalben @azalben.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Dolly Parton, among a thousand other amazing things she did in her life, gifted over 330 million books to kids through her Imagination Library program. Her passing is a tremendous loss to the world, but you can support the program today to keep it going imaginationlibrary.com
imaginationlibrary.com
Dolly Parton's Imagination Library | USA, UK, IE, CA, AU
Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library is a book gifting program that mails free books to children from birth until they begin school in participating areas.
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Dave Lee @davelee.me · 25/08/2026
The Bloomberg obit for Dolly is terrific. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Dolly Parton, Country Queen Who Sang of Strong Women, Dies at 80
Dolly Parton, the effervescent and glamorous “Queen of Country” who emerged from extreme poverty in rural Tennessee to become one of America’s most distinguished songwriters and wealthiest self-made w...
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Nathan Nunn 🇨🇦 🇰🇷 @nathannunn.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Only a few more days left to submit a paper for the NBER Economics of Religion conference --> fall 2026 in San Francisco... www.nber.org/conferences/...
nber.org
Economics of Religion, Fall 2026
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Jess Calarco @jessicacalarco.com · 14/08/2026
Two married professors and their son are being held in ICE detention, despite being legal permanent residents and having no criminal records. All, apparently, because their mom/MIL was a translator for the Iranian hostage takers in 1979, before they were even born. www.thenation.com/article/soci...
thenation.com
One Woman’s Message From the Hell of ICE Detention
My husband, son, and I have been locked up for months—despite being permanent residents with no criminal record. It is an unendurable, unending nightmare.
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Mike Makowsky @mikemakowsky.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Apropos of nothing and a full week late, I'd like it on the record that I was always entertained watching Russell Westbrook play basketball. The OKC years felt like an apology from the gods for making AI's career so short.
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Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
This is, bar none, the stupidest fuckung thing I’ve ever heard. And the idea that there’s nobody in the chain of command - civilian or military - with enough courage to say so is a disgrace.
wapo.st
Navy weighs major warship redesign to match Trump’s preferences
The president wants the new fleet of aircraft carriers to more resemble those from World War II. Such a change could cost billions.
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
You know that source of US power that's lingering due to network effects—so many use the dollar and dollar-denominated assets that it'd be a pain to switch, there's no alternative—the power we haven't managed to throw away yet? Yeah, we want to trash that one too. While calling it "America First."
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Aaron Fritschner @fritschner.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Video of an ICE agent pulling a gun on a wife and mother, who is a US citizen born and raised in the area, near Bailey's Crossroads in Northern Virginia yesterday. Chillingly, they claimed she “almost ran them over” until she told them she had video proving that was a lie.
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Jason Briggeman @jbriggeman.liberalcurrents.com · 08/08/2026
The existence of a "DSA," of a young left, breaks through in old media, and thus to older people, and the existence of a radical left is a legible, understood phenomenon to older people, but insane radicalism among young right-wingers isn't so covered in old media and isn't legible to older people.
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