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Chris Rugaber

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social
1.7K followers 1.2K following 386 posts

Federal Reserve, economy reporter. I root for the economy to do well. Tell me your stories: contact me on Signal at ChrisRugaber.01 and at crugaber@ap.org.

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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Williams and Jefferson were dovish in recent Fed speeches; Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan in remarks this evening was most assuredly not: "Still, I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks ...
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
New AP poll finds broad disapproval of Trump's handling of economy, cost of living: apnews.com/article/trum...
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Trump issues a lengthy response to the IG's report on the Fed's building renovation. He ends with, "No, I do not want this Building named after President Donald J. Trump, ME!"
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
There are many details from the Federal Reserve IG report that didn't make it into our story: For example, its building renovation includes underground space equivalent to 9 football fields (p. 18). Underground construction is expensive but there are height limits in DC. 1/x
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Sen. Elizabeth Warren statement on the IG report on the Fed's building project doesn't hold back:
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Top tech executives after meeting with Trump Tuesday agree to "self-police" their development of AI. The voluntary accord reflects Trump's bullish approach toward AI even as its development has prompted anxieties among Americans and backlash against data centers. apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Boston Fed president Susan Collins says the Iran war helped tip her in favor of an interest rate hike last week. She also penciled in one more hike this year and none in 2027, she said in an interview. apnews.com/article/infl...
apnews.com
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-goolsbee-federal-reserve-rates-5acf1f7e4f38ac77329fa0b9aaddd30f
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Federal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth apnews.com/article/fede...
apnews.com
Federal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth
President Donald Trump has renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve after it hiked its benchmark interest rate Wednesday, but the Fed matters less than broader economic trends when it comes to longe...
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Help an econ reporter out here: Who is doing all this spending? Clearly most from upper-income consumers, but consumer sentiment surveys are all gloomy, and then we get a big 1.2% jump in retail sales this month! apnews.com/article/reta...
apnews.com
https://apnews.com/article/retail-inflation-consumer-sentiment-economy-474ed13de492362589405a47ec044d29
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Capital Economics on retail sales:
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Warsh likely to side with financial markets over Trump as Fed rate hike expected apnews.com/article/fede...
apnews.com
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Today's producer price index shows big price increases in air fares, hospital inpatient care, and outpatient care, which will push up the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Could make rate hike more likely. apnews.com/article/prod...
apnews.com
https://apnews.com/article/producer-prices-inflation-economy-iran-66d1591b979271ee7b79b113d715f6ef
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
WASHINGTON (AP) — In the real world, President Donald Trump is struggling to stop inflation, rout the Iranian government and restore American manufacturing with tariffs. However, it’s a different story in the fantastical vision that he shares with supporters .... apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Gotta love that “Sorry!”
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterates her support for hiking rates in LinkedIn post, just before blackout period (when Fed officials don't comment for 10 days before a meeting). She dissented last time and still hears from businesses seeking higher rates: www.linkedin.com/posts/beth-h...
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
As if next week's inflation report wasn't already high stakes enough, Fed's Waller saying his decision whether to support a hike or not will largely depend on it: apnews.com/article/infl...
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Reposted by Chris Rugaber
New York Fed @newyorkfed.org · 02/09/2026
New York Fed president John C. Williams spoke with CNBC this morning. Watch his interview: nyfed.org/4ylsJmG
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Warsh's speech has raised expectations for a rate hike in September, setting the Fed chair up for potential questions about his inflation-fighting commitment if the central bank doesn't hike then. Our takeaways from the Fed's Jackson Hole conference: apnews.com/article/infl...
apnews.com
Warsh raises stakes for Fed's next meeting and other takeaways from Jackson Hole conference
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh provided his most detailed insights yet on how he views the central bank's fight against inflation in a high-profile speech an at annual economic conference in…
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Ahead of Bessent's news conference today: apnews.com/article/iran...
apnews.com
Iran's rial currency hits new record low as US prepares to announce more sanctions
Iran’s currency has hit a record low as Washington prepares to announce new sanctions. The U.S. has said the sanctions would add further pressure on an economy already battered by previous ones and…
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
It's fascinating to me to see all the praise for Warsh "finally" letting bond markets allegedly price off economic fundamentals, rather than Fed guidance, and yet the administration that appointed him doesn't seem to like those prices.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Our AP explainer on what’s going on in Treasury markets: Why Treasury Secretary Bessent's moves to calm the bond market haven't worked so far apnews.com/article/rate...
apnews.com
Why Treasury Secretary Bessent's moves to calm the bond market haven't worked so far
Interest rates rebounded Thursday despite efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to put a lid on longer-term borrowing costs.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
This seems overly pessimistic, but revealing about how Americans see inflation eroding their finances, despite mild cooling in price gains (from UMich consumer sentiment survey):
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Interesting take from the inflation report: (h/t Bill Adams at Fifth Third Commerical Bank):
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
The Fed will hold a press conference next week after the Wednesday meeting, even as Warsh has committed to having them after every meeting:
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Here's one Wall Street bank's take on whose dots are whose in the latest Fed SEP. Feel like Hammack or Logan could be the top dot, rather than Schmid, but any make sense (from Deutsche Bank):
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Gas up 16 cents in past week, diesel up 26 cents, while both are now up slightly from a month ago. Going to reverse the recent disinflation we've seen if it continues.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack out with hawkish statement today on LinkedIn. With Logan, perhaps two dissents at the July meeting in favor of a hike?: tinyurl.com/mpuda5hp
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan not convinced by June CPI, and makes a forward-looking case for rate hikes: "...one month of relief is not enough. ... Unfortunately, inflation does not appear to be headed sustainably back all the way to 2 percent." www.dallasfed.org/news/speeche...
dallasfed.org
Remarks on inflation, employment and monetary policy
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan shares her views on the economy and monetary policy outlook.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Federal Reserve research note finds that 90% of AI equipment is sourced from overseas -- specifically East Asia -- and its persistence could worsen inflation through rising import prices: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
federalreserve.gov
Technology Shocks, the AI Boom, and the U.S. Current Account
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Our take on Fed Chair Warsh's hearing today: apnews.com/article/fede...
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Warsh, while avoiding forward guidance, is sketching out what Fed-watchers would call a "reaction function": The Fed needs to respond to inflation when it broadens from just a few categories, such as oil and gas, to more generalized price increases: "That's something we can do something about."
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Warsh at Senate hearing: Business investment driven by AI has "contributed mightily" to economic growth in the past 12 months. Yet with much (most?) of the chips, computer equipment, etc. coming from overseas, its impact is likely lesser than has been advertised.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Warsh on day two of hearings, before Senate, on recent inflation readings: "Any central banker would be happy to have data going in the right direction." Yet these are "imperfect measures of underlying inflation" and his task force will examine new sources.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I am reliably informed that Powell often did testify for three hours or more, which makes sense, particularly in House given committee's size.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Former Fed chair Jerome Powell sought to keep congressional hearings to two hours. Warsh is well into hour three, in the only example so far of added communication compared to his predecessor and perhaps a sign of deference to Congress.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
New Fed Chair Warsh on AI says he doesn't believe in the "lump of labor fallacy," that there are a fixed number of jobs and new technology will only subtract from them. In congressional hearing, he notes that Internet has created "1.5 million jobs" as Uber and Lyft drivers.
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AMPTsuper @amptsuper.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
"Just four large tech companies — Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft — are expected to invest $720 billion this year, mostly on data centers." apnews.com/article/ai-i... AP News By @chrisrugaber.bsky.social
apnews.com
Massive AI buildout poses latest inflation threat as consumers pay more for laptops and electricity
American consumers — and the Federal Reserve — are being hit with another high-cost headache. The gusher of investment in data centers — likely topping $700 billion this year — to power artificial int...
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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
ok, we found the reason for Anti-World Cup Effect now!!! It's Boston's fault (or Scotland's fault!)
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Well, if the bars didn't order enough beer for all the Scottish World Cup fans in Boston, maybe they didn't hire enough workers either. (Jobs report shows loss of 61,000 positions in restaurants, bars, and hotels nationwide last month).
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Can Warsh avoid hiking rates to fight inflation? He has been talking tough about "price stablity" but is cagey about the Fed's next moves. His comments in Portugal Wednesday suggest he is still all-in on AI as ultimately a disinflationary force. But ...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
WASHINGTON (AP) - New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday that the central bank would remain independent and seek to bring down inflation, likely foreclosing the rate cuts President Donald Trump has sought. @chrisrugaber.bsky.social
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
"While the decision is a boost for the Fed, it does leave Cook vulnerable to further attempts by the Trump administration to fire her. Trump said on his social media site, Truth Social, that 'we will take appropriate action immediately' to remove Cook." apnews.com/article/fede...
apnews.com
What the Supreme Court's ruling in the Cook case means for Federal Reserve independence
The Supreme Court on Monday said the Federal Reserve, unlike any other agency in Washington, has a measure of independence from the presidency and day-to-day politics.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
My read on SCOTUS Cook decision is that it bolsters Fed independence by declaring for-cause protections for Fed governors Constitutional, but still leaves Cook herself vulnerable because it appears to set low bar for the process she is owed and forecloses strictest reading of for-cause protection.
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari says he has switched forecast from one cut in March to one rate hike now. Says they could crush inflation but don't want to hurt hiring: "How do we get inflation back down in a reasonable period of time without doing a lot of damage to the labor market?"
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
New Fed chair Kevin Warsh will participate in the ECB's Sintra forum (their version of Jackson Hole) July 1. Will be a panel discussion, which Powell did several times. Can he get away with just saying, "We have a task force for that?" Livestream: www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/in...
ecb.europa.eu
European Central Bank
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the…
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AMPTsuper @amptsuper.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
"Consumer prices rose 4.1% in May from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Thursday, the largest annual increase since April 2023." apnews.com/article/infl... By @chrisrugaber.bsky.social AP News
apnews.com
Key inflation gauge jumps to 3-year high in latest sign of affordability challenges
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose to a new three-year high in May as gas prices peaked, a sign rising costs could pose political problems for President Trump as midterm elections ne...
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
This morning's report on consumer spending and the PCE price index shows that on a monthly basis Americans' inflation-adjusted, after-tax incomes rose in May for the first time in four months. ("Real DPI" in table below). Healthy spending too:
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
The Trump administration seems to be backing off demands for rate cuts, and potentially even from hopes for flat rates. This is from Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta, quoting Treas Sec'y Bessent form last night:
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
ICYMI: Big AP investigative story on illegal drugs and the DEA is centered in ... Albuquerque, of all places. apnews.com/article/dea-...
apnews.com
Staggering amounts of fentanyl hit streets as the DEA watched and took no action, records show
According to current and former DEA agents and records reviewed by The Associated Press, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration allowed hundreds of thousands of fentanyl pills to hit the streets of…
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Below is the Fed's first post-meeting statement, issued by Greenspan Feb.4, 1994, and Warsh's last week. Back to the future!
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